Uncertainty is the Mother of Volatility

QUESTION: Well you called this year the political year from hell. You got that one right again. Between trying to figure out the politics in the US, we have Britain in turmoil and Italy trying to figure out if they should stay or go. Hungary becoming more defiant and Sweden swinging to the right. You are the best at forecasting this sort of crazy stuff. You got BREXIT right and Trump’s victory. I can see your model looks at the economics and predicts a response that becomes political change. So what does this all mean?


ANSWER: Regardless of your political persuasion be it for or against any of these political issues, the importance is really the impact upon CONFIDENCE. If you are for or against Trump, we still have one thing in common. We just want stability and some sense of the future to bank on. For example, if Trump were to go down, the impact upon the world market could be very dramatic and how we then stage ourselves to survive this type of financial chaos is critical. It is the same situation in Europe. If Italy pulls the cord to get out, the Euro cannot survive. What I hear from Behind the Curtain is that the ECB may be forced to cut its bond purchases by 50% and there are even those demanding Quantitative Easing MUST end by the end of the year. Draghi has DESTROYED the bond markets in Europe. Stopping QE will result in interest rates going up dramatically.

As I have said, Trump is the Counter-Trend or FALSE move. I fear what comes afterward be it now or in 2020. My experience has been that the political machine will NOT reform or look at the crisis in motion economically REGARDLESS or who is in office. Be it Democrat or Republican, they will hunker down to support the status quo of the system and that is the bottom line.

All this chaos with Trump reflects how serious the situation has become. The career politicians are desperate to get control back but they will not reform or care about the country and I seriously doubt that Trump really understands the gravity of our situation right now. So welcome to the year from Political Hell because this undermines confidence and creates UNCERTAINTY and that is the moth of volatility. So, there is no point in getting all uptight for or against Trump, Theresa May, or any Juncker in Brussels. The computer does not show that ANYONE will be able to reverse the direction we are headed into. This is merely our fate.

Step back and look at politics as the source of the moves that await us. Getting rid of Trump will only add to the uncertainty sooner than later and we have nobody on either side of the aisle who has a clue of what needs to be done or what is coming around the corner. So, look at this objectively. This is about understanding what is behind the trading strategy. That’s it. Nothing more. Nobody can save the day. We have to save ourselves. The computer is objective. It does not vote. I trust its projections for it is detached emotionally

What Kind of System is Better? Parliaments or Fixed Term Republics?

QUESTION: hi martin just a quick question about government systems. Do you think the USA would be better served by adopting a parliamentary system of governance( like for example the UK) or do think it is better served by a presidential system?

Love to know your opinions

all the best a

ANSWER: Now. The Parliamentary System is inherently far more anti-democratic. It promotes small minorities to impose their will upon the majority in order to form governments. For example, while Angela Merkel has been the Chancellor of Germany and the real power behind Brussels for whatever Germany says, the rest of Europe must jump, when you look at who actually votes for Merkel you will notice that she draws well below 40% of the vote. That means she then remains Chancellor by cutting deals with minority parties to retain personal power. Hence, you have no idea what you are voting for because even if she told the truth about what she stands for, she will have to compromise that position to hold on to power.

The French system is better insofar as you can start with 10 different parties but there are run-offs until you get down to two. The people have to vote for one or the other.

The American system was based upon the Roman Republic, which collapsed because of pervasive internal corruption by career politicians. The office of Dictator would be a person appointed to simply cut through that inability to make decisions as we see today in the US Congress because each side will oppose the other to deprive them of any credit. A Roman dictator was a magistrate of the Roman Republic, to whom they entrusted the full authority of the state to deal with some emergency or to undertake a specific duty. Every other magistrate were subordinate to his rule. Even the right of the plebeian tribunes, who no one could touch and had the power to charge politicians, could not veto his actions and any right to appeal was extremely limited.

