Part II – Europe and China Have an Energy Problem


Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance 

When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine.  Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made.  However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development.

What follows below is a review of the current energy dynamic, specifically surrounding LNG, against the backdrop of the Iran war with a hindsight review of that previous discussion between Putin and Trump.

What most people are missing in their current analysis was something that took place immediately following that Alaska summit six months ago.  Something that did not make any sense until now. {GO DEEP PART I HERE}

Three days after that summit meeting, on August 18, 2025, Russia announced they were restarting Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG production facility.  Russia would be more than doubling their capacity to generate and store liquified natural gas (LNG).

It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time:

AUGUST 18, 2025 – Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 export facility, which is sanctioned by the United States, is coming back to life after a year of no activity and is looking for buyers in Asia.

[…] The U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, have effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.

[…] Last year, Russia started shipping LNG from its flagship Arctic LNG 2 project—but not to customers. The shipments were made from the Arctic project to floating storage units either in Russia or in European waters, as potential customers were unwilling to buy the sanctioned LNG. {SOURCE}

In August of 2025, Russia was essentially producing more LNG than they could sell into the available market.  Russia was storing the overproduction from Arctic-1 on floating storage units and slowly selling to countries that did not align with the sanctions, specifically China and some Asian buyers.  Then suddenly, after the Trump summit, Russia decides to bring Arctic-2 online and produce even more LNG.  You can see how this did not make sense.

If they could not even sell all the Arctic-1 LNG output, then why would Russia bring Arctic-2 LNG production online?

That was six months ago.

Suddenly, with the war in Iran being triggered, and with Qatar almost immediately announcing they were shutting down all LNG production, there are dozens of new markets for liquified natural gas. And that current LNG is now worth 50% more than it was when Russia inextricably decided to start producing and storing it.

Apply some hindsight to this timeline.  Did Russia know or discover something in August of 2025 that the world would not discover until six months later?

Russia’s behavior in increasing LNG production, then storing that LNG in strategic venues, during a time when there was no reasonable incentive to trigger an LNG output increase, would seem to answer that question in the affirmative.

One thing is certain, all of that previously produced LNG is now worth double what it was when Russia created it, and now the global market is scrambling to get it.

Here is where it gets really interesting….

In October 2025, do you remember me asking why President Trump decided to fly East, to go West to the ASEAN summit in Asia?  It just didn’t make sense.

Previously in 2017 when President Trump went to the ASEAN summit, he flew West; Airforce One refueled in Guam.  This time in 2025, a few weeks after the meeting with President Putin in Alaska, President Trump flew East, to go West.

Where did he refuel?

That’s correct.  President Trump refueled in Qatar, and during the ‘unexpected’ stop he met, yet again, with Qatari leadership.

♦ In May 2025 President Trump traveled to Qatar and had numerous and lengthy conversations, signing multiple strategic defense and trade deals.  ♦ In August 2025, President Trump meets with Vladimir Putin, who then begins ramping up production of LNG.  ♦ In October 2025, President Trump travels back to Qatar for a curious and unexpected visit.

Less than 36 hours after President Trump began “Operation Epic Fury” Qatar announces they are halting the production of LNG, and as a consequence the price of LNG jumped and a massive supply shift in global trade was created.

The Financial Times – […] The global battle for gas is underway, with Europe on the front lines. Since Wednesday, March 4, at least four liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers – factory ships with large, refrigerated tanks used to transport LNG over long distances – suddenly changed course. Initially headed for France, Belgium or Spain from Africa and the United States, they rerouted for Asia, according to data from the maritime analytics company Kpler. (read more)

MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) – Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday, linking the possible decision to the European Union wanting to ban purchases of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas. (read more)

MOSCOW, March 6 (Reuters) – “Our companies are considering opportunities, ​without waiting for ​further restrictions from Europe, to conclude ‌new long-term contracts with ​our partners ​and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, ​the Philippines and ‌the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ​said.

Next announcement:

[SOURCE]

Six months ago, following a summit in Alaska with President Trump, President Vladimir Putin began producing and storing LNG at a scale and capacity that did not make sense.   Six months later, the now massive Russian inventory is worth twice as much as it was, AND the number of global buyers for the Russian LNG has exploded.

