Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks
Re-Posted Mar 30, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Here we go with the same old hypothesis over the Quantity Theory of Money that Trump is (1) nationalizing the Fed, (2) the Fed’s actions are worse than the virus, and (3) Forbes proclaims that the Trump & the Fed are destroying the dollar. It is really fascinating how these propositions running around are not only foolish, but the classic myopic view that the world begins at the California shoreline in the Pacific and ends on the beaches of Virginia at the Atlantic. Oh yes, there is Canada to the North and Mexico to the South. But who pays much attention to them anyhow. Canadians just come to America for holidays and Americans go to Mexico for a holiday and to eat Tacos.
The Washington Post showed not only its profound bias against Trump, but also its total ignorance of financial history and the Federal Reserve. They reported:
The economic debate of the day centers on whether the cure of an economic shutdown is worse than the disease of the virus. Similarly, we need to ask if the cure of the Federal Reserve getting so deeply into corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, commercial paper, and exchange-traded funds is worse than the disease seizing financial markets. It may be.
If the Washington Post ever bothered to do actual research instead of just promoting their personal political agenda, they might discover that the original design and purpose of the Federal Reserve was to support the economy directly. They were to buy corporate paper to PREVENT companies who could not borrow when banks were hoarding cash from laying off their employees. It was Congress that usurped the Fed for World War I and directed them to buy government paper EXCLUSIVELY. Congress effectively nationalized the Fed a long time ago transforming it into a quasi-government agency. That much the Washington Post is using to blame Trump.
The Washington Post’s slogan is Democracy Dies in Darkness. So, why are they constantly only pushing their political agenda? Are they not keeping the people in the dark?
They have conveniently forgotten that there was TARP where the government poured a trillion into banks who never lent out the money because they had no confidence in the future. They then turned and pleaded with the Fed to create the Excess Reserve facility. So, TARP only bailed out the banks but not the economy – hence no inflation. Already, Excess Reserves are rising again showing that banks are once more NOT lending but hoarding. Banks will ALWAYS act in their own self-interest. They are not there to support the economy.
This is the first time the Fed is returning to its original design – direct lending to the economy skipping the banks. The Washington Post is clueless because they look at everything as a way to bash Trump and hurt the country just for their personal political view.
Then we had Forbes Magazine which is trapped by the Quantity Theory of Money and like a fool who keeps sticking their finger in an electric socket and expecting a different result, keep declaring that increasing the supply of money will destroy the dollar. They even can’t figure out why the Euro rallied and of course just blamed Trump. Instead, they talk to biased crypto people who proclaim the Fed balance sheet will rise to $10 trillion and this results in the headline:
Donald Trump And The Fed Are Destroying The U.S. Dollar
They had the audacity to claim the rally in the dollar was ONLY short covering. These people are biased and have no idea of what is happening outside the United States. It very plain, Trump is NOTnationalizing the Fed. The Fed was a steady process of nationalizing it since World War I. For the FIRST time the Fed is departing from Keynesian Economics because it knows that won’t work. Europe needs this crisis because it has no power to deal with the economy when the central bank is trapped in negative interest rates. The ECB is now pushing CoronaBonds, because it cannot continue to support the European member states. Netherlands and Germany are opposed to the idea. The only way to break the backs of Netherlands and Germany is to propel this crisis as the justification to federalize Europe.
The Euro has rallied BECAUSE capital is being taken home to cover losses everywhere. These people are obviously ignorant of what a LIQUIDITY CRISIS is all about. At the WEC in October, we warned we were entering a Liquidity Crisis stemming from the rise in Country Party Risk and this would be a different crisis all together because we faced a Bond Bubble. What is unfolding should be no surprise. The markets have been showing this would be the outcome since the Repo Crisis began September 17th, 2019. They have also no clue what big money does on a quarterly basis. I suppose this gives new meaning to the saying: Ignorance is Bliss!
Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease
Posted Mar 30, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Hey, Martin.