Nonetheless, they respected that there could be an inherent danger to take over the state. Therefore, to prevent the dictatorship from threatening the state, his powers were limited.  For example, a dictator could only act within his intended sphere of authority. This is something that Mueller is in serious violation of as Special Prosecutor. A Roman dictation could never roam freely and charge people with crimes outside of the purpose for which he was appointed. Additionally, a Roman dictator was obligated to resign his office once his appointed task had been completed. This too is something completely out of control today as with Mueller. He can remain in that position for 8 years as long as Trump could possibly be in office. A Roman dictator’s terms would require renewal every six months. There is no review of Mueller allowed.

The American system is far the superior political system. However, it lacks limitations to prevent oligarchies. There should be term limits for all politicians to prevent careers which lead to corruption and tyranny.

The term of office should be limited to ONE YEAR and out. They should serve as the supervisors of the bureaucracy. The power to indict must be taken away from the Department of Justice and that decision should be also presented to a panel of independent lawyers who make that decision, not a prosecutor. There should also be no prosecutorial immunity. I for want would require that everyone votes from a computer on each bill and the bill cannot be greater than two pages in length and it may not involve more than one subject matter.

Any law must be FIRST ruled on if it is Constitutional BEFORE it is enacted. Judges should be appointed by lawyers, not politicians, and they should serve for no more than two years. No criminal offenses should involve jail or prison EXCEPT for violence and political corruption. I am sure there are a few other safeguards we can add. This is not my manifest in total

DC: Nellie Ohr and James Baker Refusing to Testify to Congress…

According to sources responding to The Daily Caller, Nellie Ohr and James Baker are refusing to willingly testify to the joint House Oversight and Judiciary committee chaired by Bob Goodlatte.   Nellie’s husband Bruce Ohr, a current DOJ official, previously testified to the committee; however Nellie Ohr is not in government and may have to be subpoenaed if Chairman Goodlatte wants her testimony. She was originally schedule to appear tomorrow.

UPDATE – “The Committee continues to seek the testimony of Nellie Ohr and Jim Baker and will compel their testimony if necessary.”

Nellie Ohr was a FusionGPS employee and a bridge of contact between FusionGPS and Christopher Steele.  There are strong indications Nellie Ohr may have actually authored a considerable portion of the Steele Dossier for use by the FBI.  In prior testimony FusionGPS founder, Glenn Simpson, was less than forthcoming about Nellie Ohr’s engagements; and generally misled -direct and by omission- both the Senate and House intelligence committees about Mrs. Ohr.

Additionally, The Daily Caller is reporting that former FBI Chief Legal Counsel James Baker is also refusing to cooperate.  Mr. Baker was removed from his position in December 2017, and left the FBI May 4th, 2018, after spending five months in employment limbo.

FBI legal counsel James Baker accompanied FBI Asst. Director “Andy” McCabe to a Tuesday December 19th, 2017, congressional hearing with the House Intelligence Community.  Curiously, in addition to other lines of inquiry, during the questioning McCabe was asked about whether James Baker was authorized to speak to the media about the Steele Dossier and the underlying ‘counterintelligence’ operation.  Asst. Director McCabe responded that Baker would not be authorized to take such action.

Following the December 19, HPSCI hearing, republican committee leadership announced their plan to subpoena James Baker for further questioning.  [Keep in mind Baker was there.]  Two days later, at the Thursday Judiciary and Oversight Committee hearings, James Baker did not accompany Andrew McCabe.   Hours later, James Baker is removed from his responsibilities as legal counsel within the FBI.  Cause: ‘unknown‘.  Five months later Mr. Baker resigned from the FBI.  Mr. Baker went to work with Benjamin Witts at Lawfare.


Project Veritas Third Release: GAO Auditor Admits “I break the rules every day”…

(Washington DC) Project Veritas has released the next in a series of undercover reports which unmask the Deep State. This report features a Government Accountability Office (GAO) employee and self-proclaimed Communist actively engaged in potentially illegal political activity. Natarajan Subramanian is a government auditor for the GAO and a member of the Metro DC Democratic Socialists of America (Metro DC DSA).

