The proposed billionaire tax has caussed $1 trillion in potential tax revenue to flee California. The billionaire taxwould require California residents worth over $1 billion to pay a one-time 5% fee on all assets, including unrealized gains.
Google co-founder Larry Page fled the state and took his $276 billion net worth with him. Page moved his family office, Koop LLC, from California to Delaware and began purchasing property in Florida at the end of 2025. Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, worth around $245 billion, sold his home in San Francisco in favor of Hawaii. Venture capitalist Peter Thiel cut ties with California, taking his $26 billion and counting, opting to relocate in Miami. Craft Ventures co-founder David Sacks fled California and opened an office in Austin, Texas. Sacks wrote on social media that “Miami will replace NYC as the finance capital and Austin will replace SF (San Francisco) as the tech capital.”
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya believes California has lost$1 trillion in billionaire wealth because 50% of billionaire-driven potential tax revenue has left the state. Even if the bill does not pass, the fact that it was proposed and highly considered has unsettled capital and smart money will not remain where it is not welcome.
California heavily relies on top-earners to cover budget deficits. Last January, the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) found that California is facing “double-digit operating deficits in the years to come”as a result of reckless government spending. For the 2025-26 period, the LOA believes the state may have a balanced budget, but calls Newsom’s spending and policies highly unpredictable.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING is to blame for the budget failures. Every analysis says the same thing. The LAO suggests: “Legislature would need to address in the coming years, for example, by reducing spending, increasing taxes, shifting costs, or using more reserves. The magnitude of these deficits also indicates that, without other changes to spending or revenues, the state does not have capacity for new commitments.”
California was banking on billionaires to cover 90% of the state’s health care costs. The 2025-26 budget allocated $188.1 billion in total ($42.1 billion General Fund) to Medi-Cal, representing a steep $4.5 billion General Fund increase from the previous year. Medi-Cal is expected to expand to $222.4 billion in FY2026-27. Administration costs alone account for nearly 17% of health spending, with costs increasing by 23% in 2023 alone. The state was expecting the billionaires’ tax to cover $22.5 billion in annual healthcare program costs. The funds have left the state and will not return.
The state was also planning to redirect $2.5 billion from billionaires’ annual contributions to food and education assistance programs. Governments will never understand that they cannot rob Peter to pay Paul without repercussions. Again, the proposal alone was enough to uproot capital, businesses, jobs, development, and innovation.
Posted originally on Jan 13, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Russia is slinking back into its old Soviet Union methods of spying on citizens. Beginning on January 1, 2026, internet providers in Russia are now required to store all text, audio, and video messages for three years. The Center for Countering Disinformation has access to every Russian’s digital footprint.
Per usual, authorities claim the measure is to protect against fraud. The true motive is control, instant punishment, and the notion that citizens will begin to self-censor their private correspondence to avoid criticizing the Kremlin.
The Roskomnadzor (the federal communications regulator) has the authority to disconnect the Russian internet segment (Runet) from external sources at whim. Regulators may block or permanently ban individual websites or services if they believe they are a threat to national security. Telecom operators must issue commands and control network traffic in accordance with the Roskomnadzor. The Russian internet will be completely isolated from the global network.
Fines and penalties have been inconsequential despite increasing severity. As of September 1, 2025, Russians face a 5,000 ruble fine for “intentionally searching extremist materials.” This was significant as it was the first time Russia punished citizens for viewing prohibited online content.
Over one million websites have been analyzed for pretrial blocking by Roskomnadzor and the Prosecutor General’s Office. Over 150 media organizations are currently blocked in Russia. The government has repeatedly shut down the internet on a regional basis throughout the Ukraine war, with authorities claiming the blackouts are needed to support drone warfare.
Social media channels such as Twitter/X, Reddit, META/Facebook, LinkedIn, SnapChat, and Discord are inaccessible. YouTube and TikTok may be used on a limited basis. Russians are forbidden to view BBC News, Deutsche Welle, Le Monde, Der Spiegel, and other news outlets. VPNs are illegal, although widely used, and Russia ranked #1 in the top internet outages in 2025.
