Are the Budget Forecasts Ever Valid?


Posted originally on Jun 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Debt Burden

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, this feud between Trump and Musk has caused me to wonder about Musk. Then, all of these forecasts are using tools you warned do not work because they rely solely on linear analysis. The Tax Foundation said Trump’s bill would result in a $2.6 trillion increase in the deficit. The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model claimed that the bill would raise deficits by $2.8 trillion. Then Yale’s Budget Lab claimed that over a 30-year window, the bill would add $10.8 trillion to the national debt. None of these organizations even understands that there is a business cycle. I find all of this chatter is no different from the climate change projects, as you said, one degree up this year means that will continue forever, and we will all die in 50 years.

Does Socrates have any view that is more reliable than these fake academic prognostications that are never right even once?

Rich

US Annual Budget 6 7 25
US Annual Budget Array 6 7 25

ANSWER: These forecasts are totally worthless. The CBO’s projections for the federal budget deficit were about $900 billion in 2019, and it was expected to exceed $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022.  The deficits for 2020, 2021, and 2022 were $3.1 trillion, $2.7 trillion, and $1.3 trillion, respectively. They are incapable of forecasting. How many millions do these fake forecasts cost? We will do it for 10% of their budget.  They are all based not just on linear analysis, but on the classic assumption that all things remain equal. They NEVER understand that there is a natural inherent business cycle.

Socrates examines everything, and nothing ever remains the same. We have a Directional Change in the annual budget in 2026, and then you see the big target is 2027. Just looking at the French government, which is in its 5th Republic. France changes government like the Biden Administration changed the definitions of a woman from women’s rights for abortion to his appointment of Jackson to the Supreme Court, who said she could not define what a woman is. The French government is expected to fall in 2027, potentially taking the EU with it.

maa wsj

When you look at the chart for the annual budget deficit, we peaked with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Look at the 1998-2002 period. We had a balanced budget. I was asked by the Wall Street Journal to write about how this was accomplished. In sum, the manner in which President Clinton (1993-2001) was able to balance the budge was (1) the economy recovered in 1994 with capital pouring into the United States as it fled South East Asia resulting in the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997, (2) US Interest rates rose sharply in 1994 attracting huge capital inflows including those from Japan, and (3) Clinton shortened the maturity of the debt funding it short-term to cut interest expenditure.

Clintons Balanced Budge 1998 2001

The National Debt rose from $4,064.6 billion in 1992 to $5,807.5 billion by 2001. The shift in funding slowed the rate of growth. Interest rates at the Fed dropped by 6.5% in 2000 to 1.75% in 2001. When Clinton took office, the Fed Discount Rate stood at 3.5%. The rise began in 1994, which helped to attract foreign capital, especially from Japan, and it peaked in 2000 with the Dot Com Bubble on the heels of the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle that followed the collapse of Russian debt.

However, because Clinton shifted from long-term to short-term, which reduced the interest expenditures, now look at how the debt exploded when the rates went back up to 6.5%. This is what I mean by the Fed can no longer control inflation, for the biggest borrower is the government.

Interview: Shocking Truth About Geopolitics, Economy, and the Future


Posted originally on Jun 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

“More Dangerous Than The Summer Of 1939” Steve Bannon Reacts To The Brink Of WWIII As Russia’s Tensions Grow


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 4, 2025, at 7:00 pm EST

Jack Posobiec On Ukraine’s Drone Strike Being Hidden From POTUS By Intel Community


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 4, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST

“Who Is Running The CIA.” Jack Posobiec On Ukraine’s Drone Strike Being Hidden From POTUS


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 4, 2025, at 1:30 pm EST

Austria Abandoning its Neutrality?


Posted originally on Jun 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

2025_06_02_12_13_06_Launch_of_the_New_Military_Service_project_Longer_basic_military_service_

COMMENT: Dear Marty!

Even “neutral” Austria is preparing for WW3. Military service is to be significantly extended and “expanded.” Civilian service is to be “further developed.”

The Neos party, as well as other Austrian parties, are in favor of abolishing neutrality and establishing an EU army.

Anyone who wants to see clearly sees war on the horizon. Austria will once again be crushed in a world war. I’ve already said goodbye to my former homeland.

The unfathomable injustice and suffering you endured in solitary confinement have forged you into a very strong person and not broken you as they had hoped. This gives me hope that you will remain with us for a long time to come!

