Posted originally on May 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Some claim that the entire strength of the dollar is oil, which backed it after the gold standard fell. I know you said that was a convenient theory, and some now claim Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia is Petrodollar 2.0. You managed money for OPEC and were even in an OPEC meeting, so who better to address this issue than you? I was at your 1985 conference in Princeton, and there were all the Arab nations attending in their white robes, while the Hasidic Jews were attending from the NY garment industry in their black garb. That was an eye-opening conference. So my question is, does oil have any basis for supporting the dollar, or is this another conspiracy theory, like gold going up with inflation?
Yours truly
SM
BTW, Anyone who refuses to interview you is part of the Deep State propaganda.
REPLY: Sam, it’s good to hear from you. You bring up old memories. We have grown old together. If I recall, you were there with your father. I remember when he died. To start with, the percentage of world trade attributed to oil and petroleum products is approximately 8-10% based on the 2022 data. Merchandise Trade in 2022 globally totaled around $25 trillion (WTO data). Of that, crude oil and refined petroleum product exports worldwide were estimated to be between $2.2 and 2.5 trillion (depending on price fluctuations and trade volumes). This includes contributions from OPEC, which are only 40% of crude exports, and non-OPEC exporters like the U.S., Russia, and Canada.
Therefore, if we take the $2.5 trillion and filter out OPEC, this comes to $1 trillion. Now let’s look at just Saudi Arabia, with Nixon’s secret deal (memo) made in 1974 was a negotiation not to support the dollar, but to deal with the Oil Embargo of 1973. Saudi Arabia’s annual oil sales can be measured in both volume (barrels) and monetary value (revenue), which fluctuates based on production levels, OPEC+ agreements, and global oil prices. Even if we look at the numbers from 1974, OpPEC was only about 13% ($112 billion) of world merchandise trade ($846 billion). This significant share was a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis, during which OPEC member countries imposed an embargo and drastically increased oil prices, leading to a quadrupling of oil revenues.
Saudi Arabia typically exports 6.5–7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and petroleum products. In 2023, Saudi Arabia’s oil revenue was estimated at $211 billion (based on ~7 million bpd and ~$80/barrel). This means that Saudi Arabia’s total petro sales amount to .0084% of world trade. The Petrodollar 2,0 is sophistry and just another conspiracy theory. If they priced all the oil in yuan, it would not alter the world economy.
Given the number of emails pouring in on this subject and people claiming Trump’s trip is Petrodollar 2.0 or whatever, I will lay out the truth. This appears to come from the perpetual dollar bears who never look outside the United States and constantly forecast the demise of the dollar since the 1970s. Why anyone listens to them shows that the old saying fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me! They have been wrong for more than 50 years. They never look at the facts and have ZERO understanding of international investment flows.
Yes, we were all dealing with OPEC money in Geneva during the Wild ’80s. That is where all the OPEC money was being managed. Even the Saudi oil minister had a house in Gstaad, Switzerland. That’s where I learned to ski, besides attending exciting parties. Yes, I even participated in OPEC meetings by phone. They would put me on the speaker box. So, I think I know more from the inside out rather than cooking up theories from the outside. This is all tied into this de-dollarization theory as well. I will try to put this together ASAP.
Posted originally on May 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Withdrawing large sums in cash is no longer possible in Spain without the government’s approval. Those withdrawing €3,000 or more must notify Spain’s tax agency, Agencia Tributaria, in advance. Withdrawals at or exceeding €100,000 require a 72-hour approval process, and the tax agency is requesting a 24-hour mandatory notification for any amount over €3,000.
A few news outlets are reporting that the Spanish government will impose a €150,000 fine on those who fail to report, but Project Veritas found that to be false. Article 4 of Order EHA/98/2010 states that these new measures are safeguarding institutions against money laundering and terrorism, the typical scapegoats.
In truth, these measures are intended to provide the government with control over capital. Bank runs occur when people complete lose confidence in the system, and the government is ensuring that it never reaches that point because they can simply implement a freeze. Moreover, governments everywhere are on a hunt for taxes and the entire war on cash is based on the belief that citizens are attempting to bypass taxes.
There is a reason that ATMs impose withdrawal limits, forcing customers to go directly to their bank branch. Spain’s reporting system requires banks to submit information through digital identification methods like CL@ve PIN, an electronic ID, or a digital certificate. The government has ordered banks to deny customers their funds if they are unable to provide proper documentation.
What constitutes “suspicious activity” has broadened in scope, not just in Spain but globally. The Spanish government has said that repeated withdrawals or a few hundred euros at a time will be considered suspicious. Citizens are expected to notify the government of how they plan to spend their money by providing personal identification to their banks.
