What Happens When Governments Cannot Sell Their Debt?


Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

1894 20 c Italy

QUESTION: Marty, you have mentioned that at some point in history, when Italy could not pay off its 30-day short-term paper because it could not sell the new debt to pay off the old, as they do today, they converted 30-day paper to long-term. I cannot find the details on that. Could you please explain this, as it is a risk here in Europe today?

Bret

ANSWER: Yes, that was during the Panic of 1893 that became a Global Contagion. Italy, when faced with similar circumstances to what we see today, did not officially default in the classic sense of failing to pay. Still, it executed a coercive debt restructuring that is widely considered a selective default or soft default in 1893-1894. This is what we refer to as a forced loan.

Italy was facing a run on its short-term debt and unable to roll over the maturing paper because there were no buyers, the Italian government, led by Prime Minister Francesco Crispi, did not formally declare a default. Instead, it passed a law (Legge 11 luglio 1894, n. 386) that forcibly converted the short-term Buoni del Tesoro into a new long-term bond.

The law mandated that holders of the short-term Treasury notes could not be repaid in cash upon maturity. Instead, they were forced to exchange their maturing short-term paper for a new long-term government bond, called the “Rendita Italiana 5%” (5% Italian Annuity).

This new bond had a 5% coupon but was issued at a price below par (effectively giving a higher yield to compensate, somewhat, for the forced nature of the deal). Crucially, it was a perpetual bond, meaning it had no final maturity date.

The Italian government unilaterally changed the terms of its debt. Investors lent money for 30 days, expecting to be repaid in cash at the end of that term. The government broke that promise.

Investors had no choice. They could not get their cash back; their only option was to accept the new long-term instrument. While they received a new security, it was illiquid (perpetual) and its value was uncertain. This action caused significant financial losses for many Italian banks and citizens who held the paper.

I would expect that Europe will pull this one off when it can no longer issue new debt to pay off its old debt. We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. There is ONLY one way this ends, and that is a default or a forced loan.

The Insurrection Act – Can the POTUS Deploy the National Guard to America’s Cities?


Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Violent Crime

The National Guard’s deployment to Washington, D.C., was a successful endeavor. For the first time, the city went twelve days without a homicide. Carjacking decreased by 83%, robberies fell 46%, and overall violent crime fell 22%. The same program may be implemented in Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York, but Democratic leaders insist it is unconstitutional.

“Chicago is a killing field,” the POTUS commented, calling Mayor Brandon Johnson “grossly incompetent.” Governor JB Pritzker is threatening to sue if Trump sends troops to his state. “First thing we’re gonna do is take him to court because it’s illegal. It’s unconstitutional,” Pritzker said. “Frankly, it’s un-American to send troops into an American city the way that he wants to to fight crime. There is literally a law on the books that says he’s not allowed to do that.”

Robber

Insurrection Act, codified at 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–254 does permit the president to deploy federal troops or the National Guard to states. Now, D.C. is not a state and the National Guard answers to the president directly. Trump was easily able to mobilize troops into D.C. after declaring a “crime emergency.” Deploying troops to other states may prove difficult without a specific request from the governor or evidence of a rebellion or denial of civil rights beyond the scope of local authorities.

  • 252. Use of militia and armed forces to enforce Federal authority

Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion.

10 U.S.C. § 251:

Allows the President to deploy troops if requested by a state’s legislature or governor to suppress an insurrection within that state. This clause requires state consent and applies to insurrections against state governments.

10 U.S.C. § 252:

Permits the President to deploy troops unilaterally to any state to suppress insurrections, domestic violence, unlawful combinations, or conspiracies that make it impracticable to enforce federal laws. This clause does not require state consent.

10 U.S.C. § 253:

Authorizes deployment to any state where insurrection, domestic violence, or conspiracies result in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect those rights. This also does not require state consent.

Chicago Riots

Could the president declare a “crime emergency” in other American cities to bypass Democratic governors? It remains to be seen. However, one must question whether these governors are protecting their political party or their constituents.

