A while back I needed an equation to forecast CO2 and after some work playing with equations I found that the equation listed next will predict the level of CO2 as reported by NOAA each month within a few points ppm ignoring the seasonal variation.
CO2 = 270+730/(1+8.75*EXP(0.00175*(4612-M)))
270 is a reasonable guess for the starting value of CO2 in the base year which is 1650 and M represents the number of months from January 1650 to the date a value is need, such that July 2014 would be 4975. Substituting 4975 for M will give a CO2 value of 399.53 the actual NOAA value was 399.0
A plot made from this equation will closely match NOAA’s number’s from 1958 to the present.
Tag Archives: Wind power
Obama Climate Deal To Triple CO2 Emissions By 2030
In Obama’s view we will just have to go to zero to help make up the difference — in fact the rest of the world would probably have to go to zero!
It is pretty entertaining watching a total moron making deals about things he has no control over, and I’m sure the Chinese feel the same way I do.
Obama’s “climate” deal allows Chinese CO2 emissions to continue growing in a hockey stick for the next 15 years.
I extrapolated Chinese emissions out to 2030 below. Looks like about a tripling of CO2 emissions over the next 15 years.
NASA official says in NYTimes if you question climate models then you must also question Newtonian mechanics
So one would also have to say than that the current weather forecasts that we listen to each morning before going to work must be very very accurate. Since they obviously are not than would would have to say that either the models are wrong or Newtonian mechanics were wrong … personally I’d go for the models!
Why Does The Atmosphere Heat Up During The Day?
Shortwave radiation passes largely unimpeded through the atmosphere. It strikes the ground and warms it. The warmed ground emits longwave radiation, some of which is absorbed by greenhouse gases, causing the atmosphere to warm.
If there were no greenhouse gases, almost all of the surface heat would radiate back into space without warming the atmosphere. A small amount of heat would transfer kinetically directly at the ground surface, but the atmosphere would be very cold. This is basically what happens in Antarctica, where there are very few greenhouse gases.
How could a weather model possibly work without a radiative transfer model which models the greenhouse effect?
Greenhouse Gas Theory Is Very Simple
Excellent summary, short simple and to the point!
The amount of energy leaving the planet is nearly identical to the amount of solar energy being received. (Radioactive decay in the interior of the Earth makes the outgoing number slightly larger.)
Without greenhouse gases, the surface heat would immediately radiate back into space, and the atmosphere would be very cold. Greenhouse gases impede the return of energy to space. In other words they act as an insulator. They absorb photons of certain wavelengths, excite the molecules, and heat them. Many of these excited molecules then pass the heat on to neighboring molecules.
Because of these insulators known as greenhouse gases restricting the energy flow, in order to maintain energy equilibrium, the temperature has to rise near the surface – because heat flow is proportional to the difference in temperature. Increased temperature near the surface causes increased LW radiation, increased conduction, and increased convection – all needed to maintain equilibrium.
It…
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Incredible (as in unbelievable) climate deal
Obama’s goal is the destruction of the American economy and this agreement has nothing to do with emissions!
The U. S. is touting a breakthrough climate deal with China. China has to be laughing at our stupidity.
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Scientists Say The Pause They Didn’t Predict And Couldn’t Admit, Will End Soon
The current pause will last until 2030 to 2035 (actually there will be a ~.25 degree C drop from the 2000 to 2005 period) and then the warming will start up again.
Global warming will SPEED UP after a pause, scientists warn: Climate temperature could rise faster than expected
University of Washington and MIT scientists say Earth’s warming will pause
It has been paused for 18 years, but these geniuses are just now figuring it out.
But it will then undergo a rapid rise due to the amount of emitted CO2
They predicted a rapid rise 18 years ago.
As the icecaps melt, more high-energy solar rays will be absorbed, which means that climate change will continue unabated
Global sea ice area hasn’t changed for 35 years.
Earth will experience a switch from long-wave to short-wave radiation
That would require about 10,000 degrees warming – within the range of Hansen’s high end forecasts.
Global warming will SPEED UP after a pause, scientists warn | Daily Mail Online
Not enough time to implement the Clean Power Plan
The EPA requirements besides not be related to any “real” need are really a part and parcel of the progressives plan and diminishing the living standard of Americans; their thought are that “we” must sacrifice so that there is more for the rest of the world. Their goal is really the reduction of resources in general and this is supported in the entertainment industry e.g. “Hunger Games.” Obama just cut emissions again in a deal with China that go beyond what is talked about here. Be prepared for brown outs and black outs that get progressively worse and generating capacity is reduced.
NERC says there is not enough time to implement the 2020 objectives for the clean power plan.
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IPCC is bonker
Those that support or believe the IPCC are fools!
So let’s see, no emissions, but did they talk to Mother Gaia?
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IPCC Forecast Bears No Relation To Reality
I have a similar chart on my blog and yes the IPCC forecast based on the GCM’s and James Hansen’s work actually show almost a .5 degree C variance!
Centinel2012 