Governments believe that all currency in circulation truly belongs to them. All transactions should be traceable and taxable. These measures will tighten as the Sovereign Debt Crisis intensifies and governments become desperate for funds and control.
The Netherlands is demanding that the EU review its trade deal with Israel amidst the war on Gaza. Dutch foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp believes Israel is violating Article 2 of the EU-Israel association agreement, which states their partnership is dependent on upholding human rights and democracy. Veldkamp penned a letter to Kaja Kallas, stating that denying Gaza aid since March 18 has been against the “principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence.”
“You cannot starve the people of the Gaza Strip. It is against international law. It’s morally wrong. It’s dangerous. I don’t think it’s in Israel’s own interest,” he stated in his letter, in which he also states there is a “very slim” chance of a ceasefire. “I don’t have any illusions that Hamas will ever apply international humanitarian law, but from a democracy such as Israel, democracies fight differently, and Israel has to abide by international humanitarian law, and with the latest statements by Israeli ministers, such as minister Smotrich that he aims for a total destruction of the Gaza strip, we cannot ignore any longer such statements.
“We support the Palestinian Authority and its return to Gaza. We support the return of every displaced Palestinian for whom Gaza is their home.,” Kallas stated in a press conference this February. “When the time comes the European Union will also support Gaza’s reconstruction together with the regional actors. Palestinians must be able to live in Gaza. At the same time, Gaza must never be again a terror haven.”
Israel has attempted to remain neutral in the Ukraine war, but in February 2025, it voted against a United Nations resolution that reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity, stating they were supporting the United States’ stance. Israel has been accused of supporting Russia, although it attempted to provide some military aid to Ukraine through a deal with the US. Kaja Kallas believes Donald Trump has aligned himself with Putin and has even suggested he be removed as the president of the United States. To Kallas, Trump is standing in the way of the neocon’s dream of finally embarking on the next world war.
Brussels has attempted to remain neutral on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Member states are in disagreement. Nations like Spain and Ireland have criticized Israel’s approach while those like Hungary and Germany have strongly supported Israel’s military actions. No one actually believes that there will be peace in the Middle East. The United States has been center stage in the Middle East as Europe focuses its full attention to Russia. Yet, this could be a leveraging chip to push both the US and Israel to begin supporting Ukraine.
“As the occupying power, Israel is obliged under international lawto ensure that humanitarian aid reaches the population in need,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, and Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Suica in a joint statement this May.
The EU is Israel’s top trading partner. The 2000 EU-Israel Association Agreement provides the premise for free trade between the EU and Israel. In 2024, EU exports to Israel came in at $28.6 billion, while EU imports totaled $17 billion.
How will the EU use this to its advantage? Trump’s upcoming meeting with Bibi is expecting to greenlight a full-scale invasion of Gaza. Europe is desperate for the United States to realign with NATO objectives and begin supporting its goal of conquering Russia. Europe now has leverage to knock both nations off their neutrality stance. As our computer has indicated, there will be a lot of major events in the month of May.
Posted originally on CTH on May 7, 2025 | Sundance
We have witnessed a lot of crazy in the past several years, but this just about takes the proverbial cake.
Current Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, was the leader of al-Qaeda in Syria and had a $10 million bounty on his head as a designated terrorist only a few months ago. Today, French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed him to the presidential palace and called for the EU and USA to drop sanctions against the terrorist network.
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron called on the United States and the European Union to lift sanctions against Syria on Wednesday after hosting the Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on his first visit to Europe.
The French leader said Washington should “rush to lift sanctions,” maintain troops in Syria and then review the situation at a later date.
“The interest of all, including of the Americans, is today to act and accompany us in lifting sanctions on the Syrian people,” Macron said at a press conference alongside al-Sharaa.
Al-Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda member, has received a cautious welcome from the international community after his forces toppled brutal Syrian dictator Bashar Assad late last year.
He has vowed to protect minority groups in Syria and to pursue more inclusive policies. But sectarian violence in recent months, including two bloody days in March during which security forces killed hundreds of civilians, has raised fears that al-Sharaa is failing to rein in Syria’s extremist factions. The Syrian leader subsequently vowed to punish those responsible.
In Paris al-Sharaa argued that “elements of the former [Assad] regime took advantage of the situation to rekindle the war … we’ve launched an investigation committee and a reconciliation committee.”
The French president also called on the EU to stand by its decision to suspend sanctions against Syria. In February Brussels lifted restrictions in the areas of energy, transport and banking, but a June deadline for reviewing them is fast approaching.
