Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds split 25% domestically and 25% foreign.
Any pension fund that holds government debt in size and thinks it will return to normal is delusional, as I mentioned back in 2021. They have faith that yields will recover when that is simply not the case. The entire idea of pensions has been set around the average 8 % return in interest rates, but it has been pension funds that are primarily the cause of lower interest rates, not the central banks. The number of pension funds out there created a bid for long‑term bonds.
Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies. The Bank of Japan owns over 50% of JGBs, making it the largest single holder, which has created a rigged market. Yields have been artificially lowered, and capital allocation has been distorted for years. Pension funds, banks, and insurance companies have been locked into JGBs, not because they want yield, but because regulation and policy have given them no choice.
As for Japanese pensions, the large aging population and shrinking workforce have led to fewer taxpayers capable of supporting this growing demographic. GPIF began moving into foreign assets to escape the BOJ’s doomed policy of negative interest rate,s but it is trapped overall. Japan looks to GPIF as a sign of economic confidence, and these losses are a warning.
Socrates has issued bearish long-term outlooks on the Japanese bond market and warns of sovereign debt crises that will directly impact pension systems. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) pay absolutely nothing, and yet GPIF is required to hold a portion. When there is no buyer left, the burden will fall on the Bank of Japan, and that is simply unsustainable. As the computer has warned, the sovereign debt crisis will begin in Japan before spreading like a contagion.
Posted originally on CTH on July 13, 2025 | Sundance
Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Richard Blumental appear on CBS with the always dramatic Margaret Brennan to discuss what President Trump is going to do against Russia and President Vladimir Putin tomorrow. Senator Lindsey Graham is very happy with the plans President Trump will outline tomorrow; very happy.
The action appears to center around the confiscation of Russian assets, Russian central bank reserves held in European bonds. The money belongs to the people of Russia in the form of bonds previously purchased by Russia using a system that many nations follow, including all those nations who buy U.S. treasuries.
If the USA or Europe end up confiscating those funds, the only thing this action would prove is that the western financial system cannot be trusted. Many Nations are already reluctant, some fleeing from EU/U.S treasuries as a result of this threat, and we are seeing changes in the bond rates as a result. Senator Graham doesn’t care about the strategic financial interests of the USA, he’s more concerned about fighting Russia regardless of long-term ramifications. WATCH:
[TRANSCRIPT] – MARGARET BRENNAN: Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation. We have a lot to get to this morning. So, let’s begin with Senator Lindsey Graham in Clemson, South Carolina, and Senator Richard Blumenthal in Bridgeport, Connecticut. They both just returned from Europe, where they met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Good morning to you both, Senators.
SENATOR RICHARD BLUMENTHAL: Good morning.
SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM: Good Morning.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Graham, I want to start with you. Russia is escalating. They’re not ending this war in Ukraine. NATO’s Secretary General is going to be here, in Washington, this week and will be meeting with President Trump, who is, according to our reporting, considering fresh funding for Ukraine. That would be the first time since he’s taken office. What do you know about what is coming?
SEN. GRAHAM: Well, I don’t want to get ahead of the President, but I’m having dinner, along with Senator Blumenthal and other senators, with Secretary General Mark Rutte, tomorrow night. A turning point regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is coming. For months, President Trump has tried to entice Putin to the peace table. He’s put tariffs against countries that allow fentanyl to come in our country. Other bad behavior. He’s left the door open regarding Russia. That door is about to close. Dick and I have got 85 co-sponsors in the United States Senate for congressional sanctions with a sledgehammer available to President Trump to go after Putin’s economy, and all those countries who prop up the Putin war machine. China, India, and Brazil buy oil and petroleum products and other goods from Russia. That’s the money Putin uses to prosecute the war. And this congressional package that we’re looking at would give President Trump the ability to impose 500% tariffs on any country that helps Russia, and props up Putin’s war machine. He can dial it up or down. He can go to 0%, to 500%. He has maximum flexibility. But we’re going after the people who keep Putin in business and additional sanctions on Russia itself. This is truly a sledgehammer available to President Trump to end this war.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Blumenthal, on those sanctions, the President said he expects the Senate to pass this measure you put together. And he described being able to terminate it as totally at my option. It, very respectfully, lets the President do whatever he wants, and decide whether or not to exercise it. I know that has raised some concerns among your fellow Democrats, like Senators Kane and Senator Coons. How do you assure them that this is as tough as you promise?
