Posted originally on Aug 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
America has lost 1,544,700 trucking jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. There are 30,000 less truckers on the road now compared to July 2023. Demand has not waned and this will undoubtedly contribute to supply chain slowdowns.
The trucking transportation sector has been declining steadily for the past four months, based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We saw how terribly governments treated truckers amid the pandemic, deeming them essential employees but forcing them to forego their medical autonomy. The average age for a driver is between 46 to 60 and there is a prominent age gap within the industry.
The New York Times released a piece in 2022 claiming that the issue is based on the truck driver lifestyle that entails long weeks or months on the road and often sleeping in your truck. I have a friend who is a trucker who often calls his truck a prison on wheels. As one driver told the New York Times: ““The lifestyle probably is the first thing that smacks people in the face,” he says. “You know what it does to you. You’re thinking about it all the time. We’re tired. Our bodies are starting to go. Our bladders have been put to the test. And no exercise. We end up with all types of heart and other health ailments. You can’t truly fathom what it’s done to you.”
Regulations have caused an increasingly challenging environment for drivers. These regulations also differ by state, with many drivers wishing to avoid certain states altogether. Trucking is lumped in with warehousing in most government data. Warehousing jobs rose 10,700 last month to 1,794,900. However, that was the largest spike in employment since March 2022. Transportation and Warehousing as a collective now has an unemployment rate of 5.7%, up from 4.8% the month prior.
Around 72% of American freight is moved via trucks. The US Census Bureau states that there are 3.5 million truckers, with 8.4 million people employed in trucking related positions suck as laborers, operators, and sales workers.
Simply put – people no longer wish to begin careers in the trucking industry. This presents a major problem as the median aged driver is not far off from retirement, but people are leaving the industry in droves beforehand.
Posted originally on Aug 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
The United States has once again willingly abandoned weapons and ammunition in a foreign nation. Niger has been in a state of upheaval due to economic conditions and a corrupt government. The incoming regime has asked the US military to evacuate, and likely to their surprise, the US government has agreed to abandon Niger’s Air Base 201.
The Pentagon spent $110 million to build the base in 2019 and has been spending about $30 million per year on operations. The strategic position helped the US fight terror networks that have migrated from the Middle East. Somehow, this new incoming regime is holding more power than the established US government, and the Pentagon was unable to successfully negotiate keeping this base. “This does make safeguarding U.S. security interests in the Sahel that much harder,” Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman of the Air Force, tasked with overseeing the withdrawal, told the Times in July. “The threats from ISIS and Al Qaeda in the region are getting worse every day.”
The Biden Administration is absent. No one is in charge. Kamala may be parading around as the new elect, but she has yet to hold an official conference. And where is Joe? He’s still technically the president of the United States but has been MIA. Everyone simply accepts he is “in a basement in Delaware,” while the government breaks into fractions that are utterly incompetent. The US government did not even give its own military the opportunity to collect the materials left behind. Biden’s foreign policy is simply to abandon ship and deal with the consequences later when our own weapons are used against our troops.
Posted originally on Aug 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Kamala has a plan to conquer inflation – increase government spending and raise taxes! She has been avoiding the topic in recent speeches, but her past comments can give us some insight.
Before the government passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest government spending package in our nation’s history, Harris praised the Build Back Better agenda for working to lower costs for the average American. The Inflation Reduction Act was originally the Build Back Better Act and the Democrats were seeking $2.2 trillion in funding. “And, Build Back Better is not going to cost anything — we’re paying for it.So when we can get Build Back Better passed, and we are optimistic that we will, the American people will see costs actually reduced around some of the most essential services that they need to take care of their basic responsibilities, including issues like child care and elder care, and also preschool,” Harris said.
Harris clearly does not understand how these social programs are funded. “We” are paying for the act, as in we the people. The Inflation Reduction Act not only added to the national deficit but contributed to overall inflation. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the proposal was a trojan horse to push through the climate change agenda, and Harris has selected a climate zealot as her VP pick.
