Doctor Li Wenliang who sounded one of the first warnings on the Wuhan coronavirus, and was silenced by Chinese authorities, has died from the virus. This has actually led to a widespread protest in China emphasizing the problems with a sometimes authoritative local government. The clash between the local government’s decisions and those on the national level are coming under closer review in Beijing.
The more traditional bird flu has appeared in the same area of China. The bird flu outbreak was reported Saturday in Hunan, which borders the province of Hubei where the coronavirus broke out in December. Officials said, “The farm has 7850 chickens, and 4500 of the chickens have died from the contagion.” This is a known virus that is a fatal illness among birds, known as H5N1 virus, which causes “a highly infectious, severe respiratory disease in birds,” according to the World Health Organization. The Chinese government announced that it has culled 17,828 chickens as a result of the H5N1 outbreak, according to Reuters.
Keep in mind that these viruses that start in animals can make the jump to humans. Even the AIDS virus, HIV, came from monkeys. Back in 1999, researchers found a strain of SIV (called SIVcpz) in a chimpanzee that was almost identical to HIV in humans. These scientists then conducted more research into how SIV could have developed in the chimps. What they discovered was that the chimps had hunted and eaten two smaller species of monkeys (red-capped mangabeys and greater spot-nosed monkeys). These smaller monkeys were infected and then the chimps consumed these infected monkeys and the two different strains of SIV mutated and joined together to form a third virus (SIVcpz) that could be passed on to other chimps. This is the strain that can also infected humans.
The coronavirus appears to have made the cross to humans by people eating bats. This new outbreak of a bird flu is not easily transmissible to people. The World Health Organization has called on countries to be on guard because the virus can mutate into a transmissible form to cross to humans (The New York Times).
This version of the bird flu is far more deadly to humans than the coronavirus that the conspiracy world has turned into some zombie apocalypse with spliced HIV. Humans who would contract this bird virus would have a mortality rate of 60% in cases studied over the past 15 years. That makes it far more dangerous than SARS or this novel coronavirus, which has had a 2% mortality rate so far despite all the conspiracy mongering of 10% and the attribution of the fall in the US share market is caused by this coronavirus.
OMG! If we all do not drown from climate change or get skin cancer because ice and snow reflect and magnify the sun (which is why you can get sunburn while skiing), then the virus will get us. Just close all the markets and governments should abolish all taxes and we party like its 1999
Even before the Coronavirus surfaced in China there was lower manufacturing factory activity within the Chinese economy. The necessary response within China to control the spread of the Coronavirus has been to shut down most commerce. Factories, schools & businesses throughout China are empty as various containment measures are underway.
The direct result of this response is a severe drop in economic activity. Many analysts are speculating about how this cessation of production might impact supply chains that use Chinese component goods. Obviously, with manufacturing facilities closed any downstream multinational company relying on those products may have supply issues as soon as existing inventories deplete.
There is a natural lag before the manufacturing void hits the consumer market; however, the financial markets are forward looking and they are already reflecting severe drops in stock prices, depending on the dependency/exposure of the company and/or sector.
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese stock and commodity markets fell heavily on Monday as the death toll from a coronavirus epidemic in China rose to 361 and investors retreated into safe-haven assets in the first trading session after an extended Lunar New Year break.
Markets plunged at the open in their first session since Jan. 23, when the outbreak of the newly identified virus had claimed only 17 lives in Wuhan city, the epicenter of the outbreak, in Hubei province.
[…] The Shanghai Composite index shed 8% to hit one-year low on Monday, wiping almost $370 billion off the market value, according to Reuters calculations.
The yuan began trade onshore at its weakest level this year. Iron, oil and copper traded in Shanghai all dropped by their daily limits, catching up with global price falls as the spread of the virus has weighed on the world’s growth outlook.
Investors were bracing for volatility when onshore trade in Chinese stocks, bonds, yuan and commodities resumed, following a steep global selldown on fears about the impact of the virus on the world’s second-biggest economy.
Looking to head off panic, China’s central bank injected 1.2 trillion yuan ($173.8 billion) of liquidity into the markets via reverse repo operations on Monday. (read more)
In a very ironic way, any company that readjusted their supply chain, during the two years of uncertainty over U.S. -vs- China trade discussions and tariffs, will likely be in a much better position than those companies who remained anchored to Chinese manufacturing dependency.
It is going to be interesting to see what the scale of these downstream economic effects are going to be. Many multinationals have adopted very thin supply chains and use ‘just-in-time’ delivery for replenishment. If those companies cannot get resupplied they will be at the greatest financial risk.
Simultaneously, there’s an ironic cover for China within the lack of economic activity. Any pre-existing economic malaise or contraction can now be disguised by Beijing as the result of the current Coronavirus shut-downs.
