Mar 24 2026

The Gilt Market Is Cracking 


Posted originally on Mar 24, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

UK Gilts - Gilts Explained, Including how to trade UK Gilts

What is unfolding in the UK bond market right now is not about inflation alone, and it is not simply about interest rates. This is the type of move that signals a shift in confidence, and once that begins, it feeds directly into liquidity conditions across the entire financial system.

UK 10-year gilt yields have surged to roughly 4.9%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, while shorter-term yields have also spiked sharply as markets rapidly shifted from expecting rate cuts to pricing in multiple hikes. At the same time, government borrowing is coming in far worse than expected, with a £14.3 billion deficit in February alone and total borrowing still running above £125 billion for the fiscal year. The UK now plans to issue roughly £250 billion in new gilts while already facing over £100 billion in annual interest costs, and that is the part that begins to destabilize the system when yields rise.

The explanation being offered is inflation driven by rising energy prices as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply, with oil moving above $100 and even spiking toward $119. The Bank of England itself has acknowledged that this shock will push inflation higher again and that monetary policy cannot control the source of that inflation because it is coming from global energy markets.

When yields rise this quickly, it reflects a demand for higher compensation to hold that debt, and that is a capital flow issue. Investors are reassessing risk, and once that process begins, it does not remain contained to government bonds. This ties directly into what we just saw with the Bank of England quietly proposing changes to ensure banks can actually access liquidity during a crisis. They are preparing for rapid outflows, and at the same time the government is facing rising borrowing costs.

As yields rise, the consequences move through the economy very quickly. Mortgage rates rise, corporate borrowing costs increase, and refinancing becomes more difficult. The UK is already facing weak growth, and higher energy costs are reducing real income at the same time. This combination reduces consumption, increases stress on debt structures, and ultimately leads to rising defaults. That is how liquidity begins to contract.

The central bank is trapped in the middle of this. The Bank of England has held rates at 3.75% for now, but markets are already pricing in multiple increases because inflation is being driven by external forces. If they raise rates, they increase the pressure on government debt and the broader credit system. If they do not, inflation rises and confidence declines.

What makes the UK particularly vulnerable is its dependence on imported energy and its already elevated debt levels. When geopolitical events disrupt supply, the impact is immediate and severe, and capital begins to move accordingly. That is why the bond market is reacting so aggressively.

This is always how liquidity crises begin. It does not start with banks collapsing. It starts in the sovereign debt market. That is where confidence is priced first. Once government debt comes under pressure, it moves into the banking system, then into private credit, and finally into the real economy. Liquidity is not created by central banks. It is created by confidence, and when that confidence begins to decline, capital moves.

Mar 24 2026

Slovakia Cracks Down on Fuel Tourism


Posted originally on Mar 24, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Euro Fuel Tax

What is unfolding in Slovakia right now is being described as “fuel tourism,” but that term itself is misleading because it suggests something abnormal when in reality this is exactly how markets are supposed to function when governments distort pricing. When diesel is cheaper in one country than another, people will cross the border to buy it.

Slovakia is now moving to stop this behavior by allowing higher diesel prices for foreign drivers and limiting how much fuel can be purchased, after Prime Minister Robert Fico admitted that in some northern regions near Poland, gas stations had “literally dried up” due to cross-border demand. The government has introduced caps on fuel purchases and allowed differentiated pricing based on license plates.

The real cause is not Polish drivers but distorted energy pricing across Europe, which has been building for years and is now being exposed by geopolitical events. Slovakia had artificially lower diesel prices, while neighboring countries had higher prices, and that gap created the incentive for cross-border demand. When governments interfere with pricing, they create imbalances, and those imbalances always attract movement of capital or consumption.

The disruption of Russian crude flows through Ukraine has created supply stress across Central Europe, forcing countries like Slovakia to rely on reserves and alternative sources while prices remain volatile. This is not a localized issue but part of a broader fragmentation of energy supply chains across Europe driven by sanctions, war, and policy decisions that have removed stable supply in favor of politically acceptable alternatives.

