Tag Archives: Jeffrey Epstein

Aug 3 2024

New York Commercial Real Estate Plunges 97.5% at Great Depression Levels


Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

23_Floor_Manhattan_Office_Building_Just_Sold_at_a_97.5 Discount

COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I had to write to say thank you so much for everything you do. When Trump was indicted, you said sell and get out of New York. Your advice has always been discussed with our board, and the decision was made to sell in light of your ECM also turning in 2024. We managed to sell our commercial real estate in New York City, and based on the auction that just took place, you saved our company and every employee in our company. With 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan that was originally sold for $332 million in 2006 and now sold at auction for $8.5 million, reality has struck with a vengeance. Your forecast for New York City will be forever remembered among our ranks. We owe you more than a dinner and a drink.

Thank you ever so much, SC

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi
Real Estate

COMMENT #2: Yesterday, the New York Times ran a sobering real-estate story headlined, “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” Apparently, inflation hit everything else but missed big-city commercial real estate. The building in the story, which used to headquarter Sports Illustrated, last sold in 2006 —admittedly at peak market— for $332 million dollars. On Wednesday, it sold at auction for only $8 million, a stunning 98% discount.MSREPLY:  On Sepetember 2nd, 2023, we warned on the private blog that the “real estate market, 2023 should produce the highest annual closing.” With the ECM turning down into 2028 and war on the horizon, what New York has done to Trump is a warning to get the hell out of New York. This decision was as bad as putting sanctions on Russia, which became a warning to everyone else: if you do not do as the American Neocons command, they will remove you from the SWIFT system.This event in New York City will send tremors throughout the nation. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) peaked on our models in 2020 in REAL TERMS with COVID. Ever since the need for office space has taken a nosedive, as I have said, if I were Trump, I would have handed them an office building for the fine and then bought it back at 10% when they auctioned it off. With its political vendetta against Trump, New York has only made New York City the leader in the decline, and we have NOT seen the bottom yet. This will send panic among the smart people, and this will cause further contagion to spread to residential property, which has been propped up because of jobs in New York City, which we still show are in crash mode into 2028/2029.

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Banks’ CRE loan books’ primary concern is exposure to the office and retail sectors. Based on our sources, we would estimate that banks’ CRE lending financed 46% of office and retail loans which most likely comes in between $700-725 billion. Added to this concern is the concentration of CRE loans on the balance sheets of regional banks. It appears that CRE loans on the books of regional banks amount to about 65% of non-multifamily CRE loans. After this auction, many banks are going to be deeply concerned about the realistic valuation of CRE properties. The risk is that this will further undermine the belief in bank stability going forward.

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Smaller regional banks will most likely pull back from CRE, which will undermine values going forward. Large banks or insurance companies are unlikely candidates to start lending into the CRE sector. The more likely lenders into CRE will probably be private credit investors, but that will also come at higher rates. The total CRE market is valued at over $10 trillion, with the office sector being the largest sector at around 24-25%.

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Refinancing Challenges for CMBS

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There there is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market that accounts for 20% of the office and retail loans. That comes in around $300 billion+, of which about $22 billion in office loans maturing here in 2024. Typically, up to 50% of that would not be a problem to roll. However, after this sale at auction, many will have second thoughts. Our sources place about 95% of those loans are only backed by Class B and Class C offices. This auction will weaken the funding potential for the lower-quality buildings, and this will accelerate the risk of strategic default into especially 2026.

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When we dig deeper, the 60-day-plus delinquency rate is only about 10%, but it is rising rapidly. This implies that we should expect more stress in the CMBS market between now and 2026. The vacancy rate in major cities nationwide is approaching 20%. In the case of New York City, this particular building had a vacancy rate of about two-thirds. The rents they collected from the remaining tenants were not even enough to cover the ground lease, no less the taxes and upkeep of the building. The losses were catastrophic, especially since they indicted Trump in New York City.

roundy_character_freaking_out_300_clr_22500

On top of all of that, then you have the flight from the Democratic Blue States to the Red Republican States post-COVID. We addressed the Commerical Real Estate on June 8th, 2023. Where vacancy rates in San Francisco were approaching 30%, in Miami they were the lowest nationally at just 15.8%. We wrote back then:

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“During the first quarter of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20% nationally for the first time really since the Great Depression. Then there are cities that have embraced WOKE to their detriment and are witnessing the worst. In San Francisco, the vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 climbed to 29.4%, up from 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Manhattan has a vacancy rate of n the first quarter of 2023 at 22.2% according to Cushman & Wakefield.  Dallas has been absorbing the flight from California so its vacancy rate is 18.7% according to Cushman & Wakefield.  The commercial vacancy rate in Miami, Florida office market has an overall vacancy which has been declining counter-trend to the rest of the nation falling now to 15.8% according to Cushman & Wakefield. In Chicago, Class-A vacancy rate stands at 19.3% while Class-B vacancy jumped to 28.3% according to Cushman & Wakefield.”