GB

REPLY: Austria has been on the wrong side three times in history. We are approaching the 224-year cycle of political change from 1805 in just two years – 2027.

  • 1805: Major defeat leading to the end of the Holy Roman Empire.
  • 1918: Total defeat and dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in WWI.
  • 1945: Defeat as part of Nazi Germany in WWII, followed by occupation.

Therefore, the most complete military defeats leading to the collapse of the Austrian state as it existed at the time occurred in 1918 (end of the Habsburg Empire) and 1945 (end of Nazi rule). Since regaining independence in 1955, Austria has maintained a policy of neutrality and has not been involved in any wars. That is what is being thrown out the window, as has been the case with Sweden and Switzerland. This is NOT a good outcome for Austria. We will run our models of Austria specifically and report soon.

CNN & Risk of Fake News Promoting WW3


Posted originally on Jun 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Cuban Missile Crisis

I distinctly remember 8th-grade history class, perhaps because of the Cuban Missile Crisis, as the kids’ war caught the headlines and everyone’s attention. I was about 11 years old at the time. I recall walking with my friends, and we were all discussing nuclear war. So, perhaps against that backdrop, in history class, the teacher brought up the Spanish-American War and how the media helped create that war to sell newspapers. That statement I always remembered. Perhaps she, too, made that connection because of the Cuban Missile Crisis. It was my first lesson in Fake News. Little did I know at that tender age that I would stumble upon a frequency that dictates life, that the New Yorker Magazine called – The Secret Cycle. From that Cuban Missile Crisis, the target was the start of the War Cycle once again in 2014, with the Ukrainian Revolution, which the Neocons orchestrated.

Hillary it was my turn

The constant lies the press from RussiaGate to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election that Hillary claimed she really won, succeeded in convincing 70%+ of Democrats that Russia was our #1 enemy. All of that fake news has left a scar upon the United States that is still with us as the media continually bashes Trump and elevates Zelensky to the level of George Washington.

Lindset Gracham Joe Wilson

There were even proposals to place a marble bust of Zelensky in the Capitol Building, alongside those of Washington and Jefferson. It was embarrassing to be an American and display such stupidity. Who made such a proposal? None other than the other Neocon from South Carolina, alongside Lindsey Graham, the Neocon Joe Wilson made the proposal for the bust of Zelensky.  The world would be a lot safer if South Carolina were expelled from the Union.

PulitzerHearstWarYellowKids
Spaniards_search_women_1898

It was the media that created the Spanish-American War. As with all cycles, we have returned to the trend of yellow journalism, which is based on sensationalism and crude exaggeration. Pulitzer and Hearst went head-to-head. I remember grade school history class blaming the Spanish-American War on fake news. There is one such story that male Spanish officials were strip-searching American woman tourists in Cuba looking for claimed messages from rebels. This was the front page of Hearst’s newspaper showing what has become known as “yellow journalism,” whereby the illustration was by Frederic Remington and published in the New York Journal on February 12th, 1897.

Hearst’s New York Journal was called out for this fake news by its rival Joseph Pulitzer’s, New York World,  reporting that this story was erroneous and its graphically illustrated strip-search of a woman aboard a U.S. passenger steamer was fake. The Journal article was written by Richard Harding Davis, who reported that Spanish authorities boarded the U.S. steamer, the Olivette, as it prepared to leave Havana and searched several passengers for contraband. Among the passengers was a young Cuban woman named Clemencia Arango, whose brother was a leader in the insurgency against Spanish rule. The Journal’s article was ambiguous, implying the woman was strip-searched by men, which was created by the accompanying illustration of Frederic Remington.

The New York World attacked the Journal’s fake news, quoting Arango as denying that men had strip-searched her. That task, she said, had fallen to a matron, or “inspectress.”The Journalist Davis, in a letter to the World, then blamed Frederic Remington for having drawn an imaginary picture” and insisted his dispatch had not reported that men had conducted the search.

Nevertheless, this story of the strip search discredited the Journal as being unreliable and prone to publishing “fakes” and other thinly documented reports. Welcome to the present, where the New York Times and Washington Post seem to be carrying on in the same unreliable manner as well as ABC, CBS, NBC, and, of course, CNN. All we hear is how Russia invaded Ukraine “unprovoked,” and this time, they are cheering on World War III with every breath they take.

