Posted originally on Aug 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Economic warfare is dismantling free trade and turning friends into foes. This has nothing to do with trade tariffs, as the issue is the tariffs we are placing on nations for the sole purpose of political policy. The US is threatening Indiawith sanctions if it continues to purchase Russian oil, and the Kremlin is using that to its advantage.
“We believe that sovereign countries should have, and have the right to choose their own trade partners, partners in trade and economic cooperation. And to choose those trade and economic cooperation regimes that are in the interests of a particular country,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated.
Around 35% to 40% of India’s crude oil now comes from Russia as the nation began drastically increasing its purchases when the Ukraine-Russia-NATO war began, since Russian crude was cheaper than what the Middle Eastern nations were charging. India has heavily profited from this deal, but the US would have done the exact same thing if it were in India’s position. The Trump Administration believes free trade is only free and fair if it directly benefits the United States.
“The targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) commented. “It is noteworthy that those nations criticizing India are themselves engaging in trade with Russia. In contrast to our situation, their trade does not constitute a critical national necessity.” The MEA also noted that the US and its allies reached out to India to purchase oil amid shortages that they themselves created. There is a clear double standard here that is making America look a bit foolish.
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” Donald Trump stated online, openly stating that these new tariffs are intended to shape India’s trade policy. Furthermore, Trump said India was “not a good trade partner” and dismissed the billions in trade between the two.
This arrogant stance is pushing India out of neutrality and into the arms of the Kremlin. There is nothing diplomatic about calling your trade partner worthless on the public stage and then bullying them with sanctions into changing their foreign policy. Trump has also been threatening economic warfare against nations that oppose Israel. I do not know who is currently surrounding Trump and permitting him to carry out these disastrous policies. Let us not forget that India is also a nuclear superpower—we do not want to turn India into an enemy nation.
Kaja Kallas displayed her incompetence as she is conflicted by personal hatred of Russians. Despite her catastrophic meeting with China’s High Commissioner for Foreign Relations, she tried to lecture him about EU values and democracy when neither she nor Ursula had been elected. She then demanded that China submit to the rules-based order of the EU and unimaginably demanded that China condemn Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, cease providing support, and use its influence to tell Putin to surrender and stop Russia’s advance westward.
Wang Yi respectfully stated that China was not helping Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. He added that he had no intention of interfering in that conflict. Moreover, he bluntly informed Kallas that China had no intention of standing idly by and watching Russia lose. He stated that China believes that if Russia were defeated, the EU and NATO would turn on China next. It was reported that observers never saw Wang Yi so angry at the arrogance of Kallas.
As Sun Tzu said, you must know your enemy and yourself to be able to succeed. If you do not know either, you will be defeated. Here, Lavrov and he view from a speech just the other day, the Russian interpretation of what is truly going on.
Posted originally on Jul 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Vladimir Putin has 580 billion additional reasons not to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz entered office with a clear intent to usher Germany into World War III. Not only has Merz mobilized troops and the largest military spending package in modern European history, but he is now demanding that Russia pay reparations amid an ongoing conflict.
“Growth, market freedom, our energy security, as well as the extraordinary strain on our social systems caused by war refugees: all of this is linked to the war in Ukraine,” Merz said ironically, as Europe would not have these problems if it didn’t embed itself in the middle of the conflict. “The reconstruction of Ukraine is not just a matter of the future… Day after day, we are ensuring that life in Ukraine can continue despite all of Russia’s daily and especially nightly attacks.”
Merz believes that Russia must pay at least 500 billion euros ($580 billion USD) in reparations. His comments were made at the same July 10 conference where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced “the largest equity fund globally to support (Ukraine’s) reconstruction” worth 2 trillion euros.
The G7 nations have already seized $300 billion in foreign Russian assets. Perhaps Merz forgets the repercussions of the Treaty of Versailles after the first World War in 1919. France and Britain, still obsessed with revenge for their own wartime losses, forced Germany to accept total responsibility for a war that was triggered by a single assassination in the Balkans. Germany was stripped of territory, disarmed, and then burdened with reparations so astronomical they could never be repaid.
The German people were humiliated, starving, and desperate. Hyperinflation destroyed their savings and created a depression felt through the generations. The Weimar Republic was a puppet regime enforced by foreign powers. That anger fermented into nationalism, and history repeated — as it always does. This is precisely what gave rise to Adolf Hitler, and if the people think Vladimir Putin is malicious, they are ill-prepared for the hardliners standing behind him, eagerly awaiting their opportunity to take on NATO. Putin has been attempting to end this conflict, but has been prevented from doing so by the Western neocons who removed the possibility of peace.
When you back a nation into a corner, destroy its economy, and humiliate its people, you guarantee a future war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been escalating and neocons like Merz are ensuring that the embers ignite until a fire roars through Russia and Ukraine before engulfing the rest of the world.
