Our Flawed Monetary System & Why it is Doomed


QUESTION: You mentioned that Rome had no national debt and no central bank. Exactly how did it function for 1,000 years?

JY

ANSWER: In addition to not having a national debt or a central bank, Rome had no police force or agency charged with enforcing the law. There were specific crimes against the state that would be prosecuted such as arson and treason. But the prosecution of a murder would be carried out by the family. The responsibility for enforcing the law thereby fell on the kin, tribe, gens and patron of the offended individual.

It was the King of England after Magna Carta who began to prosecute people for what was private crimes all so he could make money. By the time of the American Revolution, there were 240 felonies all of which carried the death penalty. So the king got to confiscate all your property and throw your family out on the street all based on what had historically been a private dispute.

As far as finances, the government simply minted coins to pay its expenses. As I have said, if we just created the money to fund the government rather than borrow, it would be far less inflationary. Because we borrow, with no intention of paying anything off, we must keep paying interest to roll the debt. That suppresses the economy, for it is competing with the private sector. It is a contributing factor as to why 70% of small business get turned down for loans that would expand the economy.

As shown here, the accumulative interest expenditures eventually exceed 70% of the total debt so the money never went to anything such as schools, roads, or social programs. If the government simply created the money, as did Rome, then the economy is segregated between public and private.

Today, the Fed raises interest rates to slow our spending yet it increases the spending of government. It is impossible for the economic theories of Keynes and Marx to ever function when the government is the single greatest borrower. Our current economic system is doomed. No rational person would EVER create such a completely flawed monetary system as this.

Spiral Panic


Armstrong Economics Models

Pujo Committee 1912

One of the often perplexing notions about markets is that there is some huge short-player who overpowers the market and forces it down. Every investigation since the notorious Pujo Hearingsduring the after math of the Panic of 1907 has begun looking for the mythical short player. Never has any investigation every found anyone. It was after a resolution introduced by congressman Charles Lindbergh Sr. to probe Wall Street assuming the crasg was abnormal and must have been caused by someone. Arsène Pujo (1861-1939) of Louisiana was given a congressional authorization to form a subcommittee of the House Committee on Banking and Currency. The lead prosecutor was Samuel Untermyer (1858-1940) who turned it into a ruthless mockery of justice and democracy. There was his famous interrogation of J.P. Morgan (1837-1913) that revealed how much this prosecutor did not know about finance.

  • Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?
  • Morgan:    No, sir. The first thing is character.
  • Untermyer: Before money or property?
  • Morgan:    Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom.

Predominately, the problem that confronts the majority is the complete failure to comprehend what actually causes a panic. The assumption that there is some BUYER who buys the high and carries that to a loss all the way down providing the mythical short-player vast profits is another myth. The buyers on the way down are typically short sellers taking a profit providing vital support. There are some courageous attempts at bottom picking. However, these tend to die out the longer the decline prevails.

Pecora Commission Hearings

 

To find that mythical huge short-player has always been the goal. Herbert Hoover in his memoirs admitted that he had received a telephone call saying there was some plat against him and a huge short position created the 1929 Crash to ruin the Republican Party. Hoover thus began an investigation in search of this mythical short-player. Nobody was found after hauling in everyone from Rockefeller on down. The was the Pecora Investigation which began on March 4, 1932 by the United States Senate Committee on Banking and Currency, While the object was to investigate the causes of the Wall Street Crash of 1929, nothing could be determined so Roosevelt later created the SEC, which has never been able to find the mythical short-player or prevent a single crash.. The name refers to the fourth and final chief counsel for the investigation, Ferdinand Pecora (1882-1971). What was actually revealed was the opposite – the investors were all long and suffered losses right from the biggest names on down. Hoover apologized saying that sometimes when a government becomes enraged, it burns down the barn to get the mouse. Pecora was only in it to become famous. He was appoint to the SEC, but quickly resigned because he was not chairman.

Every investigation wants to hang someone. It is not interested in actually trying to understand how the markets function. The cause of the panic is NOT the short-player, but the concentration of long-players. When everyone who has thought about buying has already bought and is now counting their future profits, the end is near. Lacking a new source of buyers, the market becomes tired. As that unfolds, we end up with a dangerous position. The slightest scare creates a stampede no different than a heard of zebra. One may hear a lion and it starts the run. The others run because of the crowd and may have no idea why. When the majority are long and start to sell, lacking new buyers, they begin a spiral downward. There can be the FLASH CRASH where there is simply no bid. It becomes a Spiral Panic with some buying coming mostly from shorts taking profits. If is is a slow spiral decline rather than an instant flash crash, then there may be some attempts at bottom picking. This type of spiral decline becomes like a relay race with one handing off the torch to the next.

