Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Dec 14 2025

EU Not Included in New G5


Posted originally on Dec 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Kallas_rejects_possibility_of_Russia_returning_to_G8

COMMENT: Your peace proposal has become a must-read here. It is said that you set the ball in motion that the EU is the enemy, not Russia. Trump is backing away from the EU, even forming a new G5 with the EU omitted. You have far more influence than you let on.

Anonymous

Zelensky Pushing EU Over the Edge

REPLY: Of course, I am use to being blamed for everything. The EU is the enemy because it is imploding economically. They reject peace because they need war as a distraction. Kill the messenger as always. Zelensky is pushing the EU off a cliff – not me. This is why the EU is becoming so authoritarian. The migration policy is a disaster. But they will never admit a mistake. In the UK, they equate Islamophobia with Antisemitism. But they are different. Islam is a religion, not a race. Antisemitism is not about religion, it is a race. That’s why Soros and Zelensky both pretended to be Christian to escape the Nazis.

Kallas is Lyndsey Graham in drag. She should not be allow anywhere close to power. She personally hates the Russian people blaming them for Stalin but nobody blames the German people for Hitler’s actions. Kallas has openly stabbed Trump in the back every chance she gets. She has openly called for the break up of Russia and has vowed that Russia will never be allowed to return to the G8.

Sun Tsu Know your Enemy

If you do not talk to an enemy, there will never be peace. NATO has convinced all the EU leaders no tio talk with Putin. They constantly claim Putin wants to invade Europe. They are applying the Khrushchev days to Putin. Every word out of Kallas’ mouth is so biased and full of hatred there is no point of even pretending to negotiate with here – IMPOSSIBLE! She pretends to care about civilians but rejects any possible peace deal because of her deep seated bias.

Churchill d day

Once upon a time, we had leaders who were not just honest, but rational. Winston Churchill insisted that he should accompany the Allied invasion fleet across the English Channel on D-Day (June 6, 1944). I would love to see Kallas handed a gun and sent to the front lines in Ukraine that she refuses to seek peace. Churchill only backed down when King George VI personally intervened. He told Churchill that if the Prime Minister, as a commoner, had the right to go, then the King, as head of the armed forces, had an even greater right and would join him. Knowing this was an untenable risk for the monarch, Churchill finally relented and agreed to stay ashore.

1boris Johnson bribe

According to an article published in the British newspaper, The Guardian, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson received a $1 million dollars the year he left office from a man who had a strong financial incentive to keep the war going in Ukraine.

The Trump administration has identified Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland as priority partners and that Washington should pull away from the European Union. There is talk of now forming a new five-power forum with China and Russia, according to Defense One and other outlets. The EU is self-destructing. If the people demand that Brussels reverse its policies, then perhaps the EU can be saved. But that seems unlikely. The EU will break up and perhaps that will unfold because of war. The various member states need economic reform badly. The same Marxist policies that took down Russia and China are alive in the EU and has undermined their economy dramatically.

Youth Unemployment in the EU is outrageous and they have ignored that and allowed a wholesale migration that is indeed turning into a cultural erasure.

Spain: 27.5%

Greece: 25.6% (Q4 2023 data) (recent date may be as high as 55%)

Sweden: 22.2%

Italy: 20.3%

Lowest Rates (March 2024):

Germany: 5.6%

Czechia: 7.6%

Netherlands: 8.6%

Bulgaria: 9.2%

Dec 14 2025

Intelligence No Longer Required


Posted originally on Dec 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Dec 13 2025

Interview: Venezuela, China, Tariffs, Russia, Europe, Japan, and Much More


Posted originally on Dec 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Dec 13 2025

The Armstrong Code – An Amazon Best Seller


Posted originally on Dec 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

TheArmstrongCode.KerryLutz

The Armstrong Economic Code reveals the powerful cyclical patterns discovered by legendary forecaster Martin A. Armstrong, whose Economic Confidence Model (ECM) has predicted every major boom, bust, and geopolitical shift for more than four decades.

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Dec 13 2025

The COVIDIOT


Posted originally on Dec 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Dec 13 2025

A Word of Warning Dealing with the EU


Posted originally on Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

EU Break up

QUESTION #1: Marty.

I just read your post on Europe being broke.  You say get out of all EU assets and they will screw Americans just like they are the Russians.

I have an apartment in downtown Athens that my aunt left to me.  I would guess value is around 250-300K euros.  I’m reluctant to sell in because taxes total 320 euros and utilities/fees another 400 euros yearly.

You’ve been writing about exiting European assets and I looked into selling but being a foreigner I feel realtors are trying to get me to sell for less than it was worth.

I know you have written that hard assets endure against changing currencies and governments.

A quick response would be greatly appreciated.