Thanks for your models and the key insights. My wife, who is an ER nurse, came across this article recently. She read about 90% out loud to me as she believes, based upon her medical knowledge and overall disgust with the hysteria around COVID-19, that this post gives some great perspective on the virus and its economic impact. It’s worth a read, and perhaps a repost to your blog:
REPLY: This entire affair has become a war against Trump. It is no longer about the virus nor is it about what is best for the country. A recent piece in the New York Times talked about Liberty University’s spring break would be over and its president, Jerry Falwell Jr., spoke with the physician who runs Liberty’s student health service. Dr, Eppes replied: “We’ve lost the ability to corral this thing.” He did not urge Falwell to close the school. “I just am not going to be so presumptuous as to say, ‘This is what you should do and this is what you shouldn’t do.’”
The New York Time then reports that Mr. Falwell is a “staunch ally of President Trump and an influential voice in the evangelical world.” When anyone disagrees with the panic they are being deliberately mocked. The media is in full swing to take down Trump. Anyone who dares to disagree with their position to shut down the world economy is being blocked as Twitter has done with the President of Brazil who was urging people to return to work.
This is becoming an all out coup. Freedom of speech is suppressed and anyone who dares to disagree with the left is isolated, hated, and mocked. The world these people are creating will be very dark indeed. They are encouraging civil war at every turn. People cannot be locked down. Already people are starting to rob stores, break-in and looting food in Italy, and we are just getting started.
In England, you are only allowed outside your house once. Neighbors are encouraged to report on each other exactly as they did behind the Berlin Wall. One of our readers who lives in a wealthy suburb of London reports that a neighbor’s house where they are not there has been looted three times. The police finally arrive two days after the third time and said bad luck.
What the press is doing to society this time around just to defeat Trump and right is not only casting us into a new age of totalitarianism, but we are not coming out of this in any possible way where it will be a return to business as usual. The press is aiding and abetting the overthrow of democracy all to desperately change the balance of power.
Many people didn’t like the forecast that China would supplant the United States as the next financial capital of the world. Some emails were outright nasty. I do not think it takes that much imagination to see why Socrates will be correct. The West is committing economic suicide. Asia is returning to normal as quickly as possible. We are engulfed in the collapse of socialism and governments conspiring to eliminate paper currencies, seize all assets including cryptocurrencies, and force everyone into their digital currencies to ensure 100% control of our financial lives.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease
Re-Posted Mar 29, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts
Re-Posted Mar 29, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
I’m a long time reader of Martin’s blogs and subscriber to the Pro service
I’ve a question for Martin following his recent post “Sorting the Nonsense & Prejudices from the Truth of Reality” – it resonated strongly with all of the biases and prejudices that I’m seeing in the UK’s NHS healthcare system and it’s approach to innovation adoption and the potential for ML and AI.
From all I’ve read of Martin’s work – isn’t he tempted to do further good in the world by applying Socrates (or partnering with others) to the world of healthcare – from drug discovery to disease management and appropriate diagnosis and triage based on facts rather than long held beliefs/rules of thumb?
Would love to hear Martin’s thoughts/intentions about applying Socrates to healthcare
Many thanks in advance for all the work you do
Best wishes and keep safe
ANSWER: I have no problem with such a proposal. But it would take someone to put up the money for a team. I really just don’t have the time. I am absolutely buried right now because we are international.
Well, well, well…. After the media went bananas trying to refute President Trump several weeks ago after he spoke optimistically about the potential for a malaria medication called chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to be used to combat the coronavirus, today the FDA has approved its use.
WASHINGTON – The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence.
The agency allowed for the drugs to be “donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible,” HHS said in a statement, announcing that Sandoz donated 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the stockpile and Bayer donated 1 million doses of chloroquine.
The move was supported by the White House, part of a larger Trump-backed effort to speed the use of anti-malaria drugs as a potential therapy for a virus that has no proven treatment or cure. FDA already has allowed New York state to test administering the medication to seriously ill patients, and some hospitals have added it to their treatment protocols.
“Let’s see how it works,” Trump said at a press briefing on Sunday, referencing New York state’s efforts. “It may. It may not.”