Pritzker and Johnson insist Chicago is safe, but residents have taken to social media to prove otherwise. Pritzker posted a video of himself walking through one of the nicer areas of Chicago to claim the city was safe. Residents took to social media immediately to challenge him to come to their side of town without armed security. “Tell Brandon Johnson and Pritzker, if Chicago is so safe, with Brandon Johnson especially, let’s leave his 150 police detail. Fire them and walk around with no police detail. And Pritzker, no security,” one resident told reporters. “Come in my community, the South Side of Chicago. Come over there, and let’s see you say how safe it is. You can’t even sit in your car alone. If you sit in your car, you know there is a chance you’re going to get carjacked, robbed or shot. So tell him to come around in my neck of the woods and talk that.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1960097356097130777&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Finternational-news%2Fnorth_america%2Famericas-current-economy%2Fthe-insurrection-act-can-the-potus-deploy-the-national-guard-to-americas-cities%2F&sessionId=d4cf02ea7d8ca83ec03270837391c06d603d92b2&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=500px

“We just had four mass shootings in a span of one month. Fourteen people got shot and four dead. We just had senior citizens laying shot, bleeding in the streets. And let’s not forget the gentleman who we saw, who was on Facebook Live, get robbed and shot while he was sitting in his car. So we don’t care about anything these people are saying,” one resident told Fox News.

The same situation unfolds every single time that a blue candidate is put into office. The Democrats are so desperate for voters that they are hoping pro-crime policies will convince the people that they are for less government intervention. The truth of the matter is that America’s cities are not safe and local law enforcement does not have the manpower or legal tools to quell the problem.

70,000 Monks Nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize


MonksforTrump

A group of 70,000 Cambodian Buddhist monks conducted a peaceful march to nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Some of the monks broke their vows of silence to discuss the reason for their nomination.

On July 28, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia ended their five-day war over territorial disputes. Although neither country officially declared war, the conflict displaced over 131,000 people in Thailand and 4,000 in Cambodia. At least 32 people had lost their lives as of July 26, according to the Associated Press. Critics claim Trump does not deserve the nomination, as there was no official war to end.

Trump’s full post to Truth Social:

"Just spoke to the Prime Minister of Cambodia relative to stopping the War with Thailand. I am calling the Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, right now, to likewise request a Ceasefire, and END to the War, which is currently raging. We happen to be, by coincidence, currently dealing on Trade with both Countries, but do not want to make any Deal, with either Country, if they are fighting — And I have told them so! The call with Thailand is being made momentarily. The call with Cambodia has ended, but expect to call back regarding War stoppage and Ceasefire based on what Thailand has to say. I am trying to simplify a complex situation! Many people are being killed in this War, but it very much reminds me of the Conflict between Pakistan and India, which was brought to a successful halt."

On July 26, 2025, Donald Trump publicly posted on social media that he was speaking with leaders from both nations to “request a Ceasefire, and END to the War, which is currently raging.” Trump immediately halted trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand at a time when both nations were looking at a possibly 36% tariff hike.

Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Manet, and Thailand’s acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, both thanked Donald Trump after announcing the ceasefire. Hun Manet posted a letter to Facebook, in which he took the time to thank the US president for restoring peace in the region. The prime minister also declared that Trump should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for ending what could have been an extremely deadly conflict.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee would likely not select Donald Trump for the award, but there are tens of thousands of people in Asia who adamantly believe he deserves recognition.

Merkel Shows NO Remorse for Refugee Crisis


Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Merkel Welcome

Ten years ago, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel began the migrant crisis after uttering, “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do this”) and declaring that Germany was a safe haven for all refugees. In a recent interview with ARD, Merkel was asked to reflect on her 2015 decision that permanently altered the European landscape. To the surprise of no one, she feels no remorse.

“It was clear to me that this would be something truly challenging,” Merkel said. She congratulated herself for not using force to prevent refugees from entering. Over 800,000 Syrian refugees entered Germany in 2015 alone. The cultural landscape of Europe is unrecognizable today and budgets have imploded in an effort to maintain the migrant population.

Merkel does have one regret—strengthening the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party. The AfD campaigns on the promise of securing domestic interests first and foremost, which no other political party is willing to do. The people of Germany have turned to the AfD Party at a record pace because they have witnessed the failed policies of recent history, with the migrant crisis being only one of countless variables ailing Deutschland.

Mother Merkel

Merkel only received 16,233,642 votes during the 2013 election, which was 37.2% of the popular vote of Germany. So the majority of Germans never wanted these policies to start. She assumed she could revitalize the German economy to shift from export-dominated to domestic consumption. That was another failed fantasy, similar to the EU’s attempt to end wars by creating a single unified government. The immigrants, whom she thought would boost the German economy, added to the deficit. She declared that there would be no limit to the number of Syrian refugees accepted, and expected to be honored like a pious deity for her actions. She had no plan or budget for how to accommodate such a large influx of newcomers.

