Tag Archives: Trade Deal

Feb 14 2026

BLS Report – January Inflation from Tariffs Non-Existent, Core Inflation Lowest Since 2021


Posted originally on CTH on February 13, 2026 | Sundance

The pundits, economists and financial media are shocked, perplexed, befuddled and flummoxed.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the January inflation data [SEE HERE] and the results are much better than they expected.

Overall inflation is 2.4% year-over-year, and there are zero indications that tariffs are having any impact on consumer prices [See Apparel].

[DATA LINK]

CORE inflation, which removes food and energy, comes in at 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest number since March 2021. This is like reliving 2018 all over again, when the pundits proclaimed with absolute certainty that Trump’s tariff approach was going to cause inflation; it never happened.

VIA ABC – Inflation cooled in January, dropping price increases to their lowest level in nine months, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The lower-than-expected reading defied fears of a tariff-induced hike in overall costs.

Prices rose 2.4% in January compared to a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index.

The data arrived days after fresh hiring figures showed stronger-than-expected job growth in January, even though an updated estimate released at the same time indicated a near-paralysis of the labor market last year. (read more)

While it is likely prices will never reset to the 2021 levels, at least right now we have wages growing faster than inflation, which essentially nulls the inflationary impact within the economy.

Feb 10 2026

President Trump Threatens Blockade of Almost Completed Michigan-Ontario Bridge


Posted originally on CTH on February 9, 2026 | Sundance 

Writing on a Truth Social post earlier this evening, President Trump is threatening to block the U.S. side of a new bridge that links Detroit, Michigan to Ontario, Canada:

(Truth Social) – “As everyone knows, the Country of Canada has treated the United States very unfairly for decades. Now, things are turning around for the U.S.A., and FAST! But imagine, Canada is building a massive bridge between Ontario and Michigan. They own both the Canada and the United States side and, of course, built it with virtually no U.S. content. President Barack Hussein Obama stupidly gave them a waiver so they could get around the BUY AMERICAN Act, and not use any American products, including our Steel.

Now, the Canadian Government expects me, as President of the United States, to PERMIT them to just “take advantage of America!” What does the United States of America get — Absolutely NOTHING! Ontario won’t even put U.S. spirits, beverages, and other alcoholic products, on their shelves, they are absolutely prohibited from doing so and now, on top of everything else, Prime Minister Carney wants to make a deal with China — which will eat Canada alive. We’ll just get the leftovers! I don’t think so.

The first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup. The Tariffs Canada charges us for our Dairy products have, for many years, been unacceptable, putting our Farmers at great financial risk. I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve. We will start negotiations, IMMEDIATELY. With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset. The revenues generated because of the U.S. Market will be astronomical. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ~PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

The USMCA renegotiation plan likely plays a big part in this announcement.  Don’t react, just watch.

Feb 9 2026

Sunday Talks – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Discusses Trump Economic Plan and Growth Forecast


Posted originally on CTH on February 8, 2026 | Sundance

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Fox News to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy as contrast against current growth plans and economic policy.  As noted by Bessent, the future of the Main Street economy generally lags behind the forecast of the Wall Street economy.  All of the domestic investment is currently building out the capacities of the underlying economy to expand.

Additionally, Bessent notes the importance of the cumulative effect of strategic energy policy, the assembly of a critical mineral reserve and the mounting growth in the industrial manufacturing center.  MAGAnomics is creating expanded domestic growth by reshoring many of the industrial jobs due to tariff policy.  Overall, the interview gives a big picture perspective on the short- and long-term economic program. WATCH:

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Feb 9 2026

Massive Win for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi with Voters Giving Her Party a Big Majority


Posted originally on CTH on February 8, 2026 | Sundance

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took a calculated risk only three months after her October 2025 election victory when she dissolved the Japanese Parliament and called for a snap election. The high-stakes gamble paid off, with Japanese voters handing her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a big super-majority Sunday.

Takaichi said in a January press conference, calling for the snap election was a “profoundly weighty decision,” adding that “by doing so, I am also putting my position as prime minister on the line.”

The voters responded with great enthusiasm for her leadership.  Sanae Takaichi was also a protege’ of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a close personal friend of President Donald Trump.

President Trump who heartedly endorsed Takaichi also celebrated the outcome on Truth Social: “Congratulations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Coalition on a LANDSLIDE Victory in today’s very important Vote. She is a highly respected and very popular Leader. Sanae’s bold and wise decision to call for an Election paid off big time. Her Party now runs the Legislature, holding a HISTORIC TWO THIRDS SUPERMAJORITY — The first time since World War Il. Sanae: It was my Honor to Endorse you and your Coalition. I wish you Great Success in passing your Conservative, Peace Through Strength Agenda. The wonderful people of Japan, who voted with such enthusiasm, will always have my strong support.”