Alex

ANSWER: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot wrote on X that the EU decision means that “no one will decide in place of the Europeans the use of these funds.” Trump’s NSS document made the point clear that many EU governments are agreeing with that the EU is facing ‘civilisational erasure’ because of its immigration policies and ‘censorship of free speech.’ If you read the NSS carefully, you will see that it focus US relationships with European countries on a few nations with like-minded over these issues. This includes Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland were listed by the NSS as countries America should “work more with”, for the ultimate goal of “pulling them away from” the EU.

Belgium holds $183 billion at Euroclear. Its Prime Minister calls the competing EU plan “fundamentally wrong” and warns Russian litigation could “mean bankruptcy for Belgium.”

I am not concerned about property, but liquid assets that capital control can prevent from being wired. The EU will by no means survive. The actions of the EU and NATO are clearly about their own existence. Neither cares about Europe, the people, or the political member states. NATO is an expired cold war entity that should have been shut down. It’s ONLY purpose is war and to keep the money flowing they need to justify their existence by constantly claiming Russia wants to invade as if this is the days of Khrushchev when communism would defeat capitalism.

4 Horsemen Kushner Fink Witkoff Bessent

QUESTION #2: Larry Fink, Kushner and Bessent are all directly involved in Ukraine negotiations. Who is the 4th Horseman? Steve Witkoff?

GF

ANSWER #2: Yes. I would not invest 10 cents of my worst enemy in anything that they concoct. I warned them not to invest in Russia back in 1998. They did not listen. Soros lost $2 billion. Bessent the left. It’s always the same game. They think that they can control government for the perfect trade. I fear this is another huge loss in the making.

No right to Vote

QUESTION #3:

“I hear you, but it’s hard to comprehend how anyone could want war. I guess they think they and their posterity will be exempt from going to fight and the effects of war. They are willing to sacrifice other people’s lives. After dinner you pointed to my son and said that they would want to send him to fight. I have been looking for ways to avoid that from happening. I won’t allow it. Not for an unjust war.

There should be a law put in place that if you vote for war, that you and your posterity have to be the first to fight on the front lines.”

Franklin on Revolution

REPLY: This is problem. This is about retaining power. War is the only answer for the EU to retain the money and NATO to keep getting 5% of everyone’s GDP to line their pockets for salaries and pensions. The people should have the final say about war. NOT those who profit from war!

Get your liquid assets out of the EU.

They will impose capital controls and they view Trump as the enemy along side Putin.

Dec 12 2025

The EU and Canada Collaborate on Digital IDs


Posted originally on Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

EU and Canada agree to collaborate on digital ID mutual recognition, pilots

The latest agreement between the European Union and Canada to collaborate on mutually recognized digital IDs is simply another step in what I have been warning about for years. Whenever government confidence collapses, the political class tightens control. Digital ID is not about convenience; it is about tracking capital and controlling movement as the global sovereign-debt crisis accelerates.

The danger here is obvious. Mutual recognition means a unified framework. They’re building a foundation to establish a GLOBAL digital ID. Once these systems talk to one another, you have created the architecture for a worldwide database controlled by the political elite. This is precisely what the EU has been pushing with its Digital Services Act and the infamous “digital wallet” proposal. Now they are exporting it, just as they exported their disastrous ideas on Net Zero and financial regulation. Canada, collapsing economically and politically, is following Brussels into the abyss.

The EU and Canada will jointly test a pilot for digital identity wallets. Why do two separate continents need their systems to integrate? You cannot have a cross-border digital ID without a central authority. And once the state has the ability to monitor every transaction, every movement, every piece of identification, they will inevitably link this to taxation, travel permissions, banking access, and even political compliance. This is how governments always respond in the final stage of their fiscal life cycle. Rome imposed travel permits. The Soviet Union created the internal passport. Now the West is doing the same with better technology.

Capital will flee regions that move toward centralized digital identification. This is why we are seeing the migration of capital away from Europe and increasingly away from Canada. Both are moving toward a Marxist model where the citizen exists solely to fund the state. The push for digital ID aligns perfectly with the rising authoritarian wave into 2032 as governments fight to retain power in the face of systemic collapse.

Dec 12 2025

Bulgaria’s Government Resigns Amid Civil Unrest


Posted Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The entire Bulgarian government has resigned after nationwide protests following the government’s decision to join the European Union. “The government resigns today,” Rosen Zhelyazkov announced. “People of all ages, ethnic backgrounds and religions have spoken out in favour of resignation. That is why this civic energy must be supported and encouraged.”

The media portrayed the initial civil unrest as a reaction to the 2026 budget, but the root of the agitation lies with the nation relinquishing sovereignty to join the euro. The Bulgarian government resignation is symbolic; true power lies with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

“The decisions of the National Assembly are meaningful when they reflect the will of the people. We want to be where society expects us to be,” Zhelyazkov said, referring to the anti-government protests. “We have no doubt that the government will receive support in the upcoming vote of no confidence. Regardless, the decisions of the National Assembly are important when they reflect the will of the sovereign,” the prime minister said.

