A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. I now move on to problems arising when Bayesian probabilistic approaches are used, and then summarize the state of instrumental period warming, observationally-based climate sensitivity estimation as I see it. I explained in Part 1 why other approaches to estimating ECS appear to be less reliable.

Slide 8

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

As many readers will be aware, I attended the WCRP Grand Challenge Workshop: Earth’s Climate Sensitivities at Schloss Ringberg in late March. Ringberg 2015 was a very interesting event, attended by many of the best known scientists involved in this field and in areas of research closely related to it – such as the behaviour of clouds, aerosols and heat in the ocean. Many talks were given at Ringberg 2015; presentation slides are available here. It is often difficult to follow presentations just from the slides, so I thought it was worth posting an annotated version of the slides relating to my own talk, “Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation”. To make it more digestible and focus discussion, I am splitting my presentation into three parts. I’ve omitted the title slide and reinstated some slides that I cut out of my talk due to the 15…

Gordon and I have corresponded many times, and I follow his advocacy.

In the 1970’s, back when NASA was putting men on the moon – they simply didn’t know how to read thermometers correctly. Scientists thought that 1970 was cooler than 1900, and there was a big spike at 1940 – followed by rapid cooling.

NASA can no longer put men on the moon, but they can go back in time and reread thermometers from the 1970’s. They have since discovered that 1970 was much warmer than 1900, and that the scientists who put men on the moon were of inferior intellect to Mikey, Gavin, and Jim.

The image below overlays the 1970’s graph on the current one. NASA time travel  has removed the blip, and saved us from the unpardonable sin of climate denial.

From: Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: 1940s
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:25:38 -0600
Cc: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>

It would be good to remove at least part of the…

6th Highest Global Sea Ice For This Day. 

Antarctic 1.4 million above the 1981-2010 mean. That is 22%!

Arctic has been rising for last 4 days and is higher than 2006 and 2007.

Data: South / North