People, mostly unaccompanied males, from throughout the undeveloped world flocked to Germany and spread out around Europe. The majority have never left. Brussels, at the guidance of globalist entities, later forced all of Europe to open their borders. This is a crisis that the continent will be grappling with for years to come, but make no mistake about it—Angela Merkel alone is directly responsible for starting the migrant crisis and permanently altering European civilization.

Merkel Shows NO Remorse for Refugee Crisis


Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Merkel Welcome

Ten years ago, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel began the migrant crisis after uttering, “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do this”) and declaring that Germany was a safe haven for all refugees. In a recent interview with ARD, Merkel was asked to reflect on her 2015 decision that permanently altered the European landscape. To the surprise of no one, she feels no remorse.

“It was clear to me that this would be something truly challenging,” Merkel said. She congratulated herself for not using force to prevent refugees from entering. Over 800,000 Syrian refugees entered Germany in 2015 alone. The cultural landscape of Europe is unrecognizable today and budgets have imploded in an effort to maintain the migrant population.

Merkel does have one regret—strengthening the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party. The AfD campaigns on the promise of securing domestic interests first and foremost, which no other political party is willing to do. The people of Germany have turned to the AfD Party at a record pace because they have witnessed the failed policies of recent history, with the migrant crisis being only one of countless variables ailing Deutschland.

Mother Merkel

Merkel only received 16,233,642 votes during the 2013 election, which was 37.2% of the popular vote of Germany. So the majority of Germans never wanted these policies to start. She assumed she could revitalize the German economy to shift from export-dominated to domestic consumption. That was another failed fantasy, similar to the EU’s attempt to end wars by creating a single unified government. The immigrants, whom she thought would boost the German economy, added to the deficit. She declared that there would be no limit to the number of Syrian refugees accepted, and expected to be honored like a pious deity for her actions. She had no plan or budget for how to accommodate such a large influx of newcomers.

People, mostly unaccompanied males, from throughout the undeveloped world flocked to Germany and spread out around Europe. The majority have never left. Brussels, at the guidance of globalist entities, later forced all of Europe to open their borders. This is a crisis that the continent will be grappling with for years to come, but make no mistake about it—Angela Merkel alone is directly responsible for starting the migrant crisis and permanently altering European civilization.

Polish President Vetoes Extended Ukrainian Refugee Aid Package


Posted originally on Aug 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Nawrocki.Poland

Poland’s president has vetoed a bill that would extend aid to Ukrainian refugees. Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist conservative, commented that Ukrainians “make the effort to work in Poland” and pay taxes in the country in order to be eligible for support. Nawrocki, whose own party approved of the initial aid to Ukrainians, stated that the current financial package “places us in a situation where citizens of Poland are treated worse in their own country than our guests.”

Over 1.5 million Ukrainians have fled to Poland since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. Poland has offered every single refugee a taxpayer-subsidized life. Ukrainians living in Poland are eligible for free housing, food benefits, health care, education, child allowances, and more.  Ukrainian refugees were often favored for subsidized housing over nationals who may have been waiting years for council housing. Nawrocki stated he was concerned with the 800+ program that provided families with children an 800 zloty monthly payment per child, regardless of income. The president felt that only those working should receive this benefit, but why should the public be paying out this fund at all?

The head of the president’s chancellery, Zbigniew Bogucki, commented that “for Ukrainians who legally work in Poland, reside, run their own business, and pay taxes, there is nothing to worry about.” Despite the similarities in culture, there is a growing discontent for Ukrainian refugees in Poland due to the government prioritizing newcomers. That is how xenophobia traditionally comes about—the last one “off the boat” is seen as the outsider.

Poland created an Aid Fund operated by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) funded partially by the European Investment Bank and the EU, which finances local governments and organizations to support Ukrainian refugees. A  €2 billion loan was approved for 2025 through the Aid Fund, including €600 million disbursed by the European Investment Bank (EIB). Assistance for Ukrainian refugees in Poland is estimated to have reached around 15.9 billion zlotys (roughly €3.5 billion) this year.

