We Are in the COMPLEXITY & The Collapse of International Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We are in the middle of a convergence of so many crises it is hard to keep track. The SWAMP in Washington has always been out of control. There is even a bill being introduced to make it illegal for congressmen and their spouses or family members to be trading on inside information. It is titled: The Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments (PELOSI) Act. We go to prison for 20 years for what they do routinely. The Biden money payments from China will be the foundation of an impeachment proceeding. With all the Democrats did against Trump and are still at it, they have opened the door to what goes around comes around. Trump has announced the New York Democratic prosecutors are desperate to indict him in hopes of preventing him from running for President and that they will arrest him perhaps this coming week. Now the theory, since the taxes did not work, paying “hush” money to Stormy Daniels the porn star. When you have Biden taking money from China and Ukraine and everyone turns a blind eye, paying hush money to a porn star is far more important to the country?

The political nonsense that dominates a lot of boards of directors should be outlawed as fraud. The people on the board of SVB had ZERO experience in finance no less economic trends. All they do is pay mountains of cash to the Democrats and get put on boards for their political contacts. So many boards are stacked with political people, lawyers, or accountants, who have no experience in the financial markets or economic trends. If these people have ZERO experience in running a company, then they should be liable for their decisions.

We were called in by a major public company in Australia on a project to hedge their foreign exchange exposure. The quote we gave them was somewhere between $1 and $2 million back in the 1980s. They rejected it and said they would not pay more than the CEO was paid. They were clueless. I explained that we had dealing desks in Asia, the USA, and Europe and their book would have to be passed around the world 24 hours a day. They did not understand anything. They hired a 23-year-old kid to hedge their risk, he bought a Porsche and got into an accident, and while in the hospital they lost $80 million. Regulators then realized that directors should be held responsible for making decisions in things they had no experience.

We are headed into such COMPLEXITY it is off the charts. We have a convergence of so much going into April, it’s hard to say which fundamental will be the top dog. Between arresting Trump, and the revelations coming out about the Biden Crime Family, all of this contributes to the collapse in confidence in the government. Then Biden’s failure to understand the serious nature of this banking crisis and that it is the Biden Administration that is directly responsible for the crisis as it continues into April just added to the COMPLEXITY. Biden’s handling of SVB will now be seen as political since the phones were melting down from all the Democrats in California who stood to lose. Even Ophrah Winfrey had a ton of money in SVB. NBow the failure to stand behind all deposits everywhere will only make this look like a Democratic bailout.

Add to all of this, the ICC has shown that it too is politically corrupt and has been usurped by the Neocons. The ICC issued the bullshit criminal indictment of Putin orchestrated by the Neocons when in fact they have no such jurisdiction. The ICC has lost all credibility. ICC has jurisdiction ONLY over member states and that does not include the USA, China, or Russia. I reported that my sources on October 14th, 2022, were warning that the ICC was being politically manipulated not much different than the SWIFT monetary system. A team of lawyers in the UK filed a complaint with the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court on behalf of the people. The report alleges that government officials, and pharmaceutical executives, have conspired with COVID. They did nothing.

The ICC can ONLY prosecute member states. The United States refused to join the ICC so no American can ever be tried for a war crime. The same applies to Russia, yet the ICC is trying to politically indict Putin to create World War III. The ICC has lost all integrity no different than the New York Prosecutors going after Trump for anything they can possibly find. Next will be his parking tickets.

I had dinner with people from the ICC and they acknowledged that the United States used its legal system for political purposes. They were stunning in my case. They also said they would love to bring charges against the United States for they routinely violate international law and engage in torturing people – remember waterboarding and  Abu Ghraib.

In my case, I believe the banks told the CFTC to shut down our forecasting because they thought removing us would then allow them to manipulate markets. But they still blew up the world economy in 2007 and traders on the floor were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge. They never learn. They can bribe all the politicians, but that does not guarantee their trade. The CFTC refused to allow the forecasts to continue and insisted that all staff was to be fired worldwide. They rejected others offering to rent the Institute to keep it going. This was a FIRST AMENDMENT violation to shut down our forecasting to aid the corrupt banks.

The ICC told me at dinner that they would have loved to take my case, but since the US was not a member they could not bring charges against the US courts. That proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this indictment of Putin is political and they have sold their soul to the Neocons. This was announced in hopes of threatening China with respect to their meeting with Russia to try to stop them from joining forces. The Neocons have now full control of the ICC and that prevents any peace negotiations going forward.