Meanwhile, “while China would suffer from oil outages, a Middle East crisis with disproportionate LNG outages might benefit the PRC. Natural gas accounts for a relatively small share of China’s primary energy consumption, the country enjoys substantial domestic production, and it can tap pipeline imports from Russia, Central Asia, and Myanmar. Significantly, many of the PRC’s competitors or rivals—the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are substantially or even wholly reliant on LNG imports for their natural gas consumption. Dutch TTF natural gas prices are up more than 50 percent against last Friday’s close, fueling concerns of an energy-induced inflationary spike.”

Where is President Trump scheduled to go next?

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) – The U.S. military campaign against Iran has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the back foot ahead of an expected summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, who for the second time in as many months has turned America’s military against one of Beijing’s close partners.

Trump is set to arrive in Beijing at the end of March following the ​U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a risky Caracas raid in January and the U.S.-Israeli air war that on Saturday killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former ‌leaders of two countries that have been major oil suppliers for China.

[…] Xi now faces the awkward prospect of feting Trump on the world stage or backing out of the proposed March 31 to April 2 ​meeting. Beijing has yet to confirm the summit dates. (read more)

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Huh, imagine that….

Importers, Exporters and Producers Trigger Force Majeure Notifications for Gulf LNG Shipments


Posted originally on CTH on March 4, 2026 | Sundance

Force Majeure is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, epidemic, or sudden legal change prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract.

People would be well advised to wait a few days when announcements are made before jumping to immediate conclusions. The announcement by Qatar Energy of a force majeure notification did not originate from Qatar’s inability to produce contractual LNG supplies…..

[SOURCE]

…. two days prior to this announcement, India’s top gas importer Petronet LNG Ltd issued a force majeure notice to Qatar Energy and local buyers because its LNG tanker ships were unable to reach the Ras Laffan load port due to the crisis in the Middle East.  Without ships arriving to take the LNG Qatar Energy cannot keep producing.

Qatar Energy operates 14 liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains with a total annual production capacity of 77 million tonnes {SOURCE}.  If ships don’t reach the terminals, there’s no need for Qatar Energy to keep pumping and liquifying from well heads.  It’s a downstream issue.

Bahrain made the same announcement for their refined aluminum exports {SOURCE}. Indonesian company Chandra Asri made the same announcement for petrochemicals {SOURCE}. Chevron made the same announcement two days ago after Israel shut down the Leviathan natural gas field {SOURCE}.  Thus, we see the ramifications for the entire region around the Iran conflict zone and the downstream destinations (Asia and Europe) for energy products therein.

Dutch shipping company Maersk has also suspended operation for cargo container ships cancelling all bookings between the Indian subcontinent—India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka—and the Upper Gulf. {SOURCE} German shipping group Hapag-Lloyd made the same decision.

These are not decisions being made due to maritime insurance or reinsurance rates or availability. These are decisions being made by private corporations that go beyond their actuarial risk.  They simply don’t want to operate in a region where there is the potential for loss of life or cargo.

This is not solely an insurance issue and people should pause before offering analysis that only considers the financial aspect.

MAERSK -Maersk announced on Wednesday that it is temporarily suspending most cargo reservations in and out of Iraq as security worries mount throughout the Gulf.

The business said that the ban applies to shipments involving many regional nations, including the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

Maersk said that the measure would stay in effect until further notice. The firm did not disclose any more information on how long the disruption will endure or the scope of the operating effect.

The decision comes as increased tensions and military action in the Gulf area have prompted worries about the safety of maritime routes and logistical operations, hurting commerce flows via many Gulf nations. (LINK)

Susan Kokinda and the Lyndon LaRouche network give their perspective on the British reaction to the U.S. strikes against Iran.  The analysis has some value from a review of the historic relationship of the British imperialist policy toward matters of foreign entanglement and the control mechanisms that have historically flowed from the U.K

As a consequence of British government policy much of the Kokinda analysis accurately touches on the root cause of U.K response. However, the emphasis on the modern UK government as the lead of a global control network is not always as severe or complicated as the Lyndon LaRouche network would espouse.

Prior to visiting the White House, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz had just returned from China and gave a press conference in Germany saying Germans need to “work harder” and “ditch the four-day week” to compete.

Merz visit to Shenzhen shocked him, and he is right to be rattled by the cold indifference of Chairman Xi Jinping.  This was Merz first visit to meet Chairman Xi in person.  A cold and productivity focused Merz just met an even colder and more productivity focused industrial giant.

Merz met the industrial dragon and returned home visibly shook.  The Chancellor thought he represented an apex industrial nation. However, he experienced something far more industrial than he ever imagined.

