Kissinger on Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Geopolitical re-Posted May 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I am sure he would never remember me, but we met a long time ago in Washington and he taught me a lot. I had asked him the question about the China v Russia tactic under Nixon. At 99, he still has a sharp mind. My mother died at 99 and she too retained a sharp mind until the end.

Jill Biden Goes to Ukraine – Not Joe


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted May 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

They are calling it a first, for this is the first time a First Lady has ever been sent to a war zone. This illustrates the crisis in Washington. Biden’s mental capacity is in serious decline and they fear his gaffs may even start a nuclear war (LOL). The scuttlebutt in DC is that if Joe even tried to push the button, assuming he could find it, those around him will not allow him to do it. The restraints are on and as they say – Houston. We have a problem.

NBC Presents the 2022 Political Abortion Question that CNN Already Answered


Posted originally on the conservative treehouse on May 8, 2022 | sundance 

The recently demoted Chuck Todd, who’s daytime show is now only on stream, ponders the great curiosity for his sheltered audience about whether abortion will swing the 2022 election in favor of the communist, left-wing, collective agenda.

Chuck Todd doesn’t have any actual data to frame his fairy tales, but fortunately CNN did a poll a few days ago of the exact questions puzzling NBC.

CNN did an extensive poll on this question of young people voting – [pdf here]

CTH pulled all the poll data into one easier to read infographic of the responses by age (below).  The 18-to-34-year group are not single-issue voters.

31% of that age group say a candidate MUST agree with them on abortion, while 69% say abortion is only one of several factors or not much of a factor.

The 18–34-year group is also reasonably pragmatic. If Roe v Wade overturned, 21% say abortions likely to be banned where they live; 31% say likely harder but not banned; 26% say it wouldn’t make a difference; and 22% not sure what would happen where they live.

{pdf Data Available Here}

Abortion is just not the winning issue Democrats had hoped it was…

Sunday Talks, Michigan Attorney General “Politicians Do Not Belong in Doctors’ Offices” – Unless, of Course, Politicians are Forcing Experimental Vaccines


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 8, 2022 | sundance

Michigan was one of the most aggressive states to limit freedom and bodily autonomy during their COVID-19 mitigation effort.  The state governor and state attorney general decreed unilaterally the rules for Michigan citizens without representative voice, to include vaccine mandates.

Today, during responses to the possibility that national abortion laws will revert back to the states, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel now says, “politicians do not belong in our doctors’ offices,” and that if Roe v Wade is overturned by the Supreme Court, in Michigan “women are going to die.” WATCH: 

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Sunday Talks, Eric Holder Says AG Garland Should use J6 Investigation to Indict Donald Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 8, 2022 | sundance

In this interview former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, a man of highly corrupt character, is asked about current Attorney General Merrick Garland and the January 6, 2021, DC insurrection witch trials [06:49 prompted].

Holder gives the game away behind the J6 effort, a collaboration between a corrupt congress and a corrupt justice dept, when he states that Donald Trump should be indicted by Merrick Garland later this summer.  “Given what we have learned, I think he has to be held accountable.”  WATCH:

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The intention of the J6 committee is to create a legal path to interfere in the 2022 mid-term election and simultaneously target Donald Trump (and others) for prosecution, in order to keep him/them out of office.  The J6 effort is lawfare in its purest form.

When they see 10,000+ people show up to every single MAGA rally and event, the political operatives in both wings of the UniParty in DC know they must take action.  The system rulers are attempting to protect themselves from the people they claim to rule.

Sunday Talks, Lockheed Martin CEO Says Business Booming Under Biden Administration, Expecting Increased Conflict in Europe, North Korea, Iran and Tiawan


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 8, 2022 | sundance 

This is one of those interviews that will likely not gain much attention; however, if you listen carefully to how Lockheed Martin CEO James Taiclet describes the need for expanded operations throughout their facilities you get a good perspective on the scale of anticipated foreign intervention by the crew behind Joe Biden.

Joe Biden recently traveled to Alabama to thank Taiclet and his company for increasing production of Javelin missiles.  In this interview the weapons manufacturing CEO states the timeline to increase production is a few years and he anticipates the Ukraine conflict will be ongoing throughout.

Additionally, due to the Biden foreign policy James Taiclet happily anticipates conflicts beyond Ukraine, in Tiawan, Iran and North Korea.  The CBS stenographer Margaret Brennan doesn’t even pause as she asks questions about how fast more of these wonderful bombs and missiles can be made available. Not a moment of reflection amid the gleeful war drums. Quite remarkable.  WATCH:

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Lying Biden


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden has been lying to the public since he entered his political career decades ago. Yet, he allegedly received more votes than any US president in history. Trust no one.

Mexican President Calls Out Hypocrisy of Biden Sending $33 Billion to Ukraine While Doing Nothing to Support Central America Which Would Stop Illegal Migration


Posted originally on the conservative tree hose on May 7, 2022 | Sundance

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) is not wrong on this one.  AMLO is calling out Joe Biden for sending $33 billion more to Ukraine, while doing nothing financially in central America which would alleviate the migration pressure.

