Washington State Deficit in the Billions – Taxes to Rise


Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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Washington state is multiplying taxes for mega corporations in a move to cover its widening budget deficit. The state is expected to face a $12 to $16 billion shortfall over the next four years, according to the Office of Financial Management. The deficit should come as no surprise as state spending has ballooned by 40% in the past four years alone.

Under HB 2081, the state’s Business and Occupation (B&O) tax will be revised to raise the “Advanced Computing Surcharge.” Corporations earning over $25 billion globally will see their tax rate spike from 1.22% to 7.5%, with the maximum payment expanding from $9 million to $75 million. More specifically, the state is looking to shake down big tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon to compensate for its excessive spending.

Companies earning over $5 million annually will face a tax hike from 1.75% to 2.1%. The state has also implemented a temporary 0.5% B&O surcharge from January 1, 20216 to December 31, 2030, for companies earning over $250 million in Washington taxable income.

SalesTaxMeme

The state requires more revenue, and targeting corporations is merely the beginning. Senate Bill 5814 will raise the state sales tax from 6.5% to 10.6%. Digital automated services were previously exempt from this tax, but beginning in October, tech companies will be required to pay. The state hopes to collect $2.9 billion from this measure alone.

Yet, the state still requires more revenue. Senate Bill 5813 will restructure the capital gains tax to create a new top tier for gains over $1 million. In addition to the 7% base tax, the state has implemented an additional 2.9% surtax. The state expects to generate $321.6 million from this additional fee.

Per usual, fees will be passed on to the consumers.

Naturally, the decision-makers are failing to address the problem—excessive spending. Tax revenue has already increased by 34% or $18 billion since 2019. Politicians passed a number of social programs without proper funding. The child care subsidy expansion passed in 2021, but it took four years to amass the $300 million required. State-funded pre-K expansion also passed in 2021, but the $214 million has not been fully paid. Washington’s tort liability payout account has been operating at a deficit for multiple years, requiring $1 billion to simply move out of the red. What about the Rainy-Day Fund? Democrats used the $2.3 billion revenue to pay for more social programs.

Washington implemented a freeze on non-essential spending in December. Some believe that the state needs to implement a wealth tax, as Democrat lawmakers seek every option to fix the deficit that does not include spending cuts.

Washington managed to spiral into a massive debt in a short amount of time. Governor Inslee approved of incorporating an additional $2 billion into the $69.8 billion operating budget back in March. Eight months later, the Office of Financial Management declared that there was a serious problem and the state could face a deficit of $10 to $12 billion, revising that figure to $16 billion a month later.

The state was operating at a $14 billion surplus three years ago before politicians ramped up their spending by 40%. State taxes have increased by 99% in the past decade, while state spending has risen by 114% in the same time period. It is always the responsibility of the people to pay for government’s fiscal mismanagement.

Russia Constructing Bridge to North Korea


Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

NorthKorea.Russia

Russia-North Korean relations are stronger than ever. Russia has begun construction on a 4.7-kilometer bridge across the Tumen River that will connect the two nations.

Russia’s Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, announced that the project will facilitate trade and tourism and reduce transportation costs. “This is truly a milestone for Russian-Korean relations,” Mishustin said during a video meeting with Pak Thae-song, chairman of North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly. “The significance goes far beyond just an engineering task … it symbolises our common desire to strengthen friendly, good-neighbourly relations and increase interregional cooperation,” he added. Mishustin also stated that the project will help “entrepreneurs” to significantly increase the number of imported/exported goods. The two nations face the harshest sanctions in the world, and North Korea, especially, is in desperate need of food and basic goods.

Tourism will be for the Russians, as North Koreans may not leave their nation without government approval. Leaving North Korea is seen as “treachery against the nation” and punishable by death. It is extremely rare for a citizen to receive clearance to travel, and permits are typically only granted to diplomats, athletes, or the political elite; even then, they are closely monitored. The new bridge will feature checkpoints to prevent anyone from attempting to flee.

