‘Climate arson’ and other wildfire nonsense


Real goal is to avoid responsibility for policies, and increase control over energy, lives, property

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Re-Posted from the Canada Free Press By  —— Bio and ArchivesSeptember 20, 2020

'Climate arson' and other wildfire nonsense

In what has become an annual summer tragedy, wildfires are again destroying western US forests. Millions of acres and millions of animals have been incinerated, hundreds of homes reduced to ash and rubble, dozens of parents and children killed, and many more people left missing, injured or burned.

Air quality across wide regions and entire states is so bad people are told to stay indoors, where many have hibernated for months because of the coronavirus, but indoor air is also contaminated. Acrid smoke and soot have been carried to Chicago and beyond. Firefighters are profiles in courage, as they battle the blazes for days on end, while all too many politicians are displaying profiles in opportunism.

Pelosi: “Mother Earth is angry”

“If you give a climate arsonist four more years in the White House, why would anyone be surprised if more of America is ablaze?” Joe Biden thundered. “Mother Earth is angry,” Nancy Pelosi pontificated. “She’s telling us with hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, fires in the West, that the climate crisis is real.”

Despite finally starting to thin out overgrown forests, California Governor Gavin Newsome resorted to the longstanding party line about his state’s wildfires: Manmade “climate change is real. If you don’t believe in science, come to California and observe it with your own eyes.” Washington Governor Jay Inslee agreed. “These are climate fires,” he said. “And we cannot, and we will not, surrender our state and expose people to have their homes burned down and their lives lost because of climate fires,”

It’s ideological nonsense, intended to deflect blame and avoid responsibility for decades of public policy errors and forest mismanagement – and to justify new laws that would multiply government control over energy, industries, jobs, living standards, lives, property, and freedom to choose where and how we live.

One could argue that people shouldn’t have built homes in and near these forests. That they should have been persuaded or compelled to live in crowded urban areas, where crime, riots and Covid run rampant. But they do live in rural areas – and our politicians, land managers and judges have a duty to implement policies and practices that protect their homes, communities and lives, as well indigenous wildlife.

Perhaps slightly warmer or drier summers have made the wildfires slightly more likely or frequent. But decades of laws, lawsuits, fire suppression policies and forest mismanagement practices have guaranteed the buildup of massive amounts of dead and diseased trees, dry brush and grass, and decaying leaves, needles and debris. With every wet spring spurring plant growth that dries up every dry summer, just one lightning strike, careless camper, gender-revealing pyrotechnic or angry arsonist can ignite an inferno.

Timber harvesting and thinning have been banned for decades

Because timber harvesting and thinning have been banned for decades, thousands of scrawny trees grow on acreage that should have just a few hundred full-sized mature trees. As of 2017, tens of billions of scrawny trees mix with 6.3 billion dead trees in 11 Western states; state and federal forests in California alone had over 129 million dead trees. Those numbers have most assuredly skyrocketed since 2017, while steadily increasing dry brush and debris now provide even more tinder for super-heated conflagrations.

Flames in average fires along the ground in managed forests might reach several feet in height and temperatures of 1,472° F (800° C), says Wildfire Today. But under conditions now found in western tinderboxes, flame heights can reach 165 feet (50 meters) or more, and crown fires can generate critter-roasting, soil-baking temperatures that exceed 2192 degrees F (1200 C). Wood bursts into flame at 572 F. Aluminum melts at 1220, silver at 1762, and gold at 1943 degrees F (1064 C)! 2192 degrees is hellish.

Most of this heat goes upward, but super-high temperatures incinerate endangered wildlife – as well as organisms and organic matter in thin western soils that for decades afterward can support only weeds, grass and stunted, spindly trees. Western conflagrations jump fire breaks because these ferocious fires are fueled by the unprecedented increase in combustibles that radical environmentalist policies have created.

These monstrous fires generate their own high winds and even mini tornados that carry burning branches high into the air, to be deposited hundreds of feet away, igniting new fires.

None of this has a thing to do with climate change. To say a 0.1, 0.5 or even 1.0 degree change in average global temperatures would alter these forest fire dynamics defies credibility. To say the monumental fuel buildups in our forests are irrelevant is like claiming a minimally furnished home will burn as easily and ferociously as one filled to the brim with furniture, books, old newspapers and cans of gasoline.

The solution is simple

The solution is simple, though expensive and time-consuming at this point. Cut the red tape. Remove some of that fuel, so that fires don’t get so big, hot, powerful, and destructive. Clear wider areas around buildings, homes and communities. Create more, wider fire breaks. Build more roads that let people escape the flames. Send the timber to sawmills, to create jobs and tax revenues, and American lumber for affordable homes. Clear out brush and grass under transmission lines – and upgrade the transmission lines. Bolster rapid-response airborne and ground-based firefighting capabilities.