“Several allied nations have hesitations, we will work toward dispelling those doubts,” Macron said. (more)
Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Russia-North Korean relations are stronger than ever. Russia has begun construction on a 4.7-kilometer bridge across the Tumen River that will connect the two nations.
Russia’s Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, announced that the project will facilitate trade and tourism and reduce transportation costs. “This is truly a milestone for Russian-Korean relations,” Mishustin said during a video meeting with Pak Thae-song, chairman of North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly. “The significance goes far beyond just an engineering task … it symbolises our common desire to strengthen friendly, good-neighbourly relations and increase interregional cooperation,” he added. Mishustin also stated that the project will help “entrepreneurs” to significantly increase the number of imported/exported goods. The two nations face the harshest sanctions in the world, and North Korea, especially, is in desperate need of food and basic goods.
Tourism will be for the Russians, as North Koreans may not leave their nation without government approval. Leaving North Korea is seen as “treachery against the nation” and punishable by death. It is extremely rare for a citizen to receive clearance to travel, and permits are typically only granted to diplomats, athletes, or the political elite; even then, they are closely monitored. The new bridge will feature checkpoints to prevent anyone from attempting to flee.
“There are many sportspeople and children going there,” Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the Primorye Region, said, without further comment. There are reports that North Korea hosted summer camps for children of Russian soldiers who were killed during the war in Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether Russian families will permit their children to travel to North Korea for summer holiday.
Russia and North Korea, two countries with nuclear capabilities, have strengthened their alliance and this bridge is symbolic of their desire to continue relations. Some speculate that North Korean troops may even be permitted to join the Red Square parade on May 9 to commemorate the end of World War II. South Korea’s intelligence agencies have been monitoring the construction of the bridge.
Sochi, the company in charge of construction, believes the project will be complete by 2026.
The British Neocons, i.e., Boris Johnson, for whatever reason, have decided to wage war against Russia from the outset. ” It has been pathetic… Let’s face it: We’re waging a proxy war but not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel.”
Also in November 2024, when Johnson admits Britain is at war with Russia, the head of MI6 (SIS) in Britain, Sir Richard Moore, tells the world that Vladimir Putin will not stop if he wins the war against Ukraine. He tells the press that the world is at its most dangerous point in 40 years. He naturally blames Putin and accuses Russia of waging a “staggeringly reckless campaign” of sabotage in Europe to undermine support for Ukraine.
Yet, Sir Richard Moore also said that British Secret Intelligence Service agents have been involved in covert operations against Russia on behalf of Ukraine. Moore said:
“We cherish our heritage of covert action which we keep alive today in helping Ukraine resist the Russian invasion.”
The New York Times, in a piece “The Secret History of the War in Ukraine,” reported that the CIA also ran the war in Ukraine out of the United States at Wiesbaden, Germany. There was no way Ukraine could sink Russian ships or know where to target without satellite targeting information. As the NYT wrote:
“Longstanding policy barred the C.I.A. from providing intelligence on targets on Russian soil. So the administration would let the C.I.A. request “variances,” carve-outs authorizing the spy agency to support strikes inside Russia to achieve specific objectives.”
As the NYT wrote, Lloyd Austin was the “godfather” and “architect” of this covert operation to run the war for Ukraine from Wiesbaden, Germany.
Russia has long known about the role of British and American intelligence operatives in Ukraine. Moscow’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, told the Security Council that “Western intelligence agencies, primarily the British MI6, have systematically prepared Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to organize provocations at nuclear power plants in Russia.” Of course, nobody listens to Russia.
Trump told reporters as he traveled back to the White House on Sunday after Pope Francis’ funeral, the Times reported. “I want [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal.” Newsweek claimed that unnamed European and Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Trump is looking for an excuse to walk away if he can point to even a small point of progress in negotiations as a reason to say his job is done. Newsweek claimed that these statements point to the Trump administration’s impatience about what it says is the slow pace of negotiations. Trump has said he is getting Frustrated and if there is no deal, he will withdraw from any peace negotiations. Quite frankly, with the admissions from Britain, Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal with Ukraine when they are only a proxy for NATO and the EU/Britain.
As the Epoch Times wrote, the end of the Russia–Ukraine war is not just around the corner, and negotiators still face several complexities, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 30. This is indeed far more complicated.
Trump has shut down Wiesbaden, Germany, providing the targeting intelligence for Ukraine that was set up by the Biden Administration to wage war against Russia, all under the pretense that this was just a war with Ukraine.
This has been a NATO/Neocon War Against Russia, and the Ukrainians have just been the sacrificial lamb on the Neocon altar of endless wars.
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