Then last November, the United Nations also surrendered its independence to the Neocons ensuring that we have no choice but to enter World War III. This is the agenda. The United Nations General Assembly has now adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for the loss of life. The US refuses to provide any independent investigation into blowing up Nord Stream which was an act of international war. Instead, they attack the messenger. The UN simply wants to wash its hands in the blood of millions if not billions negative what it was entirely supposed to have been created for – world peace.

The world is now officially in control of the Neocons. Never in all my years did I ever expect looking at their long-range forecasts calling for a war that we would be the evil aggressors. We need the model to do its job here for we cannot even figure out on an opinion basis which fundamental will come out on top. We really desperately need members of Congress to recognize the real threat is within.

House Oversight Receives Bank Records Showing Biden Family Paid by Chinese Energy Company


Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance 

The House Oversight Committee released records today outlining how the Biden family was paid by a Chinese energy company [House Link Here].  The bank records indicate payments to Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden; Joe Biden’s brother, James Biden; Joe Biden’s daughter-in-law, Hallie Biden, and an unknown “Biden;” likely the principal, “big guy”, Joe Biden himself.

WASHINGTON—Today, the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability issued a memorandum revealing new evidence resulting from the investigation into the Biden family’s influence peddling and business schemes. Subpoenaed financial records show that from 2015 to 2017, Biden family members – Hunter Biden, James Biden, Hallie Biden, and an unknown “Biden” – and their companies collectively received $1.3 million in payments from accounts related to Rob Walker, a Biden family associate.

Notably, on March 1, 2017, less than two months after Vice President Joe Biden left public office, State Energy HK Limited, a Chinese company, wired $3 million to Rob Walker’s company. The next day, the company wired $1,065,000 to a company associated with James Gilliar, another Biden family associate. Afterwards, the Biden family received approximately $1,065,000 in payments over a three-month period in different bank accounts. From the bank records, it appears that the Biden family received approximately one-third of the money obtained from the China wire.  (read more)

[Source pdf]

Report, Biden Administration Approved 192 U.S. Trade Licenses Worth $23 Billion to Support Blacklisted Chinese Companies


Posted originally on the CTH on March 3, 2023 | Sundance

He’s not called China Joe for nothing.  This is quite a considerable amount of U.S. tech products delivered to blacklisted Chinese companies.  It would be interesting to trace the multinational kickbacks to the Biden administration.

March 3 (Reuters) – The Biden administration approved 192 licenses worth over $23 billion to ship U.S. goods and technology to Chinese companies on a U.S. trade blacklist in the first quarter of last year, according to a document released by a U.S. congressional committee on Friday.

The 192 licenses granted were out of 242 license applications decided between January and March 2022, a chart showed, and 115 of those approved contained controlled technology. Nineteen, or 8 percent of the total number of applications, were denied, and 31 were returned without action.

Republican Representative Michael McCaul, chair of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, released the license numbers on Friday after revealing at a hearing on Tuesday that more than $23 billion worth of licenses were approved for suppliers to companies on the U.S. Department of Commerce’s “entity list” in the first quarter of 2022.

In a statement on Friday, McCaul called the approvals unacceptable. “This critical U.S. technology is going to the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance and military efforts,” he said. (read more)

Beijing knows they can purchase U.S. political outcomes. At this point the pretending is embarrassing.

The Collapse in Confidence in Biden is Building


Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I know a lot of people are deeply concerned about how the Biden Administration has been usurped by the Neocons who are deliberately driving us to war. I can tell you that writing letters to your representatives does have an impact. Getting everyone to flood your senator and congressman for that is the only way to stop it.

WRITE TO YOUR CONGRESSMAN & SENATOR ASAP

I have been in contact with the military and I can say they are not so supportive of Biden. One said today, “we are we sticking our nose in everyone’s business. What does Ukraine really mean to us the people?” The 8th Air Force dismissed two people because they lost confidence that they would wage nuclear war. The official wrote:

“Maj. Gen. Andrew J. Gebara, commander of 8th Air Force, relieved two commanders today from their positions of leadership at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, due to a loss of confidence in their ability to complete their assigned duties.”

We must respect that there are people in the military who also disagree with this insanity!

It was a Russian who disagreed with Khrushchev and Alerted Kennedy to the missile he intended to send to Cuba. The Russians later staged a coup and overthrew Khrushchev because he too was obsessed with war like our American Neocons today. Hopefully, someone brave will overthrow them as well to save the world.

Shooting Down the Chinese Spy Balloon


Watch the spy balloon get shot down by two American Jets on February 4, 2023

Russia and China Heavily Promote Strong Ties as Western NATO Alliance Expand Larger War Pressure


Posted originally on the CTH on February 22, 2023 | Sundance 

I wrote about distinct data points in the last 24 hours {SEE HERE] that lean toward direct NATO hostile activity against Russia.   Joe Biden might be saying that Ukraine flags are hanging from homes in small town America (major propaganda footing), but the overwhelming majority of Americans do not support an expanded war.