Up to now, all this has been prohibited, litigated and shut down in states that now have horrific fires. Radical Greens have even blocked cattle grazing that would control grass and brush in national forests.

Still not convinced? Look at recent major fires that petered out when they reached managed forests.

For years, San Carlos Apache Indian Reservation foresters chain-sawed overgrown trees, harvested better timber, improved timber stands, and used controlled, prescribed burns, weed killer and other measures to keep their forests healthy, protect sacred sites, and preserve jobs and wildlife. They even turn scrubby trash trees into particle board and sell it for furniture, as part the tribe’s timber business.

In 2017, the Wallow Fire, the most destructive wildfire in Arizona history, burned 538,000 acres – but fizzled out when it reached the reservation’s well-managed forest. A year later, the Rattlesnake Fire torched more than 20,000 acres in the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest – but likewise faded out when it reached the neighboring White Mountain Apache timberlands, which had also been managed responsibly and proactively, using the same management practices that guide San Carlos Apache foresters.

For decades, the Southern California Edison electric utility employed selective logging, prescribed burns and other management strategies in its Shaver Lake Forest

Similar success stories can be found in the most unlikely place: California. For decades, the Southern California Edison electric utility employed selective logging, prescribed burns and other management strategies in its Shaver Lake Forest. This year’s Creek Fire raged through treetops and several hundred thousand acres in the Sierra National Forest. But when it reached the SoCalEd timberlands, it dwindled into a low-intensity surface or ground fire – which doesn’t incinerate big trees and wildlife.

Back in August 2013, the monstrous high-intensity Rim Fire immolated 180,000 acres in the Stanislaus National Forest. Thankfully the National Park Service (NPS) had been employing prescribed burning and other proactive management practices for years in Yosemite National Park next door. When the wildfire reached the park, it turned into a far less destructive surface fire.

The ferocious Rough Fire of 2015 roared through California’s Sequoia and Sierra National Forests, totally torching 150,000 acres. But it too became a ground fire when it reached Sequoia National Park, where the NPS had also used prescribed burns and other good management practices for decades.

A final point. The raging fires in our long mismanaged forests are not natural. They are not what used to burn with regularity through America’s forests. A century of fire suppression and fuel accumulation means they turn into superheated infernos. Manage them properly first. Then let nature work again.

The lesson? Regardless of what Earth’s climate may do – regardless of who or what may be responsible for any fluctuations – we must take responsible, appropriate, effective measures now. Doing so will save habitats, wildlife, homes and human lives today, and tomorrow.

We cannot and must let more megafires incinerate forests and people for decades to come, under an hubristic, misguided, ideological belief that we can eventually end global fossil fuel use and control planetary climate and weather conditions, thereby somehow making monster wildfires a dim memory.

Milton Friedman on Real Economics


Fundamentals & Confidence – Which is More Important in Markets?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You have said that fundamentals really mean nothing because the market runs on confidence. What about the fundamentals during the 2008 crash? Didn’t the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers send the market down and then it was supported by TARP and the central banks?

Thank you;

GD

ANSWER: The entire economy is built upon CONFIDENCE and then that moves in ANTICIPATION of events which often may never even take place. Here is a chart of the Crash of 2008. You can easily see that the bankruptcy of Lehman was not really that devastating. Then you look at when the government passed TARP on October 3rd, 2008. The Dow fell from over 10,000 to mid 7000 levels in 5 days after TARP.  It consolidated briefly but continued lower into the week 0of March 2nd, 2009. Obviously, the market continued to collapse as CONFIDENCE declined and there was NO INDICATION that the government intervention ever worked including the monetization by the Fed.

I have made it very clear that LOWERING interest rates has NEVER saved the day. The $700 billion they handed banks saved the banks, but they NEVER lent the money out. They lacked the CONFIDENCE that the crisis would end soon so they would not lend money and simultaneously people are NOT going to borrow to “stimulate” the economy when they too fear the future is just unknown. These theories are made up by academics who have NEVER traded in their lives. It is impossible to understand these concepts without hands-on experience.

This is what Socrates writes for each day during the crash. You have to approach this objectively. There are more than 70 independent models correlating together to produce these results. Then everything must be looked at also from an international perspective. Internationally, Lehman had more of a bearish impact whereas TARP was seen as more positive internationally. What a difference currency makes.