Harris sponsored the Green New Deal when in the Senate. She originally supported a ban on fracking before backtracking. As attorney general for California, Harris sued major oil companies for climate change disinformation. She has pledged her allegiance to the Paris climate agreement that aims to reduce emissions by 2035. Again, this all ties into the Build Back Better agenda put forth under the Great Reset. Spending endlessly on saving the planet is merely a rouse for needless government spending and reducing our freedoms by citing something that cannot be questioned in today’s political climate.
Harris has already sought for a corporate tax rate of 35%, higher than Biden’s 28% and far beyond any other developed nation. She does not seem to grasp international business or trade. She has focused on price gouging, insisting the corporations are somehow immune from inflation and passing those costs along to the consumer.
The migrant crisis has certainly put America in dire conditions. We simply cannot afford millions of new residents who live on taxpayer subsidies. I suppose it is pointless mentioning Kamala’s run as the border tzar as she completely ignored our nation being invaded.
War is the primary driver of inflation, and no establishment install would be complete unless they supported foreign wars that in no way involved America. Zelensky and Harris have met half a dozen times, and she will continue to provide him blank checks. Harris would like to involve the US in Israel’s war as well, providing vague statements to the public since half of her voter base is pro-Hamas. She skipped out on Bibi’s speech in the US Congress for a sorority event.
Inflation and the entire cost of living crisis is the number one issue that American voters want resolved. Kamala Harris has no plan to combat inflation. She would like to back climate change initiatives and fund foreign wars, which all but guarantees inflation would rise under a Kamala presidency, followed by our taxes rising as those with no basic concept of economics believe the people should pay for government’s fiscal irresponsibility.
Raskin is an angry bitter man of intemperate disposition, the archetype nihilist. As hate consumes him, his physical persona changes with the manifestation of evil enterprise. While his cancer is in reported remission, I would anticipate it to resurface in early 2025, after Baal has finished using him.
All of that said, Raskin is pledging to purposefully trigger a civil war within the United States if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. {Direct Rumble Link Here} Raskin is prepared to work with Democrats and block any certification of any vote that has President Trump declared the winner.
The basic auspices of this nonsensical 14th Amendment, Section 3, argument is that congress can block any person from office who was a federal officer and previously swore an oath to the constitution, then engaged in rebellion and insurrection. It’s the same lawfare argument used by Colorado, Maine and Illinois in an attempt to keep President Trump off the ballot.
“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.” ~ [Citation]
Raskin sat on the House Select Jan. 6 Committee, and also served as an impeachment manager during the second impeachment effort against President Trump over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. “The House of Representatives already impeached Donald Trump for participating in insurrection by inciting it,” Raskin previously said.
Watch this guy. Raskin throws around “civil war” like it’s a willy-nilly disposable line without the major consequences he would trigger.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Neocon Republicans have no problem sending Americans to their death for their personal hatreds and vendettas. The fact that they are coming out and claiming to be Republicans for Harris confirms this election is really all about World War III. Former US Rep. Adam Kinzinger announced via X, writing: “There is nothing ‘conservative’ about Donald Trump. Conservatives believe in the Constitution, not a ‘man’s’ ego. Endorsing American democracy and the future today and leaving the past in the dust. I’m endorsing @KamalaHarris.”
It was Adam Kinzinger who was thrown out of the House by voters because he is a vile Neocon who belongs in prison under the hate crimes laws. This is the guy who claimed that we can destroy Russia and conquer that country in just 3 days. These are the people who our computer-warned years ago that the United States would be defeated and the financial capital of the world would migrate to China. God help us – these are really evil people.