Perhaps Polish leaders underestimated the duration of the war. The Polish government spent 1% of GDP on Ukraine during the first three months of the war in 2022. Poland has continued to raise military spending and direct aid for Ukraine year after year. Yet, the president has been condemned for taking a “Poles first” stance and tightening its social program. The true nationalists do not believe he is doing enough for his nation, while the others see him as cruel. In the EU, anything aside from unconditional blind support from Ukraine is seen as a selfish act. There is no room for nationalism in Brussels.

Germany Reconsiders Welfare State to Fund Ukraine


Posted originally on Aug 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Germany_to_fund_long_range_weapons_in_Ukraine_says_Merz 5 31 25

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz does not have the ability to manage Europe’s top economy. “The welfare state that we have today can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy,” Merz said in a recent meeting. At the same time, Merz agreed to begin sending Ukraine 9 billion euros annually in addition to all other aid.

Merz tried to claim there would “not be any increase in income tax on medium-sized companies in Germany with this federal government under my leadership.” SPD Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil disagrees, and said that middle and high-income citizens could race an increased tax burden. “I’m not satisfied with what we have achieved thus far,” the chancellor said. “It has to be more.”

Merz campaigned on a platform of fiscal responsibility. Then he left Germany’s borders open and worked to find a loophole in the Constitution to fund Ukraine endlessly without any caps. The German welfare state cost taxpayers €20.2 billion ($23.6 billion) in 2024. Public spending accounted for 49.5% of all economic output in 2024.

Lars Klingbeil stated that Germany’s federal budget will face a €30 billion shortfall by 2027. His solution is clearly to increase taxes. “Especially people with high income and high net worth have to ask themselves: What am I contributing to make this country fairer?” He added: “Most of the time, I see people with very high incomes and very large fortunes making a strong appeal to the whole country that everyone should work harder and longer. But I don’t think that does justice to the pension debate that we really need to be having in Germany.”

Diplomacy Merz_on_Ukraine_No_hope_left_for_a_diplomatic_solution_t

Germans have one of the highest tax burdens in Europe. Yet, by 2029, Germany is expecting to take on €851 billion worth of new debt. The war on the energy sector, perpetual spending on Ukraine, and open borders are crippling the German economy. German lawmakers would like to cut back on payments for citizens who spend a lifetime paying into the system. Germany spent 14.8% more in 2024 on an annualized basis on basic income support and nursing health care to the tune of €20.2 billion. Around €11.4 billion of those funds were spent on pensioners and those unwilling to work. In 2025, the nation will spend €43 billion on the citizens’ stipend or Bürgergeld scheme that provides basic income for the unemployed (not including pensioners or those with disabilities).

Merz plans to cut spending for the Bürgergeld scheme. He plans to increase taxation on pensions, although over half of German pensioners currently receive payouts below the poverty line. Merz will place a cap on the amount welfare recipients can use toward housing. While some of these cuts are necessary, Merz fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room—YOU’RE SENDING BILLIONS PER YEAR TO A FOREIGN GOVERNMENT!

Why should the German people be forced to send 9 billion euros to a foreign government annually? The people have been forced to send public funds and soon the people will be forced to send their sons and daughters to fight a unwinnable war. Germany’s leaders have put domestic policies last in favor of globalist neocon ambitions. The nation is already in a recession and the government continues to implement policies that are pushing the nation further into ruin.

Can We Alter the Cycles?


Posted originally on Aug 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Checkmate 2

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have come to understand that your cross in life is that you created a computer that always beats you. That must be a strange feeling to play chess, and it always puts you in checkmate. You are correct. The EU will never allow Zelensky to agree to peace. His purpose is to create World War III, and Socrates is always correct.

WS

Reduce Amplitude

REPLY: Yes, I have come to accept that I cannot defeat my own computer. My only remaining hope is that if I scream loud enough, perhaps, just maybe, I can reduce the amplitude which was the excuse of locking us all down during COVID (Except Florida) to “flatten the curve.” I cannot do this alone. We need to get as many people screaming, let NATO self-destruct, and stay the hell out of this European War.

EU Trying for Regime Change in Hungary Using Zelensky


Posted originally on Aug 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Zelensky vs Orban

Viktor Orbán has been a thorn in the paw of the European dictatorship masquerading as a democracy when the people have no right to vote for any leader, and the Parliament, which they do vote for, has no complete democratic control over other EU institutions, especially the European Commission. It can hold hearings, ask questions, and set up committees of inquiry. Most dramatically, it has the power to pass a motion of censure and force the entire European Commission to resign.  It cannot pass laws alone. It can reject proposed legislation entirely, killing the bill. It has done this on numerous occasions, forcing the Commission to go back to the drawing board. However, it has the power to reject the entire annual EU budget. It has no power to alter laws or the budget. It is always an all-or-nothing role.