SEN. BLUMENTHAL: This has to be a critical moment for these sanctions and bringing down this sledgehammer at this moment was emphasized by all of the European allies who were at the meeting that Senator Graham and I attended in Europe. They are absolutely in solidarity. One after another, in that closed-door setting, expressed the view that the sanctions have to be tough and rigorous to change behavior. And so, the waiver language that we will have in this bill is very much alike the provisions that have existed in past, similar measures that give the President the ability to act in the national security, but also provide congressional oversight. And, I think that kind of assurance to my Democratic colleagues is very important. But, what is most important, I think, at this moment, is our unity. Senator Graham and I, Republican and Democrat, coming together, the European leaders with diverse views, also in unity. And we want to make use of the seized assets, again, in a unified way. I think a multi-faceted approach here is the only way to bring Putin to the table, because he’s a thug. He understands only force.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Just to follow up on that, the- the seized assets. There’s what, $300 billion in Europe. There’s about $5 billion here, in the United States. Do you get the sense that the President is going to be willing to tap that, and that the European leaders are going to be willing to seize and use that money?
SEN. BLUMENTHAL: Part of the plan that I think will be sought in this meeting involving the Secretary General is for Ukraine to be given assets by NATO and their purchasing those military assets from the United States. But the seized property, the seized assets from Russia, can be accessed by the Europeans. They are devising a plan to do it, at least for a part of those assets, billions of dollars, and the interest that is derived from them. Very, very important resources for Ukraine. And the $5 billion that the United States has also could be accessed, and I think it’s time to do it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’ll be talking to one of the congressmen who put together that law to be able to seize those assets later in the program. Senator Graham, I want to ask you on the battlefield, and when it comes to weapons. CBS’ Jim Laporta has learned a recent defense intelligence assessment shows Ukraine’s shortfall in artillery and in drones will lead to marked Russian territorial gains in 2026, with Russia gaining seven to one firepower superiority by this winter. How can you get them what they need if Congress will not approve, in the House, any new funding? Is it what Senator Blumenthal just laid out?
SEN. GRAHAM: Well, just stay tuned for tomorrow’s announcement. The idea of America selling weapons to help Ukraine is very much in play. We’ve given Ukraine a lot. We give them the money, we give them military aid. We now have a minerals agreement with Ukraine that’s worth trillions of dollars. So, I don’t want to get ahead of the President, but stay tuned about seized assets. The Europeans want to limit the interest on the assets to go to Ukraine. Secretary Bessent wants to go further. Stay tuned about a plan to go after the seized assets more aggressively. Stay tuned for a plan where America will begin to sell to our European allies tremendous amounts of weapons that can benefit Ukraine. Putin has calculated that we would get tired, and Europe would get weary. He made a huge mistake. NATO is bigger and stronger, and we’re more committed to ever to make sure he does not take Ukraine by force. So, Congress is on the verge of passing the most consequential sanction package in the history of the- of the country. It will give President Trump tools he doesn’t have today, a literal sledgehammer. And the big offenders here is China, India, and Brazil. India buys oil from Russia cheap and resells it. That’s despicable. I’ve talked to President Trump. He said last week, it’s time to move. He’s tried to entice Putin to the table. But my goal is to end this war, and the only way you’re going to end this war is to get people who prop up Putin make them choose between the American economy and helping Putin. And you can only have one negotiator, and that’s going to be President Trump, with maximum flexibility to end this war. China, India, and Brazil, you’re about to get hurt big time if you keep helping Putin.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But Senator, respectfully, the President’s rhetoric has changed this week on Russia. He is making clear his patience is very thin. But, he’s got, right now, at his fingertips, just short of $4 billion in presidential drawdown authority. He doesn’t need to ask Congress. He doesn’t need to ask the Europeans for that money. He’s got it if he wants to tap it. Wouldn’t it be a stronger sign if he just sent those weapons or surged them?
SEN. GRAHAM: Well, the $4 billion and not nearly enough. I expect him to exercise that draw-down authority. But the game, regarding Putin’s invasion of Russia, is about to change. I expect, in the coming days, you will see weapons flowing at a record level to help Ukraine defend themselves. I expect, in the coming days, that there will be tariffs and sanctions available to President Trump he has never had before. I expect, in the coming days, more support from Europe regarding the efforts to help Ukraine. Putin made a miscalculation here. For six months, President Trump tried to entice Putin to the table. The attacks have gone up, not down. One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump. And you just watch, in the coming days and weeks, there’s going to be a massive effort to get Putin to the table. And to those who are helping him, China, buying cheap Russian oil and having no accountability, those days are about over.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Blumenthal, on- on Ukraine, North Korea has been sending troops, as you know, to fight for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s top diplomat was just meeting with Kim Jong Un. We know that the missile technology Russia is providing them is, sort of, their payment for sending bodies to fight. Is that going to make a measurable difference in the North Korean nuclear program? Is there more of a threat today to the US because of it?
