QUESTION: I asked GOK who thinks the stock market will crash. It gave a list of people all expecting a crash. It also noted that Buffet was bearish and J.P. Morgan was calling for a 20% drop. The reasons were “High valuations, particularly in tech and AI, are compared to historical bubbles (e.g., dot-com, railroads). Recession fears, driven by tariffs, high interest rates, and consumer debt, are seen as potential catalysts. Ongoing conflicts (e.g., Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) and trade policy shifts add volatility.”
It even said:
“Samuel Benner’s Historical Chart (Referenced on Medium):
You seem to be standing alone. What do you think about the Benner chart?
SY
ANSWER: That’s good. The majority is always wrong. Just as Rogoff said, the forecasts at Davos are always wrong. Most of these people forecast markets based on personal opinion, and they tend to be very myopic. They do not look at the world because they believe they can forecast in isolation.
The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the WSJ in 1933.
Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.
The U.S. economy did post a headline-grabbing 3.3% gain in Q2, but that figure is misleading. It’s driven largely by the collapse in imports—not by true domestic growth. Remember the GDP formula: GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). A sharp drop in imports boosts that (X – M) term artificially, making GDP look better even while the underlying fundamentals stagnate.
Consumer spending rose only modestly at 1.6% and private domestic final sales rose 1.9%. They relay a lower estimate and then state the true figure, acting as if the figure should be celebrated. Meanwhile, business spending remained weak.
We’ve also noted that household debt surged by $185 billion in Q2, with rising mortgage, credit-card, auto-loan, and student-loan balances. Delinquency rates are up, and real incomes are under pressure. Consumers are treading in deep waters.
Imports tanked by 29.8% after nations began to panic buy last quarter ahead of tariffs. Exports declined 1.3%. The import volatility has inflated figures and does not mark sustainable economic growth. Investment into the US has also improved as capital has nowhere else to go, but again, the expansion is not enough for the long-term.
The economy contracted 0.5% in Q1, and the Commerce Department is reporting that the economy rose 3.3% in Q2, with growth averaging 2.1% or a bit above 1% per quarter. Stagflation is not simply high inflation with low growth. It is the direct result of government mismanagement. When politicians and central banks try to manipulate the economy, they destroy confidence. That is the fuel behind stagflation.
Peace talks are a moot point between Russia and Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine have been at the forefront of Ukraine’s discussions but they are actually a premise to determine how other nations will officially enter the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed an ambitious security guarantee that would require allies to decide within 24 hours whether to deploy troops to Ukraine if Russia attacks.
“Allies” could use any excuse to send their men and women to the battlefield under this premise. Zelensky has been urging for Article 5 protection—an attack on one is an attack on all—despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO. Entering the conflict under Article 5 is voluntary, but the situation can only remain voluntary for so long when other members become further embedded in the conflict. Ten European nations have already offered to send troops to Ukraine. Zelensky insists that long-term restrictions on its military should be eliminated.
Ukraine would ideally like to join NATO, but NATO has never been willing to accept Ukraine as a member of its alliance. Instead, paying NATO members will offer Ukraine the very same protections they enjoy as the globalist powers abandon domestic sovereignty for a needless war. Europe knows it is crumbling under its own foot due the surmounting sovereign debt crisis, and rather than accept fault, the plan is to conquer Russia to bypass defaults. The computer indicates that this plan will fail.
I am preparing a report on the sovereign debt crisis for the 2025 World Economic Conference that will discuss this plan in further depth.
The European Union cannot admit its socialist experiment has failed, so it needs a distraction. Historically, when governments are bankrupt, they turn to war, and this is not a new strategy but human nature coming into play. The neocons in Washington are eager to play along and drag the US into Europe’s proxy war. The cost of living is skyrocketing among all developed nations, and rather than acknowledging failed policies or changing course, the West has decided to create a common enemy–Russia. Russia is the reason that the people are voting against their failed policies, according to the West and mainstream media. Russia is the reason that energy prices are rising, as they certainly cannot blame climate policies that have murdered the energy sector. Taxes are rising because of Russia. The forces that be would like the people to redirect their anger to the common enemy rather than revolting as they see the rising civil unrest and growing private debt burden.
Meloni said “there are clearly no easy solutions when it comes to stopping a war and building peace,” but she now realizes that peace is not an option. She showed potential at the beginning of her term, but has fallen under the thumb of Brussels. All of Europe, aside from Hungary’s Orban, has bowed to Brussels. The war will not be enough for the continent to hold on to its decaying union.
The Sixteen Thirty Fund is a dark money nonprofit that funnels hundreds of millions of dollars to left-leaning political causes. The group spent over $410 million in 2020 alone on media campaigns in an attempt to persuade voters to support “progressive” causes such as migration, climate policies, and abortion. George Soros, Pierre Omidyar, and Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss are known donors to the fund, although the group is not required to disclose their donations publicly.
Not only is the group permitted to operate anonymously, but those paid to promote their messages also operate in secrecy. WIRED magazine recently announced that the Sixteen Thirty Fund has been paying over 90 online social media influencers up to $8,000 a month to support Democratic causes. These content creators operate under the “Chorus Creator Incubator Program,” and they are provided with specific propaganda tools such as “advocacy training,” message briefings, newsroom events, and are often asked to partner with politicians and other left-leaning organizations.
Both sides advertise and push subtle messaging in the media; however, the Sixteen Thirty Fund has prohibited those in the Chorus Creator Incubator Program from disclosing their involvement with the fund. The elites who are promoting causes that they themselves do not abide by insist on anonymity. The 40+ million followers of these influencers do not know that these videos and posts are paid and curated by the leftist billionaire elite.