Spiral Panic

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Capital Flows


Armstrong Economics Models

Intl-Capital-Flows 2

 

Introduction

The Evolution of the Global Economy

Cap-Flows

The economy is like a child. It grows, matures and evolves. Perhaps the greatest problem we face in attempting to reform our political-economy and move forward, has been the assumption that we are in control. We only to see things in our domestic political-economy and make our investments and policy decisions based upon this myopic domestic perspective. We assume governments are in control even though we do not understand what they are doing. They try desperately to influence what we think and do realizing that we actually respond to what we believe will happen in anticipation.

Yet the economy is far more complex and sophisticated. Everything is actually connected precisely as it is in nature for we are part of nature and that same grand design. The global economy is much like a rain forest with billions of lifeforms all depending on another. To analyze and model this kind of complex environmental and societal economic system requires research that views the system both as a whole and its component parts to reveal the interconnected data that lies hidden beneath the surface.  This allows for the combination of small influences to cascade into larger global trends just as removing one specie in a rain forest will set off a chain reaction since it is either a predator or the prey in relation to other species. This is why we need to see the flow of capital between all the players for linking the global data for the analysis reveals the whole complex system, and not just a subset of all the interesting operations and processes of the system.

We cannot reduce the trend to a single cause and effect. The global economy is akin to a rain forest with countless species interacting with one dependent upon another. Remove one, and you begin a chain reaction with unintended or knowable circumstances. We are incapable to constructing a rain forest because we do not understand all the subtle interconnections. Australian learned that lesson by importing one specie to accomplish one goal that introduced a predator altering the environmental balance. Likewise, altering taxes, trade regulations, and investment regulations alters capital flows that can be extremely destructive.

PlazaAccord

The Plaza accord starting the G5 (now G20) to manipulate the dollar down by 40% in order to reduce the US trade deficit, created the 1987 Crash and sent capital rushing back to Japan that they did not understand creating the 1989 Bubble.  The capital flow chaos unleashed by the G5 was devastating.

CapitalFlow-Japan87-89(2)

 

The G5 caused the capital withdraw from the USA and the 1987 Crash on a panic the dollar would decline by 40% and that set off a capital concentration back into Japan. As the yen rose and the Nikkei, that attracted foreign investors creating the Bubble in 1989. Capital then fled Japan and moved into South East Asia.

THLAND-Y

 

The capital then flows to South East Asia and created the peaks in 1994. That was the precise low in the S&P500 back in the USA. Capital then began to shift toward the US and European markets and this flow intensified because of the expect launch of the Euro in 1998. That led to the Currency Crisis of 1997.

1994 SP500

 

The turning point in 1994.25 marked the precise low in the US share market and the shift in capital flows out of South East Asia. Every single thing is connected on a global scale. We must come to understand that the economy has matured and evolved in ways we have ignored and remain oblivious to their development. In many ways, we still assume the world is flat economically. We fail to grasp the global economic evolution all around us because it confronts our politicians, economists, and the central bankers who prefer the limited domestic economy view in which they can be masters of the universe.

The evolution of our global economy is challenging the very ideas and theories of economics that deprives them of the power they desire as interventionists. If the economy is malleable, then they can control it. If the economy is interlinked, then we are all in this together and we cannot control the economy with raising taxes to create “social justice” without endangering the entire system.

Fish-Bowl-Economy

This basic assumption of a domestic economy within the grasp of government is what I call the Fish Bowl Economy entirely self-contained.  All economic theories are predicated upon this concept and justify government intervention to alter domestic trends that may be set in motion externally.  This domestic myopic view that supports centralized panning and governmental power was the foundation of communism that crumbled to dust. Government, assuming variable degrees of power, has been unable to prevent any crash and always seeks greater power in the aftermath with each event claiming they will prevent the next. They cannot see the global economy for it is beyond their power. This view of a domestic Fish Bowl Economy, excludes the possibility that a fish can leap from one bowl to the next. Therein lies the flaw in economic theories that justify government control.

(Full Work to be Published by 2014)

CapFlow-07-12

Historical Turning Points Economic Confidence Model 6000BC – 2072AD


Armstrong Economics Models

Historical Turning Points on the Economic Confidence Model

(6000 BC – 2072 AD)

 

Historical ECM Turning Points – PDF File

 

 

 