The European Union has not stripped Hungary of its voting rights over issues related to migrants or Ukraine, but is dying to do so and is now behind closed doors telling Zelensky to create a confrontation with Orban to force Hungary to exit the EU and enter war with Ukraine. On Ukraine’s Independence Day, Zelensky gave Hungary an ultimatum: “You must make a choice.” 
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó fired back with sharp words:

“We firmly reject the Ukrainian President’s intimidation. In recent days Ukraine has carried out serious attacks against our energy supply. An attack on energy security is an attack on sovereignty.”

Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha then mocked Hungary, stating:

“Hungary’s energy security is in your own hands. Diversify and become independent from Russia, like the rest of Europe.”

Zelensky is deliberately attacking the national security of Hungary, I believe, at orders from London, the EU, and NATO, who want Hungary out of the EU. The EU has debated stripping Hungary’s voting rights, but no such action has been finalized due to the complex and politically sensitive nature of the Article 7 process. Hungary’s positions on migration and Ukraine remain significant points of tension. For now, Hungary retains its full voting rights. The EU is desperate to get it to leave to the point of instructing Zelensky to cut off Hungary’s energy supply from Russia to cripple the economy, and they hope that will overthrow Orbán.

This dangerous new phase of the war, targeting highly sensitive infrastructure, comes amid defiant speeches in Kiev. There will NEVER be any peace until Zelensky is dragged out of Ukraine in chains. He takes his order against his own people, who want peace.

There have been ongoing discussions and proposals to deal with Hungary under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which allows for the suspension of a member state’s voting rights in cases of severe and persistent breaches of EU values, such as the rule of law, democracy, and human rights. These discussions have been fueled by Hungary’s actions under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, particularly its vetoes or obstructions of EU decisions on Ukraine aid, sanctions against Russia, and migration policies.

Hungary has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU funding for Ukraine, such as the €50 billion Ukraine Facility package, and opposed Ukraine’s EU accession talks, often citing issues like minority rights or corruption in Ukraine. For instance, Orbán left the room during a key vote in December 2023 to allow EU leaders to reach a consensus on starting accession talks with Ukraine, avoiding a direct veto but still signaling resistance.

Hungary’s vetoes on Ukraine aid and its perceived alignment with Moscow have led to growing frustration. The EU has considered workarounds, like alternative plans to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine’s accession, and some MEPs have pushed for legal action against the European Commission for unfreezing €10 billion in funds for Hungary, seen by critics as a concession to Orbán’s tactics. This is why, covertly, Ukraine has been given the green light to undermine Hungary in hopes of forcing regime change.

2024 EU Sanctions on _The_Hungarian_government

Article 7 Proceedings:

The European Parliament triggered Article 7 procedures against Hungary in 2018 due to hyped-up allegations of judicial independence, media freedom, and civil society restrictions. Multiple hearings have been held to discuss potential sanctions, including suspending Hungary’s voting rights. However, no final decision has been made, as Article 7 requires unanimous consent from all other member states, which has been challenging to achieve.

Hungary’s strict anti-migration stance, including the “Stop Soros” law criminalizing assistance to illegal migrants and its 2016 referendum rejecting EU migration quotas, has been a point of contention. Some EU members see these policies as violating EU principles on human rights and solidarity.

The EU has instructed Romania to take in 100,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East. They really do believe that they can draft all of these migrants to wage war against Russia. That is the backdrop to this crisis, they will NEVER tell the media about because it makes them the aggressor for war.

ECM Euro Waves 1 2

Our model on the EU, taken from the 1957 Treay of Rome, shows a major crash by 2030. This is where we should expect that the odds of the EU remaining intact post-2030 come into serious question. The EU has been drunk with power and has done precisely the opposite of its promises, from Climate Change to the migrant crisis, all culminating in war.

1999 ECM Euro Begins

The shift in trend that the computer was forecasting lined up with the ECM from the start of the Euro, which began on October 20th, 2024 (2024.802). Maia Sandu, the Prime Minister of Moldavia, had the first round of election on October 20th, 2024.

