Twin peaks – twin lies


By Paul Driessen and Tom Tamarkin
web posted June 15, 2015

A recent NOAA article is just what Doctor Doom ordered. It claims the 18-year “hiatus” in rising planetary temperatures isn’t really happening. (The “pause” followed a 20-year modest temperature increase, which followed a prolonged cooling period.) The article states:

“Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a ‘slowdown’ in the increase of global surface temperature.”

Published in Science magazine to ensure extensive news coverage before critics could expose its flaws, the report was indeed featured prominently in the national print, television, radio and electronic media.

It’s part of the twin peaks thesis: Peaking carbon dioxide levels will cause peaking temperatures, which will lead to catastrophic climate and weather. Unfortunately for alarmists, the chaos isn’t happening.

No category 3-5 hurricane has hit the United States for a record 9-1/2 years. Tornadoes, droughts, polar bears, polar ice, sea levels and wildfires are all in line with (or improvements on) historic patterns and trends. The Sahel is green again, thanks to that extra CO2.  And the newly invented disasters they want to attribute to fossil fuel-driven climate change – allergies, asthma, Islamic State and Boko Haram – don’t even pass the laugh test.

The NOAA report appears to have been another salvo in the White House’s attempt to regain the offensive, ahead of the Heartland Institute’s Tenth International Climate Conference. However, a growing number of prominent analysts have uncovered serious biases, errors and questions in the report.

Climatologists Pat Michaels, Dick Lindzen, and Chip Knappenberger point out that the NOAA team adjusted sea-surface temperature (SST) data from buoys upward by 0.12 degrees Celsius, to make them “homogenous” with lengthier records from engine intake systems in ships. However, engine intake data are “clearly contaminated by heat conduction” from the ships, and the data were never intended for scientific use – whereas the global buoy network was designed for environmental monitoring.

So why not adjust the ship data downward, to “homogenize” them with buoy data, and account for the contamination? Perhaps because, as Georgia Tech climatologist Judith Curry observed, this latest NOAA analysis “will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration.” However, it will not be “particularly useful” for improving our understanding of what is happening in Earth’s climate system.

Dr. Curry and the previously mentioned scientists also note that the buoy network has covered an increasingly wide area over the past couple decades, collecting high quality data. So again, why did NOAA resort to shipboard data? The ARGO buoys and satellite network (both omitted in this new analysis) do not show a warming trend – whereas the NOAA methodology injects a clear warming trend.

Canadian economist and statistical expert Ross McKitrick also analyzed the NOAA approach. He concluded that it wipes out the global warming hiatus that eight other studies have found. Its adjustments to SST records for 1998-2000 had an especially large effect, he says. Dr. McKitrick also recaps the problems scientists have with trying to create consistent temperature records from the multiple measurement methods employed over the centuries.

Theologian, ethicist and climate analyst Calvin Beisner provides an excellent summary of all these and other critiques of the deceptive NOAA paper.

It is also important to note that, in reality, NOAA is quibbling about hundredths of a degree – essentially the margin of error. On that basis it rejects multiple studies that found planetary warming has stopped.

Britain’s Global Warming Policy Forum succinctly concludes: “This is a highly speculative and slight paper that produces a statistically marginal result by cherry-picking time intervals, resulting in a global temperature graph that is at odds with those produced by the UK Met Office and NASA,” as well as by other exhaustive data monitoring reports over the past four decades.

The vitally important bottom line is simple.

The central issue in this ongoing debate is not whether Planet Earth is warming. The issue is: How much is it warming? How much of the warming and other climate changes are due to mankind’s use of fossil fuels and emission of greenhouse gases – and how much are due to the same powerful natural forces that have driven climate and weather fluctuations throughout Earth and human history? And will any changes be short-term or long-term … and good, bad, neutral or catastrophic?

At this time, there is no scientific evidence – based on actual observations and measurements of temperatures and weather events – that humans are altering the climate to a significant or dangerous degree. Computer models, political statements and hypothetical cataclysms cannot and must not substitute for that absence of actual evidence, especially when the consequences would be so dire for so many. In fact, even the “record high” global average temperature of 2014 was concocted and a margin of error.

Simply put, the danger is not climate change – which will always be with us. The danger is energy restrictions imposed in the name of controlling Earth’s perpetually fickle climate.

Moreover, the IPCC’s top climate official says the UN’s unelected bureaucrats are undertaking “probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the [global capitalist] economic development model.” Another IPCC director says, “Climate policy has almost nothing to do anymore with environmental protection. The next world climate summit is actually an economy summit, during which the distribution of the world’s resources will be negotiated.”

That summit could give government officials and environmental activists the power to eliminate fossil fuels, control businesses and entire economies, and tell families what living standards they will be permitted to enjoy – with no accountability for the damage that will result from their actions.

For developed nations, surrendering to the climate crisis industry would result in fossil fuel restrictions that kill jobs, reduce living standards, health, welfare and life spans – and put ideologically driven government bureaucrats in control of everything people make, grow, ship, eat and do.

For poor countries, implementing policies to protect energy-deprived masses from computer-generated manmade climate disasters decades from now would perpetuate poverty and diseases that kill them tomorrow. Denying people their basic rights to have affordable, reliable energy, rise up out of poverty, and enjoy modern technologies and living standards would be immoral – a crime against humanity.