Yahoo: […] After an election framed as a referendum on Takaichi herself, the LDP party won more than 310 of the 465 seats in Japan’s lower house, marking the first time since World War II that a single party has secured a two-thirds majority. The broader ruling coalition won more than 340 seats.

In an interview with NHK, Takaichi thanked the voters who “braved the cold and walked through the snowy roads to cast their votes.”

“I wanted the voters to give me a mandate because I advocated for responsible, proactive fiscal policy that would significantly shift economic and fiscal policy,” she added.

The hardline conservative, who enjoys US President Donald Trump’s endorsement, has seen high approval ratings since she was elected less than four months ago, making history as the first woman to lead Japan.  She has won over the public with her strong work ethic, savvy social media game and charisma. (more)

Mrs Takaichi, like Shinzo Abe, is a strong Japanese conservative with a deep nationalist perspective.  This Japanese election outcome is the opposite of what China would like to see happen in the region.

Writing on X Sunday, Takaichi thanked President Trump for his endorsement earlier this month and said the potential of the US-Japan alliance was “LIMITLESS.”

From a North American perspective, the alignment of Takaichi and Trump will provide further bolstering to the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA, as Japan will not want to be on the wrong side of the new bilateral agreements likely to happen as an outcome.  Japan will be cautious with any investment positioning in Canada.

Feb 6 2026

Peter Navarro Warns Congress Seeking to Reinstall de Minimis Tarriff Loophole


Posted originally on CTH on February 5, 2026 | Sundance 

White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor, Peter Navarro, has written an op-ed warning about a new bill under construction in congress [BILL HERE] that seeks to stop President Trump from blocking the ‘de minimis loophole’ on imported goods.

Previously, various shippers and transport companies like UPS and Fed-X had lobbied congress to retain a loophole on customs and duties allowing items valued less than $800 to enter the USA without tariffs.  They were joined by ecommerce outlets like Amazon, Alibaba, Temu and Shein to keep cheap foreign goods flowing into the U.S. without passing through customs declarations.

President Trump stopped the de minimis loophole on China and Hong Kong and then globally.

As noted by Navarro, “the threshold for the exemption hit a staggering $800 per package — by far the highest in the world. Europe’s is closer to $150. Japan’s is under $70. China’s general threshold is in the single digits. The U.S. wasn’t “aligned with global norms.” We were the outlier, and a very expensive one.”

Now, Navarro is warning that congress is seeking to subvert the Trump position on imports and go back to allowing cheap foreign goods flood the U.S. market at a level that creates chaos in customs enforcement and facilitates the flow of illegal drugs and narcotics back through the system.

(The Hill) – […]   Their bill is simultaneously a poster child for big money politics and a breathtaking insult to the public’s intelligence. It assumes voters won’t read past the title, won’t remember why de minimis was killed in the first place, and won’t connect the dots between lobbying disclosures, campaign checks, and a legislative resurrection of a loophole that nearly destroyed U.S. trade enforcement. 

[…] So when Congress suddenly produces a bill that effectively recreates de minimis under a new name, nobody should pretend it came out of nowhere. This is what sustained pressure looks like. 

Which brings us to the bill itself. The deception starts with the title. To call this the “Secure Revenue Clearance Channel Act” is like calling a casino a “retirement plan.”

The title promises security and revenue, but the text does the opposite. It creates a $600 express-lane carveout that lets express carriers move low-value shipments through a special channel using only manifest data. Instead of paying the tariffs required by law, importers can elect a substitute fee imposed in lieu of normal duties — including tariffs Congress enacted to protect national security.

That’s not enforcement. That’s Deep Swamp chicanery designed to look technical, sound boring, and slide through committee before anyone notices the damage.

Americans are noticing. So, stop it. (more)

Jan 31 2026

Trade Watch – President Trump Has Conversation with President Sheinbaum About Upcoming USMCA Review


Posted originally on CTH on January 30, 2026 | Sundance January 30, 2026 | Sundance 

President Trump speaks to President Sheinbaum about upcoming USMCA renegotiation, while Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard meets simultaneously in Washington with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the upcoming trade review.

(VIA BLOOMBERG) Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had a “cordial” conversation with Donald Trump on Thursday, discussing trade and security issues ahead of the review of the North American free trade deal.

Sheinbaum said the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will continue as planned and that she and the president discussed tariffs and non-tariff barriers in their latest call.

Mexico’s leader added that Trump invited her to the US but that no date has been set for what would be their second in-person meeting.

On security, Sheinbaum offered that both leaders are pleased with the level of cooperation so far between their two countries. Trump agrees “that we are making progress in the general understanding we have,” she told reporters at her regular daily media briefing, without offering more details.