Russia ranked first worldwide in total internet disruptions in 2025, according to Top10VPN’s Cost of Internet Shutdowns report. Analysts recorded 37,166 hours of outages, citing their scale and technical complexity. pic.twitter.com/amRIN2yAke
Russians all know that Big Brother is monitoring them online and tapping their phones. People in former communist nations do not trust the government. They’ve been taught throughout the generations to keep a guard up. Unlike those in the West, the Russians and Chinese understand that the mainstream media is merely a propaganda tool. The information displayed on your TV screen or the front page of the newspaper has been pre-approved by the government; otherwise, it would not be permitted to air. I can proudly say that this website is one of them, and we are permitted to operate in both Russia and China.
The Kremlin and every other government authority has unlimited access to text messages and online searches. You can delete your texts and clear your search history, but government can still see your complete digital footprint. Governments suedinternet and phone providers years ago to ensure they had full backdoor access to every outlet. Social media outlets were compromised, and those who failed to comply like TikTok were either banned or sold out. Digital privacy is not a protected right. Modern civilization depends on the internet for communication and information, making it a prime target for government surveillance. We will see governments continually restrict internet access in the years ahead as each nation aims to create a digital firewall to protect its citizens from sharing information, or worse, collaborating against the regimes controlling them.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
President Trump’s announcement that he wants to push the U.S. defense budget to $1.5 trillion in 2027 is being framed as a necessary response to “very troubled and dangerous times” and a way to build what he calls a “Dream Military.” He claims that tariff revenues generated by his trade policies can help fund the increase and even allow for debt reduction while maintaining economic growth. There is a reason that Washington wants to increase its budget drastically, and the timing aligns perfectly with our computer model.
The proposal represents a roughly 50% increase from the $901 billion defense budget approved for 2026. The massive increase in funding represents a country preparing for a major geopolitical event. America stands alone. It can no longer trust the neocons in NATO, besides, America was the one primarily funding the organization. All of America’s allies are on the fence in terms of continued support, with the majority showing intense disapproval for recent military ventures.
Europe’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war cannot be ignored. Protests have erupted in France and Germany to declare that the people do not wish to die for Ukraine, but they have no say. The EU is run by neocons who are eagerly awaiting their turn to enter the conflict directly. China, the Middle East, South America, and Europe—conflicts are emerging in every corner of the globe, and unsurprisingly, America has been at the forefront.
An additional $500 million ensures the United States retains its reputation for having the most advanced military in the world, one would hope, but Chinahas been rapidly advancing its military capabilities in preparation for a grand-scale conflict. Russia has been testing nuclear missiles, some powerful enough to create toxic radioactive tsunami waves that can wipe cities off the map.
We are approaching a critical turning point in the Economic Confidence Model. Confidence will continue to decline as war nears, and capital will continue to seek refuge in private assets. When confidence declines, politicians turn to external enemies to justify internal failures. War becomes a tool to distract from fiscal mismanagement and to consolidate power. The 2026 panic cycle aligns with a historic pattern in which sovereign debt crises and geopolitical conflict converge. This is not the beginning of war; it is the escalation phase.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT:
We had a similar referendum past November initiated by the young extreme leftists for a 50% (!) inheritance tax for wealthy above $50m – despite the fact that we pay already a wealth tax every year!
Well Swiss people realised that the billionaires have feets and can walk away similar to what you write in the California case:
Some 84.1% of Swiss voters said no to the civic duty proposal, while 78.3% rejected the inheritance tax initiative.
REPLY:
Switzerland became wealthy precisely because it respected property rights, capital mobility, and legal stability. The moment you threaten those pillars, the entire foundation collapses. The nation caved to the European Union in 2015 and abolished banking secrecy, the primary reason that people chose to keep capital in Switzerland. Switzerland abandoned its neutrality stance on war for the European Union, but internally, politicians are looking to shake down citizens for money as their own policies have caused capital to flee.
In November, radical leftist groups pushed not one but two initiatives that reflected the same ideological fantasy now sweeping California, New York, and Brussels. One proposal demanded a 50% inheritance tax on fortunes above CHF 50 million, while Switzerland already imposes a wealth tax every single year. The other initiative framed redistribution as a so-called “civic duty,” attempting to dress up confiscation as morality. More than 84% of Swiss voters rejected the civic duty proposal, and over 78% rejected the inheritance tax.