As noted by Nina Schick: “Take Germany’s famous auto industry, 5% of GDP, 800,000 jobs, but losing ground fast. VW’s market share in China has plunged from 24% to 15% in four years. Chinese brands doubled their European market share in 2025 and now outsell Mercedes on the continent. Germany lost 120,000 industrial jobs last year. And cars are just the most visible example.

But it’s not just competition. Germany has some of the highest industrial energy prices in the world, nearly triple what the US pays. After shutting down nuclear and losing cheap Russian gas via Nord Stream, Berlin built its first LNG terminal in 194 days. Now 96% of the LNG arriving at those terminals comes from the US. (That LNG is even more important in light of events in the Gulf….)

The US is Germany’s second-largest trading partner (€240 billion in two-way trade last year.) German auto exports to the US fell 18% in 2025 under tariffs. Merz cannot afford a trade war with Washington. Today, he watched Trump threaten to cut off all trade with Spain, while sitting next to him in the Oval Office. He backed him up.

Now look at how Merz is positioning on Iran. Spain blocked the US from using its bases. Sánchez called the strikes “unjustified.” Starmer hesitated before eventually allowing UK bases for “defensive” strikes. Merz is the first EU leader invited to the White House for a tête-à-tête with Trump.

Days before, he said legal assessments under international law “achieve relatively little” and that now is “not the time to lecture allies.” Compare that to Sánchez insisting Spain’s agreement with the US “must operate within the framework of international law.” From a German chancellor, Merz’s position is seismic.

And none of this is separable from home. Germany’s economy is in its fourth year of industrial contraction. An aging population, a shrinking workforce, sky-high welfare costs, and an immigration debate that’s handing the AfD seats on a plate. Merz needs the US relationship, because it’s one of the levers he has left to keep the economy blowing in the right direction.

All of this points to a Germany that’s understood its critical vulnerabilities and is pursuing a hard-nosed realpolitik in response. To stay industrially competitive, they need American LNG. They need access to US compute and critical hardware. They need EU member states to spend on defense: something Trump has been remarkably effective at unleashing.

The result is an astonishingly pro-Trump German chancellor. In a country where only about 15% of the population views Trump favorably. The question isn’t whether Merz has realistically assessed Germany’s vulnerabilities (he’s starting to see the bigger picture). It’s whether this wins or loses him votes at home. And on that, my guess is it won’t. {LINK}

Fredrich Merz thought he was an apex predator, until he met Xi Jinping.

Suddenly, Merz looks at the unpredictable Trump, an apex predator who swims around Chairman Xi as if it’s just another boring Tuesday, with an entirely new perspective.

Chancellor Merz realizes that this rather unorthodox American President likely possesses the only qualified skillset that can deal with a REAL apex predator like Xi.

Fredrich Merz dismounts his EU high horse and uppishness turns into respect.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Outlines U.S. Financial/Economic Stabilization Plan, Backstopping U.S. Action toward Iran


Posted originally on CTH on March 4, 2026 | Sundance |

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on CNBC to discuss the Trump administration policies that were proactively deployed during Operation Epic Fury.

The goal of global financial stabilization is actually part of the strategic planning within the White House, including Treasury, Energy and Interior in alignment with the State Dept., Pentagon and national security agencies.  Part of that plan was the announcement for the U.S. to underwrite maritime insurance to ensure a minimal disruption to the global energy markets.

Secretary Bessent discusses the insurance facet at the 3:00 minute mark of the video below. WATCH:

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President Trump Gives Speech on the Economy from Rome, Georgia – 4:00pm Livestream


Posted originally on CTH on February 19, 2026 | Sundance 

President Trump travels to Rome Georgia today to deliver remarks on the economy from Coosa Steel Corporation. The anticipated start time is 4:00pm ETLivestream Links Below.

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BLS Report – January Inflation from Tariffs Non-Existent, Core Inflation Lowest Since 2021


Posted originally on CTH on February 13, 2026 | Sundance

The pundits, economists and financial media are shocked, perplexed, befuddled and flummoxed.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the January inflation data [SEE HERE] and the results are much better than they expected.

Overall inflation is 2.4% year-over-year, and there are zero indications that tariffs are having any impact on consumer prices [See Apparel].

[DATA LINK]

CORE inflation, which removes food and energy, comes in at 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest number since March 2021. This is like reliving 2018 all over again, when the pundits proclaimed with absolute certainty that Trump’s tariff approach was going to cause inflation; it never happened.

