Tag Archives: Space-time

May 26 2018

When is the Next Megathrust Earthquake Due?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted May 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, What do you make of the risk from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where two major plates are stuck? Scientists ‘predict’ a major earthquake up to 9.2 on the Richter-scale and the following tsunami, that could level Seattle and other cities in the Northwest. A major earthquake – that occurs there every 240 years the last 10.000 years – would be overdue by over 75 years already. You warn about an uptick in earthquake activity the coming years: will this be the feared big one for the US? I’m following you since I saw you on Dutch television and watched the documentary – and it was deeply impressed. Looking forward to your documentary about the unfolding euro crisis!

best regards,

Martijn, Netherlands

ANSWER: That is a very good question. Most people have never even heard of this fault. It is the big one of them all. The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is what is known as a”megathrust” fault which is a 625 miles long (1,000 km). It is a dipping fault which stretches from Northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino in California. This separates the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. New Juan de Fuca plate is created offshore along the Juan de Fuca Ridge which moves toward the North American plate and eventually pushes beneath the entire continent. This one is no joke. It is the ONLY fault which is capable of producing earthquakes that are greater than M8.5 and can reach into 9 to 10 level on the scale. In fact, the CSZ has already produced magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes in the past. It is not 75 years overdue according to our models. We entered the danger zone only in 2009, which then turned sharply higher in February 2018.

The last megathrust earthquake hit on January 26th, 1700 (1700.071) which has been estimated to have been in the 8.7–9.2 level. The megathrust earthquake involved an average slip of 20 meters (66 ft). That was a very big move. Most quakes are under 2 feet. That 1700 megathrust earthquake caused a tsunami which struck the coast of Japan.

 

There are no exact records, so it is nearly impossible to develop an accurate forecast with only one actually known date. The geological evidence can only tell us that there have been 7 such events in past 3,000 years. That would produce an average cycle of 428.57 years. This is not much help. We need to correlate this with the energy output of the sun since most volcanoes tend to erupt during Solar Minimums. Indeed, the last megathrust earthquake took place on January 26th, 1700 (1700.071) during the Maunder Minimum. We are watching the energy output of the sun drop faster since 2015 than anyone thought possible. This means that the first ideal target would be ideally 320.78 years from that last event or 2020.85 (November 6th, 2020).

Unfortunately, do not expect this event to take place on that exact date. All we have is just one known date 1700.071. Correlating that with the activity of the sun, we can at best come up with an approximation for the event. We have no way of predicting the exact date when there is little historical definitive evidence. Look at the ECM Wave at that time #897,  we can see that the megathrust earthquake of 1700 took place going into the Pi target. If the date was correct, then 1700.071 is just a few weeks ahead of schedule.

In any event, we are by no means 75 years overdue. That is simply using an average for events.

May 18 2018

Hawaii Volcano – Right of Schedule?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

RE-Posted May 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

(Download USGS Report on Hawaii)

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I think you have proven time and again that there is a cyclical nature to everything. You said in the report you did on volcanos last year that 2018 would be the beginning of serious eruptions. Well, I live here on the main island in Hawaii. This is by far the worst I have seen here in my life.

DKR

ANSWER: I do not believe that people understand that Hawaii is rather unique. The continuous flow of lava made many complacent. This was due to the fact that Hawaii sits on what is called a “hot spot” which was put forth back in 1963 by J. Tuzo Wilson, a geophysicist, who explained the framework of plate tectonics by proposing the “hot spot” hypothesis. Wilson’s hypothesis has come to be widely accepted. The scientific data on linear volcanic island chains in the Pacific Ocean created the Hawaiian Islands. This “hot spot” has created a very distinctive linear shape of the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain demonstrating that there has been a linear progressive movement of the Pacific Plate over a “deep” and “fixed” hot spot. It is still debated as to how far down this hot spot extends. It is not known precisely if it extends only a few hundred miles or does it go down thousands of miles, perhaps to Earth’s core-mantle boundary itself

Nevertheless, the Hawaiian Islands are really just that peaks of huge mountains that rise from the floor of the Pacific Ocean. The newest of these islands, Hawai’i, is relatively young, speaking geologically of course. The oldest rocks above sea level are less than one million years old. The Island of Hawai’i was actually formed by five volcanoes, yet today currently only three are considered active: Hualālai, Mauna Loa and Kīlauea. Because they seem to sit on a hot spot, they have been continuously active which make them the world’s most active volcanoes.