Wealth taxes merely shrink the tax base, reduce reinvestment, and push entrepreneurs offshore. Inheritance taxes punish saving or building something intended to last beyond a lifetime. Switzerland currently has a decentralized inheritance tax system that attracts the wealthy. The nation has already lost its destination for capital by handing over all banking information to centralized governments. Adolf Hitler deemed it illegal for Germans to store money outside the country, leading the way to Swiss banking. Decades later, centralized governments deem it illegal to store money anywhere that they cannot track and tax it. Christine Lagarde began the SWIFT confiscation when she was the head of the IMF. Lagarde threatened all tax havens to turn over accounts or be removed from SWIFT. Not even Hitler violated the sovereignty of Switzerland where those in government today are far more ruthless and threaten other nations with ultimatums.
Why would the government be entitled to half of someone’s fortune? The government collects its share when you earn your wealth. They tax the assets you hold, tax capital once realized, levy your property annually, and then, even in death, the government demands more. Family businesses cannot operate long-term under these conditions, and to the government’s advantage, families cannot grow in power. Inheritance taxes are not designed to fund the government; rather, they are intended to prevent intergenerational wealth transfer and keep citizens dependent on the state.
Switzerland has begun phasing in the global minimum tax rate of 15% for multinational enterprises with revenues exceeding 750 million euros. A vote will be held this year to determine whether married couples should be taxed independently. VAT tax will be expanded to online digital services such as streaming platforms. Governments are assessing every possible angle to steal from citizens. The world will witness higher tax rates and excessive authoritarian controls on capital as we move toward the end of the current cycle.
Great Britain has caved to Islamist radicals to such an extreme extent that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced it must limit its funding for universities in the United Kingdom. The Muslim Brotherhood is active in the UK as the government refuses to ban the radical group. The UAE is legitimately concerned that young men will go abroad to the UK and return with radicalized, jihadist values.
The Under the Terrorism Act (2000) states that organizations can be banned if they are “concerned in terrorism.” A 2015 review found that the Muslim Brotherhood has an “ambiguous relationship with violent extremism,” meaning that the group as a whole cannot be disbanded. “The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism,” former PM David Cameron stated, with “possible” being the keyword. The UK decided to merely monitor the group despite known ties to terrorism. “Certain factions of the Muslim Brotherhood maintain a notably unclear relationship with violent extremism. Both as a doctrine and as a network, it has served as a pathway for some individuals and groups that have subsequently participated in violence and terrorism,” Cameron later said.
The joke Vance made about Britain being the first Islamist country to have a nuclear weapon was close to the truth. The sophisticated Muslim countries have long criticised the form of Islam we allow. Now they won’t send their kids to uni here in case they come back as terrorists. https://t.co/AQisFoxuLapic.twitter.com/sQMur8EvMV
The UAE, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia banned the Muslim Brotherhood due to its threat to regional stability. Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and other well-known terrorists were radicalized in their youth by the Brotherhood. The group has openly funded Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Hamas. Its sole purpose is to provide a bridge for young Islamists to integrate into jihadist groups.
Between 2023-2024, 70 students at UK universities were reported to the Prevent Deradicalisation Programme due to ties to “Islamist radicalization.” As such, the UAE will no longer recognize degrees from unapproved universities, limiting the list of potential schools for Emiratis. Abu Dhabi determined British universities needed to be completely excluded from state scholarships.
How could this happen in the UK? The global caliphate is seemingly opening headquarters in London where the government permits a “moral collapse,” as Nigel Farage has stated. “If you want to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood, you have to start in London,” Farage declared.Posted Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The Department of Justice has opened a CRIMINAL investigation against Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. I have totally disagreed with trump on interest rates and he assumes that the Fed can just lower rates counter-trend to the world economy. I understand he is acting on what was taught in school under Keynesian Economics. But that has totally failed and even Keynes admitted before he died that he was wrong.
Using the Department of Just as the Biden Administration did against him is one thing when we are looking at the attempt by the Neocons to prevent him from office with the outrageous Russia Gate that they totally manufactured. But to allow the Department of Justice to use the criminal law to get interest rates lower is a new low. Powell stated:
“Those are pretexts,” Powell said. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”
It was 75 years ago when President Truman sought to intimidate the Fed to cap interest rates because he wanted to wage war in Korea. It did not work. If Trump thinks he can replace Powell with a chimpanzee who does whatever he says, we are in for a real crisis post-2027. Jerome Powell’s current term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ends on May 15th, 2026. The computer has been showing a sharp rise in volatility post May 2026. Trump will be confronted with the free market which he cannot control.
