Posted originally on Jan 8, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
China became Venezuela’s largest oil purchaser through oil-for-debt deals. Socialism failed, and the nation was desperate for funds, especially after being ostracized from Western trade. Beijing supplied Venezuela with credit in exchange for heavily discounted crude. China’s access to cheap oil from Venezuela came to a sudden halt after the US takeover.
China was purchasing around 778,000 barrels a day before Maduro’s capture. Venezuela had borrowed up to $100 billion from China in loans since 2007, using PDVSA crude sales to ChinaOil as collateral. Venezuela agreed to ship fixed volumes of crude to Chinese buyers through small “teapot” refineries. While the average output was 778,000 bpd DAILY, exports reached 952,000 bpd at the end of 2025. These flows accounted for 4% of China’s total oil imports.
China is now looking to Iran and Russia for crude, furthering the disconnect between the East and West. Cargoes secured in Asian waters can cover two and a half months of China’s demand, easing any immediate shocks. Yet, Venezuela still owes China around $19 billion in outstanding debt that was largely secured by long-term crude imports.
China is enraged. Foreign Ministry spokespeople Mao Ning and Lin Jian demanded Venezuela retain “full and permanent sovereignty” over its natural resources and accused the US of “seriously breaching” international law. China’s “legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected,” according to state media. China’s United Nations representative reiterated this statement, demanding that the US “cease its bullying and coercive practices.”
🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪🇷🇺 U.S. TRIES TO SEIZE VENEZUELAN OIL TANKER, SO RUSSIA RESPONDS WITH A SUBMARINE
You thought this was just about oil? It’s now a full-on naval showdown.
The U.S. is actively trying to seize the Marinera, a Russian-flagged tanker (formerly Bella 1) carrying sanctioned… pic.twitter.com/5BNUO9qtmx
Russia stepped in to protect China’s short-term investments using a military submarine to protect an oil carrier from US forces. However, US forces successfully boarded and seized the cargo ship. There was no direct conflict between Russia and the US, but “direct” is key as Russia is showing its willingness to oppose Western influence.
PURE INSANITY
Mark Carney claims Venezuelan Oil is Welcome ZERO risk to Canada 🇨🇦
WHY?
Canada offers DECARBONIZED oil. That makes our Product 10X more competitive.
Canada’s Carney chimed in to offer clean Canadian oil as an alternative. No one cares if the oil is clean; everyone wants the best deal.
Rest assured China will ensure it is repaid. Yet, the Trump Administration may not permit repayment in crude. The situation is unfolding and tensions are rapidly rising. The international community is split on America’s actions, with even America’s European allies condemning the move. Europe is now painting Trump with the same brush as Putin by insisting he will continue nation-building and expanding the great American Empire. The models pointed to geopolitical upheaval during the first week of January as we move toward the pinnacle of the panic cycle set to explode in 2026.
Posted originally on CTH on Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth deliver remarks to the media following a briefing of Senators on the ongoing Venezuela operations.
As noted by Secretary Rubio, the U.S. is now in control of all Venezuela oil production and distribution. WATCH:
Further to Rubio’s remarks: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the United States will sell Venezuelan oil “indefinitely” after completing sales of the crude currently accumulating in storage there.
Wright said the proceeds from those sales would be “deposited into accounts controlled by the U.S. government” and then “flow back into Venezuela to benefit the Venezuelan people.”
“Instead of the oil being blockaded, as it is right now, we’re gonna let the oil flow … to United States refineries and around the world to bring better oil supplies, but have those sales done by the U.S. government,” he said at Goldman Sachs’ Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference.
“We’re going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela, first this backed-up stored oil, and then indefinitely, going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace,” Wright added. (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on January 6, 2026 | Sundance
This is way beyond winning, this is stunningly brilliant strategy. Not only has President Trump successfully apprehended Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro, but the remaining interim government officials have acquiesced to fund a civil restitution plan to pay for their malfeasance.
The government that stole from its people is being forced to pay restitution for their own fraud, abuse and misconduct.
As we noted yesterday the immediate issue for Venezuela would be to fill the economic/financial void.
The Sea Island attendees support a quick Machado installation. Trump/Rubio prefer to proceed with more caution, especially because someone is going to be on the hook for financial support to Venezuela, because the domestic rewards from any expanded oil revenue are at least 5 to 10 years away.
Changing the regime in Venezuela may break China’s ‘belt and road’ grip, but China’s money is going to need to be replaced with independent domestic economic wealth for the Venezuelan people. That process takes time. [link]
Some type of short-term funding is needed during any kind of reconstruction of govt. Typically, the U.S. taxpayer would be on the hook during this phase; however, President Trump has found a way for the corrupt Venezuelan authorities to pay for their own civic shift back to democracy. Brilliant.