“There are many sportspeople and children going there,” Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the Primorye Region, said, without further comment. There are reports that North Korea hosted summer camps for children of Russian soldiers who were killed during the war in Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether Russian families will permit their children to travel to North Korea for summer holiday.

Russia and North Korea, two countries with nuclear capabilities, have strengthened their alliance and this bridge is symbolic of their desire to continue relations. Some speculate that North Korean troops may even be permitted to join the Red Square parade on May 9 to commemorate the end of World War II. South Korea’s intelligence agencies have been monitoring the construction of the bridge.

Sochi, the company in charge of construction, believes the project will be complete by 2026.

Britain Admits They are in Proxy War Against Russia


Posted May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 
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The British Neocons, i.e., Boris Johnson, for whatever reason, have decided to wage war against Russia from the outset. ” It has been pathetic… Let’s face it: We’re waging a proxy war but not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel.”

Sir Richard Moore Indepent

Also in November 2024, when Johnson admits Britain is at war with Russia, the head of MI6 (SIS) in Britain, Sir Richard Moore, tells the world that Vladimir Putin will not stop if he wins the war against Ukraine. He tells the press that the world is at its most dangerous point in 40 years. He naturally blames Putin and accuses Russia of waging a “staggeringly reckless campaign” of sabotage in Europe to undermine support for Ukraine.

Yet, Sir Richard Moore also said that British Secret Intelligence Service agents have been involved in covert operations against Russia on behalf of Ukraine. Moore said:

“We cherish our heritage of covert action which we keep alive today in helping Ukraine resist the Russian invasion.” 

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The New York Times, in a piece “The Secret History of the War in Ukraine,” reported that the CIA also ran the war in Ukraine out of the United States at Wiesbaden, Germany. There was no way Ukraine could sink Russian ships or know where to target without satellite targeting information. As the NYT wrote:

“Longstanding policy barred the C.I.A. from providing intelligence on targets on Russian soil. So the administration would let the C.I.A. request “variances,” carve-outs authorizing the spy agency to support strikes inside Russia to achieve specific objectives.”

Austin Loyod

As the NYT wrote, Lloyd Austin was the “godfather” and “architect” of this covert operation to run the war for Ukraine from Wiesbaden, Germany.

Russia has long known about the role of British and American intelligence operatives in Ukraine. Moscow’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia,  told the Security Council that “Western intelligence agencies, primarily the British MI6, have systematically prepared Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to organize provocations at nuclear power plants in Russia.” Of course, nobody listens to Russia.

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Trump told reporters as he traveled back to the White House on Sunday after Pope Francis’ funeral, the Times reported. “I want [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal.” Newsweek claimed that unnamed European and Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Trump is looking for an excuse to walk away if he can point to even a small point of progress in negotiations as a reason to say his job is done. Newsweek claimed that these statements point to the Trump administration’s impatience about what it says is the slow pace of negotiations. Trump has said he is getting Frustrated and if there is no deal, he will withdraw from any peace negotiations. Quite frankly, with the admissions from Britain, Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal with Ukraine when they are only a proxy for NATO and the EU/Britain.

2025_04_30 Russia no peace is possible

As the Epoch Times wrote, the end of the Russia–Ukraine war is not just around the corner, and negotiators still face several complexities, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 30. This is indeed far more complicated.

Trump_administration_pauses_flow_of_intelligence_to_Ukraine_that_helps_on_battle

Trump has shut down Wiesbaden, Germany, providing the targeting intelligence for Ukraine that was set up by the Biden Administration to wage war against Russia, all under the pretense that this was just a war with Ukraine.

Churchill on Truth

This has been a NATO/Neocon War Against Russia, and the Ukrainians have just been the sacrificial lamb on the Neocon altar of endless wars.

US GDP Stagnant – Q1 2025


Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

STAGFLATION

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for US GDP in Q1, a 0.3% decline annually.

The decline was mainly due to a sharp 41% uptick in imports as they are subtracted when calculating the final GDP figure. Pharmaceutical goods, medicines and vitamins, computers and parts drove imports in the first quarter.