What makes this situation more revealing is that Ukraine itself has played a direct role in exacerbating the problem. Zelensky moved to restrict the transit of Russian oil through Ukrainian pipelines, which directly impacted Slovakia and Hungary, both of which rely heavily on that supply through the Druzhba pipeline system. These countries were not aligned with cutting off their own energy lifeline, yet they were forced into the situation by Brussels. Instead of protecting the interests of its own member states, the European Union sided with Ukraine, effectively supporting policies that undermined the energy security of Slovakia and Hungary while expecting them to absorb the economic consequences.

This is where the internal contradictions of the European Union become clear. You cannot claim to operate as a unified economic bloc while allowing external political objectives to override the basic energy needs of member states. When Brussels supports policies that harm certain members for the sake of a broader geopolitical strategy, it exposes fractures within the system that will not remain contained.

What you are seeing now is the collision between political decisions and market reality. Instead of allowing prices to normalize and supply chains to stabilize, governments are trying to prevent the natural response of consumers by imposing restrictions. They are treating the symptom rather than the cause. When stations run out of fuel, it is not because consumers behaved irrationally but because pricing signals were distorted and supply was constrained.

This is exactly what I have said repeatedly about price controls. You cannot manipulate price without manipulating behavior. If you hold prices artificially low, you create excess demand, and when you try to suppress that demand, you create shortages.

Fuel tourism is simply the market correcting a pricing distortion. You cannot have a unified “European market” with fragmented pricing, and you cannot maintain free movement while imposing selective restrictions. Eventually, these contradictions surface.

The deeper issue is energy dependency. Europe has deliberately moved away from stable long-term energy relationships while increasing reliance on volatile global markets. When supply disruptions occur, there is no buffer, and prices become unstable.

Hungary also imposed fuel caps. Each country in Europe is attempting to manage the same problem in isolation, but they’re expected to act in unison. The entire concept of the euro is chaotic, and now we are witnessing a structural breakdown of coherent energy policy across Europe.

Mar 24 2026

Von Der Leyen Laughs at Idea of Sending HER Children to War


Posted originally on Mar 24, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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There is a video circulating of Ursula von der Leyen laughing at the idea of her own children serving in the military, and whether people choose to dismiss it or not, it reflects something far deeper than a single moment. It exposes the widening divide between those who advocate for war and those who are expected to fight it.

I have said repeatedly that the neocons pushing for conflict are never the ones who bear the consequences. They sit in offices far away from the conflict and treat war as if it were a board game. The bloodshed is of no bother to these warmongers.

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Now we see Europe once again moving toward policies that expand their place in Ukraine’s war. Germany is even taking steps toward drafting women, framing it as equality, but it is not about equality. It is about manpower. They are prepared to wipe out an entire generation.

Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk had a conversation on the topic of drafting women back in 2024. “It’s totally immoral,” Carlson said on the subject. “And then I thought, ‘Wait a second, I thought we had a military and a police force — for that matter — in order to protect our women and children.’ That was the whole point of it. I mean, that’s why we have a military is to keep foreigners from hurting our women and children. That’s why we send men to die for their women, our women whom we revere and respect, and to the extent we’re willing to die for them. And so, for sending women to go fight our wars, that — first of all, that’s not, you know, that’s not a liberation movement. That’s a kind of slavery, and it’s totally wrong.”

Who are they pretending to protect at this point? Neocons are COWARDS. History was shaped by leaders like Julius Caesar or Napoleon who actually stood on the battlefield with their men, shared the risks, and led from the front rather than from behind a desk. Today’s political class expects others to fight, bleed, and die for decisions they will never physically face themselves, which is why the public increasingly sees them not as leaders but as cowards who demand sacrifice from others while exempting their own families from the very dangers they promote.

