US GDP Stagnant – Q1 2025


Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

STAGFLATION

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for US GDP in Q1, a 0.3% decline annually.

The decline was mainly due to a sharp 41% uptick in imports as they are subtracted when calculating the final GDP figure. Pharmaceutical goods, medicines and vitamins, computers and parts drove imports in the first quarter.

Government spending decreased significantly as well by 1.4%, with federal expenditures down 5.1%. National defense spending declined by 8%, while non-defense spending decreased by 1%. State and local government spending posted its slowest growth since Q2 of 2022 at 0.8%. Government-driven spending is one of the main components of GDP calculations, but a reduction in government-driven spending in an economy should be viewed positively.

There was a notable rise in business investment at 21.9% as capital is flowing to the US. This is a noteworthy difference, following a 5.6% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. Nonresidential investment rose 9.8% in the first three months of the year, led by a 22.5% rise in equipment spending.

Consumer spending grew by 1.8%; services led spending with a 2.4% uptick, followed by goods at 0.5%. Personal savings as a percentage of income reached 4%, down from last year’s posting of 5.4%. Disposable personal income reached 2.7%.

ADP released its jobs report for April, anticipating a 62,000 uptick in private sector hirings. This should come as no surprise as thousands were laid off from their public sector positions. However, the figure is below estimates of 115,000 and sharply down from March’s 155,000 figure. “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.” The Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report is expected to show a 130,000 uptick, well beneath March’s 228,000 posting.

The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on May 13, a week after the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. March posted a core inflation rate of 2.8% on an annual basis, down from February’s 3.1% figure and the lowest noted since March 2021.

Trump’s tariff policy is not to blame for the current state of the economy. War, inflation, debt, poor government policy, and collapsing confidence predate Trump. The Fed’s policy is not to blame either as their policy is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme.

Socrates warned of a massive global shift in 2015 as the sovereign debt crisis cycle turned and public confidence began to decline. The computer identified 2020.05 (May 2020) as a major Economic Confidence Model (ECM) turning point, and needless to say, 2020 was certainly a turning point in every aspect of the global economy. The stagflation we see now began, globally, post-pandemic. Once confidence breaks, stagflation is guaranteed to follow.

Senate Effort to Block President Trump Tariff Authority Fails Despite Three Republicans In Support


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025 | Sundance

Republican senators Rand Paul, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski all voted in support of removing President Trump’s ability to impose tariffs under national security grounds.  However, the overall vote failed in the Senate 49-49.

The vote was mostly symbolic for the upper chamber as the House previously approved a rule to block any effort to restrict President Trump’s trade authority, and the White House would obviously veto any bill that might pass.  However, the vote does showcase the Republicans who are in support of multinational corporations outsourcing jobs and manufacturing.

The bill was originally created by Republican Senator Rand Paul and Democrat Senator Ron Wyden.  The intransigent neocon wing of the GOPe, those who take funds from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (aka Decepticons) also supported the bill, but given the certainty of Trump’s veto, needed to retain their masks.

WASHINGTON – […] The legislation, designed to end the national emergency Trump used to impose his now-paused “Liberation Day” tariffs, failed by a vote of 49 to 49 despite three Republicans joining all Democrats. {Full Story}

Dave Brat On Texas State Legislator: “The Swamp At The State Level Is Even More Fierce.”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 29, 2025, at 2:00 pm EST

Mike Davis: “Jim Jordan Is Carrying The Water For Big Tech.”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 29, 2025, at 2:00 pm EST

Soft-On-Crime Laws Overturned in US


Posted originally on Apr 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Retailers are fleeing California as a direct result of blue policies that have nearly permitted shoplifting. The iconic Saks Fifth Avenue store in Union Square in San Francisco announced it is shifting to an appointment-only model, which is also in place at its Napa and Palo Alto locations. Others in San Francisco, like Bloomingdale, Michael Kors, and even Walgreens, have announced plans to leave San Francisco entirely due to crime.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger raised the felony threshold from $400 to $950 in 2010 under Assembly Bill 2372. Proposition 47, effective since 2014, classified stolen goods valued under $950 as shoplifting rather than burglary or petty theft. Shoplifting during business hours is prosecuted under Penal Code § 459.5, which is not considered a felony. Law enforcement is encouraged to ignore calls of shoplifting and rarely, if ever, investigates cases of shoplifting. Retailers may hire personal security, but security guards are not permitted to confront thieves due to legal concerns. As a result, criminals routinely walk into stores, take what they’d like valued under $950, and walk out.

In January 2025, California attempted to implement new laws to target shoplifting. Prosecutors under Prop 36, which Gavin Newsom opposed, can combine the value of stolen goods taken in multiple thefts to attempt to dismiss the $950 loophole. Law enforcement officers are now permitted to arrest individuals suspected of shoplifting without needing to witness the theft firsthand. Probation charges for shoplifting have been extended from one to two years, and California has ramped up its rehabilitative programs for offenders under 25.

The National Retail Federation reported an all-time high for retail losses due to crime in 2024, with certain retailers experiencing a 90% uptick in shoplifting. Figures for 2024 have yet to be released, but in 2022, California retailers lost an astounding $8.72 billion due to theft, amounting to $285.70 per capita. California’s Organized Retail Crime Task Force recovered $13.5 million in stolen goods last year, and the state prosecuted over 14,000 theft-related cases between 2023-2024.

It is absurd that the law permits theft. Proposition 47 initially passed with 59.6% approval because people believed it would reduce incarceration rates. The state spends billions on social programs for those in need, and there is no reason that we as a society should accept crime in any manner.