707-ECM59-67AD

 Wave    (#) 8.6 PI 2.15
940 2063.05 2065.2 2066.275 2067.35 2068.425 2069.5 2070.129 2070.495 2071.65
939 2054.45 2056.6 2057.675 2058.75 2059.825 2060.9 2061.529 2061.895 2063.05
938 2045.85 2048 2049.075 2050.15 2051.225 2052.3 2052.929 2053.295 2054.45
937 2037.25 2039.4 2040.475 2041.55 2042.625 2043.7 2044.329 2044.695 2045.85
936 2028.65 2030.8 2031.875 2032.95 2034.025 2035.1 2035.729 2036.095 2037.25
935 2020.05 2022.2 2023.275 2024.35 2025.425 2026.5 2027.129 2027.495 2028.65
934 2011.45 2013.6 2014.675 2015.75 2016.825 2017.9 2018.529 2018.895 2020.05
933 2002.85 2005 2006.075 2007.15 2008.225 2009.3 2009.929 2010.295 2011.45
932 1994.25 1996.4 1997.475 1998.55 1999.625 2000.7 2001.329 2001.695 2002.85
931 1985.65 1987.8 1988.875 1989.95 1991.025 1992.1 1992.729 1993.095 1994.25
930 1977.05 1979.2 1980.275 1981.35 1982.425 1983.5 1984.129 1984.495 1985.65
929 1968.45 1970.6 1971.675 1972.75 1973.825 1974.9 1975.529 1975.895 1977.05
928 1959.85 1962 1963.075 1964.15 1965.225 1966.3 1966.929 1967.295 1968.45
927 1951.25 1953.4 1954.475 1955.55 1956.625 1957.7 1958.329 1958.695 1959.85
926 1942.65 1944.8 1945.875 1946.95 1948.025 1949.1 1949.729 1950.095 1951.25
925 1934.05 1936.2 1937.275 1938.35 1939.425 1940.5 1941.129 1941.495 1942.65
924 1925.45 1927.6 1928.675 1929.75 1930.825 1931.9 1932.529 1932.895 1934.05
923 1916.85 1919 1920.075 1921.15 1922.225 1923.3 1923.929 1924.295 1925.45
922 1908.25 1910.4 1911.475 1912.55 1913.625 1914.7 1915.329 1915.695 1916.85
921 1899.65 1901.8 1902.875 1903.95 1905.025 1906.1 1906.729 1907.095 1908.25
920 1891.05 1893.2 1894.275 1895.35 1896.425 1897.5 1898.129 1898.495 1899.65
919 1882.45 1884.6 1885.675 1886.75 1887.825 1888.9 1889.529 1889.895 1891.05
918 1873.85 1876 1877.075 1878.15 1879.225 1880.3 1880.929 1881.295 1882.45
917 1865.25 1867.4 1868.475 1869.55 1870.625 1871.7 1872.329 1872.695 1873.85
916 1856.65 1858.8 1859.875 1860.95 1862.025 1863.1 1863.729 1864.095 1865.25
915 1848.05 1850.2 1851.275 1852.35 1853.425 1854.5 1855.129 1855.495 1856.65
914 1839.45 1841.6 1842.675 1843.75 1844.825 1845.9 1846.529 1846.895 1848.05
913 1830.85 1833 1834.075 1835.15 1836.225 1837.3 1837.929 1838.295 1839.45
912 1822.25 1824.4 1825.475 1826.55 1827.625 1828.7 1829.329 1829.695 1830.85
911 1813.65 1815.8 1816.875 1817.95 1819.025 1820.1 1820.729 1821.095 1822.25
910 1805.05 1807.2 1808.275 1809.35 1810.425 1811.5 1812.129 1812.495 1813.65
909 1796.45 1798.6 1799.675 1800.75 1801.825 1802.9 1803.529 1803.895 1805.05
908 1787.85 1790 1791.075 1792.15 1793.225 1794.3 1794.929 1795.295 1796.45
907 1779.25 1781.4 1782.475 1783.55 1784.625 1785.7 1786.329 1786.695 1787.85
906 1770.65 1772.8 1773.875 1774.95 1776.025 1777.1 1777.729 1778.095 1779.25
905 1762.05 1764.2 1765.275 1766.35 1767.425 1768.5 1769.129 1769.495 1770.65
904 1753.45 1755.6 1756.675 1757.75 1758.825 1759.9 1760.529 1760.895 1762.05
903 1744.85 1747 1748.075 1749.15 1750.225 1751.3 1751.929 1752.295 1753.45
902 1736.25 1738.4 1739.475 1740.55 1741.625 1742.7 1743.329 1743.695 1744.85
901 1727.65 1729.8 1730.875 1731.95 1733.025 1734.1 1734.729 1735.095 1736.25
900 1719.05 1721.2 1722.275 1723.35 1724.425 1725.5 1726.129 1726.495 1727.65
899 1710.45 1712.6 1713.675 1714.75 1715.825 1716.9 1717.529 1717.895 1719.05
898 1701.85 1704 1705.075 1706.15 1707.225 1708.3 1708.929 1709.295 1710.45
897 1693.25 1695.4 1696.475 1697.55 1698.625 1699.7 1700.329 1700.695 1701.85
896 1684.65 1686.8 1687.875 1688.95 1690.025 1691.1 1691.729 1692.095 1693.25
895 1676.05 1678.2 1679.275 1680.35 1681.425 1682.5 1683.129 1683.495 1684.65
894 1667.45 1669.6 1670.675 1671.75 1672.825 1673.9 1674.529 1674.895 1676.05
893 1658.85 1661 1662.075 1663.15 1664.225 1665.3 1665.929 1666.295 1667.45