The conspiracy network is alive and thriving and the gist of this is that the coronavirus is created in some lab because it has a sequence that is similar to HIV. I have two very good sources and they point out that this claim is MOST LIKELY completely bogus. Why? Because this very same sequence also exists in many other viruses and it is NOT unique to the coronavirus or HIV, which by the way was a virus.
This claim comes from a questionable scientist based in India where he took the genome sequences of Wuhan coronavirus, without any peer review, and claimed that it had similarities to the genome of…HIV. Some have argued this is why it is even spreading so fast. Sorry, that is because of how it is transmitted which is like the seasonal flu whereas HIV was transmitted predominantly from sexual contact.
Reliable sources found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Most interestingly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag.
Before we jump to the next zombie apocalypse, I question why any reliable scientist would sport out such findings without peer-review. Everything is turning on this distrust of China. If the coronavirus was splice in a lab by them for military purposes, then surely they would not hand the evidence over to the rest of the world. Let’s be rational here.
Given that the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) appears to have four additions to its genome that similar viruses, like SARS and MERS, are lacking. This implies a lower death-rate, but perhaps a higher contagion rate being more similar to the seasonal flu. These additions being touted by the scientist in India claim they are identical or extremely similar to parts of the HIV genome. The authors go on to speculate that this may be why the coronavirus is spreading so quickly, and also that something sinister may be afoot. He did not bother to elaborate on what methods were used to genetically insert these into the coronavirus.
Sources checking whether it was true that HIV and coronavirus have similarities found that while these sequences do pop up in HIV, they ALSO pop up in so many other viruses. There’s absolutely NO EVIDENCE that they are immediately suspect or that they were somehow genetically spliced in by the lab in China which is the implication. One out of four sequences is indeed found in both Wuhan coronavirus and HIV. The same sequence also appears in a virus that infects Streptococcus (spherical bacteria), which is of a rat virus in origin. They also appear in what is known as an “acute bee paralysis virus.”
Sorry, perhaps the culprit may just be mother nature and not some mad scientist in a lab. We should wait for a peer-to-peer review, but this claim from India appears to be bogus on the surface. It is not pointing out that this sequence also appears in many other viruses
QUESTION: Marty, it seems that this virus is turning into a major scaremongering contest to boost ratings for people like CNN. Even if we take 10,000 cases in China with a population of 1.3 billion, the number of people infected is infinitesimal. Most people who get flu symptoms do not go to hospitals. It seems to me that even if there were 200,000 people infected with the vast majority never going to the hospital, this is really blown way out of proportion. Do you have any other info?
Thank you for being the only sane person out there.
CS
ANSWER: The population of China is 1.386 billion. If we look at the stats from last year’s flu season, which peaks between December and February according to CDC, the 2018-2019 season, the CDC estimated that 16.5 million people went to a health care provider for the flu and more than 34,000 people died in the US last year. That was 5% of the American population. The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased slightly to 1.7%, which is below the national baseline of 2.2%. Even if we assume that 5% of the population in China get this coronavirus, that would still be less that 0.005% of the population of which about 2% would die. Even if the death rate were 10% as the conspiracy theories love to claim, then the loss to the population would still minimal.
This is by no means at the Black Plague level or some biological weapon with a kill ratio of 90%+. There may be many more people with the virus, but they do not seek medical outpatient help because it is still only like normal flu.
The Coronavirus has been declared by the World Health Organization (WH) to be an emergency. As I reported yesterday, the death rate may not be as high as SARS which was 10%, but its spread rate is far greater. The number of cases jumped in a day from 7700 to 9682. The WHO defines a global emergency — formally, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern — as “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.” This is the sixthdeclared in the past decade.
There have been only five such emergencies declared in the past decade:
Four of those six global emergencies took place during the last ECM and this one began on the turn at the bottom. Since our disease model on influenza is a 13-year cycle, that is also pointing to 2022 as a crisis year. If this coronavirus has the same life-expectancy for its global spread before reaching a peak, that also points to 2022. The good news, the death rate seems to be legitimate and it still runs less than 3%.
This has the potential to reduce economic growth further on an overall global scale
COMMENT: Hi Martin,
I totally agree with you that there is absolutely ZERO evidence to support any conspiracy theories about a “weaponized virus”.
But I would like to stress that I still think there is no coincidence that the epicenter occurred in Wuhan where the only Chinese BSL-4 lab exists – a lab that only became fully operational last year, first major “bug” studied was SARS and one of the main researchers working there has published papers regarding novel coronaviruses and bats. I will point out that there have only been three further SARS incidents and TWO of them were due to lab problems with protocols.
I have worked in a few companies where we had BSL labs. There were always “accidents” – most due to typical human attempts to reduce work by ignoring protocols. If you step back and objectively look at probabilities for a novel SARS-like virus to suddenly erupt at exactly this point in time due to some random “shady seafood market” it just seems…highly improbable.