[…] Three officials told POLITICO that FDA’s planned move would facilitate more access to the drug by allowing more manufacturers to produce or donate it. (read more)
Thankfully as a nation this crisis is causing us to reevaluate our priorities: faith, family, community and freedom; and seeing the easy dispatch of liberty also reignites that oft forgotten flickering flame…
Journalists are less important than janitors. Our nation’s best athletes are healthcare workers rushing to assist those in need. The true heroes are not celebrities, but rather farmers, truck drivers, stock clerks, and supermarket cashiers.
The most valuable businesses do not glitter or present themselves with self-congratulatory award shows; they do today what they have always done to keep our food supply flowing. Perhaps now, at least for a few short weeks, we stop taking them for granted.
Effective right now comfortably invisible workers are recognized as critical priorities; or as the government has officially designated them “essential services.” These folks form the network of our lives; they always have, but we didn’t notice. Everything else is less than.
Any average hard-working American is worth more today than all those who chase the golden statues of Hollywood; and ultimately if they want to go down the superiority path… well, what they provide is essentially useless.
- Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering and efficiency superiority. They didn’t blow every PhD intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.
Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: “WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY”….
- When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take over five years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaitis and Saudis called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in ten months.
We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.
- When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved every one of them….
That’s our America.
Don’t loose sight of it.
- When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his virgins, begins opening fire on a train in France, the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little nut with a death wish.
Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us. That’s you.
That’s just how we roll.
Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre. Yet for the better part of the past decades groups of intellectual something-or-others have been selling an insufferable narrative that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other. Enough!
- Ordinary people, just like you and me, gave their lives and crashed flight #93, a commercial airliner, into a field in Shanksville Pennsylvania so they could save our nations capitol. Yeah, I think we can wash our hands, quit touching our faces and stay inside for a few days.
In case you missed it, it wasn’t FEMA driving jacked-up monster trucks into the flooded neighborhoods around Houston Texas to rescue people from their homes; it was a bunch of glorious rednecks assembled like the second division of the Cajun Navy… which also just happens to be a fabulous bunch of shallow water boat operators who convoy their gear voluntarily into the aftermath of hurricanes and floods.
That’s America folks; in all her magnificent colorblind glory.
Git-r’-done ain’t government.
Quoting from Bart Hall:
Truckers are saying “fuck the log rules, I’m hauling” and they’re getting supplies to the stores. People are stocking the shelves all night and letting old people shop first. Folks are buying meals for truckers, who (obviously) can’t go through the drive-ups. Asking ’em what they want, then buying it for them.
Carnival Cruise Line has told Trump “We can match those big Navy Hospital ships with some fully staffed cruise ships”.
GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.
In a project with which I’m loosely associated, a very-effective agricultural disease-control agent was re-purposed and re-labeled specifically for Corona-virus control by the FDA and EPA in under ten days, from initial request to distribution.
Restaurants and schools have said, “we’ve got kitchens and staff; we can feed the poor kids who used have school lunch.”
NBA basketball players have said, “Hold our basketballs while we write checks to pay the arena staff.”
Construction companies are saying, “Here are some high-end masks for medical staff and doctors”.
Distilleries are making sanitizer out of distilling “heads and tails” which are normally discarded. Nasty shit to drink, but effective sanitizer.
People are tipping grocery check-out clerks and thanking them for taking the risk.
Local, state, and county governments are taking control of everything the feds cannot do. Some are doing it wrong, but for the first time in decades … they’re doing it. Federalism is re-emerging, and the smallest unit of government is the individual and the family. This, too, is re-emerging after decades of dormancy.
As Japanese Admiral Isokuru Yamamoto said, after Pearl Harbor … “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”
I sense this has just happened. We have a wonderful country, the greatest single force for good in all human history. We have closed our borders, with good reason, yet we have top medical people now assisting North Korea in their response to the virus.
Many things have been re-set, and will never be the same.
By microbiological accident, we are living in profoundly transformative historical times.
So I ask you a question, what part are you to play?
If you feel comfortable sitting in your socially distant box and bitching about all things that are not right, or might be not be right…. Or, if you prefer to allow yourself to be overcome with dark imaginings simply because what cannot be done is more comfortable than the effort to oversee what needs to be done…. well, that’s okay.