VIA ABC – Inflation cooled in January, dropping price increases to their lowest level in nine months, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The lower-than-expected reading defied fears of a tariff-induced hike in overall costs.

Prices rose 2.4% in January compared to a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index.

The data arrived days after fresh hiring figures showed stronger-than-expected job growth in January, even though an updated estimate released at the same time indicated a near-paralysis of the labor market last year. (read more)

While it is likely prices will never reset to the 2021 levels, at least right now we have wages growing faster than inflation, which essentially nulls the inflationary impact within the economy.

Sunday Talks – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Discusses Trump Economic Plan and Growth Forecast


Posted originally on CTH on February 8, 2026 | Sundance

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Fox News to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy as contrast against current growth plans and economic policy.  As noted by Bessent, the future of the Main Street economy generally lags behind the forecast of the Wall Street economy.  All of the domestic investment is currently building out the capacities of the underlying economy to expand.

Additionally, Bessent notes the importance of the cumulative effect of strategic energy policy, the assembly of a critical mineral reserve and the mounting growth in the industrial manufacturing center.  MAGAnomics is creating expanded domestic growth by reshoring many of the industrial jobs due to tariff policy.  Overall, the interview gives a big picture perspective on the short- and long-term economic program. WATCH:

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Europe Furious as U.S. Subsidy Ends – President Trump’s Demand for Lower Rx Prices Means Immediate European Price Increases


Posted originally on CTH on February 7, 2026 | Sundance

Europe is not happy with President Trump’s demand that drug manufacturers provide U.S. consumers with equitable pricing.

If President Trump will no longer permit Americans to pay the research production costs for pharmaceutical companies through high prices, essentially subsiding pharmaceutical costs for the world, then Rx companies will have to increase their prices throughout Europe. This is making the Europeans very unhappy.

(Bloomberg Businessweek) — For the past few years, Swiss oncologist Christoph Renner has treated blood cancer patients with Lunsumio, a new drug that helps the immune system recognize and destroy malignant cells. Then, last summer, Renner got an email from Roche Holding AG, Lunsumio’s manufacturer, informing him the treatment would no longer be available in Switzerland because health insurers there wouldn’t pay for the infusions. “You see what’s possible,” says Renner, a professor at the University of Basel, “and then you’re told you can’t use it.”

The move was a response to rules President Donald Trump introduced that force drugmakers to reduce their prices in the US to the lowest level paid in other developed countries. In Switzerland, new medications typically cost far less than in the US, so in theory Americans should benefit from the change. The problem is, instead of bringing prices down in the US, pharmaceutical companies are raising them elsewhere.

Yet Switzerland has shown little political willingness to pay more—threatening both the availability of medications in the country and its role as a global leader in developing therapies. Drug prices are the primary driver of the increasing cost of mandatory health coverage, and the topic generates heated debate during the annual reappraisal of insurance rates. “The Swiss cannot and must not pay for price reductions in the USA with their health insurance premiums,” says Elisabeth Baume-Schneider, Switzerland’s home affairs minister.

[…] Drug companies say they need to charge high prices on new medications because so much of their work doesn’t pay off. They spend billions of euros on research, but relatively few formulas turn out to be effective. Even fewer provide the massive profits needed to fund further research—and pay off shareholders. Moreover, companies typically need to make that money early on, because after about two decades on the market, drugs lose patent protection, which drives prices down as generics producers start selling copycats.

Manufacturers argue that American patients bear most of these innovation costs and that it’s only fair for other countries to pay more—especially Switzerland, given its prosperity. A more equitable approach, they say, would be to set prices globally and adjust them country by country based on gross domestic product and purchasing power. (read more)

First President Trump starts making Europe pay for their own defenses and NATO commitments; then he has the audacity to tell them the U.S. will not accept European censorship or free speech rules.  President Trump follows by hitting them with the end to the Marshal plan of one-way tariffs, seriously weakening the amount of revenue within the EU, forcing budget cuts.  Then, as if Trump wasn’t bad enough, he makes it even worse by dispatching expensive Green New Deal energy agreements such as the Paris treaty, and using cheap abundant energy in the U.S. while Europe tries to operate on expensive windmills and solar panels covered in snow.