This election is all about World War III. This is not an election between two people. This is an election between the Neocons vs the American People. Harris is just another Biden who will do as commanded. Her performance at the Munich Security Conference confirmed that when she repeated what she was told to say – Ukraine should join NATO, violating every treaty since 1991. The sad part is that she was clueless about the significance of what she said. It should have been the Secretary of State at that conference. They sent Kamala so she would say things even Blinkin could not say.
Bill Kristol, whose father started the Neocon movement from inside the Democrats, turned his magazine into an anti-Trump propaganda piece and lost all his support and now plays out scenarios of how to defeat Trump even if he wins. This is the guy who advocated invading Iraq within his book, which has proven to be utter nonsense.
Posted originally on the CTH on August 4, 2024 | Sundance
I’m just catching up on some events that I have missed. The first press conference by the U.S. Secret Service about the Trump assassination attempt was alarming. This is the first time the media had to question USSS since the attempted assassination in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Fox News host Jesse Watters does a good job summarizing the event and encapsulating the largest takeaways from the briefing.
Posted originally on Aug 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
I have been warned that our computer does NOT show that Ukraine will survive. You should NOT send anything to Ukraine, and you certainly should NOT invest in any nonsense to rebuild Ukraine. The nation with the MOST corrupt politicians, all with hidden offshore accounts, has always been Ukraine. As I have said, we had two employees in Ukraine – one in Kiev and the other in Donestk; the latter translated the move of the Forecaster into Russia so it could be shown in Russia. The two would never even talk to each other.
Our computer has forecasted that Ukraine has gone FLAT LINE, like a brainwave of a person in emergency care at a hospital. DO NOT INVEST ANYTHING in Ukraine – you will NEVER get anything back –EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! More funds always go missing in Ukraine. There is NEVER any accountability. Ukraine is the MOST corrupt society on the face of the planet – PERIOD. Even Forbeshas said Ukraine owes it to itself to clean up corruption. This is why Zelensky has a core of American bodyguards because what I hear from Ukrainians is that if he was on fire, they would not urinate on him until he was dead. Even CNN, which is a cheerleader for World War III, has had to report on the corruption in Ukraine. Even the more respected Foreign Policy magazine reported that Ukraine’s ongoing corruption issues have had on U.S. congressional Republican support for the country.
The Ukrainian people need to rise up and save their country from total annihilation. Ukraine remains the most corrupt government in the world, and they are selling the Ukrainian people for personal wealth and greed with ZERO remorse for their nation or their people. Ukrainian politicians topped all other countries for corruption. Even in the Pandora Papers, 38 Ukrainian politicians have to hide cash offshore – the largest number of corrupt politicians in any other country. Zelenskyy’s office tried to justify his use of offshore companies for himself as protecting him against pro-Russian forces, following leaked revelations in the Pandora Papers.
Zelensky signed a new law on August 1st that suspended all public debt payments until October. He suspended debt before. The Zelensky now has the authority to postpone payments on external public debt until restructuring negotiations are seen through. Zelensky has suspended elections because he knows the people would throw him out of office so fast – he has sought to maintain a total dictatorship.
Zelensky’s “bodyguard” is far more dark than people understand. Maksym Donets was appointed as his chief bodyguard, provided by the very oligarch who funded his campaign, the tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky, who also just happened to hire Biden’s son for the board of his company Barisa. This appointment not only underscores the deep links between Zelensky and Kolomoisky, but there is yet another layer of invisible protection from the people who really want to assassinate Zelensky – Ukrainians, not Russians.
In December 2020, Biden acknowledged in a statement that he was the subject of a federal investigation into his taxes. NBC News was first to report that an ex-business partner had warned Biden he should amend his tax returns to disclose $400,000 in income from the Ukrainian firm, Burisma. Even the US State Department eventually barred Ihor Kolomoisky from the USA, saying he “undermined the rule of law” in Ukraine after ensuring Zelensky won.
