Bolsonaro Hands Over Power to Lula             


Armstrong Economics Blog/South America Re-Posted Nov 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jair Bolsonaro did not immediately concede to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after the close election of 49.1%-50.9%. This is the closest presidential race in Brazil since 1985 and marks Bolsonaro’s first defeat in his political career. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.”

As our computer warned, there would be intense politically motivated civil unrest worldwide this November.

The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he will hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. World leaders also affiliated with the “elite” group have congratulated him on his win. His policies will align with other WEF leaders and is a glimpse into what to expect from Brazil going forward. Bolsonaro’s words to the people will not eliminate the anger they feel nor will it prevent the people from continuing to protest.

Washington Downplays Poor Relations with Saudi Arabia


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Oct 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Davos in the Desert meeting has humiliated Washington. The president himself was unable to secure a deal with Saudi Arabia, and now America’s elite are congregating in Riyadh to discuss trade. The New York Times released an article claiming that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “duped” Joe Biden into thinking that he would increase oil production. Now, the White House is claiming that Joe’s failed visit to Saudi Arabia had nothing to do with oil.

Perhaps Uncle Joe was working on his tan? White House Press Secretary Jean-Pierre said that the situation has been “mischaracterized” and said the NYT article was fake news. “Look, we’ve also been clear that, our trip, that the President’s trip to the Middle East was not about oil,” she stated. “What the President is focused on currently and today and has been for the past several months since the war started — remember, because of Russia’s war, we have seen a spike in gas prices, so as you hear us say, Russia’s tax hike, and so, we have done everything that we can and continue to do the work — the President has — to lower the prices for the American people. That’s why you have seen gas prices go down.”

Blame is on “Russia’s tax hike” and not Washington’s inability to negotiate or maintain diplomatic relations with strategic trading partners. The NYT article claims that the kingdom promised it would “accelerate an OPEC Plus production increase of 400,000 barrels per day already planned for September” followed by an additional 200,000 bpd increase from September to December. OPEC+ decreased production by 2,000,000 bpd instead.

Due to this failed arrangement, oil prices rose right before the 2022 US midterm elections. Biden released Strategic Petroleum Reserves in response to temporarily bring prices down, as he does not want America to see the repercussions of this failed deal.

South Africa Confirms Likelihood of Saudi Arabia Joining BRICS Economic Alliance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 17, 2022 | Sundance

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa held a two-day summit with Saudi Arabia on mostly economic matters.

At the conclusion of the summit, he confirmed the intent of Saudi Arabia to join the BRICS economic coalition, which should not come as a surprise given the previous statements by Saudi leader and Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MbS).

(MSM) Ramaphosa confirms Saudi Arabia wants to join Brics family.  This was revealed by President Cyril Ramaphosa during his two-day state visit to the kingdom on Sunday.

“The Crown Prince (prime minister Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud) did express Saudi Arabia’s desire to be part of Brics and they are not the only country,” said Ramaphosa. He confirmed this on Sunday during an engagement with the media.

Brics held its first summit in 2009, with SA joining the following year. The bloc has generally been seen as an alternative to the dominance of the western economies.

“We did say that Brics having a summit next year under the chairship of South Africa in SA and the matter is going to be under consideration.

“A number of countries are making approaches to Brics members, and we have given them the same answer that it will be discussed by the Brics partners and thereafter a decision will be made.” (read more)

Since the outset of the Western Alliance sanctions against Russia, we have been predicting an increased geopolitical influence from the BRICS team.  A global financial and economic cleaving is underway created by the western nations chasing ideological climate change energy policy, while the rest of the world remains pragmatic toward oil, coal and natural gas as energy resources.

We have been closely monitoring the signs of a global cleaving around the energy sector taking place.  Essentially, western governments’ following the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda which stops using coal, oil and gas to power their economic engine, while the rest of the growing economic world continues using the more efficient and traditional forms of energy to power their economies.

(July 2022) […] “This accession, if Saudi joins it, will balance the world economic system, especially since the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of oil in the world, and it’s in the G20,” Hamed said. “If it happens, this will support any economic movement and development in the world trade and economy, and record remarkable progress in social and economic aspects as Saudi Arabia should have partnerships with every country in the world.” (read more)

That would essentially be the end of the petrodollar, and -in even more consequential terms- the end of the United States ability to use the weight of the international trade currency to manipulate foreign government.  The global economic system would have an alternative.  The fracturing of the world, created as an outcome of energy development, would be guaranteed.