Friday October 3, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low and then closed below that level plunging significantly again by 4.75% which strongly suggests we are entering a potential crash mode position. A break of today’s low of 1031025 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at trading days ago. Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 1018098 and a break of that level can set in motion a panic to the downside. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close above the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 997310 settling at 1048285. The current crash mode support for this session was 999652 which we still closed above implying the market is holding for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 1002412. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session’s low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 943412 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            999652

Previous…          997310

Tomorrow…       1002412

This market has declined for 2 trading days which has been a sharp decline of 5.25%. However, we have not elected any bearish Reversals to date from the high of Wed. 1st.

The Uptrend Line from the last low created at 1036545 tied to the secondary low made on 10/02 remains as resistance standing at 1046421. Only getting above this level on a sustained closing basis will signal a rally to the upside.

Currently, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 1037142. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market has technically been trading beneath our projected envelope of support at 1050088 warning this decline has been rather reasonable down 10% from the high made 09/19. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness.

 

Monday October 6, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low and then closed below that level collapsing substantially again by 11% warning this market is entering a Panic Sell-Off. Penetrating today’s low 952532 and closing beneath it will tend to confirm that warning. The projected support for the next session lies at 907292. Penetrating this level intraday would warn of a panic to the downside becomes possible which strongly suggests we are entering a potential crash mode position. A break of today’s low of 952532 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at trading days ago.

Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 935730 and a break of that level can set in motion a panic to the downside. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close above the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 999652 settling at 1032538. The current crash mode support for this session was 1002412 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 907292. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            1002412

Previous…          999652

Tomorrow…       907292

This market has declined for 3 trading days which has been a sharp decline of 12%. However, the overall decline has been more pronounced falling for 11 trading days. In the process, we have elected all four Daily Bearish Reversals from the high of 09/19.

Our projected pivot point remains as resistance standing at 1029645. Only getting above this level on a sustained closing basis will signal a rally to the upside.

As of now, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 1036545. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market has technically been trading beneath our projected envelope of support at 1045207 warning this decline has been rather a spectacular crash down where emotions run high 17% from the high made 09/19. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness.

 

Tuesday October 7, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low and then closed below that level plunging significantly again by 8.58% which strongly suggests we are entering a potential crash mode position. A break of today’s low of 943667 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at 1186711 which was 41 trading days ago. Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 928188 and a break of that level can set in motion a continued panic to the downside where extreme support lies at 907521. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close below the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator at 1002412 settling at 995550 which alerted us to a further decline was likely going into the instant session. The immediate crash mode support for this current session was 907292 which we have now closed back above suggesting the crash is subsiding. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 907521. Now since we closed back above this indicator in the current trading session, then holding above this indicator for the next session will imply the decline is subsiding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 906159 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            907292

Previous…          1002412

Tomorrow…       907521

 

This market has declined for 4 trading days since the last high established at 1088252 from which we have witnessed a decline of 13%. However, the overall decline has been more pronounced falling for 12 trading days which has been a decline of 17%.

Granted, this decline has penetrated the previous key cycle low established at 1045944 and it is sharply lower by 18% from the last high made 09/19. Most importantly, this market entered Crash Mode 3 days ago. This type of pattern warns we are in the throes of a near-term correction which is rather serious at this moment.

Interestingly, this market has fallen down for 5 days from highest close closed below the previous low warning that the market is still vulnerable. The next projected target support lies at 990658 and we have already broken below two extreme projected technical support levels. Naturally, any short position should include a protective intraday stop above the previous high for now.

 

Wednesday October 8, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low and then closed below that level plunging significantly in panic mode for the fifth consecutive time by 9.17%. This does warn that this market is in crash mode position right now. A break of today’s low of 919478 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at 1186711 which was 42 trading days ago. Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 902755 and a break of that level can set in motion a continued panic to the downside where extreme support lies at 885724. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close above the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 907292 settling at 944711. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 907521 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 885724. Up to now, the market has been holding above this Crash Mode indicator in the current trading session, but it is still declining sharply. Granted, it is also moving lower for the next session. A consolidation would only be suggested by opening above this target, and holding this session’s low of 919478 intraday. However, a break of this session’s low followed by a closing below this level as well will warn that a continued sharp decline is still in motion.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            907521

Previous…          907292

Tomorrow…       885724

This market has declined for 5 trading days since the last high established at 1088252 from which we have witnessed a decline of 15% qualifying this as a correction. However, the overall decline has been more pronounced falling for 13 trading days which has been a decline of 19%.

Granted, this decline has penetrated the previous key cycle low established at 1045944 and it is sharply lower by 20% from the last high made 09/19. Most importantly, this market entered Crash Mode 4 days ago. This type of pattern warns we are in the throes of a near-term correction which is rather serious at this moment.