Kallas Zelensky

This is also when Kaja Kallas was selected to be the Vice-President of the European Commission as well as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. She is about as unbiased as Zelensky, and the two of them belong in the same cell. It was the first time I ever saw him put on a shirt and tie to impress her. I guess he didn’t need to wear his army getup to show he is at war while sending off $50 million per month to a secret account in the UAE.

Kallas No Land Concessions

As I have warned, even Washington, the EU has ZERO intention of allowing any peace deal whatsoever. There was war, and it is either war to destroy Russia and seize its $75 trillion of natural resources to keep the EU alive, or else, it is going to collapse by 2030, and they know that. They will NOT reform the EU even economically. They are married to the goals of Karl Marx – equality and suppressing individualism, just as the USSR did. The right to freedom of speech does not exist in Europe, unlike in the USSR. They are as paranoid as Stalin was who lived in fear of a revolution to overthrow him.

Hunary Joins the EU
Hungary_Forint M Array 8 25 25

We see October as a turning point for Hungary. Perhaps all the back-stabbing from the EU will come to a head. With Zelensky’s ultimatum, choose sides or else it will come from Kallas and the rest of the Neocons.

Ukrainian Man Arrested for Nord Stream Pipeline Attack


Posted originally on Aug 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Nordstream Pipeline Russia

A 49-year-old Ukrainian man was arrested in Italy after authorities linked him to the Nord Stream pipeline attack. Authorities believe the man and his accomplices rented a sailing yacht from a German company in September 2022 and managed to detonate a portion of the pipeline. No one has ever taken responsibility for the attack. Sweden closed its investigation in February 2024 after determining “insufficient grounds to pursue a criminal case,” and Danish prosecutors also ended their investigations that same month, although they acknowledged there was “deliberate sabotage of the gas pipelines.” Germany is the last remaining European nation continuing the investigation.

The world initially blamed Russia for the attack, believing Moscow would actively detonate its own pipeline to prevent its top buyer from accessing oil. The motive never added up.  Gerhard Schindler, former head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), suggested that Russia sabotaged the pipeline to halt gas exports. President Zelensky’s advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia wanted “to destabilize economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic.”

Russia Pipelines

Russia accused Western actors of destroying the pipeline. “It is evident that executing such a terrorist act required a directive from the highest levels…for the West, that highest level is undoubtedly Washington,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated. Russia’s defense ministry accused the British navy of orchestrating the attack with the support of its US ally.

Putin called the idea of a pro-Ukrainian group orchestrating the attach “nonsense.” “An explosion of this kind, with such power, at such depth, can only be carried out by specialists, and supported by the entire power of the state, which has certain technologies. … The fact that this is a terrorist attack is no longer a secret to anyone, I think everyone has already recognized it. Moreover, the terrorist attack, quite obviously, was committed at the state level, because no amateurs can commit such actions,” Putin stated.

Former President Biden plainly stated that the US “would bring an end” to the Nord Stream pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine.

The pipeline was Putin’s last and strongest bargaining chip with Europe. In fact, he agreed to lift sanctions ahead of the explosion. The sabotage of the Nord Stream Pipelines was most likely accomplished with US intelligence. There is no possibility that Russia would have destroyed its final lifeline to the European economy. There is a possibility, however, that Europe would have caved and continued purchasing Russian energy. Neocons like National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Victoria Nuland, the Undersecretary of State for Policy, and Secretary of State Tony Blinken openly stated that they did not approve of the pipelines and wanted them gone. The Biden Administration was also keen to carry out the net-zero program and eliminate the world’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Germany consumed just under 20% of all Russian gas exports in 2020. About 50% of all of its gas was coming from Russia. Germany was clearly Russia’s #1 customer. That was why the United States may have taken the initiative to simply blow up the Nord Stream Pipeline without consulting Germany.

NordStreamExplosionSept2022

“If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be, there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden stated in February 2022 during a joint press conference with former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “I promise you, we will be able to do it.” Radek Sikorski, Poland’s former minister of national defense and EU Parliament member, posted an image on Twitter of the leak with the caption, “Thank you, USA.”

The destruction of Nord Stream came 51.6 years on target with the frequency of the Economic Confidence Model. Could a group of men create an explosion so powerful that it registered as a 2.3 magnitude earthquake? Evidently, this Ukrainian man was selected as the unfortunate scapegoat. It is overtly apparent who had the motive and incentive to eliminate Russia’s top export and bargaining chip.