892 1650.25 1652.4 1653.475 1654.55 1655.625 1656.7 1657.329 1657.695 1658.85
891 1641.65 1643.8 1644.875 1645.95 1647.025 1648.1 1648.729 1649.095 1650.25
890 1633.05 1635.2 1636.275 1637.35 1638.425 1639.5 1640.129 1640.495 1641.65
889 1624.45 1626.6 1627.675 1628.75 1629.825 1630.9 1631.529 1631.895 1633.05
888 1615.85 1618 1619.075 1620.15 1621.225 1622.3 1622.929 1623.295 1624.45
887 1607.25 1609.4 1610.475 1611.55 1612.625 1613.7 1614.329 1614.695 1615.85
886 1598.65 1600.8 1601.875 1602.95 1604.025 1605.1 1605.729 1606.095 1607.25
885 1590.05 1592.2 1593.275 1594.35 1595.425 1596.5 1597.129 1597.495 1598.65
884 1581.45 1583.6 1584.675 1585.75 1586.825 1587.9 1588.529 1588.895 1590.05
883 1572.85 1575 1576.075 1577.15 1578.225 1579.3 1579.929 1580.295 1581.45
882 1564.25 1566.4 1567.475 1568.55 1569.625 1570.7 1571.329 1571.695 1572.85
881 1555.65 1557.8 1558.875 1559.95 1561.025 1562.1 1562.729 1563.095 1564.25
880 1547.05 1549.2 1550.275 1551.35 1552.425 1553.5 1554.129 1554.495 1555.65
879 1538.45 1540.6 1541.675 1542.75 1543.825 1544.9 1545.529 1545.895 1547.05
878 1529.85 1532 1533.075 1534.15 1535.225 1536.3 1536.929 1537.295 1538.45
877 1521.25 1523.4 1524.475 1525.55 1526.625 1527.7 1528.329 1528.695 1529.85
876 1512.65 1514.8 1515.875 1516.95 1518.025 1519.1 1519.729 1520.095 1521.25
875 1504.05 1506.2 1507.275 1508.35 1509.425 1510.5 1511.129 1511.495 1512.65
874 1495.45 1497.6 1498.675 1499.75 1500.825 1501.9 1502.529 1502.895 1504.05
873 1486.85 1489 1490.075 1491.15 1492.225 1493.3 1493.929 1494.295 1495.45
872 1478.25 1480.4 1481.475 1482.55 1483.625 1484.7 1485.329 1485.695 1486.85
871 1469.65 1471.8 1472.875 1473.95 1475.025 1476.1 1476.729 1477.095 1478.25
870 1461.05 1463.2 1464.275 1465.35 1466.425 1467.5 1468.129 1468.495 1469.65
869 1452.45 1454.6 1455.675 1456.75 1457.825 1458.9 1459.529 1459.895 1461.05
868 1443.85 1446 1447.075 1448.15 1449.225 1450.3 1450.929 1451.295 1452.45
867 1435.25 1437.4 1438.475 1439.55 1440.625 1441.7 1442.329 1442.695 1443.85
866 1426.65 1428.8 1429.875 1430.95 1432.025 1433.1 1433.729 1434.095 1435.25
865 1418.05 1420.2 1421.275 1422.35 1423.425 1424.5 1425.129 1425.495 1426.65
864 1409.45 1411.6 1412.675 1413.75 1414.825 1415.9 1416.529 1416.895 1418.05
863 1400.85 1403 1404.075 1405.15 1406.225 1407.3 1407.929 1408.295 1409.45
862 1392.25 1394.4 1395.475 1396.55 1397.625 1398.7 1399.329 1399.695 1400.85
861 1383.65 1385.8 1386.875 1387.95 1389.025 1390.1 1390.729 1391.095 1392.25
860 1375.05 1377.2 1378.275 1379.35 1380.425 1381.5 1382.129 1382.495 1383.65
859 1366.45 1368.6 1369.675 1370.75 1371.825 1372.9 1373.529 1373.895 1375.05
858 1357.85 1360 1361.075 1362.15 1363.225 1364.3 1364.929 1365.295 1366.45
857 1349.25 1351.4 1352.475 1353.55 1354.625 1355.7 1356.329 1356.695 1357.85
856 1340.65 1342.8 1343.875 1344.95 1346.025 1347.1 1347.729 1348.095 1349.25
855 1332.05 1334.2 1335.275 1336.35 1337.425 1338.5 1339.129 1339.495 1340.65
854 1323.45 1325.6 1326.675 1327.75 1328.825 1329.9 1330.529 1330.895 1332.05
853 1314.85 1317 1318.075 1319.15 1320.225 1321.3 1321.929 1322.295 1323.45
852 1306.25 1308.4 1309.475 1310.55 1311.625 1312.7 1313.329 1313.695 1314.85
851 1297.65 1299.8 1300.875 1301.95 1303.025 1304.1 1304.729 1305.095 1306.25
850 1289.05 1291.2 1292.275 1293.35 1294.425 1295.5 1296.129 1296.495 1297.65
849 1280.45 1282.6 1283.675 1284.75 1285.825 1286.9 1287.529 1287.895 1289.05
848 1271.85 1274 1275.075 1276.15 1277.225 1278.3 1278.929 1279.295 1280.45
847 1263.25 1265.4 1266.475 1267.55 1268.625 1269.7 1270.329 1270.695 1271.85
846 1254.65 1256.8 1257.875 1258.95 1260.025 1261.1 1261.729 1262.095 1263.25
845 1246.05 1248.2 1249.275 1250.35 1251.425 1252.5 1253.129 1253.495 1254.65
844 1237.45 1239.6 1240.675 1241.75 1242.825 1243.9 1244.529 1244.895 1246.05
