Posted originally on Mar 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Does Socrates suggest that this will become a widespread Middle East War? Socrates’ Crude Oil forecast showed a Directional Change and a major target for March with yet a Panic Cycle in June. Socrates just gave a buy signal. My interpretation of what Socrates has been projecting is that this will not be like Venezuela short and sweet.
Paul
ANSWER: As I have explained in more detail in the report we priced at just $25 what cannot be fully aired on a blog post. The risk here is a religious war of Shia vs Sunni. The heads of the various states other than Iran are Sunni. The likelihood of them coming to aid Iran is zero. You saw Iran attacking the US military bases in all of the various states. The risk here that the Neocons have willfully ignored is civil uprisings throughout the Middle East.
The vast interior of the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Jordan, Syria (majority), and Turkey remain predominantly Sunni. There is significant hostility between some Shia and Sunni Muslims in certain parts of the world today. However, the relationship is incredibly complex. It ranges from peaceful coexistence and intermarriage in some cities to violent sectarian conflict in others.
As there is the typical Neocon claim that the people will rise up, overthrow their government, rejoice and give the Neocons a tickertape parade, has never happened even once. They say the samething about removing Putin and the Russian people will rejoice. They said the Iraqi people would rise up. That did not happen.
Regime Change has NEVER been accomplished with airpower alone. It always takes boots on the ground. Iran is 3 times the size of Iraq and it is mountainous (see Map). The Neocons have sold Trump a pile of BS to achieve their goal, which they have had for decades. This is not what Trump expected and they are destroying his legacy. Netanyahu is a Neocon, He went to school in Philadelphia and hung out with Irving Kristol, the father of the Neocons. Trump has been misled from every which direction.
The greatest risk that the Israelis and Americans have a lot of blood on their hands and people remember lost ones. Some 85 school girls were just killed in Iran. Do you think their parents will now welcome the Neocons with a tickertape parade? This risk remains turning this into a religious war which Iraq never presented. The Neocons are ruthless people who only see their objectives and nothing else. Iran was the ONLY state where the Shia were in charge of the government. I do not see the Sunni coming to their aid. This greater risk is a Shia uprising against sunni governments.
I agree, Socrates on Crude Oil is also suggesting that this will not be like Venezuela. I have said before, I believe the Neocons have so infiltrated the Trump Administration that they have constructed their version of the Iron Curtain around him because they see this as their moment in the sun.
I am naturally swamped right now. But I hope to do a private blog on all the month-end buy signals that were elected in February.
Countries with a Shia Majority
Iran: 90–95% of Muslims are Shia. Iraq: 60–65% of Muslims are Shia. Bahrain: 60–70% of Muslims are Shia. Azerbaijan: 65–75% of Muslims are Shia.
Countries with Significant Shia Minorities (10% – 40%)
Lebanon: 27% – 35% of the total population (approx. 30–40% of the Muslim population). Kuwait: 20–25% of the citizen population. Qatar: Approx. 10% of the citizen population. Syria: 13–15% of the total population (Alawites and Twelvers). Yemen: 35–40% of Muslims are Shia (specifically Zaydi).
Countries with Small Shia Minorities (Under 5%)
United Arab Emirates (UAE): Approx. 5–10% of the citizen population. Saudi Arabia: Approx. 5–10% of the citizen population. Oman: Approx. 5–10% of the citizen population (includes both Shia and other sects). Jordan: Approx. 1–2% of the population (mostly recent refugees or immigrants). Turkey: Approx. 1–3% of the population. Egypt, Palestine, Israel: Less than 1%
Posted originally on CTH on March 1, 2026 | Sundance
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a very popular tourist destination in the middle east with most travelers traveling to the playground of Dubai. Their economy and image as a safe and secure country are very important. As a result, they are keenly sensitive, proactive toward negative impressions and highly focused on international opinion/security.
Iran has been sending drones and cruise/ballistic missiles into the entire region; hitting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and Israel.
The UAE is sharing how intense they are being targeted along with the network of defense systems being deployed to intercept the attacks.