Russia is preparing.  Today, high level officials from China and Russia held talks in Moscow and they were not hiding their unity of purpose in an alliance that would oppose western NATO engagement.  When Beijing allows the panda mask to fall, the dragon message underneath it, “a relationship with no limits,” should be reviewed very carefully.  The AP has some good color on the Moscow meeting.

(Via AP) Russia and China showcased their deepening ties Wednesday in meetings others are watching for signs that Beijing might offer the Kremlin stronger support for its war in Ukraine.

The visit by Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official, to Moscow comes as the conflict in Ukraine continues to upend the global diplomatic order.

Relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest point since the Cold War, and ties between China and the U.S. are also under serious strain. Moscow suspended its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with Washington this week. And the U.S. expressed concern that China could provide arms and ammunition to Russia.

Speaking at the start of talks with Wang, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed ties between the two countries and added that the Kremlin expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Russia.

The Russian leader, whose own rule over Russia is imperiled by the war, noted escalating international tensions, adding that “in this context, cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the global arena is particularly important for stabilizing the international situation.”

While Wang said “Chinese-Russian relations aren’t directed against any third countries and certainly can’t be subject to pressure from any third countries,” the specter of the war and how it has galvanized the West and deepened its divide with Russia hung over his meeting with Putin.

For instance, Wang emphasized that Moscow and Beijing both support “multipolarity and democratization of international relations” — a reference to their shared goal of countering the perceived U.S. dominance in global affairs.

Earlier Wednesday, Wang held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. “Our ties have continued to develop dynamically, and despite high turbulence in the global arena, we have shown the readiness to speak in defense of each other’s interests,” Lavrov said.

Wang responded in kind, underlining Beijing’s focus on deepening ties with Russia — a relationship it has said has “no limits.” (read more)

China is never going to tell U.S. diplomats that Beijing will support Russia in the war.  That’s not the way the panda messaging works.

Officially, China will present themselves as the high-road traveler, saying every effort for peace should be the focus.  However, the interests of China, which is the real motive of the Beijing dragon, are much better positioned if the U.S. and western alliance decide to engage in war against Russia.

All of those advanced mineral, oil and energy investments by China become exponentially more valuable if Team Windmill goes to war against Russia. All of those U.S. multinational corporate assets currently held in Chinese manufacturing investments, will become outright property of the CCP if the U.S. goes into direct conflict with Russia.

The western NATO alliance (+ Japan and Australia) could certainly benefit from war to avoid the currency collapse looming as a result of excessive COVID spending combined with the Build Back Better energy policy shift.  However, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia have already been roleplaying and positioning a currency replacement for OPEC+ (which includes Russia).

There’s nothing in the current geopolitical landscape to pull the NATO alliance away from increasing hostilities, and there’s nothing in the geopolitical outlook of China which precludes them from siding with Russia if the conflict does break out.  In addition, no nation plays the passive-aggressive panda mask game as good as China… AND they’ve got North Korea to use as a controlled scapegoat arms broker.

Nothing in this scenario of the Chinese panda hugging Russia gives any optimism toward less likely World War III.  It’s all bad.

Making matters worse, the one ingredient that could stop these war drums is respect.  Do you think Chairman Xi and President Putin respect the cunning geopolitical strategy of Joe Biden?   Of course not.  No more than they respect Justin Trudeau or any other EU political leader representing their collective woke ideology.

Take respect out of the war dynamic and you lose the emergency brake.

Joe Biden Sees Ukraine Flags Flying from Homes All Over Small Town America


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance 

Perhaps he believes this, but if it is true, I have not been able to locate any evidence.

During his speech in Poland Tuesday, Joe Biden said he sees Ukraine flags flying on American homes “all across – big cities and small towns.”

…”And the American people are united in our resolve as well. All across my country, in big cities and small towns, Ukrainian flags fly from American homes.  Over the past year, Democrats and Republicans in our United States Congress have come together to stand for freedom.  That’s who Americans are, and that’s what Americans do.”…

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Annnnd, ACTION! – Traveling by Train Joe Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Kyiv, Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 20, 2023 | Sundance

The theatre and pantomime of Ukraine, as orchestrated by the White House & State Dept. and summed up in the phrase “World War Reddit,” continues.  I will admit, the air raid sirens were a nice touch.

