A More Sophisticated Version Of AOC


 

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, March 2019


From the attached report on climate change for March 2019 we have the two charts showing how much has the global temperature actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up about 30.0% from 1958 to February of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or twenty years.

The full 37 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data are used with out change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to compliment that plan will be a world wide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE 2019-03

Study of the Blackbody Temperature of Earth, Written first in 2017 update monthly


The purpose for this paper

This paper is not meant to be a peer-reviewed work; but it is meant to give a foundation for a more serious study of the subject matter presented here which is of determining the basis of developing a global temperature. The key is the base which what is the base temperature of the planet and, of course, it is  the solar radiation received from the sun. Therefore, the energy absorbed by the planet must equal the energy emitted by the planet and we can calculate this using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law the the result is called the blackbody temperature. The energy flux emitted by a blackbody is related to the fourth power of the body’s absolute temperature. In the case of the earth use means and averages that temperature is -18.8 degrees Celsius but wait the current temperature around 14.6 degrees Celsius today that is a difference of 33.4 degrees Celsius; where did that come from. The answer is that is the greenhouse effect. and at least 85% of that is form the water in the atmosphere making water the primary green house gas by far.

This paper has been written to show the read the basics of the science of determining the key variables that make up earth the temperature. What you will find is that the planet has been very stable over time and that its currently much cooler than it ever has been.  The following chart is developed from ice core and is onlyu one of many that show the same thing.

There are three areas of interest.

1) The amount of thermal energy that reaches the planet from the sun.
2) The amount of thermal energy that is initially absorbed by the planet.
3) The process on the planet that ‘temporarily’ holds thermal energy on the planet.

In this paper I will give a frame work for determining all three aspects.

Part One, the blackbody temperature of the planet
Part Two, the planetary greenhouse effect
Part Three, the probable range of temperatures on the planet

Appendix

NASA Table Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) April 2008
NASA Table Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) current to the date of this paper

The link below will allow you to download the paper, if you want, and at no cost.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE PAPER

The Real “An Inconvenient Truth,” Written in 2014


From the Background in the book

Back in 2004 as my work on a PEM fuel cell research project wound down there were concerns building in the news that the various regulatory programs, both in the US and else ware, were adversely affecting energy production. This was a subject of which prior experiences to include the one winding down were familiar to me from work done when I worked at General Electric, first in their R&D labs near their main production facility in Schenectady, New York and later in Erie Pennsylvanian building Diesel Electric Locomotives. With some time now available it didn’t take long with the now well established web resources for me to acquire additional technical knowledge on this subject.

After tentative research started Al Gore’s documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” was released in 2006; this documentary was produced by Davis Guggenheim and it was a story about how the burning of fossil fuels were destroying the planet. It seemed to be targeted at young adults without the education to discern truth from fiction and it was very successful in achieving negative awareness on the subject. Unfortunately, the message in that documentary was not factually correct and appeared to be only an emotional appeal to support the regulation of Carbon Emissions’ (CO2) in some form of Carbon Tax. Governments always need more money and this seemed to be a way for them to achieve that end. Unfortunately, almost all our energy comes from carbon based fuels and the proposed taxes would significantly add to the cost of producing energy. Since cheap energy is the very heart of a modern industrial society this would have disastrous economic effects.

An interesting fact, Al Gore was one of the investors that had helped set up a Carbon Trading exchange in Chicago along with a young Barack Obama (on the board of the major investor The Joyce Foundation located in Chicago) that they named the Chicago Carbon Exchange CCX in 2003. When The House of Representatives bill HR 2454 (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) was not passed by the US Senate in 2009 the CCX exchange folded the following year, 2010. Gore has been very vocal on this subject and if HR 2454 had been passed by the US Congress Gore would have become very wealth; so the question is was his involvement because he believed what he was promoting or because what he was promoting would have made him very wealthy?

By 2007 it was becoming clear that there were holes in the theory (Anthropogenic Climate Change) that was used to justify the reduction of carbon and that changed my view that this might be a real issue into the realization that this was going to be very bad and unnecessary if HR 2454, or any like bill, actually implemented. By 2008 this project was taking up a significant amount of my time and after the financial collapse, almost full time for a couple of years. During this time a method was found to model the world’s climate that appeared to work; and by 2012 it was virtually certain that this model was showing what was actually going on in the climate at the macro level.
This book is a summary of almost a decade of technical work which started in 2004, ten years ago. Although my background is neither physics nor chemistry those subjects and others such as climatology are part of my technical background as well as mathematics and statistics. Then forty years of experience as an engineer, researcher and inventor, much in the field of energy, does allow one to study and make observations on the movements of things especially when they have very obvious patterns. This book is based on observations and modeling and that is certainly something that someone with an economics and engineering background can do even without a PhD. But I should add here that this is not a book in the normal sense; it’s more a series of discussions taken from various papers and studies that I’ve written over the last decade.

This is a graphic of the energy flows in the Earths atmosphere the represents the energy flows that keep the Earths Temperature Stable that I created after I understood what was happening. Will Happer was instrumental in my education on the “real” physics involved! 

