DISCLAIMER: There are still many unanswered questions about this model. I provide this essay for the purposes of discussion, but I give no pro or con endorsement – Anthony

Guest essay by David Archibald:

Back in July, David Evans released his Notch-Delay Model which uses Total Solar Irradience (TSI) to predict climate up to 10 years in advance. Soon had previously derived a possible mechanism for the 10 year delay that he found between TSI and tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. This is the lower panel of Figure 4 from his paper:

To test the hindcast match of the Notch-Delay Model, the model was stopped at December 1991 for the TSI data up to that point and at two year intervals thereafter up to December 2012 for a total of 12 prediction runs. The predictions produced were then plotted on the UAH lower troposphere anomaly record up to August…