Government spending decreased significantly as well by 1.4%, with federal expenditures down 5.1%. National defense spending declined by 8%, while non-defense spending decreased by 1%. State and local government spending posted its slowest growth since Q2 of 2022 at 0.8%. Government-driven spending is one of the main components of GDP calculations, but a reduction in government-driven spending in an economy should be viewed positively.

There was a notable rise in business investment at 21.9% as capital is flowing to the US. This is a noteworthy difference, following a 5.6% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. Nonresidential investment rose 9.8% in the first three months of the year, led by a 22.5% rise in equipment spending.

Consumer spending grew by 1.8%; services led spending with a 2.4% uptick, followed by goods at 0.5%. Personal savings as a percentage of income reached 4%, down from last year’s posting of 5.4%. Disposable personal income reached 2.7%.

ADP released its jobs report for April, anticipating a 62,000 uptick in private sector hirings. This should come as no surprise as thousands were laid off from their public sector positions. However, the figure is below estimates of 115,000 and sharply down from March’s 155,000 figure. “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.” The Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report is expected to show a 130,000 uptick, well beneath March’s 228,000 posting.

The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on May 13, a week after the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. March posted a core inflation rate of 2.8% on an annual basis, down from February’s 3.1% figure and the lowest noted since March 2021.

Trump’s tariff policy is not to blame for the current state of the economy. War, inflation, debt, poor government policy, and collapsing confidence predate Trump. The Fed’s policy is not to blame either as their policy is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme.

Socrates warned of a massive global shift in 2015 as the sovereign debt crisis cycle turned and public confidence began to decline. The computer identified 2020.05 (May 2020) as a major Economic Confidence Model (ECM) turning point, and needless to say, 2020 was certainly a turning point in every aspect of the global economy. The stagflation we see now began, globally, post-pandemic. Once confidence breaks, stagflation is guaranteed to follow.

Senate Effort to Block President Trump Tariff Authority Fails Despite Three Republicans In Support


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025 | Sundance

Republican senators Rand Paul, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski all voted in support of removing President Trump’s ability to impose tariffs under national security grounds.  However, the overall vote failed in the Senate 49-49.

The vote was mostly symbolic for the upper chamber as the House previously approved a rule to block any effort to restrict President Trump’s trade authority, and the White House would obviously veto any bill that might pass.  However, the vote does showcase the Republicans who are in support of multinational corporations outsourcing jobs and manufacturing.

The bill was originally created by Republican Senator Rand Paul and Democrat Senator Ron Wyden.  The intransigent neocon wing of the GOPe, those who take funds from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (aka Decepticons) also supported the bill, but given the certainty of Trump’s veto, needed to retain their masks.

WASHINGTON – […] The legislation, designed to end the national emergency Trump used to impose his now-paused “Liberation Day” tariffs, failed by a vote of 49 to 49 despite three Republicans joining all Democrats. {Full Story}

Treasury Announces Joint U.S-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund (Minerals Deal) to Repay USA for Spending in Ukraine War


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025  Sundance 

Will U.S. taxpayers ever see a dime repaid? Probably not, because the proceeds will likely end up in the pockets of the professional political class; however, the concept is a good idea in principle.  It is more than likely Zelenskyy has sold his “minerals” to several countries in his perpetual tin cup tour. The ‘investment fund’ aspect is just another way to transfer proceeds into the bank accounts of U.S. Senators.

The previously called “minerals deal” is now essentially a fund created between the USA and Ukraine where proceeds from exploiting Ukraine natural resources will be used to rebuild the country and repay the USA for prior financial support.  According to ABC News, “Both sides were ready to sign the agreement on critical minerals and other resources earlier, but the U.S. said it wanted the main minerals resources agreement signed and the creation of an investment fund document signed at the same time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and a source in the Ukrainian president’s office said.”

WASHINGTON — On April 30, the United States and Ukraine signed an agreement to establish the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. In recognition of the significant financial and material support that the people of the United States have provided to the defense of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, this economic partnership positions our two countries to work collaboratively and invest together to ensure that our mutual assets, talents, and capabilities can accelerate Ukraine’s economic recovery.