Separately, Donald Trump signed another executive order this week to strengthen local police departments in light of “soft-on-crime policies” that have caused crime to spike throughout the nation. As noted by the White House:

“When local leaders demonize law enforcement and impose legal and political handcuffs that make aggressively enforcing the law impossible, crime thrives and innocent citizens and small business owners suffer.  My Administration will therefore:  establish best practices at the State and local level for cities to unleash high-impact local police forces; protect and defend law enforcement officers wrongly accused and abused by State or local officials; and surge resources to officers in need.  My Administration will work to ensure that law enforcement officers across America focus on ending crime, not pursuing harmful, illegal race- and sex-based “equity” policies.”

AG Pam Bondi will create legal resources for law enforcement officers who “unjustly incur expenses and liabilities” for enforcing the law. This also entails private sector pro bono assistance for those facing legal challenges. This order will refund the police, increasing pay and benefits for officers at a time when many cities are facing shortages. Crimes against police officers will come with enhanced sentences as well. Under Biden, for example, we saw migrants brutalize police officers on camera, only to be released back into the public.

There is one concerning clause in the new EO:

Sec. 4.  Using National Security Assets for Law and Order.  (a)  Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General and the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security and the heads of agencies as appropriate, shall increase the provision of excess military and national security assets in local jurisdictions to assist State and local law enforcement.
(b)  Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Attorney General, shall determine how military and national security assets, training, non-lethal capabilities, and personnel can most effectively be utilized to prevent crime.

Now, this is precisely what the Democrats would like to see happen. The left organizes mass protests and displays of civil unrest, which is not a theory but a proven fact. Numerous NGOs fund these “activists,” who in turn incite violence. We saw this happen with the George Floyd “protests,” where cities burned to the ground and small businesses were decimated. This led to the defunding of police agencies across the nation,n and officers have been hesitant to respond to crimes as a result. The Democrats took a knee and turned their backs to the victims, crying racism, while ignoring the basic legal code. They are master manipulators when it comes to spinning the narrative. I feared that an event of this nature could have happened when Trump was sworn into office, an event so chaotic that it would force the president to send in the National Guard.

The civil unrest cycle n the US in projected to intensify between 2025 and 2027, peaking around 2027-2028. We may very well witness an event that requires military intervention.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Suspends Arrested Judge Who Assisted Criminal Illegal Alien


Posted originally on CTH on April 29, 2025 | Sundance 

Following her arrest for assisting a criminal illegal alien attempting to avoid capture, the Wisconsin Supreme Court has suspended Judge Hannah Dugan from all judicial proceedings.

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — The Wisconsin Supreme Court suspended a judge accused of helping a man evade immigration authorities, saying Tuesday that it is in the public interest to relieve her of her duties as she faces two federal charges.

[…] In its two-page order, the state Supreme Court said it was acting on its own initiative and not responding to a request from anyone. Liberal justices control the court 4-3.

[…] She is set to appear in court for arraignment May 15.

In addition to Mastantuono, her attorneys include Paul Clement, a prominent conservative lawyer, and Steve Biskupic, a former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Wisconsin who was appointed by President George W. Bush. (read more)

BINGO – Longshoreman Union Announce Opposition to President Trump’s Tariff Program


Posted originally on CTH on April 29, 2025 | Sundance

Last week CTH noted, “interested political followers in the USA should pay close attention to how the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWA) respond to the corporate media narrative. …  Will the International Longshoremen’s Association stand with Trump, or will they drop support as the global trade reset emphasizes domestically manufactured jobs?  That will be an interesting aspect to watch because the dockworker union leadership will face massive pressure to comply with the anti-tariff narrative.”  (full article)

Yesterday, we got the answer: “The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) unequivocally condemns the recent tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed.”

[SOURCE]

All these moves are so transparently political, it almost makes you laugh.  However, that said, we are now in a better position to understand exactly how the Democrats and Deep State operatives will weaponize the supply chain along with their union orcs.

In the next phase of the anti-Trump tariff agenda, approximately 3 months from now it will begin, we will see/hear a constant drumbeat of empty shelves, missing parts and missing products.  Whether factually true, or whether the shortages are an outcome of a strategy by the ILWA to assist the shortage narrative, the overall objective will be to blame President Trump for everything from shortages of medicine to shortages of parts to fix, repair or maintain consumer products.

The process looming on the horizon is as predictable as Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg moving the stalled container cargo ships beyond the horizon so that no one was able to take pictures of the mess they created in the ports.  Factually, the last thing the global shipping conglomerates want is for nations to be self-sufficient.

Global supply chains are dependent on extreme ‘globalism’ and, well, ultimately, there are trillions at stake. Imagine the collapsed business models if nations were self-sufficient.  Heck, even a small drop in U.S. import purchases has the ripple effect of the shipping companies losing billions in revenue.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy would be well advised to assemble a proactive ‘supply chain’ group right now to game out an offset strategy to what we can predictably see coming.

April 29, 2025 | Sundance 

“Illegal Immigration Is Not a Victimless Crime”: Homan Details the Horrors He’s Seen of Open Borders


Posted originally on Rumble on Bright Bart News Network on: Apr 28, at 1:00 pm EST

Don’t Cross That Line! Tom Homan Warns Leftist Activist Judges from Interfering with Deportations


Posted originally on Rumble on Bright Bart News Network on: Apr 28, at 1:00 pm EST

Dave Walsh: This Is The Risk Of Relying On Variable Nature-Based Energy Sources


This Is The Risk Of Relying On Variable Nature-Based Energy Sources

Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 28, 2025, at 8:00 pm EST