Sheinbaum first revealed the latest phone call with Trump in a social media post. (read more)

We all know what is likely to happen, these small articles are like aperitifs while we await the main performance.   Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of Canadians -sans possibly Alberta residents- are clueless.

Jan 29 2026

Giddy Up – USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard Begin Formal Trade Negotiations


Posted originally on CTH on January 28, 2026 | Sundance 

Here we go.  If you’ve been under the Treehouse branches for more than a few months, it is now officially time to pull up a rock take a front row seat and enjoy the show.  Don’t draw attention to yourself; however, please do bring your favorite beverage, relax and watch what no one else will admit is happening.  The 2026 operation to exit the USMCA is officially underway.

While the Snow Mexicans are gnashing their teeth talking about feelings and various shiny things, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is meeting today with Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard to strategize the best approach for a U.S-Mexican bilateral free trade agreement.

Please remember, in order to fully appreciate the moment, we must allow all negotiation pretenses to remain in place, giving the illusion of something that will no longer be present when the end goal is reached.

Jan 28 (Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard agreed during a meeting on Wednesday to begin formal discussions on possible reforms to the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Greer’s office said.

Possible reforms include stronger rules of origin for key industrial goods, more collaboration on critical minerals, increasing efforts to defend workers and producers, and efforts to combat dumping of manufactured goods, the USTR’s office said in a statement. (LINK)

As we noted at the end of last year, splitting the USMCA into two bilateral trade deals, one for Mexico and one for Canada, will be one of the most interesting and long-term economically significant moves in U.S. trade history.  It is going to be a lot of fun to watch these negotiations, and the pre-positioning gives us a preview of what is to come.

Mexico is doing everything almost perfectly in preparation for their bilateral deal.  Canada is doing exactly the opposite and positioning themselves for the worst possible outcome of a deal with the USA.  The disparity in approaches is so different, even now it is remarkable to watch.

President Trump is establishing an entirely new economic, trade and finance system. The era of the Marshal Plan is over; it has been factually deconstructed in the past 12 months.

Canadians and Europeans are desperately trying to offset the ramifications, hold on to their economic benefits and find a new mechanism to afford the domestic indulgences now eliminated by President Trump.

Needing alternatives for their economies, the EU and Canada are looking to India and China respectively as a financial offset.  Meanwhile, so far, Mexico is playing it smarter….

Jan 28 2026

President Trump Interview with Will Cain in Iowa – Full Video


Posted originally on CTH on January 27, 2026 | Sundance 

President Trump appears with Will Cain live for an interview from Iowa. Topics include: the upcoming midterm elections, the state of the economy, the deadly shooting deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, ICE deportations, removals and more.  WATCH:

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Jan 28 2026

Big Picture: President Trump and Trade Using the Art of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy


Posted originally on CTH on January 27, 2026 | Sundance

People might be interested in the recent stories of Canadian Premier Doug Ford and his reversal of position on Chinese EV production. Ontario Premier Ford now welcomes Chinese EVs into Canada.

Or people might be interested in the recent story of the EU announcing a historic trade deal with India. The European Union is now looking to find new markets to replace the U.S., while simultaneously agreeing to establish a new immigration/recruitment process to accept massive numbers of Indian migrants.

Yes, Canada reverses their position on trade with China, that’s odd. And somehow the EU immediately forgets their demands for India to stop buying Russian oil or face EU sanctions, another oddity.  This is like watching someone you don’t like, get engaged to your smelly, fat ex-girlfriend. [Matthew 15:14]

Canada and the EU take trade and economic positions seemingly against U.S. interests. Simultaneously Mexico modifies all their trade positions to come into alignment with the USA. Yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico will no longer ship oil to Cuba.

What’s going on?

Well, to really understand what is happening you need to look at President Trump’s responses to all of the individual issues outlined above and take a much bigger picture view.  President Trump is the master of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy.’

♦ CANADA – When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn’t care – it was irrelevant to him.  Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation.

So, why didn’t President Trump care?  Easy, because in President Trump’s mind there’s not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn’t care if Canada runs to violate it.  In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA.

If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier.  Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.  If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference.

Provoking Canada into a trade position, that puts them at a disadvantage trying to stop the dissolution of the CUSMA, stops Congress from opposing the fracture, and then opens the door to a bilateral trade agreement, is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is entirely controlled by President Donald Trump.

[I pointed this out on the ‘Russian Sanctions’ map four years ago for a reason.] 

♦ EUROPE – In the last few months, the EU has been pressuring President Trump to join them in putting sanctions against India for purchasing Russian oil.  Suddenly, all those Russian energy issues are dropped, and the EU signs a trade agreement with India.  Again, just like with Canada, President Trump doesn’t care; he’s working on a much bigger objective.