UAE Ministry of Defense confirms we successfully shot down: 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles and 541 drones fired by Iran.
On day 2, we shot down 20 ballistic missiles (8 fell in sea), 2 cruise missiles, and 311 drones. 21 drones hit civilian targets. {SOURCE}
This is a remarkable amount of Iranian firepower being targeted toward one regional nation. The air defense system of the UAE is highlighting the value in very proactive defense positioning. Quite remarkable.
“[…] – The UAE’s air defense today achieved a success rate of more than 96% in intercepting missiles after destroying 132 out of 137, and more than 93% in intercepting drones after intercepting 195 out of 209, for a total of 327 threats intercepted out of 346 with a success rate of around 95%. This is a figure that places it among the highest interception rates globally, which typically range between 85% and 95% depending on the type of threat and the conditions of engagement.” (source)
Posted originally on CTH on March 1, 2026 | Sundance
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton appears on CBS Face the Nation to discuss the ongoing U.S. military operation against Iran. Video and Transcript Below
[TRANSCRIPT] – MARGARET BRENNAN: Imtiaz Tyab reporting from Muscat, Oman. We turn now to the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Arkansas Republican Tom Cotton, who joins us from Bentonville. Good morning to you, Senator.
SEN. TOM COTTON: Good morning, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The President of the United States warned the American public that there could be casualties, American casualties. Does that mean the U.S. is putting boots on the ground?
SEN. COTTON: No, Margaret, the president has been clear that what we should expect to see is an extended air and naval campaign that’s designed not only to continue to set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but most importantly, to destroy its vast missile arsenal. Many more missiles than the United States and Israel have air defenses combined, as well as the missile launchers and its missile manufacturing capability. Now obviously one risk of that kind of campaign is that an aircraft could be shot down, and the president would never leave a pilot behind. So no doubt we have combat search and rescue assets in the region that are prepared to go in and extract any downed pilot. But barring that kind of unusual circumstance, Margaret, the president has no plan for any kind of large scale ground force inside of Iran.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The New York Times is reporting that it was the CIA that provided the intelligence in regard to the exact location of the Supreme Leader and then he was subsequently killed. You’re smiling as I say that. Are you confirming that it is true that it is the United States that pinpointed his location leading to his death?
SEN. COTTON: No, Margaret, I can’t confirm anything about the intelligence that the United States intelligence community collects. I can tell you that, of course, we have exquisite intelligence collection methods, that the location and the intentions of the Supreme Leader and the other Ayatollahs in Iran, or for that matter, the leaders of other adversaries around the world, is obviously one of the highest priorities of our intelligence community. But clearly, this operation is driven by intelligence collected by Israel and the United States that has once again proven that our nations have capabilities that no other nation on earth has.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Indeed. There are questions, though, about what happens next. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified to Congress last month and was asked specifically, what happens if Iran’s regime fails. Take a listen.
[ON TAPE]
DATE: JANUARY 28, 2026 SECRETARY RUBIO: So I don’t think anyone can give you a simple answer as to what happens next in Iran if the Supreme Leader and the regime were to fall, other than the hope that there would be some ability to have somebody within their systems that you could work towards a similar transition.
[END TAPE]
MARGARET BRENNAN: That was a month ago. We’re seeing some succession planning happening inside Iran. Is this a managed regime change here, or is the United States betting on regime collapse?
SEN. COTTON: Well, Margaret, first, I want to stress what happens next in the days ahead and probably the weeks ahead. Iran does have a vast missile arsenal, and that’s going to be the prior- prior- priority objective for this military campaign. It is destroying that arsenal that threatened American troops from bases as far flung as the Indian Ocean to Western Europe, and making sure Iran can’t rebuild it–
[CROSSTALK]
MARGARET BRENNAN: –Many of those are being fired right now–
SEN. COTTON: –As far as the future- well, but we’re stopping a lot of them from being fired before Iran can fire them. It’s much easier to kill the archer on the ground than it is to shoot his arrows out of the sky. As far as the long term future of Iran’s government, Secretary Rubio is right, I don’t think anyone can give you a simple answer. There’s probably a lot of jockeying inside of Iran right now, they have a very consultative, deliberative process to replace the Supreme Leader. There’s a reason why he didn’t want to have a clear succession plan in place. It’s hard to do that when the United States is pummeling their leadership every moment of the day. I’m sure, though, that there are also some supreme- or there are also some leaders inside of Iran who might be jockeying to audition for the role of Iran’s Delcy Rodriguez.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay, but what you just described in terms of Delcy Rodriguez sounds like it is a managed transition, not regime change. Is that accurate?
