Apr 11 2025

It’s Just Time – the Last Frontier


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

student_answer_300_clr_705

COMMENT #1: Thank you for your private blog. I can see that the turning points laid out in Socrates are indeed pressure points that then cause people to react as Trump just did. You were right. The 7th held. These people get hysterical and blab out forecasts on emotions, as you said.

Thank you for the training.

WY

COMMENT #2: My Dear Mr. Armstrong much can be said and argue about these Tariffs you can write endless post about it but the bottom line is Trump and his advisors choose the WORST time in history ?to implement them -is like all hell broke loose !

Regular working class will pay the price already here in Ontario company are starting to fired people blaming guess who ? Unfortunately that how the game is play somebody has to be blame

You must be very busy ,but don’t neglect your well being please !

GR

ECM 2020 2028 R

REPLY: You are correct. We are all human and will respond to similar events in the same way and in the same amount of time, regardless of the country. The computer gave us the timing months in advance. The “fundamental” does not matter. My concern is that we are heading into a recession that started May 7th, 2024. I agree that the Democrats and media will blame Trump and his tariffs when this is part of the business cycle that will move into 2028. We are facing a sovereign debt crisis that will wipe out all debt by 2034.

Centralized Government

However, we are facing significant economic stress that pushes the Europeans to seek an external distraction, and that is Russia, to avoid dealing with the crumbling EU structure. They stripped Hungary of a right to vote and changed the rules that unanimous votes were necessary. Once you establish a centralized government,  they will always see more and more power. This is also why no government has ever survived long-term.

Thrasymachus Quote

Thrasymachus warned that JUSTICE is the same in every form of government – it is only the will of those in power. He said that more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has changed ever since. It is never a question of IF something will occur; it is merely a question of TIME – WHEN it will unfold. It is not a question of whether a society will rise against its oppressor; it is only a question of how much time it will require to move the majority of people to action. This is the same formula that governs when a market will crash. You may be able to raise your arm, but you cannot keep it up. You will run out of energy. So will markets or politics.

Rabbit Its Just Time

As I explained on the private blog, you can raise your arm but not keep it there. You will run out of energy, and it will become so heavy that you have to let it down. Markets are no different. As the white rabbit in Alice in Wonderland kept saying, “I’m late. I’m late.”

TIME last Frontier

It is the last frontier – It’s Just Time.

As Margaret Thatcher said at our World Economic Conference

Martin Armstrong Margaret Thatcher

Apr 11 2025

Bloomberg Joins CNN, MSNBC & the Rest Fake News


Posted originally on Apr 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Supreme Court Contempt

COMMENT: I wanted to throw my two cents into this tariff mess. I have lost all respect for Bloomberg. They are the fake news. The political bias dominates all of their articles. I saw what they did to you and refused to ever publish the truth. They kept telling the world you were in contempt for $1 billion that was missing when it was $1.3 million, and never fessed up that the bank stole the money and had to plead guilty and repay your clients. The mere fact that you had no restitution said it all, yet they kept you in prison on civil contempt to turn over assets for something you never owed. They have covered stories of Trump with the same dishonesty. Pronouncing the NASDAQ was in a bear market, with the S&P 500 soon to follow, was the final straw.

Yesterday, they wrote that Donald Trump appeared to blink in the face of global, domestic, and perhaps most importantly, Wall Street fury at his single-handed destabilization of stock markets, bonds, and even oil prices. It was the press that caused the crash, not Trump. Everyone knows that Trump plays the art of the deal. The whole tactic was to create free trade. I agree, if Kamala had won, they would be blaming evil capitalists and Republicans, trying to make her look bad.

They have joined the leftist agenda of fake news. I cancelled my subscription.

BQ

Pittman Letter

REPLY: It is worse than that. Our reports used to be on Bloomberg. They deleted all of our previous reports. Mark Pittman had even written an article on what we were doing in Japan, buying distressed portfolios, and each transaction was approved by the Japanese Minister of Finance (MOF). When the charges were filed, I met Mark at the Hyatt by Grand Central Station. He knew the charges were false and said to me, “We are not going to let them do this to you.” Bloomberg removed Mark from ever covering anything about my story and deleted all the evidence that showed the charges were false.

Bloomberg crossed to the Dark Side.

Then again, it’s Hard to find Any Mainstream News That is not Fake Today

Fake News Headline

The Real Question is WHY have they become Fake News?

Bloomberg 1

Because Michael Bloomberg is a Democrat?

Or was it because he just protected the Bankers?

Apr 11 2025

President Trump Invites Media to Cabinet Meeting – Holds Press Availability


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance 

President Trump holds a cabinet meeting and invites the press to attend and ask questions.

