Posted originally on Jul 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Trump strikes a deal in Scotland with the EU where most EU exports to the United States will face a 15% tariff, down from the 30% tariff. The EU has agreed to accept U.S. imports without tariffs, according to Trump. This will fulfill our model forecast that the EU economy is in recession and will not bottom until 2028.
Posted originally on CTH on July 27, 2025 | Sundance
The Marshall Plan is OVER!
Okay, this is a very big win. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen outlines some more details of the U.S-EU trade agreement. The parameters fall similar to the Japanese deal, without the banking aspect.
The EU will face (and accept) a 15% tariff rate for most exports to the USA including autos, that’s huge, even with some zero-for-zero tariff sectors outlined. The primary motivating factor was to avoid the 35% tariff rate scheduled for August 1st and provide the EU corporations with certainty in their tariff rate as applied by the USA (15%). WATCH:
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This is almost full acquiescence to President Trump. WATCH THE VIDEO
Posted originally on CTH on July 27, 2025 | Sundance
President Trump and EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen have apparently come to terms around the broad outlines of a U.S-EU trade agreement.
The EU will commit to purchasing $750 billion in energy products. The EU will commit to investing $600+ billion in direct U.S. industries. The EU will commit to purchasing their NATO military hardware from the USA ($500+ billion likely). The EU will open up all markets to USA products without tariffs. The EU and U.S. will both carry a 15% auto tariff for imports. WATCH:
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I’m all about the broad outline described in the video above, but I also want to see the details. If what President Trump said about all EU markets being open is accurate, it sounds like the Marshall Plan is over
Canada will not be happy; Europe gets a deal – Canada gets a cold shoulder.
Also, with U.K, Japan, ASEAN and EU trade agreements complete, President Trump is likely to begin focusing on the USMCA (Canada and Mexico) sooner than later. Two bilateral trade agreements will likely replace the USMCA.
Posted originally on CTH on July 27, 2025 | Sundance
While President Trump visits his golf courses in Scotland, he will also be conducting business on behalf of the USA by meeting with trade partners from both Great Britain and Europe.
This morning USA time, President Trump is scheduled to meet with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, at approximately 11:30am ET. Livestream Links Below:
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The EU is in a very precarious position. Currently scheduled to receive 35% reciprocal tariffs on August 1st, President Trump is in no hurry to negotiate any multilateral trade agreement. The 35% tariff essentially ends the Marshall Plan, and that is the key issue that has currently made the EU go bananas.
Without the one-way benefit of tariffs against the USA, the EU cannot continue to afford its very lucrative social subsidies. Get rid of the Marshall Plan and everything related to the economy in Europe changes. President Trump knows this as does the entire EU collective.
President Trump is not in a hurry to negotiate any trade agreement, and the baseline 10% tariff rate on all nations is a done deal. The EU, specifically under the influence of a very tenuous German economy, are now trying to negotiate avoidance of the 35% reciprocal tariffs.
Posted originally on CTH on July 27, 2025 | Sundance
Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio discusses foreign policy engagements with President Trump’s doctrine at the forefront. As noted by Secretary Rubio, President Trump is the ultimate closer who genuinely enjoys the art of negotiating deals on behalf of the United States.
Secretary Rubio walks through some of the global confliction points where President Trump has tasked his team to engage with foreign governments. Rubio also talks about the restructuring within the U.S. Dept of State.
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The Secretary of State and National Security Advisor roles are perfect for the skillset of Marco Rubio. If there are some big positive surprises within the second term, the executive excellence of Marco Rubio is certainly at the top of the list.
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