Metro DC DSA is a socialist group that works to advance progressive issues in the Metropolitan DC area. Subramanian’s political activism may directly violate federal statutes as well as the “Yellow Book” rules which apply specifically to government auditors.  (read more)

Shining a Light on the Deep State at State

Published on Sep 19, 2018

A new hidden-camera video from James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas catches a State Department employee bragging about how he works for a Socialist political party on-the-clock at State. Does this peek into the “deep state” make conspiracy theorists seem tame? Stephen Green leads Scott Ott and Bill Whittle to explore the implications of the enemy within. Watch this week’s Right Angle on a real plan to drain the swamp: https://youtu.be/uAJutZawF6c To become a citizen producer of this kind of content:

Chairman Devin Nunes Discusses “Unacceptable Delay” in Declassification Process…

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes has seen all of the intelligence documents, and as a Gang-of-Eight intelligence oversight member he has also received the briefing material behind the origin of FBI’s operation “Crossfire Hurricane.”

Devin Nunes was also the person who led the FISA legislative reauthorization and initiated some of the preliminary reforms surrounding the 702 process.  So Chairman Nunes is essentially the key subject matter oversight expert on the nature of the information within the declassification directive:

Conflicting Reports Over DOJ and FBI “Classification” and “Redaction Removal”…

There is nuance within the directive for declassification by President Trump.  The sets of documents are not identical in the way they are classified within the intelligence apparatus.  There are distinct differences and conflicting reports [Bloomberg Report and Washington Examiner] perhaps based on conflation and miss-identification of those differences. First, Sara Carter:


Breaking down the presidential directive to the four component parts helps  understanding the issue(s), and the likelihood for redactions within the release(s):

  • (1) pages 10-12 and 17-34 of the June 2017 application to the FISA court in the matter of Carter W. Page;
  • (2) all FBI reports of interviews with Bruce G. Ohr prepared in connection with the Russia investigation;
  • (3) all FBI reports of interviews prepared in connection with all Carter Page FISA applications.
  • (4) publicly release of all text messages relating to the Russia investigation, without redaction, of James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Bruce Ohr.

(1)pages 10-12 and 17-34 of the June 2017 application to the FISA court in the matter of Carter W. Page.”

This request is generally familiar; and the proprietary interest/ownership of the document, the June 29th, 2017 FISA renewal application, is already in the hands of DNI Dan Coats.   While DNI Coats will likely follow the process of requesting feedback from the IC community (mostly FBI and DOJ), the removal of prior redactions -and the subsequent declassification- is pretty straight forward.

(2) “all FBI reports of interviews with Bruce G. Ohr prepared in connection with the Russia investigation.”

This request is a little less straight forward; but from the sketchy DOJ and FBI perspective, also not that big an issue.  This is simply releasing the dozen FD-302 reports from FBI officials debriefing  and interviewing Bruce Ohr.  There may be some valid sources and methods that need to be redacted (ex. if Ohr mentioned a human source or intelligence asset); however, the redactions should likely be very minimal.

(3) “all FBI reports of interviews prepared in connection with all Carter Page FISA applications.”

This is where the corrupt FBI and DOJ begin to get twitchy.  This is a high risk declassification for the corrupt intelligence usurpers.  This section appears to be where  former CIA Director John Brennan is demanding DNI Coats and the FBI and DOJ leadership must defy the president.  It is in this request for all “reports and interviews” where the intelligence assets (ie. Stefan Halper, Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer) and those intelligence sources who helped frame the Crossfire Hurricane operation are located.

Here, the FBI and DOJ will likely demand HEAVY redactions because revealing names could lead to questions, subpoenas and testimony.  In this section it is likely Dan Coats would concur with redacting “sources and methods”. Redactions would be anticipated in this part of the declassification fulfillment (even if it wasn’t corrupt).

Then comes the political ‘biggie’:

(4) “publicly release of all text messages relating to the Russia investigation, without redaction, of James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Bruce Ohr”.