The 30 to 50 million barrels of oil is approximately a $2 billion self-created reconstruction effort.
Compare and contrast this approach with the trillions of U.S. taxpayer funds that were used in the failed efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etcetera…. or even Kuwait, albeit the Kuwaiti’s offered, but prior U.S. leadership chose influence over restitution.
In this example, almost immediately the funds now in the control of President Trump can be deployed to the greater benefit of the Venezuelan people.
Another way to look at this is like a type of ‘sovereign wealth fund’ created by the corrupt Venezuelan officials, using the resources that belong to the Venezuelan people, to support the interim needs of the same citizens they victimized.
The people of Venezuela are celebrating Maduro’s departure. Those who have lived under socialism understand the depths of its destruction. Hugo Chávez is celebrated as a social justice warrior for eliminating capitalism in the 2000s. Socialism does not work because the system eventually runs out of other people’s money, as Margaret Thatcher once proclaimed. We only need to look at recent history to see the severe consequences of switching to this system. Venezuela first reported that it had a “nutritional emergency” in February 2016. President Nicolás Maduro also declared an “economic emergency” in January of the same year, providing him the power to rule by decree. Inflation was running at 141.5%, according to Venezuelan authorities, but the IMF believed the figure reached 270% in 2015 and had the potential to reach 500% by the end of 2016.
There were rumors going around that people under socialism faced such severe food shortages that they were forced to break into zoos and eat the animals. Unfortunately, this is a fact. Reports were circulating in Venezuela of people consuming zoo animals around 2016 and 2017. The animals that remained in these zoos starved to death or ate one another. The people were in such dire conditions that they were forced to consume dogs, cats, decaying meat, and anything else they could find.
The socialists claimed that acknowledging the food shortages could lead to American intervention, and Maduro consistently blamed US sanctions for his nation’s failure. As reported by a Spanish newspaper, this is how the average person waiting for their food rations: “Five hours in line to buy a chicken; kicks, pushes, and blows of all kinds to be one of the fortunate ones to enter the supermarket and get away with a bag of flour or rice, basic goods that Venezuela does not have available to everyone, unfortunately.”
Maduro told the people to grow their own food and gloated that he, too, was producing his own eggs and produce. The government owned the grocers and food production companies and intervened numerous times to prevent private-sector intervention. Politicians take no responsibility for the suffering caused by their policies, and this is precisely what a portion of the West is seeking to implement today.
Over 7.7 million people have fled Venezuela due to one of the worst economic collapses in modern history not attributed to war. GDP contracted 80% from 2013, according to the IMF. Inflation reached an astounding 130,060% by 2018, the bolivar collapsed, prices doubled daily, and people were forced to carry carts of worthless cash for basic purchases. Around 30% of the population lived in poverty in 2013. Fast forward to 2025, roughly 87% to 90% of the population lives in extreme poverty and despair.
People wonder why Venezuelans are cheering Maduro’s downfall from the safety of their first-world suburbs. Older generations remember a time when Venezuela was a thriving economic powerhouse before it rapidly fell under socialism. Oil was insufficient to sustain a system that rendered innovation and productivity worthless.
Now, Venezuela’s problems did not begin with Maduro. Maduro inherited a flawed socialist system and continued its mismanagement. Under Chávez, Venezuela was already in decline, but Maduro assumed power precisely as the country entered a major ECM down wave. Instead of reforming, he doubled down on the same policies that were already destroying confidence and refused to take ownership in typical bureaucratic fashion. The destruction was locked in long before sanctions became meaningful because the government destroyed confidence, property rights, and capital formation. Socialism wages war on capital, and capital is a pacifist that will willingly flee. Once you nationalize industry, confiscate private property, impose price controls, and criminalize profit, capital will flee and not return. Every war waged against capital results in a lost battle for the aggressor as it cannot be captured and the business cycle cannot be defeated.
Posted originally on CTH on January 6, 2026 | Sundance
President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have noted that following the ouster of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, the remaining government is being pressured to realign their positions and accept a change in direction. It is always tenuous when the leader of a hostile foreign government is removed.
The current approach by the Trump administration is to permit former Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez to continue operating the mechanisms within the country to retain near-term stability.The CIA assessedDelcy Rodriquez was the interim ruler who could keep order.
Prior to the removal of Maduro, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, was asked by the Trump administration to provide a detailed summary of how she could form a functioning government, should she be assisted to power.
Machado’s response did not provide confidence that her strategy was comprehensive enough. Therefore, the Trump administration assessed the best interim approach would be to continue working with the remaining Maduro government officials, led by Delcy Rodriquez, while pressuring them to follow the instructions of the United States.
Various geopolitical powers, including many that attend Mar-a-Lago functions, want Maria Corina Machado installed quickly. President Trump and Secretary Rubio are being more measured in their approach. The powers that want Machado installed are now working on a media strategy. Sean Hannity is enlisted for the assist.