SEN. BLUMENTHAL: The threat of cooperation on that score in sending missile technology to North Korea, as well as support for Iran, that potentially could come from Russia, is a major piece of evidence why we need to be strong with our allies against this axis. It still exists. The success against Iran’s nuclear program ought not to make us complacent about the dangers of proliferating nuclear arms. And, absolutely, yes, we should be coming down stronger, not only on Russia but North Korea, and our plan has to be to deter this kind of nuclear arms cooperation, which is why our working with our allies is so important. As they went around the room, these are the major European leaders, all of them, assembled together last Thursday in Rome, thanking us for being there, Senator Graham and myself, and General Kellogg, representing Trump. This moment of unity must be seized, and the timing is absolutely critical. President Zelensky has been robust and stalwart, but his people are being killed by bombs and drones. Children kidnapped. We need to, really, express the strength of the United States, because only strength can get Putin to the table.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Graham, on another topic here, you have been an advocate for the allies of the United States who were left behind in Afghanistan following that chaotic 2021 withdrawal by the last administration. On Friday, the State Department laid off the personnel in the department that helps place those refugees and other allies in the United States. Two sources with direct knowledge told CBS that there are about 1,400 Afghan allies with connections to the Pentagon, with connections to US intelligence, and they’re stuck there. They don’t know what’s happening next. Can you stop them from being sent back to the Taliban?
SEN. GRAHAM: Yeah, I don’t think there’s any desire by anybody to send people who helped us in Afghanistan back to the Taliban control. That’s not going to happen. As to trimming up the State Department, if you’re telling me we can’t reduce the number of people working in the State Department and still run it effectively, I don’t buy that. We can do both.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, there are some questions about who’s going to actually help prevent them from going back to Afghanistan, which is why I was asking you that if you’re going to advocate on their behalf. Senator Blumenthal, you sit on the Judiciary Committee, I believe. CBS has reported yesterday that the Attorney General, Pam Bondi, fired 20 DOJ employees who worked on the classified documents cases and the January 6 investigations. There are more firings expected. These are career officers and lawyers who don’t pick their assignments. They’re handed out to them. Is there anything that Congress can do to protect some of these civil servants?
SEN. BLUMENTHAL: Margaret, that’s a really important question, because Pam Bondi has so politicized, and weaponized the Department of Justice and now firing these career professionals who have devoted their lives to the Department of Justice, it’s only one facet of the continuing politicization. And, yes, Congress ought to be investigating. The Judiciary Committee ought to begin, right away, its inquiry. But, I’m calling for an Inspector General investigation, not only of these firings, but also of the dropping of a prosecution into the Utah physician who was mid-trial on charges of conspiracy, fraud against the government, in connection with a COVID vaccine scheme, apparently, at the behest of politicians who were deeply angry about the MAGA issue there. And, I believe strongly that now Congress must investigate
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Graham, do you want to quickly respond to those allegations of politicized handling up at the Justice Department?
SEN. GRAHAM: Yeah, y’all missed a lot. The Justice Department was used to destroy President Trump, his family, and tried to change the election by bringing a bunch of B-S charges against him for years. We’re going to clean that mess up. As to Pam Bondi, I have all the confidence in the world she will do her job. And if somebody has been terminated, they have rights under civil service law to say it was wrongfully done. But, I’m almost amused at the idea that people are now suddenly worried about politicization of the Justice Department, while everybody sat quiet for all those years. Literally, the Justice Department, under Biden, tried to change the election by prosecuting Trump based on a bunch of B-S.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, there are mass firings, which is why I was asking you about them, sir. Senators, thank you for joining us for a bipartisan interview, up until that last section. Appreciate it. Face the Nation will be back in a minute. Stay with us.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.
The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.
Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.
Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.
2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.
Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.
Posted originally on Jul 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
I have written about how Rome fell, and just by mapping the population of Rome, you can see the fate of many current nations and states operating under poor fiscal policies – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to integration, they sought to implement it by sheer force.
You can’t legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. Jobs are created by the wealthy who become wealthy because of their innovative vision – i.e., Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and so on. Henry Ford’s vision created the auto industry. Bill Gates, in bringing DOS to life, created the personal computer industry, as did Steve Jobs. How much employment did just those three men create? Far more than government.