Posted originally on Jan 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday rejected the latest US-backed offering to end the Russia-Ukraine war, issuing a damming rebuff that illustrates that Putin would have to be insane to accept any peace deal at this stage in the game with Ukraine because it would NEVER resolve this conflict. Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed the US-European proposal for security assurances for Ukraine, saying the protection plan amounts to “a true axis of war.” This is what I warned about on the Private Blog.
I warned that with the UK and France sending in troops as soon as a ceasefire is agreed was a guarantee that no such ceasefire would take place for this would be effectively sending in NATO troops into Ukraine. Europe has ZERO intension of EVER seeking peace or a normal relationship with Russia returning to the world economy. This is a guarantee of PERMANENT war. Russia’s comment was clear:
“The document turned out to be extremely far from a peace settlement. The declaration is not aimed at achieving a lasting peace and security but rather at continuing the militarization, escalation and further conflict aggravation.” “Its core element is the deployment of ‘a multinational force’ on Ukrainian territory that the coalition will have to form to contribute to the ‘rebuilding’ of the Ukrainian armed forces and ‘support deterrence’ following the cessation of the hostilities.”
The Ukrainian long-range strike campaign has continued hitting Russian oil, military and infrastructure targets. Importantly, for a 48-hour period this week, the Ukrainians were able to shut down all of the airports in the Moscow region and force the Russians to shut down their mobile phone networks across the same area. Given the massive population of the Russian capital, this will be noticed by the populace. Ukraine is is claiming it is defeating Russia shutting down Moscow’s airports and mobile networks for two days. That’s the action of a country with operational capability striking deep into enemy territory with impunity using targeting from the United States and UK. Clearly, this is like hiring a contract killer to eliminate someone and then claiming you did not pull the trigger. Ukraine has no long-range targeting capability without eyes in the sky.
The Venezuela Invasion:
The Monroe Doctrine was a cornerstone U.S. foreign policy statement, proclaimed by President James Monroe in his annual address to Congress on December 2nd, 1823. It declared the Western Hemisphere closed to future European colonization and interference, while pledging that the United States would not interfere in existing European colonies or in the internal affairs of Europe. Donald Trump has essentially asserted the same doctrine targeting both China and Russia to expel them from this hemisphere.
Ironically, to be objective, that justifies Russia taking all of Ukraine and it also justifies China taking Taiwan. We can’t have it both ways. But the Neocons see the US as dominating the world whereas Trump’s Chief of Staff Miller recognized that the world is divided among three empires – US, Russia, and China.
China’s Foreign Ministry has responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he’d be “very unhappy” if Beijing attacked Taiwan.
“Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. How to resolve the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese ourselves. … This is China’s internal affair that brooks no external interference.”
What China will do now is most likely, if I were them, would impose a total embargo preventing anything from leaving or entering. I would suspect that it would take about 90 days. I would suspect that China has just been given the Green Light thanks to Donald’s Doctrine. They could act as soon as April.
The Tanker Seizure:
American Coast Guard and military forces (assisted by the UK) undertook a boarding operation to seize one of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers, the Bella 1, in the north Atlantic. This vessel was sanctioned by the U.S. under its counter-Iran sanctions, aimed at stopping Iran from fueling instability in the Middle East through the profits of illegal oil sales and was linked to international terrorism and crime including Hezbollah. Yet this is debatable. The ship went through the Suez Canal and a ship of this size could only do so if it was empty.
The United States with the aid of the UK just boarded and seized a Russian-flagged vessel on the high seas. Russia did nothing but the US agreed to send the two Russian crew members to Russia. This was clearly a strong-arm tactic against Russia. John Healey made the dumbest bullshit excuse I have ever heard in 50 years. How does an empty tanker on its way to Russia threaten Britain and the British people? This is the most absurd excuse I have ever heard. Then any empty tanker on its way to to or from Russia on the high seas threatens the British people?