Posted originally on Jul 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: After reading you for more than 10 years, I understand that you are the best at geopolitics because you honestly know history. Medvedev has called on Vladimir Putin to consider pre-emptive strikes against the US and its allies in response to Donald Trump’s ‘theatrical’ 50-day deadline. What would your advice be to Putin, since no leader can do what Trump has demanded and remain in power?
PD
ANSWER: I would give the West 31 days to (1) remove Zelensky & hold an election in Ukraine, (2) honor the Minsk Agreement as the West guaranteed, and let the Donbas vote on separation as took place in Czechoslovakia and the breakup of Yugoslavia. If that is not carried out, the Ukrainian people have 2 weeks to vacate Kiev, and it will be nuked.
NATO will claim that they will target Moscow, and I would then lock in every capital of Europe. If Trump intervenes, I would target Washington, NYC, Chicago, and LA without dropping leaflets. Maybe then the people will get off their ass and remove the leaders of Europe, and the American Neocons should be hauled out and imprisoned for a usurpation of power, and that would be using the West’s tactics of REGIME CHANGE in reverse.
Let us not forget that the Neocons of the US and Europe deliberately created this civil war in Ukraine. John McCain and Victoria Nuland overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. They lied to the Ukrainian people, telling them this was their moment for peace and it was just about them. What bullshit!
Victoria Nuland decided who would run Ukraine, not the people. Her gaffe was “F the EU”, she was deciding the fate of Ukraine. She installed her UNELECTED puppet and instructed Turchynov to attack the Donbas. The Ukrainian people were lied to by Zelensky, who ran on a promise of peace.
Our press always condemns Putin and will never tell the truth because the Neocons pay them to drum up the war at all costs. WAR, WAR, WAR. Why? That leads to massive death, the destruction of our economic future, and war never ends as expected. The bulk of our national debt is the cost of the endless wars of the Neocons, which Trump promised to stop, so much for democracy.
The death toll was 130,000 when Zelensky was running, and he promised peace. It is now approaching 1.5 million, and over 8 million have fled the country. Russia was optimistic that Zelensky’s election would end the war. He has suspended the election, assumed a dictatorial role, and takes his orders from NATO. No major country suspended elections during World War I or World War II.
The Ukrainian people have been played as fools, denied any democratic process. What I hear behind the curtain is that nobody cares about the Ukrainian people, what the hell, they were all communists and Nazis before anyhow.
It was Boris Johnson who flew to Kiev and instructed Zelensky that he was not allowed to sign any peace deal. The Ukrainians I speak to ask, are they allowed to have peace without permission from London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington?
The Neocons only care about winning. They do not care about the cost, the people who die on the battlefield, nor the “collateral damage” to civilians. World War II was the deadliest conflict in history, with massive casualties on both the military and civilian sides.
Total Estimated Deaths in WWII: 70–85 million
Military Deaths: 21–25 million
Civilian Deaths: 50–55 million
Europe lied and signed a peace treaty, and Merkel admitted that they had no intention of honoring that agreement. It was only to buy time for Ukraine to raise an army to start World War III against Russia.
The West wants this War. There is no possible way for Putin to come to any peace terms with the West. They will not honor it, for the Neocons have spent their entire lives dreaming about the conquest of Russia. The West is infected with these warmongers. There is no dealing with them. It is up to us to get off our ass and demand their removal!!!!
Our computer has been correct all along. I stood up at the 2011 WEC in Philadelphia and warned that the war cycle turned up in 2014. That was correct, and it was the Ukrainian Revolution. In 2013, the year before, I warned that the computer had targeted Ukraine as the hot spot. These are NOT my personal forecasts. Nobody can be that correct from a “I think” perspective.
The computer has been forecasting World War III, and 2026 is a Panic Cycle. With Trump’s absurd 50-day ultimatum, we can expect that this will indeed start to heat up from August onward.
Russian President Vladimir Putin answered questions from the media earlier. One of the questions was about President Trump against the backdrop of peace efforts, the middle-east conflict and Ukraine.
President Putin’s response is very interesting. I am placing here as a datapoint for my own analysis without reading too much into it at the moment. All of the points are converging in one direction. WATCH:
BREAKING: Putin says he deeply respects Trump, whom he describes as a courageous person who’s trying to do the right thing by bringing about world peace.
“I believe he truly wants peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, though it may be harder than he expected.” pic.twitter.com/utXlbaiPNf
Congratulations Treepers. If you have followed the discussions [SEE HERE] you can see how we are on the cusp of a big geopolitical change. GET THE BBB PASSED and things begin to unfold. All of the datapoints go in one direction.
Posted originally on CTH on June 27, 2025 | Sundance
U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, who was appointed by Joe Biden, has departed her position in Moscow as U.S. Ambassador to Russia. There has been no announced name for replacement. [¹Get the friggin’ BBB passed!]
Remember, in the last 20+ years, no American official has spent more face-to-face time with Vladimir Putin than U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff. On behalf of President Trump Witkoff has held multiple meetings and discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin lasting more than 4 and 5 hours at a time. U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy was not present.
Do not forget, nor overlook this baseline fact.