The article, as written, and general tone from President Lopez-Obrador, are expressed from the perspective that Biden has his foreign policy problem solving emphasis on the wrong syllable.

Put that level of subsidy into support within Central America and the migration issue would correct.  Unfortunately, as more people are becoming aware, the location of Biden’s financial emphasis is a feature of the White House plans, not a foreign policy flaw.

Ukraine is viewed as a priority because the DC politicians and corporations gain financial benefit from Ukraine spending.  If Biden were to drop $30 billion in central America, it would impede the White House agenda to keep the southern border crisis going.  The border collapse is a goal of the White House, not a mistake.

López Obrador criticized American officials sharply for being quick to send billions to Ukraine, while dragging their feet on development aid to Central America.

On his first stop in neighboring Guatemala, López Obrador demanded U.S. aid to stem the poverty and joblessness that sends tens of thousands of Guatemalans north to the U.S. border. The Mexican leader had been angered that the United States rebuffed his calls to help. (read more)

Poll, 65 Percent of Americans See Current Inflation Problem Lasting a Year or More


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2022 | Sundance

Fox News conducted a poll last week [Data Here] asking about views on the economy overall.  As would be expected the majority of Americans see the economy as the #1 issue right now.

When asked for their view on how long the issue of rising prices are likely to remain a problem, 65% of the respondants said a year or more, while 29% had a more short-term view.

It is very hard to see a short-term end to inflation, accepting the status of energy prices and the looming issue of much higher food prices later this summer and fall.  In both the energy sector and the food sector the upward pressure on prices remains incredibly strong; perhaps the strongest ever predictable scenario for much higher prices yet to follow.

Fox News – […] Three-quarters say recent price increases pose a financial hardship for their family.  And increasing numbers say they are a “serious” hardship.  Higher grocery prices are a serious problem for 44%, up from 36% in February. Same story on gas prices:  44% serious hardship, up from 35%.  (more

♦ Where are we now?   There are two sub-sets:

• Inflation on durable goods should now be nearing the apex.  The durable goods price flatlines right now as all production costs are embedded in the cost of the product.  The prices of finished goods are now set; inflation has caught up to production; the prices of on-shelf and inbound deliveries are higher, but stable.

Now, we enter the phase where consumer demand becomes the dominant factor in price.  Simultaneously, demand is contracting because the higher rate of inflation in highly consumable goods (energy, utility costs, housing, gasoline, food) is now a spending priority for consumers and eating a larger portion of wages.   As a result, the price of durable goods is now dependent on the ability of the consumer to pay for them.

Sellers of durable goods are going to be chasing a smaller customer base who can afford them.  Durable goods prices will remain static, and now durable goods prices will likely become part of the competitive equation.  The businesses within the durable goods sector are going to have to find customers in order to stay in business.  Incentives will show up this spring/summer as businesses need customers.   If you are a wise, careful and smart shopper for durable goods you will find deals

• Inflation on consumable goods is not yet at the apex.  It’s likely close to production parity, but prices pressures are still volatile in the upward direction. The price of gasoline and transportation overall will be a big factor in current prices of highly consumable goods.  We should see oil, gas and energy prices stabilize first.

Rents will likely increase for another three to six months, then stabilize (and, in my opinion start to fall late summer).

Housing overall is far more challenging as mortgage rates are climbing.  Refinancing as a method to bridge the income gap between wages and expenses is a big problem now in this phase.  There is going to be a period of massive fluctuations and instability in the housing market depending on region and employment stability as the recession phase of the total economy is going to bite hard.

For most regions with mixed blend underlying economies (products and services) macro housing prices have peaked in the last 15 days.  For ordinary housing purchases, not institutional investments, we should start to see price decreases again as the customer base for high prices shrinks.  Obviously, this is driven by inventory and regional specifics; however, I am talking in the aggregate within the macro housing situation.

Food prices still have some upward pressures through Memorial day.  Then a period of stability will settle, before the third wave of food inflation hits later in the summer/fall of this year; that’s when the increases in farming costs will reach the fork.

Late summer and fall food prices will likely be 15 to 20 percent higher than current prices at the supermarket.  The fresh foods will be on the upper side of the future price wave, and the processed foods on the lower end; however, both will increase.

The last factors in the food price are far more challenging to predict….  Supply?   Any problems within the food production cycle that impacts supply will drive prices, beyond what we already expect.  If there are major shortages, the prices will go even higher.

This food environment is unfortunately the best time for Big Agriculture, the Wall Street multinationals, to make the most profit.  The Big Ag multinationals will exploit every possible angle within inventory, supply and harvest controls to maximize their profit equation.  There are a great deal of unknown global variables right now that could impact U.S. food prices later this year.  The only certainty is that prices will further increase.

Joe Biden sucks.

