Part Two CO2 and Water

The issue of whether global climate is natural or manmade is complex, so much so that I do not believe we have the knowledge nor computer power to simulate global climate at sufficient resolution to justify trying to modify human behavior. However having said that commonsense tells us that pollution is bad and should be minimized, where possible, and in the US we have already done this and we are now passing into the realm where the benefits no longer justify the coasts. Energy and lots of it is fundamental to maintaining an advanced society and so the true nature of Climate is critical since the current mode in the political class is that Climate is affected by the production of energy and therefore must be controlled. This belief has manifested itself in the concept of anthropogenic climate change meaning that man is changing the global climate by his very existence. And this belief is being promoted by many to include Bill gates of Microsoft. Gates at a TED presentation in 2010 presented an equation on where CO₂ comes from and that if we don’t stop the CO₂ increase there will be dire consequences for mankind. In previous posts here I have explained that so further discussion here is not needed.

To determine whether climate is changing we need a base and that base is, what is the natural global temperature of the planet?

The natural or base temperature of the planet is directly controlled by solar radiation which is known with great accuracy and precision. Once that is known it’s a simple calculation to determine the base temperature. This is done using the following method. There are three sources of energy that determine the climate on the earth: the radiation from the sun which is said to be 1366 Wm² The actual value based on the orbital range is from 1414.4 Wm² in January to 1323.0 Wm² in July and there is also an eleven year sun spot cycle with a range of 1.37 Wm². The hot core of the planet adds ~0.087 W/m² and the gravitational effects of the moon and the sun (tides) adds another ~.00738 Wm². Of these three the sun’s radiation is by far the most important but considering all three the range during an eleven year solar cycle is from a high of ~1415.3 Wm² to a low of ~1322.4 Wm² so a more accurate mean would be 1368.34 Wm².

The energy emitted by the planet must equal the energy absorbed by the planet and we can calculate this using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. Which is the energy flux emitted by a blackbody is related to the fourth power of the body’s absolute temperature. In the following example the tidal and core temperatures are added after the albedo adjustment since they are not reduced by the albedo.

E       = σT⁴
σ     = 5.67×10^-8 Wm² K sec
A       = 30.6% (the planets albedo, this is not actually a constant)

σT_bb⁴ x (4πR_e²) = S πR_e² x (1-A)
σT_bb⁴ = S/4 * (1-A)
σT_bb⁴ = 1368.24/4 Wm² * .694
σT_bb⁴ = 247.46 Wm²
    T_bb = 254.36 K

Earth’s blackbody temperature                         Earth’s surface temperature

T_bb = 252.23^O K (-20.92^O C) low                         T_s = ~287.75^O K (14.6 ^O C) today
T_bb = 254.36^O K (-18.79^O C) mean
T_bb = 256.54^O K (-16.51^O C) high

The difference between the calculated blackbody and the current temperatures is what we call the ‘greenhouse’ effect that averages 33.39^O Celsius (C), today (18.79 C +14.6 C = 33.39 C), although the range is from 35.52^O C to 31.11^O C from variations in the earths orbit and the 11 year solar cycle. This documented variation means that the stated Blackbody radiation as shown here will give a 4.41^O variation or let’s say 14.0^O C plus or minus 2.2^O C because of the Stefan-Boltzmann Law which has a 4^th power amplification. This will result in a slow 11 year cycling fluctuation of energy in the tropics where the bulk of the energy comes that is not inconsequential.

It is also known that the bulk of this 33.4 degrees C is found in the water in the earth’s atmosphere, and that some of it comes from CO₂. The water in the atmosphere acts as a kind of thermal buffer that delays the incoming radiation from the sun from leaving. If this were not the case there would be no life on earth and it would be nothing but an ice ball so we should be very glad that there is a greenhouse effect.

The above calculation is an exact calculation of the value of the TOTAL current greenhouse effect and is in agreement with accepted values although the one presented here is more exact then the 33 degrees C generally used. The main variable in this calculation is the planets albedo (the amount of reflected light of the planet) whose main component is the planets clouds. Since a small change in the albedo will change the amount of radiation absorbed by the planet and that small change in incoming radiation is multiplied by a factor of 4 the level and makeup of the clouds if more important than any other factor including CO₂.

The IPCC climate models are not capable of handling the complexity of cloud formation and so adjustments and work-a-rounds are used and they are not models they are assumptions. In my opinion this is one the two reasons that the IPCC climate models tend to support a run-a-way thermal build up and why they are afraid of CO₂. What the models have ignored is that the planet has had a very stable temperature for 600 million years despite CO₂ being, at times, over 17 times greater levels than the present. Today’s IPCC climate models cannot handle the CO₂ levels that existed in the past and so they are missing something.

Lastly in this section since the planet would have a stable temperature at any given level of CO₂ that means that there must be some balance between the water and the CO₂ for every level of CO₂ and water. Since we know that the two must equal 33.4 degrees C and that water is the primary greenhouse gas that means that the effect from CO₂ must be less than that of water. This brings us to the next problem the sensitivity value of CO₂ as it must not be great than that of water by definition. The Sensitivity value is a number that describes the amount of effect the CO₂ has on temperature. However the 1979 NAS Chaney report stated that it is probably 3.0 degrees C and that is what the IPCC uses today. If the CO₂ sensitivity value is 3.0 degrees C than its affect on the climate must be greater than that of water and since that is not possible that means that the CO₂ sensitivity value must be less than 3.0 degrees C.

If that is the case, which I think it is, than the CO2 sensitivity value cannot be 3.0 degrees C. And if that is true then the IPCC Climate models are wrong because they are programmed to use this value; and they will not work with a different value. Or I should say that they will not support the Politicians wishes if it is not 3.0 degrees C and then these scientists would lose their jobs.

This will give the reader a basic understanding of what the Greenhouse effect is and how it is calculated. The next post will be on CO₂ and water sensitivity.