There is a new sister volcano known as Lō’ihi Seamount, which is still underwater yet also an active volcano about 20 miles off the southeast coast of Hawai’i. Indeed, Lō’ihi may be the next island to emerge in the Hawaiian chain. It is still about 3,000 feet below sea level. Using a linear project, which discounts major eruptions, then it would appear as a new island in about 100,000 years or so. If we get bursts of an eruption, which is cyclically more likely, then that time period could be cut in half.

Historical Eruptions at Kilauea volcano have occurred from both the summit caldera and from vents along the East Rift Zone. The historical record began with a very explosive phreatomagmatic eruption in 1790. The year 2018 was the start of a major eruption sequence. We can see from the chart above that the INTENSITY has picked up significantly since 1924. It was after this 1790 eruption when the volcano has become almost continuously active. It was 1924 when the more gentle effusion turned back to an explosive eruption. The period 1924 to 1955 saw mostly short-duration summit eruptions. Since 1955, Kilauea has seen mostly East Rift Zone activity interspersed with small summit eruptions.

Kilauea’s Eruption rate diminished steadily over the first half of the historic period but has been increasing again since 1924. Currently, we now have “ballistic blocks” being hurled into the air which are the size of microwave ovens. This is typically the warning that this eruption can turn very explosive. The intensity actually began to rise over the past 4 years. This was a perfect 224-year cycle. Hawaii may be complete resurfaced in 2048.

I will restate what I wrote last year: “If we see a series of volcanic eruptions in the VEI 6 category or greater within 2018, expect to see a very sharp turn down in temperature and Global Cooling will take on rapid change going into 2024.” Correlations suggest that when the energy output of the sun declines, as it is doing now, then larger erutptions tend to correlate to such periods.

May 11 2018

British Earthquakes


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted May 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am just curious. Do you have any data on earthquakes in Britain? I was in Winchester in January 2015 when we had a small earthquake. The size was not the issue, but the fact that it was an unusual location, not previously known for earthquakes. Can your computer forecast such events?

ANSWER: Without data, it is impossible to forecast anything. However, that particular area may not have been known for a quake in the past, but the surrounding area has a record that extends back to 1076 when a major quake struck on March 26th that historians said was felt “throughout all England.” There have been 75 quakes in Southern England and there is a fairly regular 13-year cycle with the next one due in 2028.

Like everything else, they build in intensity. There may be what people will call a “swarm” of earthquakes that cluster during a period. There were two in 1692, and then there were six all in 1750, then three in 1752, and two in 1753 with nine hitting in 1755. Those produced even a Tsunami with waves almost 10 feet high that went into the western English Channel about 4 hours following the serious quake in Lisbon.

It appears that we could see a swarm start around 2025, which interesting just follows the high in the Economic Confidence Model, which in fact, incorporates earthquake impacts economically.

May 10 2018

Yellowstone – The Supervolcano When is It Due?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted May 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Yellowstone Supervolcano geyser Steamboat has been unusually active. Many fear that something strange is happening which may signal it is getting active once again under Yellowstone National Park. Steamboat is indeed the world’s largest geyser and it has erupted three times in just six weeks. Many people have been asking if we ran our models on this one. Sure, we gave it a reasonable shot. However, the data is way too vague to produce an accurate projection. This requires not just trying to ascertain the cycle in this Supervolcano, but to double check it against our entire database to see if it correlates with other events to increase the accuracy.

Yellowstone National Park is actually an active supervolcano. It is a “supervolcano” since the entire park in inside the volcano, which is why you do not see the typical mountain and cone.  As you walk around the park you do not realize that you are walking into the Yellowstone volcano’s Caldera. The Yellowstone Caldera was formed when the supervolcano erupted around 640,000+ years ago. The Yellowstone eruption area collapsed upon itself, creating a sunken giant crater or Caldera 1,500 square miles in area. You could fit Tokyo, the world’s biggest city, in Yellowstone’s super-volcanic Caldera, no less New York City, Los Angeles, London, and Paris.

What makes the place so beautiful is the dramatic geological chaos beneath the surface. The magmatic heat that powered that last eruption, is still there and actually is powered two previous eruptions. Therefore, the park’s famous geysers, hot springs, fumaroles, and mud pots, are all because what lies beneath is still very active.

The very term “Supervolcano” implies an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, indicating an eruption of more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (250 cubic miles) of magma. Yellowstone has had at least three such eruptions one about 2.1 million years ago, the next 1.2 million years ago, and the last big one 640,000 years ago. Three super-eruptions at Yellowstone appear to have occurred on a 600,000-700,000 year cycle. It is certain without question that a full-scale eruption would create a global disaster never witnessed by modern man. We are obviously at a loss of historical records to gauge what would happen. The most recent full-scale eruption took place 640,000 years ago – suggesting Yellowstone is overdue for an eruption. Yet this analysis is by itself just one-dimensional. To increase the accuracy, we need to correlate this with everything else in our database.