You can do that.
And when you’re done doing that you’ll still be in the same place.
Or, you can check on older neighbors to make sure they are OK and make sure they have necessities. If older neighbors need something at the store, get it for them. Friends and neighbors who are anxious, send them a card or note with positive comments on it. Give people hope. If you don’t want to send a card, send an e-mail checking up on people.
Order an extra lunch or dinner from a local restaurant just so you can give an tip to the delivery person who shows up at your door. Then stick the extra in the fridge and eat it tomorrow. We can do this.
No-one is saying this doesn’t suck; but some people know that standing around bitching about the comparative values of current life in suckdom doesn’t actually accomplish anything.
President Trump is doing what needs to be done; with far more information than me; and in the best manner he can assemble to keep America great. He does this while simultaneously swatting away thousands of piranhas biting at him on an hourly basis.
So again, ask yourself a question: what part are you to play?
Live your best life.
You only have this moment once.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the critical decisions to balance health risks for Americans with the need to keep the U.S. economy primed to reignite.
The Treasury Department has stood up a system inside the Small Business Administration that cuts through much of the bureaucracy. By using FDIC lenders (local banks) as the point of contact for small businesses and S-corps Treasury can backstop the process.
The local business (or S-corp) takes their payroll and yearly expense documents to their local bank where they already have a relationship. As long as the bank is in the FDIC network; and because the emergency funds are distributed based on a good faith relationship; the bank gives the business or individual immediate access to funds; the bank deposits in the business account. The FDIC guarantees the lender against any risk.
If the business does not continue payroll for the employees, the funds are considered a loan that must be repaid. However, if the business retains their employees (continues to keep current payroll); or -if needed- rehires any recent lay-offs using the funds provided; then the emergency loan becomes a grant the business will not have to repay. The system should be in place by this Friday.
The process is smart and can benefit the majority of Americans. What Trump/Mnuchin has put into place is an incentive, a no cost way, for employers to continue paying their employees instead of the employees using unemployment compensation.
Companies with 0 to 500 employees can access the Treasury funds through their local bank or credit union (FDIC Lender). As long as the company retains their employees, meaning continues to pay them, the loans do not have to be repaid.
This means small business employees get: (1) paid by their employer through July; and additionally, (2) those same employees are getting the coronavirus relief checks from the direct government assistance package [$1,200 per individual ($75k income) /$2,400 per couple ($150k income) plus $500 per child]. This should mitigate a great deal of financial hardship on U.S. workers.
Using the existing FDIC network to backstop and eliminate lender risk was a smart move and will speed up the process.
New York Mayor Bill deBlasio is officially attempting to establish himself as the United States first totalitarian dictator by announcing a revocation of all New York City citizen rights under the first amendment. A stunning move.
“[Government] shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
In a stunning announcement Mayor deBlasio threatens that all religious services will be forcibly closed by city authorities “permanently” if they do not comply with the established dictates of city government. WATCH:
Let us be clear, the government can request, suggest and recommend that faith-based assemblies suspend their services; and in many cases those churches and religious groups may indeed choose to suspend their services. However, under no circumstance, including: war, famine or virus pandemics that could leave only a hand-full of people alive, can the government force the suspension; or punish those who refuse to comply.
Religious worship, including the assembly therein, is enshrined within the first amendment as it carries the first and ultimate essential service. There is absolutely no situation where that right can be removed.
Obviously de Blasio is surrounded by far-left sycophants and members of the totalitarian state. However, there is no legal adviser who would ever inform an official, any official, that they carry the power to supersede the preeminent constitutional right of their citizens.
Worse still is the use of the word “permanently” when de Blasio announces his unconstitutional suspension of rights. The mayor threatens to permanently close buildings? What kind of mindset would even fathom forcing the permanent closure of houses of worship because they defy unconstitutional dictates from the state?
This decree by the New York mayor should alarm everyone.
Accept the removal of the primary right of U.S. citizens and there is no longer a country for coronavirus to infect. This is not a slippery slope; this is akin to voluntarily jumping directly into the abyss….
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