Trump not informed

Trump has come out and stated that Zelensky has lied, and they never informed the US before they attacked Russia’s nuclear bombers for the EU, so they can invade Russia, which has been the plan all along. I have explained that both Germany and Japan are two economies that are shrinking.  The risk of default in Europe is actually German, as is the case with Japan. Merz is gun-ho on war because he understands that Germany is in dire condition and is at risk of defaulting. This is why they have abandoned their austerity all for war.

CNN Trump Cheap Talk

CNN ran a story written by Gleb Garanich of Reuters. The anti-Trump pro-war attitude is so clear. He wrote:

When it comes to ending the war in Ukraine, President Donald Trump’s statements and social media posts have become meaningless.

Receding chances for a ceasefire and peace deal soon will depend instead on whether he finally finds the steel to reinforce his rhetorical lashing of President Vladimir Putin over the weekend with action.

The Kremlin is betting he won’t.

It dismissed Trump’s frustration with the most intense Russian drone attacks on Ukraine as a symptom of “emotional overload.” And experience suggests Putin can get away with calling the US president’s bluff. After all, Trump’s Truth Social critique of the Russian leader as “crazy” on Monday was leavened with a characteristic rebuke of the victim — Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Still, the intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians appear to be a deliberate Russian test for Trump, a week after his hyped call with Putin, which made no progress toward peace despite the White House spin.


Cuban Missile Crisis II

The second wave of the Cuban Missile Crisis had a turning point on December 5th, 2022, which was the formal implementation date for the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil imposed by the G7, the European Union, and Australia. This was a significant economic measure aimed at limiting Russia’s revenue from oil exports to fund its war, while theoretically maintaining Russian oil’s flow to the global market.

We have pushed Putin into a corner. Either he gets aggressive, or he will be replaced. This is Russia’s Pearl Harbor. The youth will respond just as they did in the USA. This is what NATO has been praying for – WWIII, and they are praying that Putin attacks anything in NATO. They have crossed every red line Putin has drawn, trying to get him to attack. The media is cheering the destruction of the West as if we can obliterate Russia without ever suffering a single blow. Is this to sell advertising again? Or is this just brainwashed journalists thanks to Hillary’s lies?

Silence is Dangerous – Putin and Trump Quiet as Zelenskyy Brags and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Turkey End After Less than One Hour


Posted originally on CTH on June 2, 2025 | Sundance

President Trump has not made any statement after Ukraine launched an attack yesterday deep into Russia targeting long-range nuclear capable bombers.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has also remained quiet throughout the day today.  However, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaking from Vilnius, Lithuania, publicly bragged about the operation today.

According to Turkish officials (note silence from Russia & Ukraine), the previously scheduled meeting between Russian and Ukranian negotiators ended today after less than an hour.  There are no details about what took place inside the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul, just that once the meeting attendees were seated and gave initial remarks, the event dissolved.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian teams left the building.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared full of nervous energy as she spoke to journalists outside the White House, noting that President Trump was in meetings and discussions all day while taking phone calls.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have also remained silent.

Inside Russia the general sense is one of preparation.  As I noted in my debrief from last year, the government of Russia has been preparing the Russian people for an expanded escalation of the conflict for quite some time.  The Russian media are deliberately pointing to Ukraine -and only Ukraine- in their domestic reporting of the attacks.  There is no mention within Russian media of EU, NATO or USA support for the events that took place Sunday; however, there were a few mentions of Great Britain as a likely assistant to the attacks.

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -A second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended barely an hour after they began in Istanbul on Monday, Turkish officials said, a day after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

The talks – the second such direct contacts between the sides since 2022 – had already begun nearly two hours later than scheduled with no explanation of the delay.

[…] Ukraine and Russia have issued starkly different assessments of the damage done to Russia’s fleet of nuclear-capable bombers – a key element in its nuclear arsenal – but it was clear from publicly available satellite imagery that Moscow had suffered some serious equipment losses.

[…] The two sides had been expected to discuss their respective and wildly different ideas for what a full ceasefire and a longer term path to peace should look like amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said the U.S. could abandon its role as a mediator if there is no progress. (read more)

Zelensky’s Gauntlet – Did Ukraine Just Draw the USA and NATO Closer to War with Russia by Targeting Russian Strategic Long-Range Bombers Covered by SALT and START Treaties?


Zelensky’s Gauntlet – Did Ukraine Just Draw the USA and NATO Closer to War with Russia by Targeting Russian Strategic Long-Range Bombers Covered by SALT and START Treaties?

