Posted originally on the CTH on May 31, 2024 | Sundance

According to Politico and the New York Times the Biden administration has given Ukraine approval to launch U.S provided missiles into Russia.  {LINK} This is a major escalation of NATO engagement, likely intended to provoke Russia to strike alternate targets.  The people inside Ukraine responsible for using these U.S. provided weapons are likely not Ukranian.

CTH is in an unusually serendipitous position to analyze how Russia is responding to this shift in USA position.  The morale inside Russia is very high amid the military age population.  The recruitment efforts of the Russian government appear to be numerous and very effective.

There are thousands of newly enlisted military personnel very visible in/around training facilities.  There is no apparent tension discernable. Overall Russia appears to take great pride in their military, and it is considered a matter of honor and pride to support them.

WASHINGTON – The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”

[…] In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

It’s a stunning shift the administration initially said would escalate the war by more directly involving the U.S. in the fight. But worsening conditions for Ukraine on the battlefield –– namely Russia’s advances and improved position in Kharkiv –– led the president to change his mind. (read more)

You can tell from the general vibe amid the officials of government, Russia is not playing around with their military approach toward previous NATO encroachment or the provocations by the U.S.  The sense is that Russia is in this for the long haul and their structural changes in the aftermath of the sanction regime are not temporary.  Russians overall are hard and resilient to the reality of things as they are, not as they would wish them to be.

Russia appears to be entirely prepared financially, sociologically and economically to remain disconnected from the “West.”  Asia and India are filling the economic void created by Western sanctions.  Amid ordinary life, the general Russian sentiment seems to be one of acceptance to the geopolitical isolation.

In recent weeks the push toward further conflict with Russia seemed to be diminishing; however, this direct action by Biden and the State Dept puts the USA (NATO) in a more aggressive posture.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposes the escalation by NATO.

WASHINGTON – […] During a Friday interview on state radio, Orbán said that French President Emmanuel Macron’s stance that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine, as well as a NATO proposal that would allow Kyiv to strike military bases inside Russia with sophisticated long-range weapons provided by Western partners, risked escalating the war in Ukraine into a global conflict.

“War is a monster that is constantly hungry, it must be fed, and it must be fed with money. And I see that the Americans and the Democratic government of the United States, and the leaders of the European Union, are ready to feed it,” he said. (read more)