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Apr 11 2025

DNI Tulsi Gabbard Joins the Tick Tock Club – Repeating the “Just Wait, Trust Us” Nonsense


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

The absolute #1 tell highlighting this as a nonsense exercise, a delay tactic on behalf of the swamp, is the venue for Tulsi Gabbard’s “new task force” announcement, Sean Hannity.

In order to pass DC approvals for confirmation, Gabbard had to join the ‘FISA is awesome’ club.  Now, she aligns her DNI silo with the foolishness of the Sean Hannity ‘tick-tock’ club.  Sorry, but we’ve seen this performance so many times it is now blood boiling to watch them try and repeat it.

DNI Gabbard claims she is creating a new “transparency task force” to analyze information for potential declassification and public release.  However, the task force will now have to “dig” until they have every document discovered, before they can release it, because releasing information as it is discovered is against the operational mission of the people who control the silo process.  But she swears, if you wait for it, it will come. “Trust the plan.”

Oh, it’s so complicated.

Oh, it’s so big and hard to do.

Oh, the evidence is so hard to find.

This is the same nonsense story from Bill Barr, John Durham, Michael Horowitz and the other previous members of the Sean Hannity ‘tick-tock club,’ including John Solomon (controlled releases) and other “conservatively aligned” tradecraft media.  Barr is now Bondi, Wray is now Kash, Durham is now Bongino, the audience is the same.  It’s nonsense.

I’ve been on this trail for too long to keep buying this bullshit answer. It’s the same nonsense from Barr, Durham, Horowitz, now Kash, Bongino and Gabbard.

If they find a document, declassify it and release it. If they find another, do it again.

If someone refuses, call them out, call their office out, publicly and loudly. Shame them by name, title and position. It’s OUR STUFF.

They don’t have to wait until the people who run the silo machines have convinced them they have it all. Release it as it is revealed.

Sorry, I truly wanted to hold out hope in Gabbard Inc., but my trust account is empty. Release what you discover, as you discover it.

They won’t. They just won’t.  We will be sitting here in the lead up to the 2026 midterms, hoping… Yet again.

Apr 11 2025

Europe’s Big Pharma Companies Threaten Commission President von der Leyen, Change Trade Situation Quickly or We Go To America


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

The rapid change in Ursula von der Leyen now starts to make sense.  According to a press release [SEE HERE] from European Big Pharma, they recently had a meeting with the EU Komisar and threatened to leave Europe if the trade system is not renegotiated quickly.

President Trump is on the cusp of announcing a big change in tariffs against foreign pharmaceutical companies in an effort to get the manufacturing of medicines brought back to the USA.  Details are soon to surface.

In a proactive move, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), went to the European Commission (EC) yesterday to hold talks with von der Leyen, calling for radical change and holding the threat of an exodus to the U.S. over the EC president’s head.

PRESS RELEASE – Today, CEOs of the research-based pharmaceutical industry issued a stark warning to President von der Leyen that unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.

A survey of EFPIA member companies conducted last week – to which 18 international large and medium-sized innovative companies responded – identified as much as 85% of capital expenditure investments (approximately €50.6 billion) and as much as 50% of R&D expenditure (approximately €52.6 billion) potentially at risk. This is out of a current combined total of €164.8 billion in investments planned for the period 2025-2029 in the EU-27 territory. Over the next three months, companies that responded estimate that a total of €16.5 billion i.e. 10% of the total investment plans is at risk.

The US now leads Europe on every investor metric from availability of capital, intellectual property, speed of approval to rewards for innovation. In addition to the uncertainty created by the threat of tariffs, there is little incentive to invest in the EU and significant drivers to relocate to the US. (read more)

Apr 11 2025

President Trump Wallops China with Massive de minimis Tariff Increases – Mail Order Product Costs from China Will Skyrocket


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

Within the Executive Order modifying the April 2nd global reciprocal tariffs [SEE HERE] section #4, we note a massive increase in the duty fees for mailed products from China formerly shipped under ‘de minimis’ rules.

REMINDER: The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

On April 2nd, as part of the global trade reset and tariff structure, President Trump revoked authorization for Chinese goods to transfer to the USA using the de minimis rule. The de minimis exemption was cancelled for all products coming out of China. The rule change only targeted China and Chinese shippers. No one else. [XO HERE]

Yesterday, as part of the modification to Executive Order #14257, President Trump has increased the baseline tariff for product mailed from China [de minimis tariff] from 30 90 percent to 120%.

Mailed products from China now face a 120% tariff.  Additionally, minimum tariff amounts increased from $75 to $100 effective May 1st, and from $150 to $2oo effective June 1st.  [See Section #4]

Example: If you order a $20 shirt from China effective June 1st, you will pay $220.  $20 for the shirt, and $200 minimum tariff.