While Maksym Donets appeared to be the face of Zelensky’s bodyguard, sources have stated that the core of the bodyguard is American because they do not trust Ukrainians. On the exact day of the turning point of May 7th, two Ukrainian military officers were arrested for conspiring to kill Zelensky, and he immediately claimed it was a Russian plot. Sorry – it was Ukrainian.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I had to write to say thank you so much for everything you do. When Trump was indicted, you said sell and get out of New York. Your advice has always been discussed with our board, and the decision was made to sell in light of your ECM also turning in 2024. We managed to sell our commercial real estate in New York City, and based on the auction that just took place, you saved our company and every employee in our company. With 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan that was originally sold for $332 million in 2006 and now sold at auction for $8.5 million, reality has struck with a vengeance. Your forecast for New York City will be forever remembered among our ranks. We owe you more than a dinner and a drink.
Thank you ever so much, SC
COMMENT #2: Yesterday, the New York Times ran a sobering real-estate story headlined, “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” Apparently, inflation hit everything else but missed big-city commercial real estate. The building in the story, which used to headquarter Sports Illustrated, last sold in 2006 —admittedly at peak market— for $332 million dollars. On Wednesday, it sold at auction for only $8 million, a stunning 98% discount.MSREPLY: On Sepetember 2nd, 2023, we warned on the private blog that the “real estate market, 2023 should produce the highest annual closing.” With the ECM turning down into 2028 and war on the horizon, what New York has done to Trump is a warning to get the hell out of New York. This decision was as bad as putting sanctions on Russia, which became a warning to everyone else: if you do not do as the American Neocons command, they will remove you from the SWIFT system.This event in New York City will send tremors throughout the nation. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) peaked on our models in 2020 in REAL TERMS with COVID. Ever since the need for office space has taken a nosedive, as I have said, if I were Trump, I would have handed them an office building for the fine and then bought it back at 10% when they auctioned it off. With its political vendetta against Trump, New York has only made New York City the leader in the decline, and we have NOT seen the bottom yet. This will send panic among the smart people, and this will cause further contagion to spread to residential property, which has been propped up because of jobs in New York City, which we still show are in crash mode into 2028/2029.
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Banks’ CRE loan books’ primary concern is exposure to the office and retail sectors. Based on our sources, we would estimate that banks’ CRE lending financed 46% of office and retail loans which most likely comes in between $700-725 billion. Added to this concern is the concentration of CRE loans on the balance sheets of regional banks. It appears that CRE loans on the books of regional banks amount to about 65% of non-multifamily CRE loans. After this auction, many banks are going to be deeply concerned about the realistic valuation of CRE properties. The risk is that this will further undermine the belief in bank stability going forward.
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Smaller regional banks will most likely pull back from CRE, which will undermine values going forward. Large banks or insurance companies are unlikely candidates to start lending into the CRE sector. The more likely lenders into CRE will probably be private credit investors, but that will also come at higher rates. The total CRE market is valued at over $10 trillion, with the office sector being the largest sector at around 24-25%.
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Refinancing Challenges for CMBS
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There there is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market that accounts for 20% of the office and retail loans. That comes in around $300 billion+, of which about $22 billion in office loans maturing here in 2024. Typically, up to 50% of that would not be a problem to roll. However, after this sale at auction, many will have second thoughts. Our sources place about 95% of those loans are only backed by Class B and Class C offices. This auction will weaken the funding potential for the lower-quality buildings, and this will accelerate the risk of strategic default into especially 2026.
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When we dig deeper, the 60-day-plus delinquency rate is only about 10%, but it is rising rapidly. This implies that we should expect more stress in the CMBS market between now and 2026. The vacancy rate in major cities nationwide is approaching 20%. In the case of New York City, this particular building had a vacancy rate of about two-thirds. The rents they collected from the remaining tenants were not even enough to cover the ground lease, no less the taxes and upkeep of the building. The losses were catastrophic, especially since they indicted Trump in New York City.