SEN. COTTON: Margaret, again, as Secretary Rubio said, it’s not a simple answer–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –Right, but we’re in the middle of it now. So don’t you need an answer?
SEN. COTTON: –We’re going to continue to hit not just their military capabilities–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –At least an outcome, a goal?–
SEN. COTTON: –But we’re going to continue to hit their military capabilities, and we’re going to continue to hit their senior leadership, the ayatollahs, who have also been complicit in 47 years of heinous crimes, not only against Americans but against their own people. Again, there’s no simple answer for what’s going to come next. But as President Trump promised last month when the Iranian people were rising up against their own regime, help is on the way. Help has arrived.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, exactly. You’re talking about what comes next, but then you’re also telling me you don’t know what comes next. So do you believe that regime change is possible from air support alone? Has a leader of the opposition been identified? Is the opposition unified to deliver in a way that President Trump is calling on the people to do? Are we arming anyone to actually challenge the regime?
SEN. COTTON: Margaret, the opposition is 90 million Iranians who have suffered under the brutal Islamic Republic Revolutionary regime for the last 47 years.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes, and the president–
SEN. COTTON: –We’ve seen in recent months that there’s–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –called them to take over their government.
SEN. COTTON: And we would all celebrate if the Iranian people were able to rise up and reclaim their freedom and reclaim their destiny. And as the president said when he promised help is on the way, help has arrived. And that’s why you’ve already seen some protests out celebrating the death of the supreme leader, the man who has brutally repressed his own people for almost 40 years. Now, we can’t necessarily dictate what course that is going to take, but the help that the president promised is on the scene, and it’s going to continue to be on the scene for probably a few weeks, as we make sure that Iran’s military is no longer capable of threatening our own troops, our Arab friends in the region and Israel, and also repressing its own people.
MARGARET BRENNAN: This is a big gamble by the president. Before the strikes, according to CBS polling, 74% of Americans said that Trump would need approval from Congress for military action against Iran. He did not seek that. If this operation takes weeks, which is how you described it, do you believe the administration has effectively made its case to the American public to expect casualties to support this action?
SEN. COTTON: Margaret, I thought the president’s eight minute video yesterday was outstanding. It laid out Iran’s 47-year campaign of terror and revolutionary violence against the United States and our people and really, the civilized world. I’m sure the president will speak more in the coming days, will have briefings to Congress–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –47 years, he did not describe imminence or justify that in that video. Do you believe that the American public is owed something more than a Twitter video?
SEN. COTTON: Margaret, I think an eight minute address to the American people, whether the president posted on social media or whether it happens on your network, is in keeping with presidential custom of addressing the American people. Again, I’m sure that he’s going to be speaking more in coming days. The administration will be briefing Congress, and we’re going to have a vote in the Congress. The Democrats are forcing a vote–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –On the War Powers Act.
SEN. COTTON: I expect there’ll be overwhelming Republican support for our troops, for the, for our troops, and for the president’s decision to finally eliminate the threat of Iran. And I would invite Democrats in the Congress to join their Democratic colleagues like John Fetterman and Josh Gottheimer and Greg Landsman in supporting our troops, in finally putting America’s foot down against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Senator Cotton, we appreciate you in your role in oversight of the Intelligence Committee, making the case for the administration. We have more questions, and we would love to put them to the administration as well. Thank you very much for your time this morning. Face the Nation will be back in one minute. Stay with us.
Posted originally on CTH on March 1, 2026 | Sundance
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is now confirming that three U.S. Servicemembers have been killed in action, and another five have been seriously injured. [SOURCE] One report indicates the three fatalities were the result of an Iranian missile strike against U.S. forces in Kuwait.
TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury. Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being returned to duty.
Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified. {source}
There are no details surrounding the deaths or injured. According to Military.Com, “U.S. forces across the region remain on heightened alert as commanders assess force protection measures and potential follow-on actions. Senior defense officials are expected to brief lawmakers in the coming hours as the scope and trajectory of the operation continue to develop.”
Dear God, we raise our voice to give thanks to You and to our brave servicemembers who have stepped up to serve and protect our country. We pray for the protection of our Armed Forces serving abroad during deployment. Keep from harm all those in the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard. Help them to be strong and courageous and do not let them be discouraged. Help them to feel Your presence. Help them to stay morally strong. Keep them healthy and free from sickness as well as injury. Guide them, be their eyes and their ears as they carry out their order and missions.
Heavenly Father, fill our hearts with thankfulness and appreciation for their sacrifice. Give us the wisdom through Your grace, to find direct words of prayer for comfort and strength. Help us to honor their service and retain our focus of abiding gratitude for their unwavering resolve as they fulfill their mission. ~Amen
O Keeper of the dawn and dusk, hold them beneath Your steadfast wing.
Let the dust of distant roads not dim the light within their eyes.
When the night leans heavy on their shoulders, be the quiet fire in their hearts.
When the wind carries the scent of danger, be the shield they cannot see.
Guide their steps through shadowed valleys, let courage rise like rivers in their veins.
Bring them home to open arms and gentle laughter, and for those who cannot return, wrap them in the eternal peace that no battle can disturb.
Posted originally on Feb 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you pointed out previously that Zelensky was a war criminal for targeting leaders in Russia. You wrote:
“Zelensky is a war criminal based on the Rules of War and Geneva. Whether the car bomb is perfidious depends entirely on the method used to get the bomb to the target. Perfidy (Treachery) is strictly prohibited under Article 37 of the Geneva Conventions’ Additional Protocol I. Perfidy is defined as acts that invite the confidence of an adversary to make them believe they are entitled to, or are obliged to accord, protection under the rules of IHL, with the intent to betray that confidence.“
Netanyahu targeted the leadership of Iran in 2025 and now they have employed the same tactics killing the Supreme Leader and several heads of the military. Trump has acknowledge that they killed the Supreme Leader. Will this seriously harm Trump’s legacy.
GH
ANSWER: There are a lot of people who are deeply angry over this attack. Not that they are pro-Iran, but they generally say they voted for Trump to stop these Neocon endless wars. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene issued a statement denouncing the president, claiming he is betraying voters who supported him for ending foreign wars.
‘Thousands and thousands of Americans from my generation have been killed and injured in never ending pointless foreign wars and we said no more. But we are freeing the Iranian people. Please,’ the former GOP lawmaker wrote on Saturday.
Tucker Carlson branded Trump’s attack ‘absolutely disgusting and evil‘ as the president’s MAGA base fractured. The fact that Tucker has broken with Trump signals that the decision to plunge the US into a major war with Iran could carry legacy-altering consequences for the president.
President Donald Trump confirmed on Feb. 28 that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the U.S.-Israeli strikes. Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do.”
I was deeply concerned when Trump took Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. He is a staunch Neocon. I knew that was trouble. Venezuela was easy. Trump most likely assumed that they would kill the leadership of Iran and it would also be quick and fast. The Supreme Leader was also the head of Shia Muslims, which know no borders. Saudi Arabia has a substantial Shia population who are located by its oil fields.
The Neocons have created endless wars always with the promise of victory and in and out, since they skirt Congress entirely. The last Declaration of War was World War II. This is NOT Trump’s idea, he is listening to the Neocons and thinks Iran will be just like Venezuela. The computer disagrees.
Posted originally on Feb 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Video
We are in contact with UAE since we do have officies there. All flights have been cancelled. The explosions have shook houses.
I was rushing to get this out because the risk is a protracted war and Regime Change from the air has NEVER worked and counting on the people rising up is never a military strategy. This report is an eye-opener to say the least. I will post it ASAP.
