Posted originally on Mar 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The latest diplomatic explosion between Hungary and Ukraine did not come out of nowhere. Hungarian authorities recently detained seven Ukrainian nationals traveling through the country in armored vehicles carrying enormous quantities of cash and gold, reportedly tens of millions of dollars and kilograms of bullion. Kyiv immediately accused Hungary of “state banditism” and hostage-taking, while Budapest launched a money-laundering investigation and announced the individuals who they deem a “Ukrainian gold convoy” would be expelled.
But this incident cannot be understood without the broader economic conflict unfolding between the two countries. It is highly suspicious that these workers were traveling with 40 million in USD, 35 million euros in cash, and 9 kilos of gold. If it were nationals from any other nation then money laundering would not be deemed hostage taking. For Hungary, this is about energy and the oil lifeline that keeps Hungary’s economy running. Hungary and Slovakia rely heavily on crude delivered through the Druzhba pipeline network, one of the main arteries carrying Russian oil into Central Europe. That pipeline has been offline since late January after infrastructure damage in Ukraine halted deliveries, leaving the two countries facing supply shortages and rising economic pressure.
Political statements from Hungarian officials this morning show that the detention of seven Ukrainian citizens in Budapest was part of Hungary’s blackmail and electoral campaign.
Orban's list of demands for Ukraine this morning was particularly telling. This is what typically…
Budapest has repeatedly accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying repairs and effectively imposing an oil blockade. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has openly declared that Hungary will use political and financial pressure to force Ukraine to reopen the pipeline and restore energy flows to Hungarian refineries.
From Hungary’s perspective, the situation is absurd. The European Union demands sanctions against Russia while simultaneously expecting smaller Central European economies to cripple their own energy systems. Hungary was granted exemptions to continue importing Russian oil precisely because its refining infrastructure and geography make sudden alternatives extremely difficult.
When Ukraine halted the pipeline, Hungary and Slovakia responded by suspending diesel exports to Ukraine and threatening broader retaliatory measures, including blocking EU funding packages for Kyiv.
This is where the story becomes politically explosive. The EU leadership and Western media continue to frame the conflict purely through the lens of the war with Russia. But Hungary is looking at it through a far more practical lens: national survival. Hungary was forced to block the 90 billion euro package to Ukraine. Why would a nation agree to provide unconditional funds for a hostile country that is threatening its economy?
“We hope that a certain person in the European Union will not block the €90 billion, or the first tranche from the €90 billion, and our defenders will have weapons. Otherwise, we will give that person’s address to our Armed Forces, to our boys, so they can call him on the phone and speak to him in their own language,” Zelensky said, threatening to provide troops Orban’s number.
“If Ukraine blackmails Hungary, it cannot expect pro-Ukraine decisions in Brussels. Until order is restored, we will use every tool available. We have already stopped fuel deliveries, and we will continue applying pressure until oil supplies resume,” said Orban in a Kossuth interview on March 6. Hungary is giving Ukraine until today “to visit and assess the current state of the Druzhba oil pipeline together with representatives of the MOL group (Hungary’s oil company — ed)” or resume oil transit.
Energy is the foundation of every modern economy. Shut down oil flows, and you are not merely making a geopolitical statement — you are threatening industry, transportation, and the entire domestic energy market. The next step will be crucial. Will Brussells side with Hungary or continue to disregard a member state in favor of propping up Ukraine? This is one of the countless reasons why the European Union is doomed. There is no union, there is no loyalty. The unelected bureaucrats in Brussels are only concerned with beating the drums of war to buy time from the inevitable crash and burn.
Posted originally on CTH on March 8, 2026 | Sundance
Almost all of the corporate news programs today are carbon copies of the same tired talking points, driving home the reality that mainstream U.S. media are concentric circles of the same news feed. Essentially, media reports reporting on media reports, of other organized media reports.
No one seems to be asking any of the core operational and policy questions that can cut to the heart of the matter. ie., “you are doing XXX, what is the intent of this action/policy move, and can you describe in actionable terms what benefit the American people can expect as a result of the anticipated outcome”? Instead, the questions are all hindsight and reactionary. Frankly, the repetition is mind-numbing.
In this Fox interview, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright answers some of the same questions from the CBS interview, sans the arrogant and condescending tone during the questioning. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on March 8, 2026 | Sundance
Energy Secretary Chris Wright appears on Face the Nation to push back against the narrative engineering of CBS’s Margaret Brennan. The video and transcript are below.
[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who joins us this morning from Denver. Good morning to you.
SECRETARY OF ENERGY CHRIS WRIGHT: Thanks for having me Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So 50,000 U.S. troops deployed, six Americans that we know of so far killed in action, civilians stranded. We look at our polling, Mr. Secretary, and we see that this is an unpopular war among the majority of Americans. More than half of them, 56% disapprove. When you speak to energy executives about the scope and duration of American involvement, what do you tell them? How long?