Governments are no longer concerned with public resistance. They are preparing policies based on their plans for a prolonged war, not consent. Von der Leyen’s response was public—imagine how they speak about us behind closed doors?

Mar 24 2026

Who do You Believe


Posted originally on Mar 24, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

shutterstock_2757826197

President Donald Trump on Monday said the United States has engaged in “very strong talks” with Iran and reached “major points of agreement” that could end the war, which Iranian officials have firmly denied.He then claimed that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spoke with a leader in the Iranian regime on Sunday and would continue talks by phone on Monday.

“They want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal, too.”

Trump added that if negotiations fall apart,  “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.”

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, on Monday said “no negotiations have been held with the US.” Iran’s foreign ministry also denied Trump’s claims about negotiations, according to Iranian state-run media.

In response to Trump’s threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that the conflict and its impact on Hormuz has threatened global energy security as well as China’s oil supplies. He warned that Trump’s “use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle.” He added:

“If the war expands further and the situation deteriorates again, the entire region could be plunged into an uncontrollable situation.”

Beijing is a partner of Iran, which has been the victim of this war of aggression launched at the insistance of Netanyahu. China has, however, objected to Tehran’s retaliatory strikes against Gulf States housing US military bases, which has triggered a widening regional war and threatens a major energy and debt crisis.

Churchill on Truth

The real concern is that Trump realized that bombing their energy sector would only result in a retaliation against the Gulf States taking out their production capacity and refineries. Doing that will send oil prices dramatically high for this is not sinking a mere tanker which is no more than a rounding error in global finance. Take out the production leaves a structure crisis more akin to the ’70s.

Moreover, there is also a fear here is that Trump is not a man of his word and he has turned and bombed in the middle of negotiations. The concern here is that this is a story to delay any bombing in 48 hours without admitted that there was no negotiation raising fears that he could then just claim the negotiations fell apart and then bomb then next week.

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The grandfather of Neocons after John McCain died, became Senator Lindsey Graham, who is now boasting about this war with Iran with zero comprehension of how this war impacts the world economy unlike that of Ukraine or even Taiwan. He has expressed support for the U.S. invasion and even seizing Iran’s Kharg Island. Of course, he speaks from the typical neocon arrogance that stems from their delusion that the US has the biggest military and that means they are invincible.

He has zero understanding of the world financial markets and never considers that the Dow Jones Industrials can still fall to the 43,900 level even by next week. Such a move could also send crude oil to $175 by next week.

Mar 24 2026

Is Iran more of a Threat than North Korea?


Posted originally on Mar 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Never Trust Netanyahu 3

QUESTION: You have provided a real history of this constant threat that Iran will have a nuclear weapon, with Netanyahu’s personal obsession with attacking Iran for 40 years. My question is what is the difference that Iran would have a nuclear weapon and that of North Korea or Pakistan? They have nuclear weapons, but that does not mean they use them. It seems to me that the threat means that Netanyahu cannot invade Iran. Am I missing something?

RK

ANSWER: No. This seems to be an obsession of Netanyahu’s. Iran would not suddenly use it to attack Israel, for they know they would be annihilated in return. That is why Pakistan and North Korea do not use them. They are more of a deterrent. You could have done the same to North Korea to “prevent” it from developing a nuke. I have zero respect for Netanyahu, and I believe he is the most dangerous threat to Israel.

Mar 24 2026

Supreme Court Oral Argument on RNC Challenge to Post-Election Day Mail in Ballots


Posted originally on CTH on March 23, 2026 | Sundance

Earlier today the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral argument in Watson v. Republican National Committee, the RNC’s challenge to a Mississippi law allowing mail-in or absentee ballots to be counted up to five days of Election Day.

Many observers have noted the court seems likely to rule that ballots for federal elections must arrive on/before election day itself.   The full oral argument is below.  LISTEN:

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Mar 24 2026

President Trump Visits Graceland – Elvis Presley Home


Posted originally on CTH on March 23, 2026 | Sundance

During his visit to Memphis, Tennessee, President Trump took a detour and stopped at Graceland the former home of Elvis Presley for a tour of the estate.  A few videos are included below.