Joe Biden made a surprise trip into Kyiv, where the word “surprise” is intended to fall upon the eyes and ears of the American public, not the Ukrainian government or the Russians who were given advanced notice that Joe Biden was traveling to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy.

The White House admits in their on-the-record briefing {Read Here} that Russia was informed of the trip prior to Biden’s departure from Washington DC. So, the New York Times framing of the transportation aspect, “after a trans-Atlantic flight to Poland, Mr. Biden crossed the border by train, traveling for nearly 10 hours to Kyiv, as other American officials have in recent months,” was clearly done as part of the theatre around the visit.

Additionally, as every media article about the visit includes (for additional “color” of the performance) air raid sirens were sounded as Joe Biden and President Zelenskyy stepped out into the streets.  From the screenplay as written. I suggest reading in your best Richard Attenborough dramatic voice:

Mr. Biden arrived early Monday morning to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the two stepped out into the streets of Kyiv even as an air-raid siren sounded, a dramatic moment that underscored the investment the United States has made in Ukraine’s independence.

[…] “Mr. Biden joined Mr. Zelensky for a visit to St. Michael’s monastery in downtown Kyiv, where the sun glittered off the golden domes as the air-raid alarm wailed. Trailing two soldiers bearing a wreath, the two leaders walked along the Wall of Remembrance, with portraits of more than 4,500 soldiers who have died since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and first fomented a rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

The air-raid alarm had stopped by the time Mr. Biden got back into his motorcade and departed the monastery. The alarms sound almost daily in Kyiv, but the blare of the siren added to the bristling tension of the moment. (read more)

Everything, and I do mean e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g, about the Russia-Ukraine war narrative, via western media, is a scripted performance using the best deployed messaging and narrative engineering systems as created by Hollywood and corp media.  No western nation can generate propaganda as well as the United States.

White House Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Daleep Singh, told everyone in February 2022 what the strategic policy of the Biden administration was toward Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict beginning.  Few were paying attention:

…”Ultimately, the goal of our sanctions is to make this a strategic failure for Russia; and let’s define a little bit of what that means. Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done.  In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.” (LINK)

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability.  Everything that has followed that February 24, 2022, announcement has been a strategic construct for public consumption.  This is why I called the conflict “World War Reddit.”  As a result, one year later we see the theatrics of the conflict story once again being performed by the White House.

Very few people will recognize this.  Fewer still even paid attention to the statements that preceded the theatrics.

World War Reddit continues….

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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Admits Goal is to Shrink Economy to Meet Decreased Energy Supplies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

Prior to this interview, the Fed was being too-cute-by-half as they talked about targeting the ‘demand side’ through increased rates.  The demand they were targeting is the energy demand, but people (mostly in the financial and business world) were not willing to accept that Federal Reserve monetary policy would intentionally try to shrink the economy.

When overall energy price increases are driving upward of 60%, it is going to take a major amount of economic contraction to drop energy demand to meet the diminished energy supply.  CTH has been warning about this ultimate objective for over two years.  It’s a simple economic situation.

+60% price on the supply side, with a goal of +2% on the downstream demand side, equals a major amount of activity needing to be removed. Essentially energy use needs to drop by half.

You can put everyone in an electric car and still not even come close to dropping energy demand 50%.  You cannot “energy efficient” your way to a 50% drop in demand; there just isn’t enough waste in the system, especially when people are already paying close attention to energy use because it costs so much.

This “transition to the new green economy” is a whole of society shift.

This “transition to the new green economy”, is a multi-generational shift.

The transition includes putting people in smaller houses, stopping their travel, stopping their purchasing of new goods, taking down entire industries and limiting human activity on a massive scale.

Something akin to the COVID-19 lockdown period would be needed, only this level of diminished economic activity would be permanent.

It makes you wonder if the COVID-19 lockdown was the test to see how much energy use would drop if everyone was stopped in place.  And yes, during the COVID lockdowns, human activity did stop, economic activity did stop, and energy use did drop by the nearly amount we are talking about.

When you accept what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is openly admitting in that interview segment, particularly as he is asked about the massive supply side costs and how that overlays, then you realize how prescient the image is below.

This image is the exact future you see flowing from the “radical transformation,” or what is also called “managing the transition“…

At the end of the transition, you have two social societies.   One social system is a massive assembly of human activity all in close proximity. The alternative social system consists of those who do not wish to be jammed into Build Back Better cities yet forced to sustain themselves because the energy production and delivery resources in the larger geography have been stopped.

Now you know why I asked the question, “where would you live” over a decade ago.

America’s biggest threat – China


Newsmax TV Posted originally on Rumble on February 15, 2023