Posted originally on the CTH on August 24, 2023 | Sundance 

The original BRICS economic alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has expanded today.  During the summit held in South Africa, the group which is home to about 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of global gross domestic product, voted to accept the applications of Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia.

What we see forming now is further evidence of the great energy cleaving.  As most western nations chase the World Economic Forum’s priority around ‘climate change’, the BRICS alliance hedges for more traditional energy sources (oil, natural gas, coal).  China will benefit the most as the Western industrial economies will not be able to compete in a global market using windmills and solar panels.

The western alliance (yellow) will be chasing climate change energy policy to power their economies.  The rest of the world (grey) will be using traditional and more efficient energy development.  The global cleaving around energy use would be complete.

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

(New York Times) […] On Thursday, the bloc revealed its decision, adding six new countries, including the staunchly anti-Western Iran, in an apparent victory for Beijing.

The inclusion of Tehran tilts the bloc more in opposition to China’s chief rival, the United States, and signals that Chinese pressure largely outweighed the qualms of India and Brazil, which want to maintain friendly ties with the West.

“Iran, obviously, is a complicated choice,” said Cobus van Staden, a researcher with the China Global South Project. “I can imagine that some of the other members worry that it might increase geopolitical tensions with Western powers, which I think it kind of inevitably would.”

The addition of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia gives the group more financial heft. It also bolsters Beijing’s bid to demonstrate to the world that it has growing support for its agenda despite having alienated many countries in the developed world over its ties to Russia.

“This membership expansion is historic,” China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, said on Thursday at the end of the meeting. “It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and cooperation for the broader developing world.”

China did not get everything it wanted, however. It had pushed for Indonesia to be invited to the group. The reason for Indonesia’s omission was not immediately clear.

Still, the appearance of a success for China may turn out to be the most significant takeaway from the summit, which failed to deliver on the long-stated goal of establishing a BRICS currency to rival the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. The group instead encouraged members to use local currencies in trade. (read more)

The currency issue is likely to be a more complex undertaking as it does not make sense to establish trade in an alternative currency until the arrival of the Central Bank Digital Currencies.   The most likely path for global energy trade will be in the form of a digital currency exchange amid the BRICS+ group.

More than 40 additional countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, and 22 have formally asked to be admitted.

Everything inside this dynamic appears structurally centered on the full cleaving of the energy sector into two bipolar worlds. One economic system focused on green energy policy, the other economic system working via traditional energy development.