As a stipulation for payment, the Sixteen Thirty Fund required their minions to route all interactions with lawmakers through their organization to control the narrative.
Traditional political advertisements are disclosed as advertisements. “Paid for by…” However, the new form of media control is through “unique” social media messaging. Moreover, the majority of these social media platforms are already controlled by the leftist billionaire elite. Aside from Elon Musk’s X, all major channels can remove content at whim, and we saw their broad reach during the COVID-19 pandemic when every platform was scrubbing the internet of content that went against the left mainstream media narrative.
Propaganda is far more subtle in today’s day and age. The people controlling the narrative do not care about these causes. The people paid to push these messages do not understand that they are working for the very people they claim to detest.
COMMENT: Thank you for the private blog on the sovereign debt crisis. With both the UK and France in trouble and the possibility of the IMF bailing out these two major countries, everything you have been warning about is coming to a head. I was impressed. There was over $20 trillion in the room at the last WEC. This year’s WEC will be more than just an ‘I told you so’ event. Can’t wait. You certainly have a lot to cover.
WL
REPLY: Well, between War, Sovereign Debt Crisis, shift in capital flows, risk of cancelling paper currencies, and even the rise in volcanic activity on target with Socrates’ forecast, we are looking at a profound shift with wildcards coming in from many directions. This year is our 40th anniversary since the first World Economic Conference was held in Princeton in 1985. Thank God for Socrates. It monitors everything and performs the work of over 1,000 analysts to provide us with a clear picture of what lies ahead.
I still had some hair back then and was probably 20 pounds lighter. We have the videos of that one, and there I was forecasting, look at the volatility we will experience in the decades ahead. That was undoubtedly an eye-opener at the time.
Twenty-five nations have declared a temporary suspension on all postal shipments to the United States amid tariff uncertainty. As of August 29, 2025, the United Stated will remove the de minimis exemption from law that allowed goods under $800 to enter tax-free. Tariffs range between 10% to 50% on the declared value, or $80 to $200 per parcel. Goods above $2,500 are subject to a Merchandise Processing Fee and additional formal customs checks. Processing delays and increased costs were incurred immediately, but now, a growing number of nations have decided to simply discontinue parcel service.
In Europe, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Czechia, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Portugal, and Ireland suspended services. In the Asia-Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand have halted services as well. Canada has also curbed its mail exports. All of this has been implemented at the federal level, whereas previously, individual postal carriers determined whether or not they would service the US.
“Despite discussions with U.S. customs services, no time was provided to postal operators to reorganize and assure the necessary computer updates to conform to the new rules,” France’s La Poste said in a statement. The Australia Post said the temporary partial suspension has been necessary to allow us to develop and implement a workable solution for our customers.” Italy’s Post Italiane noted that “the absence of different instructions from U.S. authorities,” forced the suspension of services. The United States did not consider the logistics of suddenly transforming import regulations.
American consumers are watching their orders decline in real-time. Items in transit are being returned of delayed, especially if they arrive after August 29. This is a fatal blow to small businesses that rely on international orders. American consumerism composes two-thirds of all GDP and other nations eagerly line up to sell their goods. Any downturn in trade is a negative for all parties involved.
The situation is still developing, but any suspension in parcel delivery will hurt the global economy. The United States did not give the world sufficient time to prepare for this new regulation. The EU, Japan, Canada, and others have the experience and infrastructure to integrate compliance changes and digital customs data, but other nations with less developed postal infrastructure are unlikely to quickly adapt their systems. These nations have been forced to halt services due to logistics rather than a punishment to the US as all parties involved will face consequences.
The United Kingdom’s Labour Party is experiencing the lowest approval rating since the last general election, with only 20% approving of Keir Starmer’s administration. What we are seeing in Britain is part of a broader global cycle of political discontent. Politicians are losing credibility because they are offering nothing but recycled policies that fail to address the economic storm at hand.
Starmer, like so many others in power today, has no real solutions. He inherited a fragile economy already crippled by decades of mismanagement, and instead of reversing course, he doubled down on the very same failed ideas. The endless promises of “green jobs” and “renewable energy revolutions” have failed. Energy costs remain high, industry continues to flee, and average households are struggling with the global cost of living crisis. The public feels betrayed because they were sold the illusion of prosperity under the Labour Party.
A Reform UK spokesperson accused Starmer of “cosying up to the EU and leaving [Britain] entangled in reams of retained EU law which Kemi Badenoch failed to scrap will not resuscitate Britain’s struggling economy.” Brexit may have occurred but the current administration has not broken ranks with Brussels. Starmer is forcibly pushing the UK into a war and compromising domestic policies for globalist ambitions.
The Reform UK Party is now leading the polls with 28% of the vote. Nigel Farage is offering the people a new opportunity under an administration that would prioritize domestic issues. Farage has called Starmer’s economic approach a “mad experiment” and has criticized government spending and excessive taxation. He has promised to save Britain’s energy sector and repeal all net-zero policies that cost over £40 billion annually. Farage published a piece on The Telegraph explaining the severity of the nation’s migrant crisis. He believes that the UK has spent £10 billion over five years on the migrant crisis and described the rise in crime and expenses as a “national emergency.” Farage has also expressed caution regarding sending UK troops to Ukraine.
The model suggests that as we approach the next critical political/economic wave, confidence in political leaders worldwide will erode. The people are turning to candidates whom the mainstream media paints as extreme because the world has awakened to the failed globalist policies that are destroying their nations. The people want national sovereignty that cannot be achieved through the establishment.
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