Posted originally on CTH on March 1, 2026 | Sundance
Iran’s state media delivered the message this way: “To the noble and proud people of Iran: With the ultimate grief and sorrow this is to inform you that following the barbaric attack by the criminal governments of America and the evil Zionist regime, the true example of faith, jihad and resistance, the Supreme Leader of the Revolution Grand Ayatollah Khamenei achieved the blessing of martyrdom.”
“Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty THUGS. He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do.
This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, “Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!”
Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves. That process should soon be starting in that, not only the death of Khamenei but the Country has been, in only one day, very much destroyed and, even, obliterated. The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!
So many people have criticized President Trump for various granular differences; some even shouting they would withdraw support. However, with his current approach toward Iran he is ending a 50-year national embarrassment, started when Jimmy Carter let freedom be destroyed, letting the ayatollahs take control and then failing to get our hostages back.
Even President Ronald Reagan, who we appreciate and respect, retreated from confrontation with Iran and pulled the Marines out of Beirut after Iranian backed terrorists bombed their base.
President Trump is spreading our eagles’ wings. Reestablishing what the fight for liberty and freedom is all about, reversing and fixing some demoralizing things past presidents have done.
God has raised this man up, delivered him from death, and I say he is blessed.
President Trump: “To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons, and have complete immunity, or, in the alternative, face certain death. So lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.” {SOURCE}
President Trump: “To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.” {SOURCE}
Posted originally on CTH on February 28, 2026 | Sundance
According to multiple confirmations following visible evidence of his body, news is now widely spreading throughout the middle east that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is DEAD.
This could rapidly escalate an end to the U.S. military operation, through regime change. We await confirmation of this news from President Donald Trump.
The very first strikes in Tehran by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were targeted to the power circle in control of government in Iran.
In a nationally televised address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just said the strikes had targeted the compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“There are growing signs that the tyrant is no longer alive,” Netanyahu said. However, earlier today, Iran’s foreign minister told NBC News that the country’s supreme leader and president were alive “as far as I know.”
Several of Iran’s top military leaders and family members of Khamenei are confirmed to have been killed, which seems to explain the unfocused attacks by Iran toward a host of middle east nations including Israel, Bahrain, Dubai, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike this morning on Iran, with his body being found recently among the rubble, Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel. {Source}
Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, an Israeli military spokesperson, says the strikes also killed other senior Iranian officials. Defrin says they included the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the defense minister, the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s military bureau and the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. {Source}
U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, after the strikes on Iran, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
BREAKING:
In Tehran, people are cheering and celebrating amid reports of Khamenei's death. pic.twitter.com/KfauCNdON8
Following the launch of U.S. combat operations in Iran, Americans worldwide and especially in the Middle East should follow the guidance in the latest security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate. They may experience travel disruptions due to periodic airspace… pic.twitter.com/eBf6u6nUvz
Posted originally on CTH on February 26, 2026 | Sundance
According to the Cuban government: “It has been established that the neutralized speedboat, registered in Florida FL7726SH, was carrying 10 armed people, who, according to preliminary statements by the detainees, intended to carry out an infiltration for terrorist purposes.”
The Cuban military opened fire on a speedboat with 10 passengers. According to established reports, 4 passengers were killed and six were wounded and captured by the Cuban coast guard forces. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the story as it surfaced yesterday (Associated Press). WATCH:
The Cuban government has released the names of those captured: “1-Amijail Sánchez González, 2-Leordan Enrique Cruz, Gómez, 3-Conrado Galindo Sariol, 4-José Manuel Rodríguez Castelló, 5-Cristian Ernesto Acosta Guevara, 6-Roberto Azcorra Consuegra. Among the deceased was Michel Ortega Casanova. Work is being done on the identification of the other 3.”
Cuba claims the boat, registered out of Florida, was carrying ten people intended to conduct terrorism in Cuba. Secretary Marco Rubio says the U.S. is conducting our own investigation to determine what took place.
In the press remarks above, Secretary Rubio also discussed the current status of U.S.-Iran negotiations.
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