843 1228.85 1231 1232.075 1233.15 1234.225 1235.3 1235.929 1236.295 1237.45
842 1220.25 1222.4 1223.475 1224.55 1225.625 1226.7 1227.329 1227.695 1228.85
841 1211.65 1213.8 1214.875 1215.95 1217.025 1218.1 1218.729 1219.095 1220.25
840 1203.05 1205.2 1206.275 1207.35 1208.425 1209.5 1210.129 1210.495 1211.65
839 1194.45 1196.6 1197.675 1198.75 1199.825 1200.9 1201.529 1201.895 1203.05
838 1185.85 1188 1189.075 1190.15 1191.225 1192.3 1192.929 1193.295 1194.45
837 1177.25 1179.4 1180.475 1181.55 1182.625 1183.7 1184.329 1184.695 1185.85
836 1168.65 1170.8 1171.875 1172.95 1174.025 1175.1 1175.729 1176.095 1177.25
835 1160.05 1162.2 1163.275 1164.35 1165.425 1166.5 1167.129 1167.495 1168.65
834 1151.45 1153.6 1154.675 1155.75 1156.825 1157.9 1158.529 1158.895 1160.05
833 1142.85 1145 1146.075 1147.15 1148.225 1149.3 1149.929 1150.295 1151.45
832 1134.25 1136.4 1137.475 1138.55 1139.625 1140.7 1141.329 1141.695 1142.85
831 1125.65 1127.8 1128.875 1129.95 1131.025 1132.1 1132.729 1133.095 1134.25
830 1117.05 1119.2 1120.275 1121.35 1122.425 1123.5 1124.129 1124.495 1125.65
829 1108.45 1110.6 1111.675 1112.75 1113.825 1114.9 1115.529 1115.895 1117.05
828 1099.85 1102 1103.075 1104.15 1105.225 1106.3 1106.929 1107.295 1108.45
827 1091.25 1093.4 1094.475 1095.55 1096.625 1097.7 1098.329 1098.695 1099.85
826 1082.65 1084.8 1085.875 1086.95 1088.025 1089.1 1089.729 1090.095 1091.25
825 1074.05 1076.2 1077.275 1078.35 1079.425 1080.5 1081.129 1081.495 1082.65
824 1065.45 1067.6 1068.675 1069.75 1070.825 1071.9 1072.529 1072.895 1074.05
823 1056.85 1059 1060.075 1061.15 1062.225 1063.3 1063.929 1064.295 1065.45
822 1048.25 1050.4 1051.475 1052.55 1053.625 1054.7 1055.329 1055.695 1056.85
821 1039.65 1041.8 1042.875 1043.95 1045.025 1046.1 1046.729 1047.095 1048.25
820 1031.05 1033.2 1034.275 1035.35 1036.425 1037.5 1038.129 1038.495 1039.65
819 1022.45 1024.6 1025.675 1026.75 1027.825 1028.9 1029.529 1029.895 1031.05
818 1013.85 1016 1017.075 1018.15 1019.225 1020.3 1020.929 1021.295 1022.45
817 1005.25 1007.4 1008.475 1009.55 1010.625 1011.7 1012.329 1012.695 1013.85
816 996.65 998.8 999.875 1000.95 1002.025 1003.1 1003.729 1004.095 1005.25
815 988.05 990.2 991.275 992.35 993.425 994.5 995.129 995.495 996.65
814 979.45 981.6 982.675 983.75 984.825 985.9 986.529 986.895 988.05
813 970.85 973 974.075 975.15 976.225 977.3 977.929 978.295 979.45
812 962.25 964.4 965.475 966.55 967.625 968.7 969.329 969.695 970.85
811 953.65 955.8 956.875 957.95 959.025 960.1 960.729 961.095 962.25
810 945.05 947.2 948.275 949.35 950.425 951.5 952.129 952.495 953.65
809 936.45 938.6 939.675 940.75 941.825 942.9 943.529 943.895 945.05
808 927.85 930 931.075 932.15 933.225 934.3 934.929 935.295 936.45
807 919.25 921.4 922.475 923.55 924.625 925.7 926.329 926.695 927.85
806 910.65 912.8 913.875 914.95 916.025 917.1 917.729 918.095 919.25
805 902.05 904.2 905.275 906.35 907.425 908.5 909.129 909.495 910.65
804 893.45 895.6 896.675 897.75 898.825 899.9 900.529 900.895 902.05
803 884.85 887 888.075 889.15 890.225 891.3 891.929 892.295 893.45
802 876.25 878.4 879.475 880.55 881.625 882.7 883.329 883.695 884.85
801 867.65 869.8 870.875 871.95 873.025 874.1 874.729 875.095 876.25
800 859.05 861.2 862.275 863.35 864.425 865.5 866.129 866.495 867.65
799 850.45 852.6 853.675 854.75 855.825 856.9 857.529 857.895 859.05
798 841.85 844 845.075 846.15 847.225 848.3 848.929 849.295 850.45
797 833.25 835.4 836.475 837.55 838.625 839.7 840.329 840.695 841.85
796 824.65 826.8 827.875 828.95 830.025 831.1 831.729 832.095 833.25
795 816.05 818.2 819.275 820.35 821.425 822.5 823.129 823.495 824.65
794 807.45 809.6 810.675 811.75 812.825 813.9 814.529 814.895 816.05
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Farage Interview on the Collapse of Eurozone