As CNN painfully noted: “Even within the Democratic Party, just 7 in 10 approve of Biden on the economy (71%) and helping the middle class (71%), considerably lower than the 86% of Democrats who approve of his performance overall. Fewer than half of Democrats say Biden has improved the nation’s economic standing (45%), down from 58% in December.” (article link)

Remember, and emphasize as much as needed for importance, the U.S. government (Biden administration) needs inflation in order to sustain debt.

That’s why we are seeing a Ukraine spending package ($33 billion), the next round of COVID spending ($22 billion), and now a demand for a college loan bailout ($900 billion).  Combined the three massive spending packages generate another $1 trillion in artificial money, designed to keep inflation high.

The Fed (monetary policy) and White House (fiscal policy) are working together to try and manipulate the economy.  You can identify their intent by noticing both actions, raising interest rates -&- massive spending, work to counteract each other.

Right now, our U.S. economy is a game of musical chairs, and they are trying to keep the music playing.  However, the record is slowing (economy is contracting), and the music sounds weird.   Inside the economy the activity is slow to non-existent. Consumer spending is only high because ordinary stuff costs more; the overall U.S. economy is not generating any additional value.

If this isn’t “stagflation” I have no idea what it would be.

FUBAR

Elon Musk Entry into Social Media Has Triggered Techtonic Plates to Start Shifting


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Ever since Elon Musk announced his intention to purchase a social media platform, take it private as a company and emerge as a new free speech communication force, things in the tech world have been all, well, a twitter (pun intended).

It’s not just the potentially game-changing social conversation shift that is driving the news; where –GASP– actual independent expression of opinion might be permitted in the digital space; there’s also a major worry amid the preexisting platform control offices of media about simultaneously arriving financial impacts.

Business Insider has reported that Facebook parent company Meta has initiated a hiring freeze through the remainder of this year.  Additionally, following the news that woke Netflix is being rejected by subscribers, suddenly payroll obligations are a concern over there.

This comes on the heels of Amazon, and the omnipresent AWS cloud services, looking a little shaky as a business model, amid reports they have “overstaffed” their operation, according to the Washington Post.  And as we would expect, the ever tech-heavy stock market is being driven into the basement by a series of tremors in the land of all thing’s Bezos.

Techtonic tremors are surfacing everywhere while people watch for the potential of an actual, dare we say, competitive eruption?   Oh my.

The rag-tag rebel alliance is reporting to be nearing completed assembly of the ultra-MAGA Truth Social platform hopefully by the end of this month with a dedicated web application allowing all devices to connect to a larger scaled version of the Trump-inspired network.  It appears Truth Social is using the combined technology partnership with Rumble cloud operations and a partnership for dedicated server banks.

Into this maelstrom of technological competition, enters the world’s most technologically cutting-edge entrepreneur, who also happens to be the world’s richest man, who also happens to be building out his own satellite internet platform called StarLink.

The scale of consequence for Elon Musk purchasing Twitter, is akin to the metaphorical John Galt purchasing the ma’ Bell telecommunications system of the 70’s.  Yup, things be a changin’…. the Eye of Sauron, aka Google, is being challenged.

Even the Fourth Branch of Government recently appears to have taken a few body blows.   The risk of corrupt and cancerous everything being connected to corrupt and cancerous everything else becomes problematic when one unstable card in the house collapses.  If the U.S. intel community lose control of the Twitter narrative engineering platform, things get sketchy for all the dependents.

Meanwhile, the serious and stable tech engineers who never got down with the wokeism, yet kept their heads low to avoid isolation and social detection, are now starting to smile as fellow Asperger’s ally Elon Musk shows them how to have fun again, again.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand the human resource flight path toward Twitter for bright engineering minds that value innovation over social isolation.  A whole lot of people are currently stuck amid a tribe of co-workers perpetually angry about something stupid.

FORTUNE – […] It’s still unclear how a Musk-run Twitter might impact the company’s ability to retain current staff and recruit new employees. The company presented the takeover as a potential threat to its staffing abilities in an SEC filing Monday

But at least casual interest in open positions at the company has skyrocketed since the Tesla billionaire showed serious interest in taking over the company. 

In a statement to Fortune, Zhao clarified that interest is defined by the average daily clicks on Twitter job postings on the platform, compared to the average daily job clicks in a March 2022 baseline prior to the news breaking of Musk’s plans for the company.

Though clicks do not necessarily correlate to actual job applications submitted, and likely reflect current media attention, the increase shows that people appear to be interested not just in the media story, but in work available at the company.  

“Say what you will about Elon, he does have a large fanbase of ppl excited to work for him,” Zhao tweeted. “He’s much more likely to capitalize on that attraction as CEO than owner.”

On Friday, Musk shared some of his own thoughts about hiring at Twitter, sharing Fortune’s reporting.

“If Twitter acquisition completes, company will be super focused on hardcore software engineering, design, infosec & server hardware,” he tweeted on Friday morning. (more)

Giddy up.