But I will point out that there are some confounding factors if you add in a brand new BSL-4 facility in the vicinity. There are a couple of obvious “vectors” for anyone who has worked in these labs and also understands China – my wife is from Sichuan and I’ve been to China (more than 10 cities across the cardinal directions).
#1: Lots of work at a BSL-4 lab actually takes place at a BSL-2 level. CDC and Chinese officials have pointed out that BSL-2 protocols are completely inadequate for 2019-nCoV.
#2: BSL-4 (and any serious study of both virii and bacterial agents) requires both incubations as well as “test subjects”. These can (and often do) bite…or at least escape from cages.
There is a good Lancet article on the Wuhan origins. Again, having worked in BSL related to study for infectious agents, the Lancet overview of infections and also knowing Chinese “culture” there are a couple of salient points:
#1 Gloves. If BSL-2 protocols were not sufficient and yet lots of tests were being run there….Gloves got contaminated. For the lab – no problems, just toss them out – but for any poor person picking through the garbage and suddenly finding a “treasure trove” of “hardly used” gloves…Well. I’ve been to these markets and the sellers all wore gloves. Filthy gloves.
The massive spike of infected people going to some random market suddenly got an incredible boost as a disease vector.
#2: Serious study of bats for SARS-like virii requires a LOT of bats. Likely brought from the original SARS site. If there is trade in bats…well…overstock is easily sold in the market.
The most interesting facet is not really the origin but the long-term effects on China. Both cultural and, for you models, financial. I think we are about to see a significant “step function” that will impact globally.
It is very significant to me that your model seems to have landed on the “tipping point” for the 2019-nCov. This is extremely significant and, from my perspective, likely to have much broader implications than even your models may predict.
take care and stay warm,
YK
REPLY: We may never know the precise origin. Whether the impact of this virus will be significant and run into 2022 is of extreme interest. There is no question the fact that this took place on the ECM turn date holds the potential for this to be very important. With the American CDC going to China, perhaps this will help to verify the true death rate and stop all the conspiracy stories which do not help us get a true picture of what is taking place. Conspiracy claims that it’s always far worse are the very foundation of the Climate Change activists.
Many have asked that since this Coronavirus appears to have caught everyone’s attention with the turn in the ECM on January 18th, 2020, the questions have poured in asking if this was a major event given our model had been projecting a rise in disease would begin in 2020 coinciding with the new Solar Cycle which should be the lowest in probably 200 years+ meaning colder weather. There is certainly an interesting correlation that we should not ignore. This at the very least warrants a review of the Spanish Flu which killed millions back in 1918.
The first reported case in the Spanish Flue was March 4th, 1918. That did peak out by December 1918 so in that case it was more of the end rather than the beginning which aligned with the ECM. Therefore, the turning point was December 31/Jan 1, 1919. The Journal of the American Medical Association final edition of December 29, 1918 wrote:
“The 1918 has gone: a year momentous as the termination of the most cruel war in the annals of the human race; a year which marked, the end at least for a time, of man’s destruction of man; unfortunately a year in which developed a most fatal infectious disease causing the death of hundreds of thousands of human beings. Medical science for four and one-half years devoted itself to putting men on the firing line and keeping them there. Now it must turn with its whole might to combating the greatest enemy of all–infectious disease.”
While governments are seeking to impose travel restrictions, this virus has a lower death rate under 3% compared to the SARS outbreak of 2003 which reached a 10% death rate. However, what is different with this version of the virus is the infection rate is far greater. This virus escalates exponentially insofar as its infection rate. Clearly, this will impact tourism on a global scale for the media attention with this is far greater and the conspiracy spin is unbelievable from it being a biological weapon and something that was stolen from Canada.
The first reported cases of SARS back in 2003 took about a month before it translated into a surge in cases. Then there was a second surge of infection which hit the hospital sector which came about two months later. This version has a greater infection rate but a lower death rate. This introduces a risk of a greater potential for a pandemic. Therefore, our model shows choppiness in the financial markets until April and a general turning point come around May.
There is clearly a potential for a pandemic in this case of the yet unnamed 2019-nCoV which merits heightened concern. At the time of writing this post, there is still less than 7,000 cases. If the people infected in turn infect 2 to 4 others, compared to the normal flu which is about 1.4 infections, then the 6,000 could reach 200,000 within a couple of weeks. The total amount of infections under SARS was only 8,098 across the globe back in 2003. Therefore, given this version of a coronavirus has a faster infection rate, a pandemic appears likely. The question is our model is pointing to 2022. This virus has already begun to mutate. Does this imply it will mutate and continue into 2022 or will there be yet something else coming our way?