On top of all of that, then you have the flight from the Democratic Blue States to the Red Republican States post-COVID. We addressed the Commerical Real Estate on June 8th, 2023. Where vacancy rates in San Francisco were approaching 30%, in Miami they were the lowest nationally at just 15.8%. We wrote back then:
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“During the first quarter of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20% nationally for the first time really since the Great Depression. Then there are cities that have embraced WOKE to their detriment and are witnessing the worst. In San Francisco, the vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 climbed to 29.4%, up from 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Manhattan has a vacancy rate of n the first quarter of 2023 at 22.2% according to Cushman & Wakefield. Dallas has been absorbing the flight from California so its vacancy rate is 18.7% according to Cushman & Wakefield. The commercial vacancy rate in Miami, Florida office market has an overall vacancy which has been declining counter-trend to the rest of the nation falling now to 15.8% according to Cushman & Wakefield. In Chicago, Class-A vacancy rate stands at 19.3% while Class-B vacancy jumped to 28.3% according to Cushman & Wakefield.”
–For anyone thinking about leaving major centers like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, it does not matter how low rates might go; there will be no buyers, and you will be stuck where you are until after 2032. You may have already missed the last train.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The private debt crisis is becoming apparent in America after car repossessions jumped 23% during the first half of 2024. Data shows that 1.6 million Americans will have their car repossessed by the bank before the end of the year, a slight increase from the 1.5 million autos repossessed in 2023 and a drastic upturn from the 1.1 million in 2021.
Obviously, the cost of purchasing a car have drastically risen with inflation, interest hikes, and supply chain shortages. Americans simply cannot afford new autos and car dealerships can do nothing to entice purchases. New car inventory in the US rose 36% this year, close to February 2021 levels before the supply chain crisis put a dent in imports. Yet, the average list price of a new car is $49,096 and far more than the average American can afford. The average new vehicle will sit in a dealer’s lot for 65 days, a 41% annual increase.
Dealerships are hardly asking for a downpayment these days unless someone has horrid credit. Even putting a few grand down will only take off about $20 per monthly payment. The average new car costs about $735 monthly based on data from Experian, and $523 monthly on used models. The average American simply is not educated in finance. Autos are behind mortgages in the largest share of personal household debt and there is a portion of the population who do not understand what they can actually afford.
The average American now borrows around $40,634 for new vehicles and $26,073 for used vehicles. About 9.2% of all consumer debt is through autos alone.
There was that viral story from April of a woman purchasing a Chevy Tahoe for $80,000 – without factoring in the interest on all household vehicles. Her husband purchased 2020 GMC Sierra 1500 AT4 for $78,000 in August 2022 and she simply could not understand why the payments on the truck were more than on the Tahoe. Well, the husband’s 14% rate on the vehicle placed their monthly payment or the truck $1,600. I recalled reading comments suggesting the family simply let the bank repo one of the cars as if that could be a valid option for personal finance.
Cox Automotive believes the trend of repossessing cars will increase into 2025 when they anticipate. 1.7 million cars being repossessed. As of Q1 2024, US household debt stood at $1.77 trillion; $12.44 trillion held in mortgage debt, $1.62 trillion in autos, $1.12 trillion in credit card debt, and $543 billion in other forms. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and others recently reported a stunning $4,139,000,000 loss in unrecoverable debt.
The banks will come after their assets if a payment is missed, with some only waiting 30 days after a missed payment to seize property. They may then ask for full payment to return the car which is simply not happening in these situations. While there are some who cannot compute their monthly payment, others are now living paycheck-to-paycheck and are one large bill or missed paycheck away from losing their shirts. Then we have agencies telling the public across Build Back Better nations that they will soon need to purchase an EV to adhere to the climate emergency. Cheaper alternatives from China have been slapped with 100% tariffs, and there are no alternatives. Governments are do nothing to assist this growing problem as the ultimate goal is to eliminate private car ownership under the premise of the Great Reset.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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