Interestingly, this market has fallen down for 6 days from highest close closed below the previous low warning that the market is still vulnerable. The next projected target support lies at 966672 and we have already broken below one extreme projected technical support level. Naturally, any short position should include a protective intraday stop above the previous high for now.

Factually, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 1031025. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now.

This market has technically been trading beneath our projected envelope of support at 1017578 warning this decline has been rather a spectacular crash down where emotions run high 19% from the high made 09/19. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness.

 

Thursday October 9, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low and then closed below that level collapsing substantially for the sixth consecutive time by 10% warning this market remains in a Panic Sell-Off. Penetrating today’s low 857919 and closing beneath it will tend to confirm that warning. Our extreme projected underlying support for tomorrow lies at 799800. This market has immediately declined for 6 trading days. This does warn that this market is in crash mode position right now. A break of today’s low of 857919 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at 1186711 which was 43 trading days ago.

Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 835591 and a break of that level can set in motion a continued panic to the downside where extreme support lies at 819531. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close above the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 907521 settling at 925810. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 885724 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 819531. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            885724

Previous…          907521

Tomorrow…       819531

This market has declined for 6 trading days since the last high established at 1088252 from which we have witnessed a decline of 21% qualifying this as a correction. However, the overall decline has been more pronounced falling for 14 trading days which has been a decline of 25%.

Granted, this decline has penetrated the previous key cycle low established at 1045944 and it is sharply lower by 26% from the last high made 09/19. This type of pattern warns we are in the throes of a near-term correction which is rather serious at this moment.

Interestingly, this market has dropped for several days and closed below the previous low warning that the market is still vulnerable. The projected extreme target support for tomorrow lies at 799800 which needs to hold on a closing basis to imply a bounce can form thereafter.

Up to now, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 952532. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now.

This market has technically been trading beneath our projected envelope of support at 999397 warning this decline has been rather a spectacular crash down where emotions run high 25% from the high made 09/19. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness.

 

Friday October 10, 2008

The Dow Jones Industrials made a new low penetrating the previous session’s low after opening below it and then closed below that level collapsing substantially for the seventh consecutive time by 27% warning this market has been in a Panic Sell-Off after 7 days down. It is possible that we may have a temporary low forming. The extreme projected underlying support for today was 799800 which today’s action did penetrate intraday but we closed above that at the end of the session. Our extreme projected underlying support for tomorrow lies at 713534.

Indeed, this market has declined sharply bringing to bear the full scope of emotions in such declines. We need a higher open and a break above today’s high of 890128 while holding today’s low of 788251 to suggest a bounce is in order.

The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator resides at 865254 which we are already exceeded intraday but the market closed below it as of this session’s closing at 845119 Still, this typically implies that this market will rally to test overhead resistance if we exceed that level again intraday.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance

Today……            923667

Previous…          941209

Tomorrow…       865254

Clearly, this market has been in crash mode position up to now. A break of today’s low of 788251 during the next trading session will warn of a potentially serious decline ahead especially if it closes below today’s low again. The last important high was formed on Monday August 11th at 1186711 which was 44 trading days ago.

Our projected support for tomorrow lies at 760663 and a break of that level can set in motion a continued panic to the downside where extreme support lies at 745394. Hence, pay close attention at this time.

We did close below the previous session’s Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator at 885724 settling at 857919 which alerted us to a further decline was likely going into the instant session. The immediate Crash Mode support for this current session was 819531 which we have now closed back above suggesting the crash is subsiding. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 745394. Now since we closed back above this indicator in the current trading session, then holding above this indicator for the next session will imply the decline is subsiding.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points

Today……            819531

Previous…          885724

Tomorrow…       745394

 

This market has declined for 7 trading days since the last high established at 1088252 from which we have witnessed a decline of 27% qualifying this as a correction. However, the overall decline has been more pronounced falling for 15 trading days which has been a decline of 31%.

Granted, this decline has penetrated the previous key cycle low established at 1045944 and it is sharply lower by 32% from the last high made 09/19. This type of pattern warns we are in the throes of a near-term correction which is rather serious at this moment.

Interestingly, this market has dropped for several days and closed below the previous low warning that the market is still vulnerable. The projected extreme target support for tomorrow lies at 713534 which needs to hold on a closing basis to imply a bounce can form thereafter.

Presently, the market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with resistance starting at 943667. The broader cyclical system indicators are also in a bearish position while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now.

This market has technically been trading beneath our projected envelope of support at 981467 warning this decline has been rather a spectacular crash down 31% from the high made 09/19. We have elected all four Bearish Reversals from that high showing weakness. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals from this low today.