Both Canada and Europe are independently, out of necessity, taking action that takes apart the trade and economic system they created.  At the core of the old trade system both Canada and Europe were exploiting the USA, exfiltrating wealth and skimming the independent entrepreneurial innovation that originates from within the U.S. economic system.

That necessary exploitation happened because the USA is innovative (freedom-based capitalism), while the CA/EU system is built on government control mechanisms.  The CA/EU energy policy is just one impactful example of their pontificating inability to be insightful when it comes to consequences.  The EU and Canada are now stuck looking for markets that will do the dirty jobs, provide them with core components, while simultaneously looking for markets for their finished products.

On the other side of the approach is President Trump, working to expand U.S. industrial dirty job capacity, create our own core components, then create finished goods entirely on our own.  A complete revitalization of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base.  Our U.S. GDP is currently expected to grow north of 5%.  This is not happening by accident.

Additionally, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is not bragging about importing Indian IT workers in a vacuum.  If the EU cannot skim off the IT capabilities of America, they have to find another Braintrust to tap.  Just like the innovative dependencies of China, the EU is intellectually frigid; compliance is ingrained in their academia.  Within the USA, we still have foundational disposition of ‘screw you‘ in our DNA.

Look at the advancements of Artificial Intelligence, or AI. All of the growth in that tech sector is being led by America. President Trump is taking every approach to ensure we remain the world’s dominant power in AI development. As much as Elon Musk’s quirks and quasi-friendly politics annoys me personally, strategically, on the technology side, it’s good to see him chumming around with President Trump; at least that’s what I tell myself.

♦ MEXICO – This is where it gets really, super interesting.  You might remember that China was set to invest between $5 billion and $10 billion (total) in Mexico for EV auto manufacturing.  In December of 2023, three Chinese auto manufacturers, MG, BYD, and Chery, announced they were going to spend billions building new EV manufacturing plants.  Each Chinese manufacturer was initially going to spend between $1.5 to $2.0 billion.  By March 2024, the reasoning was evident – Biden was supporting it.

When President Trump won the November 2024 election, all of those Chinese investments and plans inside Mexico were cancelled.

As we noted at the end of last year, splitting the USMCA into two bilateral trade deals, one for Mexico and one for Canada, will be one of the most interesting and long-term economically significant moves in U.S. trade history.  It is going to be a lot of fun to watch these negotiations, and the pre-positioning gives us a preview of what is to come.  Mexico is doing everything almost perfectly in preparation for their bilateral deal, including their stopping of oil shipments to Cuba.

This alignment follows the Mexican government passing a sweeping set of tariffs against Chinese imports. The Mexican government, led by Sheinbaum, made moves throughout 2025 to stay in alignment with a favorable U.S. trade agreement.  Meanwhile, the Canadian government, led by Mark Carney, has been more antagonistic and positioning Canada to lose badly.

♦ SUMMARY: Some people have construed the bilateral trade preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements. While the outcome of Trump’s approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.

Canada can embrace China, and Europe can embrace India; in the bigger picture it really doesn’t matter.  These relationships only create dependencies which are the natural outcome of globalism.  From President Trump’s position, what really matters is what happens within our borders and how the United States economy is positioned.  This is President Trump’s singular focus.

Do you remember President Trump leaving the 2025 G7 meeting in Canada early? The final day invitation list brought Australia, Mexico, Ukraine, South Korea, South Africa, India, the United Nations and the World Bank into the G7.  President Donald Trump smartly exited the G7 assembly a day early, he departed before that crowd of interests arrived.  The world leaders came because the process to keep USA wealth inside the USA is against their interests.  That’s why they came, and that’s why President Trump left.

Globalism, in its economic construct, is a series of dependencies. However, the opposite is also true. If nations are not dependent, they are sovereign – able to exist without the need for support from other nations and systems. If nations are sovereign, then globalism is no longer needed. If each nation of the world is operating according to its individual best interests, the position of Donald Trump, then what happens to the governing elite who set up the system of interdependencies?

“G7”?

Jan 28 2026

Ontario Premier Doug Ford Appears in Awkward Presser – We Love Chinese EVs Now


Posted originally on CTH on January 27, 2026 | Sundance

Ontario Premier Doug Ford went for a pizza with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Following the meeting Doug Ford appears on camera for a debrief to explain how he has reversed his opposition to Chinese EV imports.  The presser looks like a hostage video (prompted):

USMCA Article 32.10 – Non-Market Country FTA (key provisions):

“A Party intending to negotiate a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall inform the other Parties at least three months prior to commencing negotiations and, upon request, provide information regarding the objectives of those negotiations.

A Party that enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall provide the other Parties with the full text of the agreement prior to signing.

If a Party enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country, the other Parties may terminate this Agreement on six months’ notice and replace it with a bilateral agreement.” [SOURCE]