The issue is one of competency and chaos. President Trump and Secretary Rubio do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past (Bush/Powell, Iraq or Obama/Clinton, Libya). The Venezuela issue is entirely different from the Middle East, but the same type of chaos can reemerge if the transition from authoritarianism to representative democracy is not well managed.
The Sea Island attendees support a quick Machado installation. Trump/Rubio prefer to proceed with more caution, especially because someone is going to be on the hook for financial support to Venezuela, because the domestic rewards from any expanded oil revenue are at least 5 to 10 years away.
Changing the regime in Venezuela may break China’s ‘belt and road’ grip, but China’s money is going to need to be replaced with independent domestic economic wealth for the Venezuelan people. That process takes time.
Maria Corina Machado is supported by all the same networks who support Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Despite the twinkles in the eyes of senators within the Foreign Relations Committee, we don’t want Venezuela to become North America’s largest Somali daycare operation.
(WSJ) – […] Latin America analysts have previously cautioned, including during Trump’s first term, that Maduro’s ouster without a capable replacement would likely empower armed military factions, rival politicians and criminal groups within Venezuela as they fought for control, leading to a security crisis in the country.
[…] analysis by the Central Intelligence Agency was briefed to President Trump and shared with a small circle of senior administration officials, according to two of the people. It was a factor in Trump’s decision to back Maduro’s vice president instead of opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, some of the people said.
The assessment provides insight into Trump’s decision not to support the opposition’s bid for control of Venezuela following the brazen U.S. military operation to capture Maduro last week and bring him to the U.S. for trial. As in his first term, Trump was convinced that near-term stability in Venezuela could be maintained only if Maduro’s replacement had the support of the country’s armed forces and other elites.
Senior Trump administration officials commissioned the CIA to undertake the analytical assessment and debated it during discussions about day-after plans for Venezuela, the people said. The people familiar with the assessment said they were unsure of the precise date it was produced.
The report was briefed to Trump in recent weeks, according to two of the people.
The assessment didn’t describe how Maduro could lose power, or advocate for removing him, but attempted to gauge the domestic situation in Venezuela in the event that he did, people familiar with it said.
The intelligence report, the people said, cited Rodríguez and two other top Venezuelan regime figures as possible interim rulers who could keep order. The people familiar with the assessment didn’t identify the other two officials, but besides Rodríguez, the two most influential power brokers are Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
The two hard-liners, who command Venezuela’s police and military, could undo any efforts at a transition, according to former U.S. and Venezuelan officials. Both face U.S. criminal charges similar to those filed against Maduro and are unlikely to cooperate with Washington.
The report concluded that Edmundo González, widely seen as the actual winner of the 2024 election against Maduro, and Machado would struggle to gain legitimacy as leaders while facing resistance from pro-regime security services, drug-trafficking networks and political opponents. (more)
Posted originally on CTH on January 6, 2026 | Sundance
White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller appears on CNN to respond to Jake Tapper’s concerns about America being successful in the operation to capture Venezuelan Dictator Nicolas Maduro.
Tapper’s furrowed brow deepens with each of Miller’s statements which outline the current status. Mr. Miller explains how the acting Venezuelan government has acquiesced to the demands of President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Tapper has difficulty accepting that a new strategic and targeted approach by the Trump administration could have such success. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on January 5, 2026 | Sundance
According to the latest news from the government of Cuba, two days of official mourning have been declared as they announce 32 members of the Cuban military and Intelligence services were killed in Venezuela while protecting Nicolas Maduro. There were no American fatalities.
REUTERS – HAVANA, Jan 4 (Reuters) – The Cuban government said on Sunday that 32 of its citizens were killed during the U.S. raid on Venezuela to extract President Nicolas Maduro for prosecution in the United States.
Havana said there would be two days of mourning on January 5 and 6 in honor of those killed and said funeral arrangements would be announced.
The Cuban government statement gave few details but said all the dead were members of the Cuban armed forces and intelligence agencies.
“True to their responsibilities concerning security and defense, our compatriots fulfilled their duty with dignity and heroism and fell, after fierce resistance, in direct combat against the attackers or as a result of bombings on the facilities,” the statement said. (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on January 4, 2026 | Sundance
Many on the political left, and even a few on the political right, are having fits about President Trump authorizing the operation to capture Venezuela president and narcotrafficker Nicolas Maduro without any congressional notification.
Several House members attempted to frame the issue as Trump acting as a dictator. A few called attention to the lack of the Gang of Eight being notified, and even some Republican senators on the Senate Armed Services Committee were concerned with the military deployment without advance notice.
If a covert intelligence operation was deployed, the President would sign a “finding memo” generally notifying the Gang of Eight, but that doesn’t apply in this instance.
