Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks
Re-Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
From the attached report on climate change for May 2019 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 30.0% from 1958 to May of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.
The full 37 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data are used with out change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to compliment that plan will be a world wide disaster.
The idea of some Universal Basic Income has been around for a long time. Here is Milton Friedman on his proposal of a Negative Income Tax. There will always be welfare for there are people who cannot work for some disability and others who prefer not to work and game the system. Even programs where the state directly pays for the food rather than food stamps or restricts the food stamps to certain products, the ingenuity of some people cannot be underestimated. They will sell the products they get for cash. There are signs on the streets buying needles and strips from people who are diabetic and get them for free from the state. There are instances where a woman has a child and tells the state she has no idea who the father is yet a night he shows up and leaves when a case worker is due to arrive. These are abuses of the system that no matter what we try to do, there will be people who figure out how to work the system. So there will NEVER be 100% compliance no matter what system we devise.
The Fed meeting this week has triggered a turn in the dollar as US rates dipped on the 10-year to their lowest since Trump took office. As a result, the greenback is the weakest among the majors for the week thus far as we should expect for a decline near-term. Although there has been an impressive rally in EUR/USD, that currency has significant overhead resistance. The euro has not gained nearly as much as its major counterparts such as the Swiss and the C$.
While everyone will focus on interest rates, at the end of the summer we will see a refocus back on the structural problems in the Euro. Trump will be jumping for joy with a lower dollar for that will help in trade issues. The lower interest rates will also help to reduce interest expenditures on the national debt. So once again, we are looking at the calm before the storm.
We are looking at having it Translated into several languages. We hope this English version will be available by October in hardbound. I really hope this will help change the debate for what lies at stake is the future for us, but more so our posterity.
манипулируя мировой экономикой
Manipulation der Weltwirtschaft
You’ve covered the topic of increasing seismic activity and the correlation with climate change extensively in your daily blog.
Since the solar activity started to decline (cycle 24) around +/- 2014-2015, it seems that the rate of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are increasing worldwide.
Below I have added some links as reference to very recent (violent) volcanic explosions. I have also included a link to an overview of actual active volcanoes on earth. It is predicted that solar cycle 24 will end around 2021-2022 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#/media/File:Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progression_and_prediction.gif) meaning that seismic activity will increase.
I cannot make the claim that there is an increase in seismic activity but there seems to be something brewing beneath our feet. The amount of volcanic ashes which is being propelled into the atmosphere at this moment must have an adverse effect on the global temperatures, and if the correlation holds up this is just the beginning.
REPLY: It is truly amazing to me how unprofessional the research has been. I do not know. In hedge fund management I always had to watch what was taking place around the world, so there were constantly multiple relations going on that the research I did was always global. It seems to be just a routine check to correlate everything and see what pops up. The climate change is cyclical and earthquakes and volcanic activity rise during a solar minimum. I fail to grasp why, if you really want to do research, you have to dig up the evidence.
Leonardo da Vinci left behind drawings of human body parts. He was curious as to how the body functioned. It was said that Leonardo would often dissect unclaimed bodies, such as drunks and vagrants. Those bodies were more likely to be male. It was definitely harder to get female bodies to dissect. Nevertheless, Leonardo found one dead pregnant woman to dissect to try to understand how everything worked. That is how research is done. You have to check all possibilities if you want to call it research rather than propaganda. As with the arguments for human-induced climate change (as distinguished from pollution), we cannot simply make assumptions and then assume something that has risen five years in a row will do so forever. That type of forecast in financial markets would be laughed at by everyone. Still, this is how the dire forecasts are being made in climate change and it seems to be simply to get money and fame.
A lot of questions have been pouring in from how much to will there be a kindle version. I am not sure of the cost yet. That depends on the printer. It will be full color and extensively illustrated. It covers everything you wanted to know about what is going on with the central banks. There will be a documentary film next year on this subject matter.
The price will be for general circulation worldwide. As soon as it is available, we will let everyone know.
Draghi has come out and said that is inflation will not pick up, he will do even more Quantitative Easing. I has warned that the central banks, particularly the ECB, are trapped. They simply cannot return to any normal economic model without blowing up the entire Eurozone. This is becoming extremely serious. The only option for governments will be to adopt the Modern Monetary Theory for it has become impossible for central banks to use interest rates to stimulate the economy when governments themselves are the biggest borrowers.
I have put this all out in a book which is off at the printers and I hope will be available soon on Amazon. I have dealt with all the controversial issues and why the economic theories all still taught in universities today are no longer practical or relevant. This is why there is a turn to the Modern Monetary Theory for they have nothing else on the table to consider. Here it is. I have tried to deal with all the issues people have been writing in about in an authoritative manner. I have done this because it is extremely important and I have been told that funding for another documentary to cover this topic has not been granted.
We will let everyone know as soon as it goes up for sale.
The truth at any cost lowers all other costs
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