Posted originally on May 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Over 171 million Indians have escaped extreme poverty in the past decade, according to the World Bank’s Poverty & Equity Brief. While the West cannibalizes its future through debt and Marxist policies, India represents a rising pillar of economic power in the post-Western age. India has seen a real uptick in recent years under Modi’s government as he has profited from Western wars and geopolitical conflict. Additionally, the BRICS alliance has aided India in rising through the ranks to become an economic powerhouse.

Extreme poverty fell from 16.2% to 2.3% in the past decade. The standard for “extreme poverty” is living on less than $2.15 daily. Lower-middle-income poverty, those living on $3.65 daily, saw a notable decrease from 61.8% to 28.1%, aiding 378 people in escaping extreme poverty.

Despite the elimination of the cast system in the 1950s, the nation was largely composed of the “haves” and “haves nots.” There is still a drastic difference in wealth across the nation, but conditions are improving overall. Poverty in rural areas fell from 18.4% to 2.8% in the past decade. Poverty in urban areas declined from 10.7% to 1.1%. The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) fell from 53.8% to 16.4% from 2005-06 to 2019-21. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh accounted for two-thirds of reduction in extreme poverty, and yet, these states still host half of those multidimensionally and extremely poor.

Similar to China, India has demographic strength and no issues with declining birth rates. Internal demand is also supporting economic growth. India has benefitted from increased job outsourcing rates. In the geopolitical playing field, India has taken much manufacturing from China and is benefiting from global capital reallocation.

Yet, no nation is immune to cyclical trends, and India will not escape the downturn on the horizon. India’s sovereign debt is expected to reach 80-83% of GDP by March 2026, or roughly $2.14 trillion. India is embarking on a war with Pakistan, which will bring its own troubles. As I have warned, 2026 will be a Panic Cycle year in the region. War will sweep the world as a contagion, and it is not likely to end before 2033.