President Trump remarked a concern with leaks was an element, saying that Congress has “a tendency to leak,” which he said could have produced “a very different result.” However, Secretary Marco Rubio was purposefully clear in his statement about the operation.
“This is not the kind of mission that you can do congressional notification on. It was a trigger-based mission in which conditions had to be met night after night,” Rubio said later at a Mar-a-Lago news conference. “Remember, at the end of day, at its core, this was an arrest of two indicted fugitives of American justice, and the Department of War supported the Department of Justice in that job. Now there are broader policy implications here, but it’s just not the kind of mission that you can pre-notify because it endangers the mission,” he said.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton affirmed after discussion with Rubio, “congress doesn’t need to be notified ever time the executive branch is making an arrest. And that’s exactly what happened this morning in Venezuela, and now Maduro is going to come to the United States, and he’s going to face justice.”
This is an important distinction. The DEA and DOJ carried out an arrest of an indicted drug trafficker.
This was, as Rubio noted, a law enforcement operation to capture fugitives. The military component was in support of that operation, nothing more. The DOJ had the lead; the DEA was the enforcement mechanism, and the military were in tactical support.
Pertaining to the “broader policy implications” noted by Rubio, there are many facets. As accurately noted by Cynical Publius:
“Under Maduro, Venezuela had become the Latin American crossroads for all of the USA’s principal enemies. Maduro was nurturing relationships with Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. Worst of all, Venezuela was eagerly becoming a part of Red China’s Belt & Road initiative.
As America’s enemies were lining up Venezuela as their base of operations in the Western Hemisphere to cause mischief and destruction for the USA, Maduro was at the same time making Venezuela a crossroads, safe haven and enabler for all manner of narcoterrorist operations, ranging from Colombia’s FARC to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel.
On top of all that, Venezuela had become a key player in the illegal alien invasion of the USA, shipping its very worst to the USA in a deliberate and comprehensive destabilizing operation that might have worked had Donald Trump not won in 2024.
[…] So was Maduro seized because of some five-year-old drug charges? Yes. Legally–yes. However, like so many strategic issues in the world today, an action needed to be backed by the fine points of law, and it was. But the reality is that the Maduro takedown was a Monroe Doctrine-driven necessity that has greatly enhanced the power and national security of the USA. (read more)
However, beyond the geopolitical issue that relates to all the above, there is another consideration that might help explain the immediate and alarmed reaction of Mexico.
With President Trump now forcefully executing exfiltration of narcotic drug traffickers, the ramifications for Mexico and the Cartels who own/operate the Mexican government take on a new context.
If the U.S. will raid Venezuela, will the U.S. now conduct a similar approach closer to home?
OFFICIAL STATEMENT: Mexico condemns military intervention in Venezuela – The Government of Mexico strongly condemns and rejects the military actions carried out unilaterally in recent hours by armed forces of the United States of America against targets in the territory of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in clear violation of Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations (UN).
Based on its foreign policy principles and its pacifist vocation, Mexico makes an urgent call to respect international law, as well as the principles and purposes of the UN Charter, and to cease any act of aggression against the Venezuelan government and people.
Latin America and the Caribbean is a zone of peace, built on the basis of mutual respect, the peaceful settlement of disputes and the prohibition of the use and threat of force, so that any military action puts regional stability at serious risk.
Mexico emphatically reiterates that dialogue and negotiation are the only legitimate and effective ways to resolve existing differences and therefore reaffirms its readiness to support any effort to facilitate dialogue, mediation or accompaniment that would help to preserve regional peace and avoid confrontation.
It also urges the United Nations to act immediately to contribute to the de-escalation of tensions, facilitate dialogue and create conditions that allow for a peaceful, sustainable solution in accordance with international law. (link)
Reconsider these words from Rubio, against the backdrop of what Mexico is known for. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on January 4, 2026 | Sundance |
Captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his arrested wife, Cilia Flores, landed at Stewart Air Force Base in Newburgh, New York late Saturday afternoon.
The couple have been charged with narcoterrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses. [INDICTMENT HERE] Maduro and Flores are likely to be held at the Metropolitan Detention Center, a federal facility in Brooklyn, to be housed after being processed by the DEA.
DEA officers escorted Maduro for his customary perp walk through the airport as video and photographs were taken.
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(VIA AP) – […] The middle-of-the-night seizure of Maduro and his wife, who were transported on a U.S. warship and arrived in New York on Saturday evening to face narcoterrorism conspiracy charges, is beyond even the most high-profile historical examples of aggressive American actions toward autocratic governments in Panama, Iraq, and beyond, legal experts said. It came after a surprise U.S. incursion into the Venezuelan capital, rocked with overnight explosions.
The Trump administration described the operation — and earlier deadly strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea — as necessary to stem the flow of dangerous drugs.
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