Data Torture in Gergis2K


Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers of science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected

Stephen McIntyre's avatarClimate Audit

Reflecting on then current scandals in psychology arising from non-replicable research,  E. Wagenmakers, a prominent social psychologist,  blamed many of the problems on “data torture”.  Wagenmakers attributed many data torture problems on ex post selection of methods. In today’s post, I’ll show an extraordinary example of data torture in the PAGES2K Australasian reconstruction.

Wagenmakers on Data Torture

Two accessible Wagenmakers’ articles on data torture are An Agenda for Purely Confirmatory Research pdf and a Year of Horrors pdf.

In the first article, Wagenmakers observed that psychologists did not define their statistical methods before examining the data, creating a temptation to tune the results to obtain a “desired result”:

we discuss an uncomfortable fact that threatens the core of psychology’s academic enterprise: almost without exception, psychologists do not commit themselves to a method of data analysis before they see the actual data. It then becomes tempting to fine tune the…

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Global Warming Is The New Global Cooling


I agree that they have no clue its as if they never even went to collage — no I take that back it would be to much of an insult the HS grads. They are just educated idiots with no common sense!

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

Climate experts say that a wavy jet stream and harsh winters are caused by global warming.

There’s growing evidence that global warming is driving crazy winters

ScreenHunter_4774 Nov. 22 09.55There’s growing evidence that global warming is driving crazy winters – The Washington Post

Forty years ago, climate experts used the same picture to prove global cooling.

ScreenHunter_4776 Nov. 22 09.58ScreenHunter_4775 Nov. 22 09.58

Science News, Vol. 107

More recently, the IPCC said “mild winter temperatures will reduce heavy snowstorms”

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IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

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IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Just in case you forgot for a minute that climate experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about.

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The Comedy Continues


Sadly today not many will understand this and with common core it will be even worse!

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

If you put your thumb over the end of the hose, the pressure at all points behind your thumb increases. Yet the water continues to flow the same direction. How can that possibly be?

ROFL

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Obama Just Got Punked By The Chinese: They Won’t Honor New Climate Change Deal


If you are a “real” scientist or engineer and run the numbers on the number of solar PV panels or wind turbines that would be required to actually make these numbers, they talk about, you would find it is impossible. If for no other reason that the up time for them is at best 1/3 verses 90% for coal and nukes. So even common core math would tell you that you need 3 times the name plate capacity of power generation to replace coal of nukes. Any country that actually tries to go green will be destroyed!

PA Pundits - International's avatarPA Pundits International

Moore_Steve_TDS-loBy Stephen Moore ~

epalive434666-1260x650 President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Photo: Newscom)

That sound you’re hearing from across the Pacific is the Chinese rulers and Beijing laughing at us.

President Obama and the “green” lobby actually think China is going to honor the new U.S.-China climate-change agreement that pushes both nations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions over the next 15 years.

China agreed to a “target” of deriving 20 percent of its energy needs from renewable resources “around” 2030. In exchange, Obama agreed that American families and businesses will aim to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by at least 26 percent by 2025 from 2005 levels.

This is not a planet-saving climate-change pact. Rather, this plan represents unilateral economic disarmament by the United States as Beijing continues its quest to replace America as the globe’s economic superpower.

Raising China’s energy prices by transitioning to highly inefficient forms of electricity production conflicts…

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Walter Starck: The Climate Scam’s Meltdown


A must read and I agree the grid is likely to fail. Most if not all the reserve capacity has been shut down and solar and wind are incapable of reliable grid level power. the current EPA initiatives guarantees grid failure if not this year then very very soon.

tallbloke's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop

HT to the Hockeyschtick for spotting this essay from Marine Biologist Walter Starck at Quadrant Online. More scientists are coming out to call the alarmist position for what it is.

Walter Starck: The Climate Scam’s Meltdown

uksnowiceThe rent-seekers, opportunists, third-rate academics, carbon-market scam artists and peddlers of catastrophic prophecy can see the alarmist bubble deflating, so they’re trying harder than ever to sustain the scare. Problem is, Mother Nature isn’t cooperating.

This doesn’t mean the climate change “debate” will stop, the news media will cease reporting weather as a dire threat, or that the true believers will no longer be obsessed by it. However, the ultimate arbiter, climate itself, has made clear its decision by ceasing to warm for over 18 years. Despite the ongoing use of fossil fuels, a proclaimed 95% certainty of 97% of scientists and the high-powered projections of the world’s most advanced climate models, the…

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Climate Research needs Re-direction


Spot on I agree 100% with the writer. But I would make one addition and that is we must stop the assault on carbon based fuels to eliminate CO2. However, this does not mean that the real pollutants and fly ash should be ignored and that is where we should be working at the global level.

Forget CO2 its a requirement for all life and levels three times where we are now would be beneficial to crop growth.

Readers Determine That Cooling Systems In Automobiles Are Not Needed


WOW I’m going out to Home Depot and get a truck load of insulation and wrap my house in it. I’ll be able to turn off my furnace and save a ton of money!

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

Some readers have determined that insulators can not increase the temperature of an object to increase. So I guess they can wrap their automobile engine in thick fiberglass insulation, and expect that nothing bad will happen.

Fascinating science.

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Will Green Politics soon be a thing of the Past?


Its hard to believe that there is significant global warming going on when you are buried in 6 to 8 feet of snow and the wind chill is zero zero. Even a High School grad can see that something doesn’t make sense! All this crazy theory does is make the citizens distrust the government and the scientists whom they use to trust but not any more — they have now been added to the group of people to watch closely! If the scientists don’t wake up and speak out there are going to get all their funding cut off and they will be out of jobs!

Surprise: sea water salinity matters to sea level on long time scales


A Slightly More Formal Proof (For Dummies)


Now if only Hansen and the IPCC understood this.

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

Here are the rules :

  1. Heat flows from warmer objects to cooler objects
  2. Heat can not flow from a cooler object to a warmer object

Therefore, if the temperature of the cooler object increases – the only way to maintain the condition of rule 1 is for the temperature of  warmer object to also increase.

People are making the mistake of not understanding the difference between heat and temperature. The diffusive heat flow between a 30 degree location and a 20 degree location is the same as the diffusive heat flow between a 70 degree location and a 60 degree location.

BTW – I used to model heat flow for a living. Feel free to make a fool of yourself though.

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