Government creates nothing to advance society or to increase GDP in any positive manner. It is a natural human response not to pay taxes and this is why taxes have been the number one reason for civil war and revolution. It is always resentful to pay taxes, whereas giving money to help someone is rewarding. Taxes tend to support politicians and their pensions. If they must sell some assets to take a government job, it is tax-free. Few leave government without growing their net worth far beyond what one could typically earn through income or investments.
The great welfare state has produced a large segment of fraud and kept many people down since they would rather be taken care of than work to take care of themselves. Even in prison, many people are sentenced to 10 or 20 years, and the first thing they do is commit a crime to get back in, where they do not have to pay taxes, and they are taken care of. You destroy people’s lives for such a long period for non-violent crimes, and then expect them to have a fulfilling life thereafter?
In the United States, we have witnessed a significant shift in the population since the COVID-19 pandemic. People are continuing to flee authoritarian states with high taxes like California, New Jersey, and New York in favor of financially friendly states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
New Zealand once had a program where if a woman was pregnant and she had no idea who the father was, the government provided everything right down to a free home. They ended up with the highest percentage of women who had no idea who the father of their child was. Naturally, they did know the identity of the biological father, and he would jump out the back window when the social worker visited. They got everything for free then.
Any of these types of programs employ a divide-and-conquer strategy. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government doesn’t first take from somebody else. When you reach a state where 50% of the people depend upon the other 50% to pay their bills, you end up with class warfare and bitterness. This is the cycle where civilization rises, peaks, and then crashes when government becomes the enemy of the people.
Posted originally on Jul 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Banking has existed from the earliest of times and has taken many forms, from safe deposit storage, money changers, merchants with the ability to move money internationally, to money lenders. Some people wrongly assume that they can eliminate the business cycle by eliminating fractional banking. They assume that it will be possible to match lenders and borrowers to maturity contracts. They do not comprehend that this is the line of thinking that always leads to authoritarianism, all the way to communism.
The problem that will emerge from matching lenders and borrowers to a maturity contract is that the boom-bust cycle will still exist. There will always be the perpetual rise and fall in asset values caused by other factors (including human nature), not least of which will be changes in technology, civil unrest, and war that can alter capital flows. History offers a catalogue of solutions. All we need to test such an idea is to open the books.
People assume the cause of the business cycle is the fractional banking issue, as if that were eliminated, then you would flat-line the business cycle, creating utopia. Be very careful. This was the goal of Karl Marx as well. So the starting point is a basic question. Has fractional banking always existed? NO! Since the answer is no, then did the boom and bust cycle in banking exist even without fractional banking? The stark answer – YES.
In ancient times, financial panics also occurred without fractional banking. In Athens during 354BC, people borrowed money from the Temple unbeknownst to everyone else. They were speculating in real estate. The real estate market collapsed without fractional banking, and then it was exposed that the money was borrowed behind the curtain, so to speak, from the temple. Corrupt priests had all this money donated to Athena. She obviously was very frugal since she never seemed to go on a spending spree to buy shoes, owls, or spears. She wore a helmet so she didn’t need a hairdresser. So the priests could keep their hands out of the treasury. Oops – they were caught lending it out to their buddies for spare change. There was no fractional banking involved. They had the money and lent it to their buddies. The assets collapse because, as always, the mood of people changes with the seasons.
Fast forward to the 17th century, and we find the very same scheme played out by politicians. There was the collapse of Wisselbank in Amsterdam, where people had deposited their money and assumed the bank was strictly a safekeeping facility. They offered no loans and paid no interest. Little did they know, the government was using their deposits to fund its own trading.
The Wisselbank was founded in 1609. Upon first opening an account, a depositor paid a fee of ten guilders, three guilders, and three stuivers for each additional account. Two stuivers were paid for each transaction, except those of less than three hundred guilders, for which six stuivers were paid, in order to discourage the multiplicity of small transactions. A person who neglected to balance his account twice in the year forfeited 25 guilders. A person who ordered a transfer for more than what was upon his account, was obliged to pay three per cent for the sum overdrawn. The bank made further profit by selling foreign coin and bullion, which fell to it by the expiration of receipts, and by selling bank money at five percent and buying it at four percent. These sources of revenue were more than enough to pay for the wages of bank officers and defray the expense of management. (Adam Smith)
In 1602, the United East India Company (VOC) was formed from six trading companies in the Netherlands and granted a trade monopoly over the Indies. The bank was administered by a committee of city government officials concerned to keep its affairs secret. It initially operated on a deposit-only basis, but by 1657, it was allowing depositors to overdraw their accounts, and lending large sums to the Municipality of Amsterdam and the United East Indies Company (Dutch East India Company). Initially, this was kept confidential, but it had become public knowledge by 1790. The City of Amsterdam took over direct control in 1791 as a bailout, before finally closing it in 1819.