Key words “without redaction“.  Within this part of the directive the thousands of prior redactions are removed.  There’s no valid reason for any of the redactions to have been put into place originally.  Obviously someone inside the DOJ/FBI redacted those messages in an attempt to mitigate risk.  No-one knows who made the decisions; and the FBI and DOJ never answered any prior questions about their reasoning.

Presumably all of these messages were created over mobile devices, transmitted via open internet, likely did not carry authorized encryption, and therefore should not contain classified information upon creation.  However, in this informal messaging and discussion there is likely high-risk to discovering additional details about the motives of the corrupt FBI investigation and their actions; hence the prior redactions.

Additionally, beyond redactions there are segments of the prior Page/Strzok messages where it appears message segments were removed entirely. Example:

  • Lisa Page: “(Trump’s) not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”
  • Peter Strzok: “No. No he’s not. We’ll stop it.”

That reply from Strzok was never included in the release from the FBI. The FBI intentionally hid the Strzok reply.  The OIG only discovered it after their independent forensics noted the omission. Daily Caller [SEE HERE].

(See Page #334)

We already know the unnamed FBI officials doing the redactions were caught intentionally removing critical messages. There is no valid reason to justify any redactions or removals within this segment of the declassification directive.

Making an educated assumption here – it appears the DOJ and FBI segment with Sara Carter is likely describing this #4 section of the release.  This section is highly reliant on the FBI (Wray) and DOJ (Rosenstein), because DNI Dan Coats did not, and does not, possess the underlying text message documents.

As previously stated, the corrupt elements within the FBI and DOJ are going to fight against transparency and sunlight; they will be bolstered by corrupt democrats who are attempting to hide the prior administration malfeasance.  Their unified goal will be to delay and obstruct as long as possible. We have to wait and see what ultimately comes from this presidential directive.


Kimberley Strassel

Actually, the only choice is to follow the order or to resign. They have no right to circumvent or ignore a declassification order, and to do so, and require a firing, would amount to theatrics. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/09/19/brennan_fbi_has_obligation_to_circumvent_trump_constitutional_oath_to_united_states.html 

Brennan: FBI Has “Obligation” To Circumvent Trump, Took Constitutional Oath To United States

Former CIA director and MSNBC contributor John Brennan called on FBI director Christopher Wray, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to “push back”…


TheLastRefuge @TheLastRefuge2

The agencies can’t offer a timeline to finish their review. https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2018/09/19/fbi-doj-said-to-plan-redactions-despite-trump-s-document-order  via @BloombergQuint

FBI, DOJ Plan Redactions Despite Trump’s Document Order

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump has demanded the “immediate declassification” of sensitive materials about the Russia investigation, but the agencies responsible are expected to propose…


TheLastRefuge @TheLastRefuge2

FBI, DOJ expected to make redactions despite Trump’s order to declassify Russia documents: Report https://washex.am/2QIGojA 

Donald Trump desk of papers 061218

FBI, DOJ expected to make redactions despite Trump’s order to declassify Russia documents: Report

The FBI and Department of Justice are expected to redact some information in the materials President Trump has ordered declassified regarding the Russia investigation, according to a report Wednesday.


DiGenova Breaks down the Allegations Against Kavanaugh

Published on Sep 18, 2018

Joe diGenova on WMAL (9/17/2018) – Order your “America First” t-shirt and other cool stuff here: https://teespring.com/stores/conserva… 10 Insightful Books to Help You Understand What President Trump Is Actually up Against: https://goo.gl/62ewbj

Grassley Sets Friday Deadline For Kavanaugh Accuser…

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley has submitted a letter to ranking member Dianne Feinstein setting a deadline for Friday, September 21st, for Judge Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Ford, to respond on whether or not she will appear for testimony to support her claims. [Read Letter Here]

Chairman Grassley – As you know, the Senate Judiciary Committee has extended invitations to Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh to testify on Monday, September 24. They have until this Friday at 10:00 a.m. to let us know whether they are coming. Dr. Ford has asked for the opportunity to be heard in a hearing, and I believe she should have that opportunity.