Keep in mind, in early June Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar.”  {LINK}

The western alliance (yellow) would be chasing climate change energy policy to power their economies.  The rest of the world (grey) would be using traditional and more efficient energy development.  The global cleaving around energy use would be complete.

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this global cleaving would happen.

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

Multinational corporations in control of government are what the BRICS assembly foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The BRICS team intend to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.

The objective of the BRICS group is simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘western alliance.’

The BRICS team, especially if Saudi Arabia, Iran and Argentina are added creating BRICS+, would indeed be a counterbalance to the control of western trade and finance.  This global cleaving is moving from a possibility to a likelihood.  If Saudi Arabia joins BRICS the fracture becomes almost certain.

Global Energy Cleaving Continues, Iran and Argentina Apply to Join BRICS Economic Partnership


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

Marco Rubio Preparing to Join Biden in Destroying the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The world has gone completely nuts and now even Republican Marco Rubio is drafting legislation to sanction China. Biden’s sanctions have totally destroyed the world economy, bringing globalization and world peace to an abrupt end. I have written to Marco Rubio in response to his Tweet, but I seriously doubt he will ever respond.

“I realize that the chances of this ever being answered are minus zero. I will nonetheless publish this on ArmsatronEconomics.COM. I have advised nations and I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. These sanctions on Russia have already destroyed the world economy ending the integrity of the SWIFT system. Sanctions have NEVER worked even one time in history and every president before Biden sought world peace where now all we see is world war III. All of this nonsense has only ensured the end of the United States as the leader of the world economy. Even SWIFT told Obama no way in 2014 would they remove Russia from the system. Now SWIFT has committed suicide and Biden has divided the world economy. This will never return to normal and your proposal to sanction China is insane. In fact, the arrogance of the United States as the policeman of the world has only led to our inevitable demise. SWIFT is no longer the foundation of the world economy and this is ending the economic status of the dollar and the United States. No nation lasts forever and just as the arrogance of Athens led to the Peloponnesian War; we too have become far too arrogant sealing our own fate out of stupidity. Sanction China and you guarantee their alternative to SWIFT and once you terminate the goodwill, then without trade, they no longer have the incentive to participate in the world economy and thus it is no longer a threat to bit the hand that feeds you.”

The European Union’s relations with China have also plunged to unprecedented new lows. The US has also floated these theories with allies in Europe to sanction China, with absolutely ZERO understanding of how the world economy even functions. World peace is established not by threats and a show or nuclear weapons. It is free trade that bound the Roman Empire together where conquered lands found it beneficial economically to be part of the Empire than on the outside, chucking spears across the border. By removing Russia from SWIFT and now threatening China with sanctions, if they dare to allow Russia to use their alternative, all I can say is the United States is doomed. Biden called Putin a war criminal, yet under this theory, President Johnson was a war criminal for the abuse of soldiers in Vietnam. There are allegations of war crimes against Americans from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria for starters. So is Obama also a war criminal? These sorts of allegations GUARANTEE there will be no peace — EVER!

Marco Rubio mentioned that he is mulling legislation to sanction China if it helps Moscow circumvent SWIFT sanctions. Once the trade is severed, there is no incentive to work together. The only thing that then resolves such disputes is war. We are watching India among many nations viewing the arrogance of America as a deterrent and pushing them into the arms of the alternative economy that is forming.

The US has been funding the Ukrainian Civil War because the Neocon hates Russians. They are now poking China and have the audacity to think threatening China with the same sanctions will cause them to fall to their knees and beg for forgiveness. This thinking is absolute lunacy. The American people are TIRED of endless wars. The US has been sending National Guard troops overseas. Reservists and National Guards are being sent overseas because we do not have the troops necessary. These are people who have families — not 18 years boys sent to die. These are also National Guard troops, who are NOT defending the nation, but other people.

Looking closely at the National Guard’s website informs us that it has not one but two missions. The “state mission,” which you remember from your service, is to “provide trained and disciplined forces for domestic emergencies or as otherwise required by law.” There is also a “federal mission” to “maintain properly trained and equipped units available for prompt mobilization for war, national emergency, or as otherwise needed.” We have had National Guard troops overseas in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere being called in on the basis of this federal mission yet it is questionable if that is legal without a declaration of war.

We need to be mindful that our politicians are quick to send people to die with no regard for their families left behind. There seems to be no serious thought about what is taking place, and it is all playing to the sound-bites.