–For anyone thinking about leaving major centers like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, it does not matter how low rates might go; there will be no buyers, and you will be stuck where you are until after 2032. You may have already missed the last train.

Jul 28 2024

Saturday Speculations


Posted originally on the CTH on July 27, 2024 | Menagerie

Who among decent people, Christian or not, is not outraged at the Paris Olympic debacle? Normally, I can do tirades, outrage, enraged. But today, words, even angry ones, the ones that come too often to my lips, don’t come.

Today is a day for prayer, especially prayers of reparation, and prayers for repentance.

After my first inclination, I put down my stone. Instead of quoting Jesus on casting stones, I’ll include this one from Revelations Chapter 3.

So, because you are lukewarm, neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth.

I submit that at times, probably most of the time, we are lukewarm in our faith, lukewarm in our practice of our faith. In our prayers, our hope, our charity.

And so, I accuse myself today, as well as the performers, the endless Olympic officials and committees and politicians, and every soul who didn’t walk out of there.

Okay, changing gears.

I am so sick of Kamala ads. Go away already.

I am grateful, in no particular order, for rain, grandchildren, summer produce, farmers, cool breezes as I watch the sunset behind the mountains, that I live at the foot of a mountain and a hop from the Tennessee River, good neighbors, strangers who smile, and funny memes.

I wish I practiced the virtues more, especially tempering my tongue and self denial. I wish, oh so much, that I could sing. I wish I’d never broken my ankle. I wish I could hold all my grandchildren one more time as babies for a few minutes. I wish I could protect them from evil. I wish faith for them. I wish I had a beach house.

Your turn!

Jul 27 2024

Harker: Smith, Willis, And Bragg Deprived Trump’s Civil Rights Under The Color Of Law


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: July 26, 2024 at 07:45 pm EST

Jul 16 2024

Lawfare Apoplectic – Judge Cannon Dismisses Classified Document Case Against President Trump – Rules Special Counsel Appointment Violates “Appointments Clause”


Posted originally on the CTH on July 15, 2024 | Sundance 

Judge Aileen Cannon has dismissed the classified documents case against President Trump that was brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Using a similar argument recently included by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, Judge Cannon has dismissed the case as an unconstitutional lawfare attack. The Lawfare community, writ large, is apoplectic.

In her ruling [SEE HERE] Judge Cannon ruled the appointment of Smith was not constitutional. “The Court is convinced that Special Counsel’s Smith’s prosecution of this action breaches two structural cornerstones of our constitutional scheme — the role of Congress in the appointment of constitutional officers, and the role of Congress in authorizing expenditures by law,” Cannon wrote.

“At most, the history reflects an ad hoc, inconsistent practice of naming prosecutors from both inside and outside of government (typically in response to national scandal) who possessed wildly variant degrees of power and autonomy. The lack of consistency makes it near impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions about Congress’s approval of modern special counsels like Special Counsel Smith,” she wrote.

[SOURCE DOCUMENT]

The malevolent forces of the deep state have suffered a tremendous defeat, and the demons are shrieking.

The Washington Post, representing the interests of the U.S. Intelligence Community who fully supported the Lawfare attack, writes:

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department is highly likely to appeal the decision, and the issue may eventually reach the Supreme Court. By dismissing the entire indictment, Cannon’s decision also means that the charges are dropped for Trump’s two co-defendants, Waltine “Walt” Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira.

Even if Cannon’s ruling is eventually overruled, the decision to dismiss Trump’s indictment adds to a string of legal victories for him in recent weeks, including a sweeping Supreme Court ruling July 1 that gives former presidents broad immunity for their official acts while in office.

At the Justice Department, Attorney General Merrick Garland declined to comment on the ruling. A spokesman for Smith did not immediately comment.

On social media, Trump said Monday’s dismissal “should be just the first step” and that the rest of the criminal and civil cases against him also should be tossed out of court. He accused Democrats of conspiring against him to bring those cases, a claim that has been repeatedly denied by federal, state, and local officials. (read more)

Jul 13 2024

Remarkable Development – New Mexico Judge Dismisses Case Against Alec Baldwin Because Prosecutors Hid Critical Exculpatory Evidence


Posted originally on the CTH on July 12, 2024 | Sundance 

Remarkable Development – New Mexico Judge Dismisses Case Against Alec Baldwin Because Prosecutors Hid Critical Exculpatory Evidence

July 12, 2024 | Sundance | 156 Comments

This is quite remarkable.  Alec Baldwin broke down in tears during court today because the trial judge dismissed the case against him.

Apparently, the prosecution received a box of live ammunition from a witness.  The ammunition was from the same lot used on the set of Rust.  That evidence strongly suggested the live ammunition that made its way on to the set came from the prop supplier, rather than from the film’s armorer.