MOSCOW, June 27 (Reuters) – Lynne Tracy, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, is leaving Moscow, her embassy said on Friday, noting she had served through one of the most strained periods in relations between Moscow and Washington.
The departure of a career diplomat appointed under the administration of former president Joe Biden comes as Russia and the United States discuss a potential reset in their ties which sharply deteriorated after Moscow launched its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022.
[…] “I am proud to have represented my country in Moscow during such a challenging time. As I leave Russia, I know that my colleagues at the embassy will continue to work to improve our relations and maintain ties with the Russian people,” the embassy cited Tracy as saying in a statement.
[¹We anticipate that once the BBB is completed, obviously there will be a celebration – a news cycle for the White House and legislative leadership to promote & celebrate, and then President Trump will likely shift straight into the details of the trade agreements being constructed in the background by Secretary Lutnick, Secretary Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer.
As the trade aspect is underway from the oval office, expect Secretary Rubio and Steve Witkoff to be reengaged with Ukraine-Russia. By mid July we should see multiple announcements of trade agreements, while simultaneously the foreign policy focus of Rubio and Witkoff should start to materialize into substantive change.]
Posted originally on Jun 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Russia is increasing production of its Oreshnik missile system as NATO pledges an additional $40 billion to Ukraine. The nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile is a powerful system with the capacity to travel 3,415 miles, effectively enabling Russia to strike anywhere in the West from Europe to the United States.
“Serial production of the latest Oreshnik medium-range missile system is under way,” Putin told a graduating class of military cadets in televised comments. The system became operational on November 21, 2024, and used in an attack whereby it carried multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) payload and six warheads that were each capable of releasing submunitions. The first use of the system involved dummy warheads that still caused destruction due to hypersonic kinetic energy. It is widely believed that the first use of the Orsenhnik system was more of a psychological move than an actual strike. In fact, Moscow notified Washington 30 minutes before deploying the missile. Moscow wanted to reveal to the world that it is ready to employ this new lethal technology.
This technology effectively intimidates the West with its long-range capabilities, although Moscow states it is only ramping up production of its mid-range missile system. Moscow needs the West and NATO to know that it has the capacity to attack if cornered. Putin has claimed that this weapon cannot be intercepted and has the capacity to evade missile defense systems. Traveling at 3 km per second, existing defense systems simply would not have the time to act. The Oreshnik can also be controlled mid-flight through aerodynamic control surfaces or gliding warheads, which masks its route. Putin has also stated that this system has the power to ruin underground targets without using nuclear payloads.
It remains to be seen whether the Oreshnik missile system is “impossible to intercept,” as Putin claims. The weight behind the increased production is a clear indicator that Russia is preparing to defend itself against NATO if needed. These weapons would benefit Russia in a global conflict and are not necessarily strategically necessary for its current battle in Ukraine.
Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Russia’s recent strike on Boeing facilities in Ukraine has been portrayed as an attack on American business. The Dow-listed company has maintained operations in Ukraine despite the ongoing war and partnered with Ukrainian aircraft manufacturer Antonov in 2023 on joint defense projects.
“This is not just an attack against Ukraine, but also an attack where American business is being hit,” Andy Hunder, President of the ACC in Ukraine, which represents nearly 700 U.S. and international investors and corporate members, told the Kyiv Independent. “This is a war against a world where American businesses are making money and thriving,” he added.
The strike took place after Ukraine’s massive attack during Operation Spiderweb that destroyed hundreds of Russian drones and 41 war planes across four Russian airbases.
The media is portraying the strike on Boeing as an attack on American business. Similarly, the media portrayed the attack on German defense company Rheinmetall, which opened a new facility in Ukraine last year to produce military vehicles, as an attack on German business. The fact of the matter is that this is a time of war, and Russia is targeting defense manufacturing facilities.
If nations began opening or expanding defense manufacturing operations, say in Iran, then Israel and the US would take that as a sign of aggression, if not a direct threat to national security. Russia has repeatedly stated Western aggression is escalating tensions and prolonging the war. So not only are the EU, UK, and US sending countless funding and equipment to Ukraine, but private ventures from these nations are developing almost every piece of warfare equipment there.
The target was not America or Germany; rather, the target was defense manufacturing facilities. Several Western arms manufacturing facilities have opened joint ventures in Ukraine. Germany plans to open additional Rheinmetall facilities. Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft is working with a private Ukrainian weapons manufacturer to build a service center in Ukraine. The KDNS is another German-Franco joint venture in Ukraine that is mass producing weapons to kill Russians. Denmark opened MyDefence to produce counter-drone technology. The United Kingdom has joint ventures BAE Systems and Babcock.
The United States remains the top supplier of arms to Ukraine through private arms manufacturers, supplying around 43% of the weapons used in warfare. However, the majority are produced domestically and imported to Ukraine. The Western-backed military-industrial complex has had a stronghold in Ukraine since the war began. These manufacturers were not operating in Ukraine before 2022. Russia naturally has an incentive to destroy these facilities, but that certainly does not indicate Russia is targeting European nations or the US.
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