Biden Calls Russia Military Operation in Ukraine “Genocide”, Commits Additional $800 Million in Weapons Today


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance

Yesterday in Iowa, Joe Biden called the Russian military operation in Ukraine a “genocide,” which has a very specific set of legal definitions to it.

When asked if he had seen enough evidence to support that statement Biden responded:

“Yes, I called it genocide.  It has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being — being able to be Ukrainian.  And the amount — the evidence is mounting.  It’s different than it was last week.  The — more evidence is coming out of the — literally, the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine.  And we’re going to only learn more and more about the devastation. And we’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.”  (link)

Several ground reports from European journalists indicate the U.S. military is running all of the combat operations inside Ukraine. A French reporter said on Euro News, “I thought I was with the international brigades, and instead I was facing the Pentagon.”  Now today, Joe Biden announces he is arbitrarily sending U.S. combat helicopters into the conflict.

[Tweet Link]

(WHITE HOUSE) – I just spoke with President Zelenskyy and shared with him that my Administration is authorizing an additional $800 million in weapons, ammunition, and other security assistance to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has used the weapons we are providing to devastating effect. As Russia prepares to intensify its attack in the Donbas region, the United States will continue to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defend itself.

This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine. These new capabilities include artillery systems, artillery rounds, and armored personnel carriers. I have also approved the transfer of additional helicopters. In addition, we continue to facilitate the transfer of significant capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world. 
 
The steady supply of weapons the United States and its Allies and partners have provided to Ukraine has been critical in sustaining its fight against the Russian invasion. It has helped ensure that Putin failed in his initial war aims to conquer and control Ukraine. We cannot rest now. As I assured President Zelenskyy, the American people will continue to stand with the brave Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom. (link)

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki was asked about this escalation earlier today:

.

The Biden administration is all-in for this Ukraine proxy war, taking all actions to highlight a zero-sum position.

Biden Schedules Meeting With India Prime Minister to “Discuss” Russian Trade and Sanction Compliance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 10, 2022 | sundance 

Against the backdrop of increased Russia-India trade {link}, and the BRICS discussions about new trade payment mechanisms to avoid being shackled to the dollar {link}, it would appear the people behind the White House operation to create/maintain conflict with Russia are scheduling a stern conversation with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

WHITE HOUSE – ” President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. will meet virtually with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India on Monday, April 11 to further deepen ties between our governments, economies, and our people. President Biden and Prime Minister Modi will discuss cooperation on a range of issues.” …

“President Biden will continue our close consultations on the consequences of Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and mitigating its destabilizing impact on global food supply and commodity markets.” (read more)

The message from the White House will likely be akin to: ‘Nice country of 1.5 billion hungry people you got there Modi.  With all this talk of global famine going around, it’d be a shame if you couldn’t feed them.’ Oh, and by the way, did you happen to catch what just rolled out in Pakistan?  Imagine that – what with common borders and such… 

For those unfamiliar, it appears the DoS/CIA were up to their old tricks again, because Pakistan was favorable to the position of China and Russia in the Ukraine conflict and would not take sides with NATO and western allied leaders.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted through a majority parliamentary no-confidence vote early Sunday, that smells identical to the way Obama/Biden DoS/CIA ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

(VOA) – […] Khan is the first prime minister to be ousted by a no-confidence vote in Pakistan, but no democratically elected prime minister has served a full five-year term since the founding of the country in 1947.

The repeatedly delayed no-confidence vote against Khan was held after the country’s Supreme Court ruled last week he had acted unconstitutionally when he previously blocked the no-confidence vote, and subsequently dissolved parliament.

The embattled Pakistani leader had defended his blocking of the vote, alleging that the no-confidence motion was the result of the United States meddling in his country’s politics.

Washington rejected the charges, saying there was “no truth” to them. (read more)

Western media is full of (pro-western) spin on the background of the Pakistani issues, but regional media see exactly how the DoS/CIA operate with their lucrative intelligence bribes to ISI officials in Pakistan.   That’s the same m.o. the CIA used in Egypt – paying the Muslim Brotherhood and giving them resources to remove Mubarak.   The coincidences are too coincidental to be coincidental.