Nigel will be speaking at this year’s World Economic Conference in Rome. Click here for details.

95% of Bitcoin Trading is Fake?


 

There is an interesting concern rising from the too numerous exchanges for Bitcoin. A study has revealed that the market is being manipulated to create the impression that there is a $6 billion market trading every day. This manipulation is all about boosting the image of volume using what the study shows are known as “wash trades” where the same party is buying and selling at the very same price. The survey, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, echoes concerns by regulators that cryptocurrency markets are still ripe for manipulation.

The San Francisco-based firm compared at Coinbase Pro, which reports about $27 million in average daily volume in bitcoin. It’s median “spread,” between the price a seller wants and the price a buyer wants, for bitcoin was about 1 cent. That scenario passed Bitwise’s test for having real volume. The SEC has highlighted this risk of manipulation as the very reason for rejecting any further applications for other cryptocurrencies ETFs.

Clearly, this also explains why trading volume for regulated Bitcoin futures has seemed weak and a small fraction of these unregulated exchanges. Chicago-based CME and Cboe began listing Bitcoin derivatives at the end of 2017 but have had significantly lower volumes than the $6 billion reported by unregulated exchanges. The largest single trade was $320 million. The open interest on the CME is only 3,671 contracts, which are composed of 5 Bitcoins per contract.

 

The Business Cycle


Armstrong Economics Models

Defining the Business Cycle

BusinessCycle-Waves of Creative Destruction

By Martin Armstrong

There are those that adamantly deny the existence of a Business Cycle for one simple reason; if a regular Business Cycle exists, then man and his government, driven by special interests, are incapable of manipulating its outcome. The entire foundation of Marxism was the recognition of the Business Cycle and the idea that it could be eliminated by confiscating all the wealth of the people. Even John Maynard Keynes(1883–1946) followed this basic tenet of Karl Marx (1818–1883) and assumed that government had a role it could play in preventing the Business Cycle from rising and falling. Yet in the midst of such adversity, what these ideas ignored is that man learns from his mistakes as an individual as well as a group. It has been through the Business Cycle that all advancement and thus economic evolution emerges. Joseph Schumpeter (1883–1950) called these Business Cycle events – Waves of Creative Destruction. Unless oil rises in price to excessively high price levels, alternative fuels will never be developed. There must be a viable economic foundation to open the door to whatever new alternative might exist. This becomes the economic evolution within society.

 

This assumption that man is even capable of altering the Business Cycle at will is the delusion of demigods. Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed in his 1979 Rediscovery of the Business Cycle:

“Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment. … By the early 1970s, the persistence of inflationary pressures, even in the face of mild recession, began to flash some danger signals; the responses of the economy to the twisting of the dials of monetary and fiscal policy no longer seemed quite so predictable. But it was not until the events of 1974 and 1975, when a recession sprung on an unsuspecting world with an intensity unmatched in the post-World War II period, that the lessons of the ‘New Economics’ were seriously challenged.”

Burns Arthur

Keynes-5Even the previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve Arthur Burns (1904-1987) shared the same view. Government with all its power and endorsement of John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) who argued that the economy can be managed to eliminate the Business Cycle, has been unable to prevent recessions and economic booms.

AmBusCycle-1

Indeed, the Business Cycle is as regular as the four seasons for even weather is incorporated within it. As weather has fluctuated according to a 300-year cycle in the energy output of the sun, mankind has been driven hither and yon in search of better weather and food supply. Thus, migration throughout the world has also been a byproduct of the Business Cycle. Even if we look at the economic composition of society since the late 1700s, we can see how nothing remains stagnant but is always captured within the fluctuations of the Business Cycle.