President Trump signs a replica guitar to memorialize his visit.

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Mar 24 2026

President Trump Delivers Remarks During Memphis Safe Task Force Roundtable Event


Posted originally on CTH on March 23, 2026 | Sundance 

resident Donald Trump travelled to Memphis, Tennessee for a roundtable discussion on the DOJ task force operations. The beginning of the remarks touch on the Iran conflict.  Video Below:

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Mar 24 2026

USDA Rural Announces a $115+ Million Investment to Expand USA Sawmills and Timber Development


Posted originally on CTH on March 23, 2026 | Sundance

This is one of those small stories that carries the potential for significant domestic economic gains.

As many are aware, the U.S. imports a lot of softwood lumber from Canada. Combined with the energy products the lumber sector represents the top two U.S. imports from Canada.  With Venezuela now potentially positioned to replace the former, USDA Rural Development now stimulates domestic lumber development potentially positioned to replace the latter.

Taken as a whole, these two approaches significantly weaken the Canadian leverage that could be deployed in a Free Trade Agreement negotiation.  Assuming, of course, the USMCA is dissolved in favor of two bilateral FTAs.

USDA Press Release – At the Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference today, U.S. Department of Agriculture Administrator for the Rural Business and Cooperative Service J.R. Claeys announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture is guaranteeing $115.2 million across eight states through the Timber Production Expansion Guaranteed Loan Program (TPEP) to ensure sawmills and other wood processing facilities have the necessary funding to establish, reopen, expand, or improve their operations.

Today’s announcement includes recipients in the states of California, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

These investments represent a commitment by the Trump Administration to expand American timber production by 25%, reduce wildfire risk, and save American lives and communities by strengthening domestic wood processing capacity.

“We cannot allow wildfires to devastate and destroy our rural communities,” said Administrator Claeys. “That’s why the USDA is taking bold action to stop the destruction of our forestlands by investing in sawmills and wood processing facilities that support sustainable timber harvesting. These actions strengthen local businesses, support rural prosperity, and create jobs for hardworking Americans.” (source)

This is not to say that expanded U.S. sawmill production would completely eliminate Canadian softwood lumber imports. However, it does create inventory and a stronger domestic supply chain that would diminish any applied leverage that Canadian trade negotiators would seek to deploy.

Without pipelines flowing East or West, Canada is stuck pumping their heavy oil south for processing.  Nothing about that is likely to change in the next few years, even if Canada abandoned their climate change policy (highly unlikely).

Then comes the cross-border auto manufacturing industry, and the realization that -sans USMCA- both U.S. and Japanese automakers are likely to stick with the manufacturing center where their greatest customer base exists, the USA.

Now overlay softwood lumber, and you can see the top three economic dependencies of the U.S and Canada are slowly being uncoupled, simultaneous with the trilateral USMCA provisions being reviewed starting with the U.S. and Mexico having direct conversations.

We keep watching.

Mar 24 2026

Air Canada Flight Attendant Found Alive, Outside Aircraft Wreckage, Still Strapped to Her Seat


Posted originally on CTH on March 23, 2026 | Sundance 

Video of the horrific crash has been released to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the footage also found its way into social media.   The Air Canada jet was landing when it hit an emergency firetruck that was crossing the runway.  WATCH: 

According to a CNN update, one of the flight attendants was thrown out of the plane during the incident and was found alive still strapped to her seat.

(VIA CNN) A flight attendant survived the deadly Air Canada plane crash after she was found outside the aircraft still strapped in her seat, a law enforcement source told CNN.

Two people — a pilot and a first officer — were killed in Sunday night’s crash, Air Canada said. But the airline said it could not confirm the exact number of injuries or deaths early this morning. (Live Updates)