I have tried to put the works in an order that makes sense but since this is a composite there is some duplication in a few places.
Predicting what will happen tomorrow or years from now has never been easy, and never will be since there are always the messy and unforeseen things that get in the way. But having said that when a forecast is desired and a model or simulation is constructed and there is sufficient relevant information available, it may be possible to construct a model that works — as long as conditions do not change. Finding information that correlates into causal relations is the key to the success of any model; but it’s also very easy to fall into the trap of correlation but no cause and effect as data streams often move together but for many and varied reasons, some of which are not causal.

For example we have a road coming from the south going north turning to the west and entering a gap in some mountains that are in the way. There is also a railroad line coming from the east and going west passing though the same gap for the same reason and they run parallel to each other as that is the best way through the mountains. For the time they are both in the gap they run together and in the same direction so that a train and a car could be traveling next to each other and maybe even at the same speed through the entire gap. An observer in the mountains could say after observing both moving together and in the same direction that both were going to the same place. That observer could not know that only a few miles up the gap the road and the track would go their separate way.

We have the same situation with anthropogenic climate change where from the 1970’s until just a few years ago when both CO2, as measured by NOAA, and global temperatures, as measured by NASA seemed to be going up at a similar rate. The issue wasn’t that they were or weren’t moving together but whether it was coincidence or correlation with cause and effect. Models that are designed and built around incomplete data no matter how well indented to not work once the conditions change. During this period it is a fact that both moved together, just like the car and train, but before then and ever since, they were going their own separate ways.

Since all have to agree that a model is only as good as the forecasts it makes and therefore the current global temperature reductions which are not shown in any of the IPCC climate models means that there is something wrong or something missing. In this book we will show a different way of looking at climate that gives significantly better predictive results. This alternative model is significantly more accurate than that of the IPCC models and is therefore by definition a better model. The reason this is so is that there are many problems with the assumptions used to build the IPCC climate models which are at the heart of the anthropogenic climate change debate, and the debate is far from settled.

The balance of this book is showing how the IPCC climate assumptions are incomplete and how when those assumptions are modified that a model can be designed that actually works. This is original research based on information easily found on the web. It is the opinion of the author that this model is valid and has correctly identified the key variables.

Since this book was written I have made some revisions but the basic principles are the same.

 

The link below will allow you to download the book, if you want, and at no cost.

The Real “An Inconvenient Truth”

Freeman Dyson Discusses The Benefits Of CO2


Published on Apr 6, 2019

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Freeman Dyson is considered the world’s leading theoretical physicist. The New York Times once described him as “infinitely smart.”

In 2009 John Kerry – Arctic To Be Ice-Free By 2014


Published on Apr 15, 2019

Extinction Rebellion Turning Violent in London


In Britain, arrests were made after the London headquarters of Shell Oil was targeted by climate change protesters calling it an Extinction Rebellion (XR) with demonstrations staged across London. The messages they were yelling is that “Shell kills” which they also sprayed on to the property, while a female climate change activist glued herself to the door of the building. Of course, the sheer lack of intelligence of these people is indescribable. They do not think about their heat when it is freezing outside or lights they need to even go to school. The sheer stupidity of these people and their claims that CO2 will extinguish all life is just beyond belief. There is data on CO2 going back 8,000 years. The chart above is from NASA. If anything, it demonstrates that there has always been a cycle and we never reached new historic highs. These people are victims of propaganda and we can easily see how dangerous this can become.

800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

The real crime is how such forecasts are made that reflect the complete nonsense of the methodology. They always assume whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. This is how Thomas Malthus first alarmed the world in his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, where he observed that an increase in a nation’s food production improved the well-being of the populace, but the improvement was temporary because it led to population growth, which in turn restored the original per capita production level. His entire argument was that we should all be dead by now because we would not be able to produce enough food. What he failed to understand is that there are cycles to everything. Not merely did he fail to understand that we were coming out of a mini-ice age and production of food would increase, but the cycles in technology that brought about steam power and then the combustion engine. Both dramatically increased food production and now we have learned to grow food indoors with lights.

All of this analysis is bogus. If we apply the same methodology, then if the down rises 10% in one year it will do the same every year until it reaches 100,000. None of the analysis applied in Global Warming of Climate Change takes into account cyclical analysis. Sorry, nothing functions in this manner. Just because we are healthy today does not mean that will last forever.

If you are really that worries about CO2, plant more trees and shrubs. Perhaps they forget what they taught in science class. Plants and trees need CO2 to survive. If you really want to do something about CO2, start planting.

 

What Can We Do About Sea Level Rise?


Published on Apr 17, 20

Corruption Of The US Temperature Record


Published on Apr 10, 2019

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In this video I explain the corruption of the US temperature record by NOAA and NASA – and show that their justifications for data tampering are not scientifically valid. Blog post with links here : https://realclimatescience.com/2019/0…

Is Carbon Dioxide A Pollutant?


Published on Apr 11, 201