The question has always been, how did live ammunition get into the gun on the set?  The prosecution team hid the evidence and never told the defense team, a clear Brady violation. [Print Media Report Here]  WATCH:

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As much as I dislike Alec Baldwin, this judge did the right thing.  The evidence was at the center of the prosecution and withholding it was a gross violation of ethical responsibility of the prosecution.  The charges should have been dismissed, and they were.

Right is right, even if nobody does it.  Wrong is wrong, even if everybody does it.  Using corrupt lawfare tactics and hiding Brady material is wrong.  The prosecution should be sanctioned.

Jul 13 2024

Mike Benz Rings True – The Origin of the “Most Modern” Censorship Complex


Posted originally on the CTH on July 12, 2024 | Sundance

Ring of Truth (in part): At one time, merchants and other people using coins were very happy if a coin, when dropped on, say, a counter, had the proper metallic ring, of ringing sound, indicating that the metal was the right kind, not a base metal. If something has the ring of truth, then it sounds true. Not much of a guarantee, but there it is.

In this lengthy discussion (prompted to save time) there is a segment which holds good value.  Mike Benz is discussing Ukraine and whether or not the current USA position should be pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia.  Benz delivers a strong and compelling outline about how the modern censorship process was created from the 2014 Ukraine operation.

As we battle against the Great Reset with an even Greater Awakening, the value in knowing the details of our current state is large.  At the 01:14:43 point of the interview, Benz rings the truth bell hard for around 10 minutes.  Prompted, WATCH:

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Jul 12 2024

Oh Noes, Elon Triggered The Speech Police


Posted originally on July 11, 2024 | Sundance

Within a minute of Elon Musk tweeting our content everyone was happy, except me.  You see, I know the game – and it ain’t what you think it is.

Elon is part of a targeting operation for DHS/Goog.  I know this because the engineers who are told to turn the fine-tuning knobs like us. Let’s just say, we talk.

DHS and Big Tech still control the entirety of the social media ecosphere; given the “trillions at stake” in manipulating public opinion, they kinda have to.  Rather than get angry about it, I just laugh and continue telling everyone what’s going on.

After deplatforming, we built this place to be antifragile. So, as you pull out your portable transponder units, ie cell phones to receive the latest intel, here’s some background on the Musk outcome:

Hello,

I’m writing from NewsGuard Technologies, Inc. You may recall that our company rates news and information websites for credibility and transparency, based on nine objective, nonpartisan criteria.

We are currently writing a Nutrition Label for TheConservativeTreehouse.com, and I have a few questions related to the site’s editorial practices. These largely relate to our list of criteria we use to evaluate websites, found here.

1- We found that the site continues to publish false or egregiously misleading content. For example, a January 2024 article titled “Tucker Carlson Asks if the COVID-19 Genetic Modification Vaccine Changes Your DNA” stated: “four years later questions are being raised about what that mRNA process might actually have done to the human genome.”

The article includes former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s interview with surgeon general of Florida Dr. Joseph Ladapo, in which Carlson asked, “Could foreign DNA enter your cells through the mRNA COVID vax and change your DNA — and humanity itself — forever?” To which Ladapo said, “Absolutely that could happen.”

COVID-19 mRNA vaccines don’t change human DNA. While mRNA vaccines such as Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines use a small part of an antigen’s genetic code to help a person develop antibodies, rather than small or inactivated doses of the antigen, they cannot change a person’s genetic makeup.

According to the website of the National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), mRNA COVID-19 vaccines work by injecting cells with synthetic mRNA (molecules that transport genetic material within a cell), which contain instructions for generating the COVID-19 spike protein. (The spike protein is found on the surface of the COVID-19 virus and facilitates entry of the virus into healthy cells.) Production of the protein prompts the body to mount an immune response against COVID-19 without having ever been exposed to the virus.

“There is no risk of an mRNA vaccine changing your DNA because mRNA does not have the ability to alter DNA,” the NHGRI says on its site. “Your cells constantly make their own mRNA. The synthetic mRNA in the vaccine acts like any other mRNA that your cells make.”

A May 2024 article titled “Some People Surprised – The FBI Was Prepared to Use Deadly Force Against Trump Security Detail During Mar-a-Lago Raid to Regain Deep State FBI/DOJ Secrets” stated: “Apparently the FBI was prepared to engage in a gun battle or kill people in Mar-a-Lago in order to retake the evidence against them. I know it sounds scary, but that’s the reality of our modern FBI.”

The article misleadingly states that the FBI was prepared to kill people during the August 2022 raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. This claim is based on misrepresentations of an FBI document, unsealed by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in May 2024, that included standard language about the potential use of force during the execution of a search warrant.