There is massive corruption in the Bulgarian government, hence the need to hold seven snap elections after the 2020 uprising. The people will no longer have the ability to elect their representatives.  Citizens have no trust in their government and do not bother with voting, as voter turnout reached only 34.4% in June 2024. Yes, they may elect who rules Bulgaria, but the EU determines the direction the nation must take. Over 6.4 million citizens must convert to the euro on January 1.

Once Bulgaria joins, it will no longer be able to devalue its currency to remain competitive. That’s how small economies adjust in a floating system. But inside the eurozone, you’re stuck. All monetary policy decisions are made by the ECB in Frankfurt, which answers to no elected body. If Bulgaria experiences a downturn, they can’t cut rates or devalue—just like Greece in 2010. They will be told to cut pensions, raise taxes, and accept IMF mandates. That’s not sovereignty.

Bulgaria now has the luxury of taking on more debt through the European Central Bank. It may now join a war on behalf of the EU against a nation with which it had diplomatic ties throughout the years. Bulgaria is the poorest member of the union; Brussels is not going to allow it to sway the course of the EU agenda in any capacity.

Dec 12 2025

Americans Charged $1 Billion to Buy Now Pay Later Platforms over Black Friday


Posted originally on Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Debt Burden

The private debt crisis, coupled with a consumer-based economy, is a recipe for disaster. Americans followed the age-old thinking of “buy now if it will cost more tomorrow” during Black Friday and Cyber Mondy sales, leading to the strongest year of sales on record. The problem is that a large percentage of buyers opted to “pay later” through Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payment plans, which are contributing to nationwide household debt levels.

Over $1 billion in sales over Black Friday/Cyber Monday was charged through BNPL platforms, a 4.2% YoY increase, according to shopping data from Adobe, which predicts total BNPL spending will reach $20.2 billion by the end of the holiday season.

BNPL offers interest-free installment payment options and is listed as a payment option during most online checkouts. BNPL loans grew from 16.8 million in 2019 to 180 million in 2021 for a total of $2 billion. By 2022, popularity grew and nearly a quarter of US consumers reported using BNPL for a charge. Those with subprime credit are more likely to use this option. The younger generations who favor mobile purchases are also far more likely to use this option as they may not have a credit card. Worse, BNPL provides an illusion of stronger purchasing power.

About 41% of BNPL users were unable to make payments on time, up from 34%, and 60% of users hold multiple loans. These purchases are generally not for big ticket items. In fact, the average loan is $142 per transaction. Apparel, clothing, shoes, and accessories account for up to 45% of all BNPL orders, followed by electronics at 30%. There has been a rise in consumers using this method for essentials like grocery—a massive red flag for the economy.

Total US household debt hit a record $18.585 trillion in Q3 2025, up from $18.39 trillion in Q2. The average debt per consumer stands at around $105,000 per the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Reporting. Around 70% of that debt ($13.072 trillion) is tied up in mortgages. Yet, American consumers are taking on more debt than necessary or sustainable and holiday spending using “pay later” options are a negative indication of what’s ahead.

Dec 11 2025

Hawkish Members Outnumbered – Fed Cuts Rates for Third Consecutive Time


Posted originally on Dec 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Federal Reserve Bank

The Federal Reserve was divided this December; hawkish members of the FOMC were outnumbered, and the central bank approved its third consecutive cut of 2025. “We’re in the high end of the range of neutral,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell added. “It″s so happened that we’ve cut three times. We have we haven’t made any decision about January, but as I said, we think we’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy performs.”

“The discussions we have are as good as any we’ve had in my 14 years at the Fed, very thoughtful, respectful, and you just have people who have strong views, and we come together and we reach a place where we can make a decision,” Powell said.

The ultimate 9-3 vote has brought the overnight rate down to 3.5%-3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump, naturally requested a steeper 0.5% reduction. Presidents Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago were the only members in favor of holding. Miran voted to hold rates during the past three FOMC meetings, but his time at the central bank comes to an end in January. Schmid voted “no” for the second consecutive time.

Of the 19 participants, four issued “soft dissents” expressing disagreement with the decision. Only 12 members have the right to vote on the final outcome. Remember that the president appoints the Board of Governors with Senate approval. Donald Trump sees rates through the eyes of a borrower and mistakenly believes bringing rates down to 0 would lead to business expansion and lower inflation. Trump now has the ability to replace members with candidates who support his dovish stance.

Inflation is driven by fiscal policy, not monetary policy. Congress can run deficits until the sun burns out, and the Fed has no authority to stop them. You can raise or lower interest rates all you want, for it will not change the fact that government spending has blown past anything sustainable. When you borrow without end, servicing that debt becomes a greater share of national income, and that is where the real inflationary pressure comes from. It has nothing to do with whether a handful of hawks around a conference table want 25 bps more. Once FDR hijacked the system and consolidated power in Washington, the Fed became an accessory to fiscal irresponsibility.

The system broke when the government swapped corporate paper for sovereign debt. Once the Fed became the buyer of last resort for federal spending, inflation became a political problem and not a monetary one.