Now, in addition to forcing them to spend money on their military, now Trump expects the EU to just accept the end to their healthcare subsidies and higher prescription medications.  The absolute nerve of this man.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Complains that Half of Something She Tripled is Not Less


Posted originally on CTH on February 5, 2026 | Sundance

Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent appeared on Capitol Hill today to give testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. The leftists were well prepared with narrative scripts to advance their opposition agenda. Bessent was unfazed.

In this highlight, Senator Elizabeth ‘Liawatha” Warren complains to Secretary Bessent about the price of things she tripled and quadrupled. Bessent responded by pointing out the Trump administration is reversing the catastrophic damage from the Biden-Warren economy. “I’m-a-git-me-a-beer” was not pleased at the retort. WATCH:

No senator, half of something you quadrupled is not less.

Thankfully, the grocery prices that Biden-Warren exploded, are finally starting to come down thanks to the economic policies of President Trump.  Warren’s “affordability” narrative collapses each month the real wages of the American worker rise faster than the trailing inflationary impact of prior policy.

As noted by several economic indicators, inflation on the stuff that matters is in retreat. We are now entering the phase of lower gasoline prices, lower transportation costs, lower overall energy costs and stable domestic market prices.  Additionally, exfiltrating illegal alien workers, both underground and above ground, is starting to put upward pressure on American wages and lower overall housing costs.

Peter Navarro Warns Congress Seeking to Reinstall de Minimis Tarriff Loophole


Posted originally on CTH on February 5, 2026 | Sundance 

White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor, Peter Navarro, has written an op-ed warning about a new bill under construction in congress [BILL HERE] that seeks to stop President Trump from blocking the ‘de minimis loophole’ on imported goods.

Previously, various shippers and transport companies like UPS and Fed-X had lobbied congress to retain a loophole on customs and duties allowing items valued less than $800 to enter the USA without tariffs.  They were joined by ecommerce outlets like Amazon, Alibaba, Temu and Shein to keep cheap foreign goods flowing into the U.S. without passing through customs declarations.

President Trump stopped the de minimis loophole on China and Hong Kong and then globally.

As noted by Navarro, “the threshold for the exemption hit a staggering $800 per package — by far the highest in the world. Europe’s is closer to $150. Japan’s is under $70. China’s general threshold is in the single digits. The U.S. wasn’t “aligned with global norms.” We were the outlier, and a very expensive one.”

Now, Navarro is warning that congress is seeking to subvert the Trump position on imports and go back to allowing cheap foreign goods flood the U.S. market at a level that creates chaos in customs enforcement and facilitates the flow of illegal drugs and narcotics back through the system.

(The Hill) – […]   Their bill is simultaneously a poster child for big money politics and a breathtaking insult to the public’s intelligence. It assumes voters won’t read past the title, won’t remember why de minimis was killed in the first place, and won’t connect the dots between lobbying disclosures, campaign checks, and a legislative resurrection of a loophole that nearly destroyed U.S. trade enforcement. 

[…] So when Congress suddenly produces a bill that effectively recreates de minimis under a new name, nobody should pretend it came out of nowhere. This is what sustained pressure looks like. 

Which brings us to the bill itself. The deception starts with the title. To call this the “Secure Revenue Clearance Channel Act” is like calling a casino a “retirement plan.”

The title promises security and revenue, but the text does the opposite. It creates a $600 express-lane carveout that lets express carriers move low-value shipments through a special channel using only manifest data. Instead of paying the tariffs required by law, importers can elect a substitute fee imposed in lieu of normal duties — including tariffs Congress enacted to protect national security.

That’s not enforcement. That’s Deep Swamp chicanery designed to look technical, sound boring, and slide through committee before anyone notices the damage.

Americans are noticing. So, stop it. (more)

President Trump Announces the Appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman


Posted originally on CTH on January 30, 2026 | Sundance 

President Donald J Trump has announced his selection to take over as Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Kevin Warsh.  To give perspective toward the overall viewpoint of Warsh, THIS INTERVIEW from April 2024 gives some insight.

Warsh has been highly critical of the FED monetary policy overall and directly links inflation and depressed wages to the poor decision-making of the Federal Reserve overall.  More background on Kevin Warsh is HERE.

(Via Truth Social) – “I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Kevin currently serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, and Lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He is a Partner of Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office LLC. Kevin received his A.B. from Stanford University, and J.D. from Harvard Law School. He has conducted extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance.

Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report’s recommendations. Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve’s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board’s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia.

In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board’s operations, personnel, and financial performance. Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council.

Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director. I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP