Bessent Disagrees on US Credit Downgrade


Posted originally on May 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

ScottBessent

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rebuked Moody’s lowered rating of US credit from AAA to AA1. “First of all, I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator, and I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies,” Bessent said. “Larry Summers and I don’t agree on everything, but he’s said that when they downgraded the U.S. in 2011. So it’s a lagging indicator.”

The US Treasury Secretary must maintain that the nation’s economy is in sound health. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen voiced similar sentiments last year when Fitch downgraded the US credit, calling the move “arbitrary.” “I strongly disagree with Fitch’s decision. The change announced today is arbitrary and based on outdated data,” Yellen insisted. She then went on to insist the federal government had the funds to back two wars in Ukraine and Palestine, as there is no spending limit for governments.

In 2011, Standard & Poor cut its rating also after a debt ceiling crisis caused by politicians. The global markets felt the impact of that news. Fitch has been warning of a possible downgrade since May 2023, due to the massive debt burden and political mismanagement. The White House continued its spending spree and our politicians could not agree on a limit for the debt ceiling. The warnings were there.

The difference this time is that Moody’s has not downgraded US credit since 1917. The issue is not consumer confidence in the US or even investor confidence. The primary concern is CONFIDENCE in the system itself that has clearly been failing. Over 70% of US debt is short-term, and Washington has been unable to pass or adhere to a budget. The Democrats are saying that this is reason to collect more tax revenue, while the Republicans aim to curb government spending. Both fail to realize that they are too late either way, and the system itself must change because the problem cannot be fixed with the same line of thinking that created this disaster in the first place.

Capital is not going to flee the US because of Moody’s downgrade. Where else would it go?

Ratings agencies are indeed reactionary rather than proactive. The debt crisis has been looming for a long time. The Economic Confidence Model turns again in late 2026, and we are watching the beginning of the end for government debt as a trustworthy asset class.

No Tax on Tips Act


Posted originally on May 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Waiters

The “No Tax on Tips Act” passed in the Senate after a unanimous vote. At last, the Senate can agree upon one item. The legislation permits a tax deduction worth up to $25,000 for tips for workers earning under $160,000 as of 2025, with the figure expected to increase over the years along with inflation. The bill comes with a major caveat.

The measure only applies to cash tips. It is well-known that service workers often underreport or fail to report their cash earnings. There is a high probability that this measure is to ensure that workers properly report their earnings to the IRS to ensure the government can track every passing penny.

The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) conducted a study in 2018 that found 52% of overall tips went unreported, costing the IRS an estimated $44 billion annually. The study found that personal services and food services workers—those who rely on cash tips—were most likely to in incompliance. These are the workers who are often paid under minimum wage and derive the majority of their income from tipping culture. The IRS believes that tips account for 10% of the total individual income tax underreporting gap.

The previous law required tips above $20 per month to be reported. Failure to report could equate to a 50% penalty of Social Security and Medicare taxes owed on the underreported tips. Yet, it is extremely rare for the IRS to actually hunt down individuals who fail to report. The same TIGTA report found that only 34 tip examinations were completed in FY2026, although the IRS believed 15,000 employers withheld $6.3 billion in tip income from the government. From 2013 to 2027, the IRS only completed 262 tip examinations and those mainly occurred on a voluntary basis.

Ride-share workers and others in the service industry who have gone digital will not benefit from this legislation. Tipping culture in America has crept up throughout the years, with the average tip amount coming in at 20%. Americans are asked to tip on everything with the introduction of POS monitors that often ask for a tip when service was not provided.

A recent survey found that up to 90% of Americans feel tipping culture is “out of control,” with 66% holding a negative view of the tip system. Around 83% would like to see a man on mandatory service fees. Three in five Americans (60%) believe employers have shifted the responsibility of employee compensation onto the customer. Still, only 25% of Americans felt that tips should be taxes. Tipping culture is quite different outside America where employees are paid living wages. Every European I know who has visited the States was shocked to see how much they were expected to add to their final bill.

Overall, the new legislation is not exactly a ban on taxed tips. The legislation would have banned taxes on all tips if they were truly concerned with service workers struggling with the cost of living. The Trump Administration has still failed to uphold its promise to remove taxes on overtime pay. Governments are consistently on a hunt for taxation, and this measure will simply allow the government to accurately track cash in circulation.

Qatar Spent Millions Funding Conservative Media This Year in Advance of President Trump Visit


Posted originally on CTH on May 21, 2025 | Sundance

Put this into two files. (1) The confirmation file that it’s “always about the money;” and (2) The ‘things that make other things’ suddenly make sense file.  Also, I wouldn’t suggest doing much with this, other than making a mental note for y’all deep weeds walkers; after all, we are not much fun at partisan parties when we don’t pretend the corruption gig is one-sided.

Readers here will know well that since the beginning of this year I have asked what’s going on with conservative media and this sudden pro-Qatar stuff they’ve been pushing. [Tucker example and more here]

Well, apparently long before the White House announced a historic ‘first ever’ trip to Qatar, the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani began telling their lobbyists in DC to reach out to conservative media influencers with lucrative payments to shape a favorable pro-Qatar narrative.

[STORY HERE] “Tucker Carlson was far from Qatar’s only target in its quest to influence conservative media. Established right-of-center outlets like Fox News Digital, Just The News, the New York Post, the Daily Mail, and the Washington Examiner were all targeted to varying degrees by Qatari foreign agents in the months following Trump’s election, records show.”

Things certainly make a lot more sense now.   As the saying goes, “it tracks.”

That said, if Qatar had a media strategy to enhance a foreign policy agenda with the Trump administration, well, that wouldn’t be a surprise; it’s just how things are done.  However, in the background of the puzzling question about how those decades of outlines of Qatar being correctly called out for corruption disappear, well, it appears the Qataris just paid to disappear them.  Go figure.

DISCLAIMER: Qatar has blocked the Conservative Treehouse ever since we published the two-year investigative piece called “The Benghazi Brief.”  Even U.S. military stationed at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar cannot access CTH without using a VPN.

In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ~ G. Orwell

Like I always say, trust your instincts.

GO DEEP ~

President Trump Confronts President Cyril Ramaphosa About White Farmer Murders in South Africa


Posted originally on CTH on May 21, 2025 | Sundance

Earlier today President Trump used the Oval Office and the visit by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to call out the horrific violence taking place against white Afrikaner farmers.  The moment in the oval office was the biggest international spotlight every placed on the issue.  Major kudos to President Trump.

President Trump showed Cyril Ramaphosa a video of political activists within South Africa calling for the murder of white farmers, and then later video showing thousands of white crosses erected to call attention to the issue.  Every element of media’s cultural Marxist army has been denying the atrocities while using political correctness as both a cover and justification for the slaughter.   President Trump put a spotlight on years of international lying, Ramaphosa, did not know what to say.  WATCH (prompted):

To give you an example of the DC media gaslighting, consider this phrase extracted from Politico as they attempt to deny what President Trump was outlining:

…”Additionally, the president’s claims of land seizures are exaggerated. While Ramaphosa signed a law earlier this year laying out circumstances in which the state can seize land for public purposes, most landowners are compensated.”… (link)

Land seizures are “exaggerated” because “landowners are compensated.” Can media even hear themselves, or read the typeset they use?

The farmers do not want to sell their land.  The farmers do not want to be “compensated.”   The compensation is irrelevant in the review of seizure.  The forced taking of the land, with or without compensation, is the seizure.

The murder of the white farmers is the issue, not “how many” of them are murdered.

Tucker Carlson Interviews Podcaster Shawn Ryan


Posted originally on CTH on May 21, 2025 | Sundance

Perhaps it is because I understand the journey Shawn Ryan is traveling, but this is an interesting conversation.  Tucker Carlson sits down with Shawn Ryan who is about 5 years into his journey looking at the political landscape and questioning all of his previous assumptions.

I have long described the DC political machine as a Potemkin village, essentially a stage where the politicians are actors playing roles.  In the back of the stage the real decisions are made, and the performance is intended to give the illusion of democracy.  The performance is real, but there’s a script and the results are pre-scripted.  When Ryan says, “it’s all fake” he appears to be hitting on this theme, albeit in a newer stage of realization.

The voting audience wants to see certain things, the actors (politicians) want to deliver those things, but the producers and the directors have other ideas.  The influence and motive about money really are at the core of every performance. It’s a long interview but does have some value as many of the thoughts expressed by Ryan will likely affirm your own personal journey.  WATCH:

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Once more into the breach dear friends.  Today I’m traveling quickly back to DC and will check in later tonight.

Chapters:

0:00 Joe Biden’s Cancer Diagnosis
3:02 Kash Patel and Dan Bongino on Jeffrey Epstein
9:40 Sebastian Gorka and the Cybertruck Bombing
21:05 The Cybertruck Bomber’s Motives
22:59 Is Anti-Gravity Technology Real?
30:09 Was Shawn Worried for His Life?
33:27 Everything Is a Lie
35:41 Neuralink and AI Consciousness
42:29 How Does Shawn Stay Sane?
47:46 How Shawn Chooses His Podcast Guests
56:11 Why Did Shawn Bury Bibles Under His Studio?
1:01:11 Shawn’s Journey to Christ
1:09:27 The Importance of Disconnecting
1:12:43 How Power Corrupts
1:13:36 Shawn’s Goals for the Future
1:15:45 Kamala Harris Backing Out of an Interview With Shawn
1:21:45 Is There Anyone Shawn Wouldn’t Interview?
1:22:57 Shawn’s Thoughts on Donald Trump
1:24:11 How Is the Trump Administration Doing So Far?
1:32:29 Shawn’s Career in the CIA
1:39:57 Shawn’s First CIA Mission
1:50:51 The Most Interesting Part About Shawn’s CIA Job
1:54:02 Shawn’s Work in Yemen
1:59:58 Shawn’s Counter-Drug Operation in Columbia
2:11:27 How Shawn Defeated His Addiction to Drugs and Adrenaline
2:16:39 Shawn’s Response to Claims He’s Still Working for the CIA
2:23:37 Has Shawn Ever Had a Guest He Thought Was a CIA Operative?
2:31:49 The Spiritual Revival Happening in the US
2:33:27 Shawn’s Favorite Gun

A Big Update on the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’: What Will It Include and Who Will Support It?


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: May 20, 2025 at 2:00 pm EST

Are Republucans Cutting Medicare and Medicaid? President Trump Sets the Record Straight


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: May 20, 2025 at 2:00 pm EST

A Story of Entrepreneurism & Faith: How Ben & Corley Spell Trusted God to Start Good Ranchers


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: May 20, 2025 at 2:00 pm EST

The Faith Journey of Good Ranchers: God Will Establish Your Path If You Commit Your Work to Him


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: May 20, 2025 at 2:00 pm EST

“Our Priority Is To Put America First” Ric Grenell On Hostage Negotiations With Venezuela


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: May 20, 2025, at 5:00 pm EST