Looking at just the major Supervolcano eruptions does not help in really determining the true cyclical forces at work. We must also include the minor eruptions that take place within these cycles of 600-700,000 year intervals. The most recent volcanic activity consisted of rhyolitic lava flows which erupted approximately 70,000 years ago.  Indeed, the most recent giant caldera-forming eruption, 640,000 years ago is a starting point. There have been approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions that have occurred in the past 640,000 years. On the surface, this yields a general cycle of 8,000 years. When we correlate that against the entire database we have, it amazingly lines up with 8,600 years, which is no surprise. When we extrapolate this with our VOLATILITY models, it appears that intensity builds in a cycle of 25,800 years (3 times 8.6).

1991 Pinatubo Eruption

Looking deeper into these 80 eruption events, we discover that at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the Caldera, and 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the Caldera. Some 40 eruption events were basalt vents outside the Caldera. Some of this “minor” eruptions that most people overlook were approximately the size of the devastating 1991 Pinatubo Eruption in the Philippines, and several were even much larger than that one. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau, occurred 70,000 years ago. So these minor events are entirely capable of even altering the climate WITHOUT the eruption of a Supervolcano which nobody can honestly say what would be the result. If the eruption of Mount Tambora  in 1816 produced the year without a summer, this one would probably darken the sky for more than a year and would probably result in famine and starvation. The evidence of the previous ash-fall would cover the wheat fields of the USA. That would not be very good for society as a whole. How long would the sun be blocked is the real question. This would most certainly contribute to Global Cooling.

Over the past few decades, there have been several research papers in the scientific press that submit there is a correlation between cosmic-solar radiations and destructive geological events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. On top of this, there are correlations with climate change that kick in where volcanoes throw up ash into the atmosphere which blocks the sun and that sets in motion the global cooling sending the earth back toward an Ice Age. Therefore, the entire process is extremely complex. Our computer can put out a forecast, but it is looking at everything and the dynamic complexity of all the interactions. This is why I do not put forth X happens because of Y. It is just more complex than such correlations.

Many put forth that we are overdue on the Supervolcano eruption using this measurement of 640,000 years ago for the previous event. What we will see is a series of building minor events that should probably come in clusters of three. Based upon our correlations, the Supervolcano will be due 670,800 years from the last event. That means, not so much that we are in the clear, but how accurate is that last date of 640,000 years ago? Is it +- 30,000 years? What does seem to be more likely is that a major event is building in intensity keeping in mind that the smaller events can still be biggest that Mount Tambora and on this scale we do seem to be on schedule.

Apr 25 2018

Where The Future Looks Bright


Armstrong Economics Blog/medicine

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think stem cell research will be the next advance in medicine?

KW

ANSWER: It is a shame that much is misunderstood and has been driven offshore.  So many people think Stem Cells are taken from dead babies. They are gathered from the umbilical cord but can be extracted from your teeth or even fat tissue in your own body. But the answer is yes. Stem Cell research is the next generation that can really be our saving grace for the future against superbugs. They can tank you blood and create a new heart. Aside from the day when you will be able to replace organs, it is helping to shorten the 10-year cycle in the development of new drugs.

This is right on time and it should provide the next advancement in medicine providing the next way of technological advancement.  Biotech companies can also “print” living tissue using specialized 3D printers. They can print tissue that can be used to produce skin for grafts, or cartilage for joints. This is the next great advancement in medicine. One company is Aspect Biosystems, which went into partnership with Johnson & Johnson to develop 3D-printed knee meniscus tissue.

The future is not all dark and foreboding. That seems to be limited to the political-economy. In other areas, the future looks different and promising

Mar 16 2018

Amelia Earhart: Lost and Found


Published on Mar 16, 2018

We finally know what happened to Amelia Earhart. Although it’s a tragic ending, her story remains a tale of courage against all odds.
Feb 21 2018

Adapting Machine Learning for Medicine


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

RE-Posted Feb 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

One project I want to move into after we finally get Socrates up for all levels of service is to turn toward medicine. Google’s AI algorithm predicts heart disease by scanning your eyes. They have used machine learning to accomplish what a doctor would do by traditional methods including blood work.

Medicine suffers from the same problem as financial analysis. It is dominated by opinion and that depends entirely upon (1) your experience and (2) the current situation. For example, a small child of about two was running a high fever. She was taken to the doctor who was flooded with flu patients. She was checked for the flu, found to be negative, and sent home. Day three, the fever was still there. Again, the little girl was taken back to another doctor. The same thing took place. After day four, the fever persisted and once more she was taken back to a doctor and the same thing took place.