Posted originally on CTH on June 2, 2025 | Sundance

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember.  People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and START).  Our U.S. long range nuclear capable bombers, covered under the same agreements, are also visible.

Ukraine President Zelenskyy is playing with fire by targeting them, which also explains why Zelenskyy never told President Trump in advance.

The U.S and NATO have provided the means. However, #1) did Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just exploit a vulnerability by targeting Russian long-range nuclear capable bombers?  and #2) was the CIA and NATO intelligence community a willfully blind participant knowing they would benefit?

Both the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), call for U.S. and Russian long range nuclear capable bombers to remain “visible and observable by national technical means of verification.”  That open visibility creates a mutual vulnerability as well as a method of surveillance and verification for both the USA and Russian Federation.

[Article III, Paragraph 7, START Treaty Overview]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and by extension his NATO enablers, just exploited that SALT/START vulnerability and used drones to attack Russian bombers covered by USA-Russia treaties.  There are reports (and videos) now surfacing from inside Russia showing the Russian Federation moving strategic long-range mobile missile launchers into position for a counterattack against Ukraine.

This situation is obviously very fluid and let us all hope that President Trump and President Putin are in communication about this escalation as created by Zelenskyy and his enablers, even if -and probably especially if- our own intelligence agencies are part of the enabling.

Think about the ramifications of NATO enabled Ukraine targeting major Russian military assets which are vulnerable only because they are part of a previously agreed U.S-Russia negotiation to remain vulnerable.  In essence, an argument can be made by Russia that NATO -and by extension us- have targeted nuclear capable missile systems, and those systems were protected by the SALT/START treaties.  How would we respond if an adversary launched a strike against our strategic long-range nuclear capable bombers in the USA?

[Page 29, START Treaty Article XII – “TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON THE REDUCTION AND LIMITATION OF STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ARMS]

I cannot imagine how President Trump would address a phone call with President Putin when the leader of the Russian Federation confronts him with the reality that it was NATO and USA military support, actual hardware and technical capability, that has provided Ukraine with the ability to target strategic nuclear weapons.

If President Trump did not know of the strike target in advance, which is the element being reported and confirmed by multiple media outlets, this would indeed put Trump in a very difficult position.  That reality is likely the motive for Ukraine never to have informed the White House.

Keep in mind the SALT/START treaties are between the USA and Russia only, not necessarily including NATO or European countries.  However, the U.S. govt has publicly and openly been sending military hardware and technical resources into Ukraine.

If President Trump or his National Security Council were made aware that Ukraine was going to strike at nuclear capable targets covered by strategic defense agreements, I strongly doubt President Trump, or any member of his administration would have approved or consented to any participation or support.  This is just too strong a provocation to enlarge the conflict and draw NATO into it even deeper.

What happens next is unknown.

President Barack Obama negotiated New START, a successor to President Ronald Reagan’s 1994 START I Treaty. START I cut long-range, or strategic, nuclear arsenals by 30-40 percent. New START slashed accountable deployed strategic arms by another three-quarters. In 2021, Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin extended New START until next February 2026.

RESOURCES:

New START TREATY 2023

START Treaty 2009-2017

Dept of Defense ASD(A)

URGENT: I have Spoken with DC – Zelensky is Full of Shit


Posted originally on Jun 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Zelensky Stamer

The claims from Ukraine that they informed Trump BEFORE the attack is total Bullshit!!!! He is trying to make it sound like the USA has his back. I have been upfront, and they know I will speak the truth and not be partisan. I believe that there is NO support for sending money to Ukraine, and I do not believe this attack was even possible without intelligence that I suspect came from MI6 out of the UK. I am screaming at the top of my lungs in DC, and there are people who are listening to me. I have just gotten off the phone with high-level people in Congress and was told there is ZERO support among Republicans for any intervention from the USA.

I said I would try to verify Zelensky’s claims that they informed Trump BEFORE the attack. What I have been able to uncover so far is that it is a lie, and Zelensky may be trying to intimidate Putin by pretending to have support from Trump. I cannot see that this would have been in Trump’s character, as it was a foolish move. This seems to be a desperate move again to try to get Putin to attack NATO so they can once again tell the fake mainstream press that Putin is the aggressor and this was “unprovoked,” as they always put out.

I am doing everything in my power to try to keep the USA out of this EU war to cover up their economic failure.