There is plenty of history of banking BEFORE fractional banking. Sorry, but that did not stop banking panics nor did it stop the business cycle with the boom and bust events. The Tulip Bubble was not leveraged with fractional banking. No matter what, the boom and bust cycle is driven by human nature. We do have a tendency to change our minds about everything from fashion to money.
The idea of matching lenders and borrowers sounds appealing. However, that will not eliminate the cycle. I can find no instance of such a flat line except during a Dark Age where there was no banking, private ownership, or any real economy. Coinage during the period is rare and is typically confined to the region where it was struck, demonstrating the lack of an economy or circulation due to trade.
Posted originally on Jul 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You said that the German Nazi Party was raising money selling bonds in the United States before they invaded Poland in 1939. When I asked AI, if the Nazis sold bonds in the US it said “No, the Nazi regime did not sell sovereign bonds in the United States after coming to power in 1933 and before the outbreak of WWII in 1939.” So, who is correct? You or AI?
ANSWER: From what I am being told, a problem is surfacing with ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. The development of language models to engage in AI is presenting a problem. They are learning from the WEB, correct. However, they are not necessarily capable of verifying what is true or false. Here is a Conversion Office for German Foreign Debts $100 Bond (Nazi Government sold in the United States) into the New York 1936. I have the physical evidence that suggests that the answer you received was incorrect.
British Journal of Educational Technology (BJET) recently explained that “no research has yet examined how epistemic beliefs and metacognitive accuracy affect students’ actual use of ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. ” For those unfamiliar with this arcane term of philosophy, linguistics, and rhetoric, epistemic, it traces back to the knowledge of the Greeks. That Greek word is from the verb epistanai, meaning “to know or understand.”
I try to be accurate, and if I state something as fact, I have generally verified it versus making a statement of just an “opinion,” perhaps derived from a belief. Nobody is perfect – not even ChatGPT.
Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
They say it takes a generation to reshape the way a nation views its military allegiance. Germany dwindled its military capacity significantly after its defeat in the last world war, wearing their loss as a badge of shame. Neither the people nor the government wanted to reinvigorate Germany’s military power after the destructive nation building and expansion under the Third Reich. The times have changed, as they always do, and Germany is now on the defensive. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz envisions forming the largest armyin Europe.
“Building up our military is our top priority,” said Merz. “From now on, the federal government will provide the military with as much money as it needs to ensure it becomes Europe’s strongest armed force. We are Europe’s most populous country and Europe’s biggest economy, and nothing less should be expected from us. Our partners not only expect this — they demand it.”
Merz stated that Germany will spend 3.5% of its GDP on military defense over the next decade, placing spending as a percentage on par with the United States. Germany already found a loophole to spend on defense indefinitely after declaring an emergency and deciding to ignore prior military spending limits. The Germany government now plans to spend $400 billion on defense alone through 2029. Simultaneously, the nation will not cut social programs or readjust its overall budget as a constitutional amendment now permits lawmakers to bypass the debt brake and borrow in perpetuity without calculating that spending in the federal budget.
Germany believes it is on the right side of history due to its backing of Ukraine, the world’s favorite underdog. A refugee favorite, the nation has allowed 1.2 million Ukrainians into its borders since the war began. The nation hit a record-high for population growth in 2022 due to the number of migrants it has accepted.
Now, Germany provides more funding to Ukraine than any other European nation, and is third globally behind the US and UK. Merz has been an outspoken critic of the United States under Donald Trump due to his reluctance to support Ukraine, and he believes he build an iron-clad military so powerful that the entirety of Europe will no longer need to depend on America for defense.
The Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, currently has around 262,000 troops, but it would like to boldly increase its size with 200,000 additional troops and will spend €100 billion in a special fund to modernize its military. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in May 2024 that he was “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.”While there is no conscription, Germans are required to register for a potential draft before they turn 18. By June of 2024, I was informed by multiple personal sources that this registration had been extended to include women. One reliable source informed me that her female family friend was sent a notice to register at 59 years old.
Germany is the core foundation of the entire European economy. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. Germany’s trajectory toward war is not driven by a public desire for conflict, but by economic, political, and geopolitical pressures—and especially by its entanglement with the European Union, its energy crisis and the collapse of fiscal discipline across Europe. Net Zero initiatives and cutting off cheap Russian gas drastically hurt the German economy by raising energy costs and stifling its auto market. The entire European Union is collapsing, with Germany at the center as the bloc’s primary financier. The EU needs war to maintain the illusion of control, and Germany must be at the frontlines as the bloc’s richest nation.
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