CW-FORCETo a large extent, society was still 70% agrarian in major countries during the mid-19th century. By 1900, still about 41% of the civil work force was employed in agriculture, which fell to 3% finally by 1980. Consequently, one can neither manipulate the weather nor dictate to God what he prefers to see economically. Simply put, you cannot pass a law to prevent droughts or make it rain.

Bus-Cyc1795-1945

During the 19th century, there were great waves of innovation that certainly helped to bring about recoveries within the U.S. economy. Nonetheless, while these stages of the Industrial Revolution were unfolding to propel the economy out of the depths of recession or depression, money supply was also unpredictable. Because the monetary standard was gold at the time, this cause havoc with the economy for great waves of inflation were unleashed upon the population purely as a factor of new discovery. There was the 1849 Gold Rush is California. This was followed by the Australian Gold Rush where between 1851 and 1861, Australia produced one third of the world’s new gold supply. The silver discoveries in Colorado took place in 1864 and this eventually fueled the huge inflationary boom flooding the economy with silver dollars after 1878 that led to the Panic of 1893. Then in Alaska gold was discovered in large quantities in the Klondike on August 16, 1896. This created another great expansion of money supply. These were similar devastating economic booms and busts  to the great import of precious metals from the New World by Spain that sparked massive inflation for Europe during the 16th and 17th Centuries that resulted in the bankruptcy of Spain.

ECO-1895-MA

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a refined theory of the Business Cycle by Martin Armstrong. The Business Cycle has been observed by many over the centuries and the driving mechanism is indeed complex, but it certainly incorporates many aspects from the repetitive forces of nature as in the changing seasons to the human passions of man that to a large extent result in the repetitive forces driven by the passions of man.

PRESELEC-3

Everything is incorporated within the Business Cycle from weather to politics. Nothing moves in a straight line. Even your heart beats in a cycle. Nothing is free of a cycle as long as it lives.

Dec&Fall-Silver

If we look at the Roman Empire, we see the same cyclical forces at work. There is in fact no Empire, Nation, or City-State that has survived the ravages of time and circumstance for all societies are buried within a common grave

Understanding the ECM


From Armstrong Economics Models

Martin Armstrong We are Now Alone

The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.

The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.

The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration. Hence, 1929 was a concentration of capital in the USA as money fled Europe and correctly so since they by and large defaulted on their national debts in 1931. This drove the dollar to historic highs, confused politicians who then adopted protectionism, all because capital was fleeing. Today, capital is fleeing Europe in fear of defaults once again.

Its proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

This is why there was a bubble top in US in 1929 and 1989 in Japan. It is global capital flows. Each market has its own cycle that is separate and unique. It is when that individual market lines up with the ECM that you get the big moves.


The 2007.15 turning point picked precisely to the day the peak in the real estate indexes. That was the real turning point. The pressed called it Armstrong’s Revenge. But this is simply how these function. Capital concentrates into a single sector within a single region. It is that concentration of capital that makes that market explode.

The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. This is a frequency that is inherent in everything and is fractal in nature. Its proper use is determining the shifts in capital flows to yield the boom bust cycle in the economy (global investment). It is by no means a universal model for every market. Cycle duration in Agriculture tend to be shorter and more volatile because they are also lined up with weather. The markets in financials (stocks & bonds) tend to be the longer than commodities, with the longest cycle duration being real estate.

This cycle has been present even in ancient data. So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live

The Economic Confidence Model


From Armstrong Economics Models

ECM-Wave-2011-2020The business Cycle is something everyone admits exists, yet they refuse to accept that it can be defined and forecast with accuracy.  The future to most seems to be an intangible part of time itself.  It has no shape, no definition, no substance, yet politicians claim vote for them and they will force the future to comply with your desires. Nonetheless, simultaneously they argue that the future cannot be measured for we do not know its limitations or its boundaries. The future is very much an intangible, yet not when it comes to soliciting votes.

Fortuna-2Yet is it true that we do not know whether there lies ahead thousands of years or if tomorrow may exhaust the supply of time held within future’s grasp. The Roman goddess Fortuna was pictured holding a cornucopia in one arm with the other on the rudder of ship symbolizing she could change the course of your future any time she so pleased. Only the past and the present are tangible. They can be measured, studied, written about, philosophized about or even ignored for that matter. Yet the past and present remain the quantified tangible part of time itself for they are the only surviving evidence that time even exists.

Burns Arthur

Nevertheless, there were two former Federal Reserve Chairmen Arthur Burns and Paul Volcker have concede that the business has defeated all attempt to manipulate society. Paul Volcker even called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle The entire theory that government can steer the economy has been proven to be so wrong it is no longer funny.

Throughout recorded time, man has pursued an unrelenting search of some method, some scheme that would steal the very secrets held captive by the future. Mankind’s pursuit of the future has not only caused him to search the far corners of the world, but that of the universe as well.