(VIA ABC) – […] Khan has claimed the U.S. worked behind the scenes to bring him down, purportedly because of Washington’s displeasure over his independent foreign policy choices, which often favor China and Russia. He has occasionally defied America and stridently criticized America’s post 9/11 war on terror. Khan said America was deeply disturbed by his visit to Russia and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 24, the start of the devastating war in Ukraine.  The U.S. State Department has denied his allegations. (more)

India and Pakistan have long been in conflict with each other.  The U.S. has always exploited this conflict as leverage in both countries, using intelligence and DoS operatives in Pakistan (major bribes), and using diplomatic/geopolitical and economic pressure in India.

That painful history of political extortion stopping is why India was so excited to have President Donald Trump in office.

President Trump spoke frankly to the Pakistani government about his expectations to stop supporting extremism (Taliban) in Afghanistan, and simultaneously Trump was honest and earnest with India using trade agreements that benefitted both the U.S. and India through his Indo-Pacific framework. {Go Deep – The Trump Doctrine}

Now, Biden turns back to leverage Modi by saying we’ve got the club back in charge and our tools ready in Pakistan.  If Modi keeps supporting Russia, suddenly the U.S. might provide discounted weapons and enhanced capabilities to Pakistan.  Nudge-Nudge, Wink-Wink….  Say no more.

I hate how the Fourth Branch of Government operates.

Americans in general are in an abusive and forced codependency relationship with our own government.  Unfortunately, most do not see it.

.

...”I’ve had a great relationship with the Indians. In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.” ~ Racist Joe

BRICS Ministers of Finance Hold a Meeting – It Is Time to Replace Western Financial Trade Mechanisms and Remove The Dollar


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 9, 2022 

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this would happen.

[Left to Right] Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

The finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition.  Once the internal issues inside the BRICS alliance are resolved, and once the mechanisms are created, then other nations will be able to decide to join or not.  The great global cleaving will commence.

(Reuters) – Russia, hit by Western sanctions, has called on the BRICS group of emerging economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate payment systems, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

[…] On Friday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told a ministerial meeting with BRICS, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, that the global economic situation had worsened substantially due to the sanctions, the ministry’s statement said.

The new sanctions also destroy the foundation of the existing international monetary and financial system based on the U.S. dollar, Siluanov said.

“This pushes us to the need to speed up work in the following areas: the use of national currencies for export-import operations, the integration of payment systems and cards, our own financial messaging system and the creation of an independent BRICS rating agency,” Siluanov said.

International payment cards Visa and MasterCard suspended operations in Russia in early March and Russia’s biggest banks have lost access to the SWIFT global banking messaging system.

Russia set up its own banking messaging system, known as SPFS, as an alternative to SWIFT. Its own card payment system MIR began operating in 2015.

[…] They were part of Moscow’s efforts to develop homegrown financial tools to mirror Western ones, to protect the country in case penalties against Moscow were broadened.

The finance ministry said BRICS ministers have confirmed the importance of cooperation in efforts to stabilise the current economic situation.

“The current crisis is man-made, and the BRICS countries have all necessary tools to mitigate its consequences for their economies and the global economy as a whole,” Siluanov said. (link)

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

The multinational corporate control of government is exactly what the BRICS assembly foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The countries run by multinational corporations are in Yellow, the countries who have not yet chosen a side are in GREY:

The BRICS team intend to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.

The objective of the BRICS group is simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘western alliance.’

China Backs Russia – they are All-In


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I remember when the Chinese central bank said they were using capital flow analysis which is your model. You said China should buy US debt directly from the Treasury and not the NY bankers. They did that in a matter of weeks. So when they say they are on the right side of history, are they talking about your model forecasting they will replace the US as the financial capital of the world?

NH

ANSWER: You have to understand that Asians believe in cycles. They are part of their religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote an interesting book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said, “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

In my 40 years of dealing with governments, I NEVER had to explain cyclical theory in Asia – only to American & European who do think always on a linear basis. They apply this to analysis like climate change. The temperature has risen say 5 degrees on years and they project that out and say we will all die in 7 years. NEVER does the West ever forecast cyclically – it is always linearly.

China understand cycles – we do not. They understand the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states. They understand that Communism failed for it tried to defeat human nature. They see the future cyclically and that is what they are saying that they will be on the right side of history. They know the West is crumbing from within. The time that the US hands that title to China is upon the doorstep. The West has done nothing but try to force their ideas upon everyone abandoning freedom and they have introduced the cancelation culture. We have lost all the values that made America great. It is time for Europe and American to die the same way all empires die, by their own hand of suicide.

China being on the “right side of history” means they know the United States is declining and they will step into the void. They can “feel” it with or without my models.