Many people are claiming that the death toll is really 10% and that China is lying. The CDC from America is flying there to assist so we will know a bit more about the veracity of that claim. They also claimed it was a biological weapon and it was stolen from a lab on Canada.
COMMENT: Thank you for not being the crazy doomsday guy who latches onto every story and then blows it out of proportion. The death rate is as you say, less than 3%. All the wild stories from nurses claiming there 90,000 infected to others trying to claim the death rate will rise to 10% or higher. These just scare tactics from the same people who always claim the end of the world is next week.
BE
ANSWER: The number of cases is up to 2,794 and the reported deaths at 80. The incubation period for this coronavirus is about 14 days. The incubation periods for the last two coronaviruses SARS and MERS, was 2 to 7 days and about 5 days, respectively, according to the CDC.
The duration might be 2 to 3 weeks before you recover fully, but that’s pretty much on par with most flu epidemics. There is absolutely no indication that this is a biological weapon. Had it been, China would NEVER have shared the genetic code. We still see the worst season with 4 different models converging on 2022.
I have pretty good sources and they do not expect this to cause a lot of deaths. As of January 24th, U.S. officials have screened more than 2,000 people from about 200 flights in the active entry screening program which is underway at five U.S. airports. There have been no cases identified as part of the program. China has halted ALL flights out of Wuhan, quarantined the entire city, and canceled major Lunar New Year celebrations.
I wish the world was ending next week. I am tired of paying outrageous taxes. It would be nice to migrate to a different plane of existence. Hopefully, they don’t have corrupt governments, regulations, and taxes there.
There is a conspiracy theory that is running around very fast which portrays this Coronavirus which began in Wuhan may be linked to two laboratories of the Chinese bio-warfare program. This story is making the news but it appears to be just a coincidence at this time. The laboratory is the only declared site in China that is capable of working with deadly viruses. The death rate is inconsequential for a bio-weapon. Those that die are typically weak in health, to begin with. If we take the reported number of people infected, 1300, and 41 deaths reported, the death rate is about 3% which is not inconsistent with other flu epidemics.
In 2003 and 2004, the SARS epidemic killed nearly 10% of the 8,096 people infected in 29 countries who fell ill. A total of 774 people died, according to the World Health Organization. MERS (2012) is even more deadly, claiming about 30% of people it infects. An effective bio-weapon must have a death rate of at least 33% to be considered possibly viable. For example, the death rates range from 25% to 75% for gastrointestinal anthrax and can reach up to 90–100% if anthrax is inhaled. That is the difference with a bio-weapon.
This version of Coronavirus appears to be natural so far. China has even shared the genetic code with the rest of the world. They certainly would not do that if this was a bio-weapon. I have been checking all of my sources on this issue given the rising conspiracy theories running around. It appears to be perfectly a natural cycle at this time.
Therefore, the hype over this Coronavirus seems to be exaggerated. It does not appear to be something that is linked to the bio-weapons lab, for that would be far more lethal. There are other claims running around that China is under-reporting the number of infections claiming a nurse says its more like 90,000 infected. Even if that were true and not again a major distortion, then a 3% death rate would mean there should be 2700 people who have died. This does not yet support these rumors. Even if the death certificates say “viral pneumonia” rather than “Coronavirus” may under-report the death rate, there still does not seem to be a massive death rate that would be associated with a bio-weapon.
There is the issue of smuggling viruses out of Canada to China. They certainly would be exploring the possible gene-editing and other cutting-edge technology and integration to raise the specter of such pathogens being weaponized. However, this comes back to the death rate. So far this is within the normal spectrum of the flu with 2%-3%. If the death rate exceeds 20%, then it is time to consider the bio-weapons angle.
I have had this rumor for several days. I will not publish something that seems to be to be baseless. I am not here to sell advertising on this site so there is no need to post outlandish headlines to get people to click so we make more from advertising. I try to provide reliable information – just the facts. There appears to be an effort to use China’s transparency against them.
The other conspiracy theory is that governments are creating viruses to force people into abandoning paper money. Paper money can be a hospitable environment for viruses and bacteria which can liveon most surfaces for about 48 hours. Paper money, however, some claim can reportedly transport a live flu virus for up to 17 days. It’s enough to make you switch to credit cards at least. I have not found that scenario being discussed behind the curtain.
Australian dollar notes are made of a polymer, which has a waxy feel, while the banknotes of the U.S. and several other countries are made of cotton fiber paper. Australia was the first country to introduce polymer banknotes back in 1988, which have been adopted by other countries such as Canada and Vietnam. Because they are Polymer-based banknotes, they are “cleaner,” meaning more resistant to dirt and bacteria, than cotton-based ones. Therefore, the solution would be not to eliminate cash, but to move to polymer.
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