Countries, communities, companies and citizens need to challenge and resist these immoral, harmful, tyrannical, lethal and racist EPA, IPCC, UN and EU decrees. Otherwise, the steady technological, economic, health and human progress of the past 150 years will come to a painful, grinding halt – sacrificed in the name of an illusory and fabricated climate crisis. ESR

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death, and coauthor of Cracking Big Green: Saving the world from the Save-the-Earth money machine. Tom Tamarkin is founder and CEO of USCL Corporation and of the fusion energy advocacy groups http://www.fusion4freedom.us  and http://www.fuelRfuture.com. He is widely credited with inventing the utility industry smart meter and holds granted and pending patents in the field.

Medieval Warm Period confirmed via cave study of 3000 years of climatic variations


More confirmation that CO2 is not the primary driver for global temperature.

Global Warming Alarmists use Fear, to Extort Money. We need to say NO!


I know Will and he is world Case in his field! Anyone that would speak against him is de facto wrong

Will Happer, Physicist Princeton–with a chair position–says warmers are goofy mad


Last year I spend the weekend with Will, in Princeton, going over ‘Climate Change” with him. He was extremely helpful to me with showing me both the university and some of the theory involved there is no doubt he is a great man.

john1282's avatarJunkScience.com

I would say yes but it’s about the true believer pathology–they are committed to a sky is falling concept so they can commit to a “solution.”

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Despite attempts to erase it globally, “the pause” still exists in pristine US surface temperature data


this slight downward trend matches my model exactly and if i am right will continue for 15 more years before it turns up again.

Sea Ice Extent – Day 164 – Antarctic 2nd Highest – Global 15th Highest For This Day


Does the truth even matter today?

sunshinehours1's avatarsunshine hours

2nd Highest Antarctic Sea Ice For This Day – 1 million above the 1981-2010 mean. – Above 2 standard deviation.

15th Highest Global Sea Ice For This Day – Above the 1981-2010 mean.

Arcticno longer a record low for the day. So far 45 days in 2015 have been record lows. 2006 has 79 record lows. 2012 has 127.

Global_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_164_1981-2010Antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_164_1981-2010Arctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2015_Day_164_1981-2010

South / North

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Spectacular Collapse Of The Arctic Climate Scam Continues


After over 30 years of it being drummed into us the the planet was going to melt and kill all of us we have lost the battle the under 45 people most all of them think we are crazy for not believing what we are being told. very few under 45 people i know think Al Gore is wrong and they will not believe anything to the contrary even when you show them Charts like these. I am told that I made them up when i try! Like this insane trade deal (which will pass) COP21 will result in an agreement!

Tony Heller's avatarReal Climate Science

The Arctic was the last remaining hope of the climate criminals to maintain any credibility, and that story has completely collapsed.

As we approach mid-summer, southern Greenland is still covered with snow. This is a land where Vikings farmed 1,000 years ago.

ScreenHunter_9529 Jun. 14 00.49

Weather Webcams | Weather Underground

The melt season on Greenland is the slowest on record. Normally about 30% of Greenland is melting by now, but this year less than 10% is melting.

ScreenHunter_9526 Jun. 14 00.35Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

Greenland’s surface has gained more than half a trillion tons of snow and ice since September.

ScreenHunter_9527 Jun. 14 00.37

Near the midpoint of the melt season, Arctic sea ice is closely tracking 2006. That was the year with the highest summer minimum of the past decade.

ScreenHunter_9528 Jun. 14 00.41

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Arctic sea ice is the thickest it has been since 2006.

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst (4)

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png (2488×1960)

Ahead of the Paris conference…

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Presentation of Evidence Suggesting Temperature Drives Atmospheric CO2 more than CO2 Drives Temperature


I believe that this is a good part of the reasons I would long had the there is a 10,000 year cycle that reverse the Winter and Summer in relationship to Aphelion and perihelion which matters because of the uneven distribution of land and water.

Planned Coal Power Investments


It would seems to me that the “smart” money is on coal!

Early Hansen Co-authored Paper Notes “global mean temperature was perhaps 1 deg C warmer than today”


Looking back 4 or 5 thousand years there appears to be a cycle of ups and downs ranging around 1,000 to 1,100 years with a swing in temperatures of around 1.3 to 1.4 degrees C. Then there is a shorter cycle of 60 to 70 years with a swing of temperature of .3 to .4 degrees C. Lastly there is warming from CO2 which when modeld properly using a logistics curve (sensitivity value of around .7 to .9 C per doubling of CO2) will give an increase in temperature of between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees C from a base of 270 ppm We are now at 400 ppm so we have already realized about a 1/3 of that amount so CO2 can only add .75 additional degrees C even at CO2 levels well over 1000 ppm.
When these three items are properly alined, based on historic data going back 2,000 years, a model that matches NASA-GISS month values using a running 12 month average very closely can be constructed and it shows there will be a slight pause that will last until 2035 when a different alignment of the cycles will again cause temperature to go up. The model uses 1650 AD as the base year with a world temperature estimated to be around 13.5 degrees C back then. The model works because it correctly uses the three observed movements in global temperature.
Unfortunately since these movements greatly exceed human life times they can be ignored by politicians that use the hysteria that they generate to get laws that give them power over the people.
The primary determinant of global temperature is the “observed” 1,000 year cycle which started moving up in 1650 AD and will peak around 2150 AD; at that point no matter what level CO2 reaches we will see a drop of global temperatures for the next 500 years.