The FBI document, known as an “operations order,” did include a clause stating that officers conducting the raid on Mar-a-Lago “may use deadly force only when necessary.” The order defined “necessary” as “when the officer has a reasonable belief that the subject of such force poses an imminent danger of death or serious physical injury to the officer or to another person.”

However, in a legal motion filed in a Florida district court in May 2024, Trump’s lawyers misquoted this language as giving FBI agents permission to “use deadly force when necessary” — omitting both the word “only,” as well as clarifying language stating that agents were permitted to use deadly force only when facing “imminent danger of death or serious physical injury.”

In fact, the language used in the operations order is standard for FBI search warrants and does not constitute an order from President Biden or the U.S. Department of Justice to kill former President Trump. In a statement to The Associated Press in May 2024, the FBI described the language used in its operations order as “standard policy statement limiting the use of deadly force.”

“No one ordered additional steps to be taken and there was no departure from the norm in this matter,” the FBI wrote in the statement.

Do you stand by these articles or would like to comment on them?

2- We have been unable to find any corrections made to content on the site. Do you have any examples of corrections made to recent original content you can share with me? If not, why aren’t there any corrections?

3- Why doesn’t the site disclose its ownership or provide any information about its editorial leadership?

4- Similarly, why doesn’t the site provide contact information or biographies for its authors?

So you’re aware, we regularly incorporate comments from publishers in our reviews, so this conversation should be considered on the record.

Thank you for your time in advance.

Best,
Nikita

Nikita Vashisth, Analyst
NewsGuard Technologies, Inc.
nikita.vashisth@newsguardtech.com

Seriously folks, this information monitoring is all just a little too funny.  The need for control is a reaction to fear.

…”There is no such thing as “disinformation” or “misinformation”.  There is only information you accept and information you do not accept.  You were not born with a requirement to believe everything you are told; rather, you were born with a brain that allows you to process the information you receive and make independent decisions.”… 

BOO!

1 – I stand by everything.  It’s all just information.

2 – I think I made a correction once. Use your spiders to find it. Good luck.

3 – We the People own The Conservative Treehouse. I’m just the steward.

4 – If we didn’t have contact information, how did you contact us?

Lastly, do I need a speech impediment to pronounce “Vashisth”? 

Warmest regards,

~ Sundance

Jul 8 2024

Message Sent – Philadelphia Radio Station Fires Broadcaster Who Revealed That White House Gives Scripted Questions to Talk Show Hosts


Posted originally on the CTH on July 7, 2024 | Sundance

WURD radio in Philadelphia, bills themselves as the only black-owned and run talk radio station in Pennsylvania, according to its website.

According to WURD, radio host of “The Source,” Andrea Lawful-Sanders, was fired for accepting scripted questions from the White House for use in the interview with Joe Biden. [Press Release Here] However, in the non-pretending reality of the situation, everyone understands Mrs Lawful-Sanders was actually fired for revealing the Joe Biden White House sends scripts for media personalities to use.

Mrs Lawful-Sanders was not fired for using the questions, she was fired for revealing them.  The message from the only black-owned radio station in Pennsylvania, was a warning to others not to tell the public how the fraud around Joe Biden is created.

Philadelphia – Philadelphia radio station has cut ties with the host who admitted to asking President Biden only questions that were supplied to her by his campaign, WURD Radio’s leadership confirmed Sunday.

Andrea Lawful-Sanders, who previously hosted “The Source” on WURD 96.1 FM, scored the first post-debate interview with Biden last Wednesday.

However, on Saturday, she revealed that she was fed eight questions by the Biden campaign — and used four of them as her only queries to the president.

Sara Lomax, WURD Radio’s president and CEO, said Sunday that she was not involved in negotiations for the interview. “The interview featured pre-determined questions provided by the White House, which violates our practice of remaining an independent media outlet accountable to our listeners. As a result, Ms. Lawful-Sanders and WURD Radio have mutually agreed to part ways, effective immediately,” Lomax said. (read more)

Read what the radio station said below.

[Press Release Here]

In order to believe the statement by the radio station, you would have to believe the black-owned radio station that operates in the #1 destination for Joe Biden’s visits (Philadelphia), which was targeted for use by the White House communication team that is assembling another race-based candidacy, had no contact with the communication team of the President to organize the schedule, production, purpose and content of the interview.

That level of pretending is just silly.  Nope, Mrs Andrea Lawful-Sanders was fired for being honest about how the process is done.

The people who handle Joe Biden are responsible for her firing.

Black livelihoods matter?  Nope, not when they run against the narrative used to control black lives.

Jul 3 2024

Brat On Presidential Immunity: “No Evidence” President Trump Will Overreach After Immunity Ruling


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: July 02, 2024 at 09:00 am EST

Jul 3 2024

Free Steve Bannon! | The Interview that made him a marked man | TO THE FED!


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: July 02, 2024 at 07:00 am EST