Finally, the mother noticed she was not urinating and the child simply responded that it hurt. A fourth trip ended up admitting her to a hospital with a urinary infection that had by now started to impact her kidneys.

Medicine, like analysis, is dominated by opinion. If the doctor does not think of anything else to test, nothing takes place.

Machine learning can be used with a full body scanner and much more accurate results can be obtained. We need a machine that will also do a full body ultrasound scan, a simple pinprick for a drop of blood, and the machine could come up with a lot more information at a far lower cost than what we see today.

Feb 10 2018

Right Angle: Fun, Fun, Fun!


 

Feb 1 2018

Are they Starting To Understand Everything is Connected in Nature?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Feb 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Back in the 1980s, I flew to Toronto to do an institutional session. There was an earthquake that hit. I then flew to Vancouver to do another institutional session and another earthquake hit. I then flew to Tokyo and was hit by another earthquake during the session. I then flew to Australia and joked saying this thing was following me. That night, one struck off the coast of Darwin where we were. I then flew to Aukland and was hit again. That is when I met with the Earthquake Research center. I explain what was happening and at that time they said oh no, that is just a coincidence. Several years later they call me and said they were starting to agree it was connected.

The vibrations that move through the earth with each earthquake called seismic waves are far more significant than originally thought. Today, the impact of seismic waves are being studied beyond the local region of the quake.

The water levels in wells indeed respond to the seismic waves and experience waves of expansion and contraction of the aquifer tapped by the well, This recent event in Alaska saw well in Florida impacted by the seismic wave forces even thousands of miles away from an earthquake’s epicenter.

Back in 1964 with that major thrust-quake, water level changes were reported at 716 wells in the United States, according to the USGS. We are just starting to explore the fact that complexity exists in many areas.

Jan 30 2018

Quantum Encryption even NSA Cannot Break!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology

Re-Posted Jan 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Quantum Encryption is a dream that is rapidly coming true (University of Science and Technology China). At this level, it can make data secure and virtually impossible to hack. This will put the NSA back to the stone age where they belong. Crimes will have to be solved the old fashion way instead of hacking someone’s cell phone to figure out where their bank accounts are and did they pay their tax for the shoes they are wearing.

The Chinese satellite Micius has sent a quantum-encrypted dataset between China and Austria. The Chinese are leading the way to what may prove to be a global quantum internet. They launched Micius in August 2016, to experiment with quantum communications and encryption. Conventional communications satellites transmit information via radio or microwave signals. Micius uses quantum-entangled photons to effectively “teleport” information. This means SPEED that is almost instantaneous while quantum communications are extremely secure and will beat everything – yes even blockchain.

OK. That may sound like Star Trek and beam me up, Scotty! Well, what this amounts to two photons are inextricably linked, meaning if a user knows the state of one particle they can infer the state of the other, no matter how far apart they are. Last year, Micius beat the quantum entanglement distance record, sending a message over a distance of 746 miles.

It works in the same way as Schrödinger’s famous thought experiment, involving a cat in a quantum superposition of being simultaneously both alive and dead. It’s not until an observer peeks into the box and checks on the cat that the superposition collapses into one state or the other. Schrödinger highlighted the bizarre nature of quantum superpositions, in which a quantum system such as an atom or photon can exist as a combination of multiple states corresponding to different possible outcomes. The prevailing theory, called the Copenhagen interpretation, said that a quantum system remained in this superposition until it interacted with, or was observed by, the external world, at which time the superposition collapses into one or another of the possible definite states. The EPR (Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen) in a 1935 experiment showed that a system with multiple particles separated by large distances could be in such a superposition.

Quantum superposition is a fundamental principle of quantum mechanics. It states that, much like waves in classical physics, any two (or more) quantum states can be added together (“superposed”) and the result will be another valid quantum state; and conversely, that every quantum state can be represented as a sum of two or more other distinct states. This also surfaces in the cyclical analysis that I have observed and call the Cycle Inversion.

Here, a message is sent as individual photons that are in quantum superposition states. That means in data terms, those photons represent both ones and zeroes at the same time. The message is coded and decoded through devices at each end. They essentially collapse each incoming photon into the required state, one or zero. If an unauthorized person even tries to intercept the message along the way, the very act of observing it will cause the superposition of each photon to collapse into a random state, garbling the message for the hacker and alerting the intended recipient to the breach.

This is going to change everything. It is interesting that China is ahead of the game. Seems to be spot on with our computer forecasts.