The Strategic Message: Weakness Disguised as Strength
NATO is now claiming that Putin fired an Oreshnik at Lviv—a city less than 70 kilometers from the Polish border and NATO territory. The message was supposed to be: “We have hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles and we’re willing to use them close to NATO borders. Be afraid.” They are spinning this as Russia needed to demonstrate military capability because its credibility had collapsed across multiple theaters simultaneously. Venezuela, Syria, Iran—every Russian client is falling or under severe pressure. The shadow fleet is being seized. Ukrainian drones are shutting down Moscow. NATO insists that their military analysts are skeptical of Oreshnik’s actual battlefield value. While Putin keeps warning about nuclear war, they insist that this is all hype and pay no attention because they can take Russia with one hand tied behind their back.
The Oreshnik strike is the military equivalent of shouting “I’m still relevant!” while everyone watches Putin lose influence globally. NATO wasn’t impressed. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the strike shows that “Putin doesn’t want peace” and called it “meant as a warning to Europe and to the U.S.” Kallas is as ruthless as Zelensky. She represents why there can NEVER be any peace with Russia.
Kallas has openly called for the destruction of Russia. She has stated that Russia is too big and needs to be broken up. She personally hates Russians not much different from Zelensky. This remains as a major obstacle to peace.
The U.S.-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine have entered a pivotal stage and is exposing that there will NEVER be peace between the EU abd Russia. This is critical. Peace negotiations are at this point pointless for the EU is seeking to install NATO troops into Ukraine under the pretense of peace-keeping when in fact it was Kiev that started this war 0 not Putin nor Russia.
John McCain, the godfather of Neocons, was there advocating the revolution in 2014 and lied to the people telling them this was about them and nobody else and it was about the peace that they deserved. There was peace with Russia. I believe McCain hated Russians because he was captured in Vietnam and was broken reading propaganda for the Vietnamese.
Robert McNamara admitted before he died that they assumed Russia was behind Vietnam but they were wrong. This has infected the Neocons who have grown up hating Russians all on a false assumption. This is what colored the Cold War and it is to this day warning that the European Union is seeking World War III because of people like Kallas who are wrapped up in personal hatred that she cannot see that she is condemning Europe and this EU experiment to its final destruction.
The Larger Pattern: The Cycle of Escalation
Russia used the Oreshnik missile on Lviv overnight January 8-9, 2026, hitting an underground gas storage facility in the first ballistic missile strike on Ukraine’s western region. This marks only the second use of Russia’s newest intermediate-range weapon system.Lviv is significant because it’s Ukraine’s westernmost major city—less than 70 kilometers from the border with the European Union. Hitting it with a nuclear-capable missile sends an unmistakable message to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania: You’re within range despite NATO saying don’t worry.
But don’t be distracted by the technical capabilities or the psychological warfare. Focus on the strategic context: Russia deployed this weapon after suffering humiliating failures in Venezuela, Syria, and even Moscow itself. The strike represents Russia responding to the Donald Doctrine. NATO wants to claim this is an act of desperation or weakness. But this is boasting their strength and desire to invade Russia as soon as they can.
NATO insists that the mathematics show that Russia’s global position is weakening across multiple theaters simultaneously. Its client states are falling. Its deterrence is failing. Its economic warfare through shadow fleets is being countered. And its response is to fire expensive, irreplaceable missiles at gas storage facilities to prove it’s still dangerous.
However, if we assume that Russia is now weakened dramatically, then the behavior of a declining power trying to convince everyone—including itself—that it still matters is far worse. Like a wounded animal, it will fight to the death and is most dangerous when cornered. There are two sides to that coin.
The cycle suggests further escalation is coming. NATO likes to project Russia is just a injured fly to be swatted. When Kallas tried to threaten China to abandon Russia, Wang Yi respectfully stated that China had no intention of standing idly by and watching Russia lose. He stated that China believes that if Russia were defeated, the EU and NATO would turn on China next. This idea that the EU and NATO can destroy and break up Russia with no other impact is the linear thinking of madmen.
The NEOCONS have won. They used Ukraine to revive the Cold War that they want to make RED HOT. This has all been forecast by our computer and it is certainly nothing I would like to see. This is not my OPINION. I have long hoped that if I scream loud enough then perhaps I could prevent it. That has been a fool’s dream. I have never been able to defeat the computer yet.
Watch the next days carefully into February and then April followed by June/July. If peace talks are more likely to break down, and I would expect more Oreshnik strikes or similar escalatory moves. I just find it curious that NATO keeps claiming Russia is weak and there is no threat. They seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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