I recognize that testifying publicly about sexual assault allegations may be difficult for Dr. Ford, so I have offered her the opportunity to testify in any of four possible venues: (1) a public hearing; (2) a private hearing; (3) a public staff interview; or (4) a private staff interview. I am even willing to have my staff travel to Dr. Ford in California—or anywhere else—to obtain her testimony. (read more)

President Trump: “I don’t have an attorney general. It’s very sad.” – “I’m very disappointed in Jeff. Very disappointed.”…

John Solomon and Buck Sexton interviewed President Trump on Tuesday September 18th, 2018, in the Oval Office.  The interview covered a variety of subjects and Solomon has posted the transcript [SEE HERE]. The interview reveals some new information, such as President Trump’s 2016 gut instinct to fire FBI Director James Comey, and his advisors –likely Steve Bannon– talking him out of it.

Additionally, within the interview President Trump notes he has not seen the content of the documents he had directed to be declassified; he is relying on the group within congress -Nunes, Jordan, Goodlatte, Meadows, Zeldin, etc.- who have investigated the details and made the requests to the executive office for declassification.

Perhaps the most important aspect to the interview is President Trump putting to rest his direct, brutally honest and forthright opinion of Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

(Via The Hill) Buck Sexton: Mr. President, why haven’t you replaced your attorney general, given all the things you’ve said and everything else that’s come out about his actions, or inactions?

President Trump: I’m so sad over Jeff Sessions because he came to me. He was the first senator that endorsed me. And he wanted to be attorney general, and I didn’t see it. But he came very strongly he really wanted to be. And, I let him be.

And then he went through the nominating process and he did very poorly. I mean, he was mixed up and confused, and people that worked with him for, you know, a long time in the Senate were not nice to him, but he was giving very confusing answers. Answers that should have been easily answered. And that was a rough time for him, and he won by one vote, I believe. You know he won by just one vote.

President Trump: He won by one vote, and it’s so sad what happened. Then he gets in and probably because of the experience that he had going through the nominating when somebody asked him the first question about Hillary Clinton or something he said ‘I recuse myself, I recuse myself.’ And now it turned out he didn’t have to recuse himself. Actually, the FBI reported shortly thereafter any reason for him to recuse himself. And it’s very sad what happened. In the meantime, I don’t have an attorney general. It’s very sad. I’m not happy at the border, I’m not happy with numerous things, not just this.

Buck Sexton: Are we going to get a wall Mr. President?

President Trump: OK, well, let me just finish this. We’ll see what happens, I mean, we’ll see what happens. A lot of people have asked me to do that. And I guess I study history, and I say I just want to leave things alone, but it was very unfair what he did. And my worst enemies, I mean, people that, you know, are on the other side of me, in a lot of ways including politically, have said that was a very unfair thing he did. You know, you’ve seen that, when he recused himself. So anyway, so, so we’ll see how it goes with Jeff. I’m very disappointed in Jeff. Very disappointed.

[…]  everyone of my Cabinet members is doing great. I just have one group that’s not been good. You know what that group is. (read full interview)

This is a prime example of the need to be intellectually honest and accept President Trump at his word. There is a tremendous amount of false-theory being cited by people struggling to accept the failure of AG Sessions to support the objectives of President Trump. “Trust the plan”, and/or “trust Sessions” are the most well-known proclamations.

Failure to modify and accept reality -against the backdrop of new information- leads to misplaced interpretations, cognitive dissonance, intellectual dishonesty and, even worse, creates a false perception of what is possible.  Keep absorbing information without rational and logical discernment long enough, and you get ridiculous “Q Theories” and grand “Stealth Jeff Sessions” plans.

AG Jeff Sessions is recused from investigating corruption within the 2016 election, operation ‘spy-gate’, operation ‘crossfire hurricane’, and the Russia investigation.  The same career OLC lawyers within the system convinced Sessions of his conflicts, and have carved the Attorney General out of the investigative processes within the DOJ.

