Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The Chinese Balloon is a surveillance balloon. It is meant more for intimidation. It is unlikely that it really poses a national security threat. There is also one flying over Latin America. Joe Biden’s response was immediately to shoot it down. He was warned that it is too big and would possibly create a debris field that would harm civilians for no reason. The Chinese did the same when Trump came to power. He knew it was just intimidation and gave no order to try to shoot it down.
It flew over Montana which is the #1 target to eliminate our major intercontinental missiles that would point to China. So from that perspective, it had targeted sensitive areas but everyone in the world knows where those missiles are at.
Biden has shot it down once it made it to the Atlantic. Any information would have been transmitted back already. So this too was a measure of Bravado for the PR value. As one client wrote in:
Message: Martin, I live in Myrtle Beach, SC. Today was a clear sky day, the balloon and 5 military jets flying around were clearly visible. Many neighbors were calling each other to inform them of what was happening outside, we and many neighbors were out in the street watching this. Then all of a sudden there was a boom and the balloon disappeared, so much for the balloon. It was interesting. End of story.
This is just intimidation. It seems to have worked for Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly canceled a high-stakes Beijing trip aimed at supposedly easing U.S.-China tensions after the US has done everything it can to make matters worse. Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was stupid. By the US making such a grand stand against China over Taiwan, they have absolutely now guaranteed that China will take Taiwan. Pelosi went just before the Chinese election which only guaranteed Xi’s reelection.
I do not know if there is something in the water in California that seems to make the politicians there lose all understanding of war and intimidation. Now the Republican McCarthy is showing that he too is just acting irrationally and poking China to ensure it MUST now take Taiwan. He announced a Taiwan trip simply because Pelosi did it, and it will do nothing but ensure a war that the USA would lose. Because China warned McCarthy, then he has to certainly go,
McCarthy has now come out and said that China cannot tell him where to go. So he now must go to Taiwan as a matter of gamesmanship, but that works both ways. Pelosi’s trip and now McCarthy’s trip are both doing the same to China. The US pretending it will defend Taiwan when we cannot is absurd and it then forces China to invade for the very same reason McCarthy is saying they cannot tell him where to go. McCarthy is part of the uni-party where Democrats and Republicans will act ONLY in the self-interest of the government.
China has come out and declared that its people should be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The Air Force general told everyone to be prepared for war with China by 2025. Even just looking at the ECM from the start of Taiwan, this is the second wave of 51.6 years and the third wave peaked on January 13th, 2023 (2023.036). That was the week when China staged a massive drill against Taiwan which was three days after a US Navy destroyer transited the Taiwan Strait in a “freedom of navigation” operation which prompted the reaction from China.
All of this poking China only forces war. Just as McCarthy now views he must go since China told him not to, China will respond by invading or they will appear weak. This is like kids pretending to be tough in a schoolyard. The emotions are the same and it becomes a matter of pride.