There is no way Chinese E-Commerce can survive this level of tariff/duty fees.

♦ SUBVERSION – The only way for the Chinese e-commerce to maneuver this, would be to extend the delivery times and transship through alternate mail and distribution centers, in other countries.  Example, mail your $20 shirt to (Vietnam or Mexico or Canada) and have a distribution center then repackage and mail it to the USA.  Or, far less likely, the Chinese e-commerce company can set up manufacturing centers in the 3rd party country (Vietnam, or Mexico or Canada) and make it there, not in China (not very likely at all).

President Trump is setting up bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with each of the nations that China might attempt to use as a transshipping hub.  Within those pending FTAs, there will certainly be no transshipping allowed, and trade sanctions in the FTAs as punitive punishment if they did it.

Keep watching this mail-order pressure point, because it’s likely to be more substantive -albeit less visible- than the manufacturing tariffs applied toward China directly.

Apr 11 2025

Inflation Drops to Lowest Level in Four Years 2.4%


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance | 226 Comments

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for February [DATA HERE], reflecting a drop in the year-over-year inflation rate to the lowest level in four years.

The rate of inflation dropped significantly due to lower gasoline (-6.3%) and fuel prices, which directly impacts every middle-class worker.  The ripple effects (transportation, warehousing, etc.) from lowered gasoline prices is not yet embedded in the cost of goods, that should start to surface next month.

[BLS Table A]

[…] Consumer prices were up 2.4% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, cooler than February’s gain of 2.8% and well below the 2.6% rise that economists expected.  

Prices excluding food and energy categories—the so-called core measure economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend—rose 2.8%, below forecasts for a 3% increase. That was the smallest increase in the core measure since March 2021. (read more)

For those who have travelled the MAGAnomic weeds with us, you will note this is the way overall lower inflation starts to surface under Trump policy.  This is exactly what happened in 2017 and continued throughout late 2019 until COVID-19 hit.  President Trump’s economic policies drop the rate of inflation, and eventually lower prices.

The downward price pressure from lower energy costs will eventually surface in lower food costs.

The same media who said Joe Biden was not responsible for massive inflation, will also say President Trump is not responsible for dropping inflation.  However, the average American can see that under Joe Biden stuff cost more, and under Donald Trump stuff starts costing less.  Policy does change prices.

Wall Street will hate these results, Main Street will love them.

Apr 11 2025

Komrade von der Leyen Orders Pause on EU Retaliation Tariffs Pending Engagement with Trump Administration


Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

Komrade Ursula von der Leyen represents the European Commission command and control authority, regardless of whether the individual members within the containment zone agree with the HQ in Brussels.

Komisar von der Leyen informs the union members that she has decided to pause the retaliation tariffs against the USA, based on the 90-day pause announced by President Trump.  However, in actuality there’s not much difference even within the pause as the German/EU autos are still tariffed (25%) and the steel and Aluminum tariffs’ (25%) still apply.

The only gain from yesterday’s modification in the global tariff regime for the EU was a switch from 20% EU tariff to a baseline 10% tariff during the pause.

The total EU relief is 10% for 90-days; but that was enough for Komrade Ursula to mount her high-horse and claim magnanimity status.

According to von der Leyen, “if negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.”[SOURCE]

“I welcome President Trump’s announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs. It’s an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.

Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade and supply chains to function.

Tariffs are taxes that only hurt businesses and consumers. That’s why I’ve consistently advocated for a zero-for-zero tariff agreement between the European Union and the United States.

The European Union remains committed to constructive negotiations with the United States, with the goal of achieving frictionless and mutually beneficial trade.

At the same time, Europe continues to focus on diversifying its trade partnerships, engaging with countries that account for 87% of global trade and share our commitment to a free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.

Finally, we are stepping up our work to lift barriers in our own single market. This crisis has made one thing clear: in times of uncertainty, the single market is our anchor of stability and resilience.

My team and I will continue to work day and night to protect European consumers, workers and businesses. Together, Europeans will emerge stronger from this crisis.

We took note of the announcement by President Trump.

We want to give negotiations a chance.

While finalising the adoption of the EU countermeasures that saw strong support from our Member States, we will put them on hold for 90 days.

If negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.

Preparatory work on further countermeasures continues.

As I have said before, all options remain on the table.” (source)

Before President Trump’s announcement on Wednesday, EU member countries voted to approve retaliatory tariffs on $23 billion in goods in response to the 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  Those steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place, but the EU cancelled their retaliation.

Apr 10 2025

DAVE WALSH: “Coal Is Essential To National Security”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 9, 2025, at 3:00 pm EST

Apr 10 2025

Mark Mitchell On The Legacy Media’s Attempt To Crash Markets Over Trump Tariffs


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 9, 2025, at 3:00 pm EST