AG Sessions did not plan with President Trump for the declassification directive. Sessions is recused:

Tashina “Tash” Gauhar – Yes, the DOJ/FBI lawyer at the heart of the Clinton-email investigation; the DOJ/FBI lawyer hired by Eric Holder at his firm and later at the DOJ; the DOJ/FBI lawyer who was transferred to the Clinton probe;  the DOJ/FBI lawyer at the epicenter of the Weiner laptop issues, the only one from MYE who spoke to New York; the DOJ/FBI lawyer who constructs the FISA applications on behalf of Main Justice;…. just happens to be the same DOJ/FBI lawyer recommending to AG Jeff Sessions that he recuse himself….

But wait, do you notice how Dana Boente (former interim head of DOJ-NSD) was participating with Peter Strzok’s lead DOJ aide “Tash” Gauhar in the discussion which recommended Attorney General Jeff Sessions should be recused? Sessions’ official announcement came immediately after this meeting on March 2nd, 2017.

Deputy Attorney General Dana Boente retired from the DOJ in October 2017.  In January 2018, amid the beginning of the sunlight furor upon the FBI, Director Christopher Wray re-hired Dana Boente as Chief Legal Counsel for the FBI.

When all those FBI lawyers are showing up with Lisa Page, Peter Strzok and Bruce Ohr during committee hearings, and telling them not to answer questions about their contacts with the media etc. who is in charge of those FBI lawyers?  The same Dana Boente.

The officials within the system of the administrative state are protecting the administrative state from scrutiny.  This protectionist outlook transfers to the Inspector General, and was evidenced in how the “summary of findings” within the IG reports did not match the details of fact within 600+ pages of evidence.

Rational discernment and the application of common sense logic is important when  evaluating the battle inside the executive branch of government.  The institutions of the FBI and DOJ appear to have been thoroughly corrupted by political operatives; and more extreme ideologues were rewarded and promoted during the prior administration.

Many of those politicized officials within the system are still present.  The election changes the leadership, but the underlying organizational corruption remains, albeit under new management.

If the goal of management to save the institution is stronger than the goal to take the institution down to brass-tacks, eliminate corruption and rebuild, then the corrupt elements are able to survive the leadership change.  By all measures, this is the current status of the FBI and DOJ.

[Back Story Link]

Because the corruption happened during their tenure, current officials within the FBI, DOJ and much of the larger intelligence apparatus, are not in alignment with the reform goals demanded by change-agent President Trump. Their goal is to fight Trump’s goals.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~Niccolo Machiavelli

From June 2017 through May 2018, CTH was optimistic the Cabinet Leadership within the DOJ and FBI would accept the scale of corruption within their institutions and embrace reform.  However, as more and more tripwires were crossed; and with the scale of the corruption even more visible; and with the calendar moving forward without any action; we were forced to accept the goals of AG Sessions, DAG Rosenstein and Director Wray were not reform goals – they are preservation goals.

The lack of action from the release of the prior two IG reports; the inability of the FBI to even acknowledge the severity within the May 2018 report on FBI misconduct; and the compounded issues surrounding the DOJ and FBI approach toward admitted classified intelligence leaker James Wolfe; leads only to one possible conclusion.  The downstream consequences of the corruption are so entirely devastating, the sunlight is actually a risk – and must therefore be ‘managed’.

Conversely, outside the executive branch there are voices in congress holding no vested interest in the systemic corruption, and therefore they are in alignment with President Trump’s demands.

Members within the executive branch are working with the other side and holding Trump hostage while trying to wait-out the election hopeful to have a change in congressional power.  This preserves their institutions and executes their goals.

It is a small valiant team within the legislative branch who are trying to help the President and force officials within the cabinet to admit the corruption.

Remember, there are multiple key leadership retirements within congress from members who are ambivalent to the outcome for President Trump.  Speaker of the House Paul Ryan; Chairman of Oversight Committee Trey Gowdy and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee Bob Goodlatte are all leaving.

We need to campaign hard, and turn out the vote en masse in November, to support this sea-change moment in congress.  We can actually achieve MAGA-minded congressional representation if we fight for it.