Delphi-5
In ancient times, men of celebrated wisdom and stature would go to great lengths to travel from the remotest parts of the Hellenistic world to listen to the riddles spoken by a virgin in the lofty mountain tops at Delphi. The tradition of consulting the oracle at Delphi persisted throughout the centuries. The oracle of Delphi compelled even the emperors of Rome hundreds of years later to embark on that very same pilgrimage in search of the answers to the future.

Within every society, man has sought after the illusive secrets that he has envisioned being held captive in a golden cage by the future. Human kind has sought not merely oracles, but fortune tellers, sibyls, soothsayers, seers, mystics, and some noted charlatans and has listened to the interpretations of everything from tarot cards, the entrails of animals they kill, the flight of an owl, to the path of a comet in the night sky. The secrets of the future have forged the human soul into the supernatural.

From a purely objective viewpoint, humankind has stumbled upon curious means that have had some success. Astrology has divided man and his very personality into twelve sun signs. Upon close inspection, although this science is far from being completely accurate, one will notice a sense of striking reality. Parts of this are amazingly accurate in assigning traits and even predicting the future in regards to an individual’s emotions.

Too often we are compelled to make fun of or shun new concepts. Many people believe completely in the occult and will testify to the accuracy of tarot cards and astrological charts. It is said that Napoleon and Hitler both directed their many battles in coordination with the readings and predictions derived from the stars. Such methods obviously are not completely accurate or today we would have been ruled by Adolph Hitler, Jr. or Napoleon X.

 

But nevertheless, there is some sense of truth that lies hidden within the stars. Is it possible that man did indeed stumble gracefully upon some mystical force? The universe itself was, after all, conceived upon a pattern of cycle. If it were not for this cyclical pattern, we would be unable to predict such common place events as winter, summer, spring and fall. Even everyday events such as watching the weather on television comes from a a study of its past or cyclical movements. With the study of the past, man has attained some success in forecasting the future.

The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.

The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.

The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration. Hence, 1929 was a concentration of capital in the USA as money fled Europe and correctly so since they by and large defaulted on their national debts in 1931. This drove the dollar to historic highs, confused politicians who then adopted protectionism, all because capital was fleeing. Today, capital is fleeing Europe in fear of defaults once again.

Its proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

This is why there was a bubble top in US in 1929 and 1989 in Japan. It is global capital flows. Each market has its own cycle that is separate and unique. It is when that individual market lines up with the ECM that you get the big moves.


The 2007.15 turning point picked precisely to the day the peak in the real estate indexes. That was the real turning point. The pressed called it Armstrong’s Revenge. But this is simply how these function. Capital concentrates into a single sector within a single region. It is that concentration of capital that makes that market explode.

The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. This is a frequency that is inherent in everything and is fractal in nature. Its proper use is determining the shifts in capital flows to yield the boom bust cycle in the economy (global investment). It is by no means a universal model for every market. Cycle duration in Agriculture tend to be shorter and more volatile because they are also lined up with weather. The markets in financials (stocks & bonds) tend to be the longer than commodities, with the longest cycle duration being real estate.

This cycle has been present even in ancient data. So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live.

Bitcoin v Gold


QUESTION: Do you think that Bitcoin will replace gold as some people claim it is some new reserve asset?

Thank you for being the voice of reason in the middle of all these people p[reaching their own position.

GD

ANSWER: That is really a bizarre question. I do not see how that is possible. As far as it becoming a reserve asset that surpasses everything else, I would have to say that is not plausible. These are proposals propagated clearly by retail people involved in the conspiracy world. Even if we look at the German hyperinflation, the PRIMARY assets to survive was real estate. That became the backing of the replacement currency.

 

Money itself is NEVER a store of wealth. It rises and falls against tangible assets. I have stated plenty of times that Bitcoin is a trading vehicle — nothing more. Just look at the chart. This fluctuates like everything else. That alone proves it will never be some mythical store of value or reserve assets. Our Energy Models have turned negative so it has squeezed out most of the excess which would allow it to make a rally if it exceeds the Weekly Bullish Reversals (see Socrates report for further details — available to subscribers only).

It does not matter what you are talking about. ABSOLUTELY NO instrument will ever be the main “reserve asset” for people will always disagree. There will be people who cling to gold, others to stocks or real estate, and then we have the sublime fools who will hold government debt. You will never convince everyone to create a single reserve asset.

These are usually the rantings of people unfamiliar with how the world economy really functions. Even central banks hold dollars but in bonds to earn interest. They do not hold physical paper dollars. When they were leasing out gold to earn some income, these same people accused them of suppressing the market in a conspiracy.

Institutions need to earn some income. This is why they do not hold gold. Gold shares they can’t hold but bullion must be lent out to earn income. How are they going to hold Bitcoin that pays no interest and fluctuates like any other commodity?

What these people preach sounds great to the retail market who is just looking to make capital gains. But institutions cannot function that way. Pension funds need income to make payments. They can no more hold Bitcoin than gold bullion in a vault without income.