Under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump, the Treasury Department and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will work together with the Government of Ukraine to finalize program governance and advance this important partnership.

“Thanks to President Trump’s tireless efforts to secure a lasting peace, I am glad to announce the signing of today’s historic economic partnership agreement between the United States and Ukraine establishing the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund,” said U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “As the President has said, the United States is committed to helping facilitate the end of this cruel and senseless war. This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term. President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine. And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

Both the United States and the Government of Ukraine look forward to quickly operationalizing this historic economic partnership for both the Ukrainian and American people. (LINK)

President Trump Holds Press Availability During Cabinet Meeting


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025 | Sundance

Earlier today President Trump held a cabinet meeting with the heads of all executive agencies.  Following the meeting, President Trump invited the press into the cabinet meeting room where he answered media questions.  WATCH:

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Following Massive Surge in First Quarter USA Purchases, Chinese Manufacturing Output Now Drops in Second Quarter


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025 | Sundance

This next story is a natural outcome in the flow of goods. Remember, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the first quarter is a hindsight review. Meaning the information released today was based on activity in January, February and March 2025.

U.S. companies surged the purchasing of import goods, mostly from China, by more than 50% in the first quarter. They were/are building inventory. So, what happens in China starting in April?

Hong Kong, CNN – China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, as steep US tariffs took a heavy toll on the manufacturing sector, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April, the weakest reading since December 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement that the contraction in factory activity was due to “sharp changes in the external environment and other factors.” (read more)

The U.S. has front-loaded the inventory. So, orders to China drop now. It’s a natural outcome.

We have purchased goods in advance. So, orders to China drop. As a result, the cargo shipments from China to the USA drop in April, May and June.

It’s not that U.S. consumers don’t have the product to purchase; the reality is the product is already here, awaiting purchase.

However, to retain an oppositional perspective toward Donald Trump, the media narrative will not look back at the 50% surge in first quarter purchases; they will only look at the severe drop in second-quarter orders.

With less being ordered, the media will now say the Trump tariffs are hurting consumers, deliveries to ports are substantially less, without ever mentioning the products are already here.

On the upside, there will be a massive rebound in Second Quarter GDP as the imports have dropped; meaning there is less to deduct. However, we will not see that statistically until the last Friday in July.

[…] Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed calls for a negotiated tariff truce with Washington, saying appeasement in the face of US threats will only “embolden the bully.” His comments on the sidelines of a meeting in Rio de Janeiro echoed the message in a striking social media video shared by his ministry calling on the international community to stand up to America’s “bully” leader.

In an interview that aired on Tuesday, Trump said China “deserved” the 145% tariffs that he imposed, claiming Beijing would absorb them.

“China probably will eat those tariffs. But at 145, they basically can’t do much business with the United States,” he said in an interview with ABC News.

Awesome News – GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs


Posted originally on CTH on April 30, 2025 | Sundance

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product.  The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the results of the first quarter GDP.  The overall economic growth seems low at –0.3% until you look at how U.S. companies responded in February and March to the tariff announcement.

Companies proactively purchased massive amounts of products in advance of the tariffs leading to an overall increase in imports of 41.3%.  Which results in a 5.3% deduction to GDP.  Every dollar of those imports is a deduction to the GDP equation, giving the false appearance of lower domestic production.

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20].  That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen.  Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA.  The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.  This is exactly what we want to see.

To give more detail to the economic shift, we turn to Table 2 and look at the contribution impact to the GDP equation.

Here we can see that imports surged and led to a 5.03% deduction to the GDP equation.  Meaning if all things were equal without the Q1 surge in import purchases the GDP would have been +5.0%.

Meanwhile the impact of federal spending decreased 0.33% as President Trump makes the federal government smaller, and federal spending contribution less.  The federal government is getting smaller as a percentage of GDP.  Again, a very positive sign.

Investment in the USA is high.  MAGA working.

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas.  MAGA working.

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products.  If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers.  Main Street starts winning again.

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.

This is very good news all around.