SEC. WRIGHT: I tell them that for 47 years, Iran is warg- waged war against the United States, and they’ve- throughout that 47 years, they’ve tried to undermine the energy development and energy infrastructure of all their neighbors, as they’re doing right now, and it’s time to put it to an end. So yes, we have a, we have a temporary period of elevated energy prices, but it will not be long. In the worst case, this is weeks, this is not months, and it leads to a much better place. It leads to an Iran that’s defanged, that can’t threaten its neighbors, can’t threaten American soldiers and can’t continue to drive up energy prices by making a mess of the Middle East. They can move to commerce, not conflict.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, but you have the moment we are in right now, and as you know, gasoline prices up 14% in the past week. According to AAA, reports the national average is $3.45. We’ve seen oil prices spike. How high do you think oil and gas are going to go?
SEC. WRIGHT: They shouldn’t go much higher than they are here because the world is very well supplied with oil. There’s no energy shortage at all in the Western Hemisphere.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.
SEC. WRIGHT: The United States is a net exporter of oil, a large net exporter of natural gas. But refineries in Asia and Europe are seeing an interruption from the normal crude flows. But there is massive energy stores around the world. What you’re seeing is emotional reactions and fear that this is a long term war. This is not a long term war–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –But–
SEC. WRIGHT: –It’s a temporary movement.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sorry, go ahead, temporary movement.
SEC. WRIGHT: No, I’m saying look, we’ve seen previous administration have done everything they could. They begged, bartered and bribed the Iranian government to stop its nefarious activity, stop its murderous behavior, and it simply hasn’t worked, and now, they’re, they’re expanding missile and drone program that are rapidly growing to protect their desire to build a nuclear weapon. We’re going to cross the threshold where we can’t put them back in the box. Now is the time to end their risk to America and the world.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But as you know, when I ask you about energy prices, this is not a supply problem. You said there’s plenty of supply. The head of the International Energy Agency said, lot of oil, logistics are the problem. It’s dislocation. It’s a serious problem. So what he’s referring to there is being able to actually move it around. I know you said there’s, there’s one vessel that’s gone through the Strait of Hormuz. 20 million barrels per day typically go through it. When do you get back to that level?
SEC. WRIGHT: Oh, I think it will be relatively soon. Of course, I don’t know exactly. All of our military assets right now are focused on ending Iran’s ability to kill their neighbors, threaten American soldiers and threaten ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s going swimmingly well. Their missile launches are down 90%, the drone launches are down over 80% I think in the relatively near term, you’re going to see their capacity so low that we’ll see more normal ship traffic return to the Strait of Hormuz.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So you don’t think Navy escorts of vessels are necessary?
SEC WRIGHT: They might be. They might be. The U.S. is here to do everything we can to keep world oil markets supplied. Yes, if they have some residual–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –When will you make that decision?
SEC. WRIGHT: We’re, we’re in engagement right now with people that want to get tankers moving out of the Gulf. And so, yes, there could be there- early tankers probably will involve some direct protection by the U.S. military, but most important is to defang their ability to threaten these ships.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the president had said he was open to tapping the American stockpile of oil, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but I saw you on other networks this morning, kind of throwing cold water on the idea. You referred to it as depleted. Are you saying America doesn’t have adequate stockpiles?
SEC. WRIGHT: No. America still has over 400 million barrels of oil in our strategic petroleum reserve, and, of course, robust production. We’re, we’re, more than happy to use that if it’s needed. But as you said earlier, it’s a logistics issue. Where do they need oil? They need oil at refineries in Europe and in Asia. And that’s why we took a very pragmatic step. There’s over 100 million barrels of floating Russian crude waiting in line to deliver to China. That’s going to be sold, it’s going to be refined, but that could be one or two months from now. So in a pragmatic way, with no change in U.S. policy towards Russia, we told the Indians, bring that into your refineries. You know, if you, if you’re feeling a shortage of crude, prices are being bid up, draw down that Russian crude stocks that are sitting right offshore.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah. So on that point, the U.S. has temporarily suspended some sanctions to make that Russian oil, you say was already going to be sold anyway, make it available. But doesn’t Russia still financially benefit from that? Why isn’t the U.S. seizing those Russian tankers if they are our adversary?
SEC. WRIGHT: Because right now, because right now, we’re worried about Iran and fixing a 47-year problem there, and we’re worried about American consumers. We want to stop the rise in–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –Russia was helping Iran–
SEC. WRIGHT: –gasoline and diesel prices. Well, there’s been rumors of that. We don’t know if that’s true or not. Certainly, they’ve gotten a strong message from us. But this is oil already on the ocean–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –These Iranian drones have Russian parts in them. The Russians have been buying Iranian drones. That is very well documented, and CBS has confirmed and reported that there was sharing of intelligence. Russia providing intel to target Americans. So how is Russia not part of this?
SEC. WRIGHT: Look, Russia, Russia is expert at causing trouble around the world, so I’m not saying they’re not. I’m saying I don’t- if they’re helping Iran, it’s not working very well, but we’re not helping Russia by just accelerating the sale of their oil to stop the rise of energy prices and keep European and Asian refineries in oil. We’re just doing pragmatic things to get through a short period that will bring in an era of even lower energy prices because a major energy producing region of the world, the Middle East, will no longer have a strong, powerful Iran that can threaten their neighbors, that can threaten the United States of America and was not far away from a nuclear bomb. That’s an–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –How much–
SEC. WRIGHT: –unacceptable scenario. That’s the risk to energy prices was not doing anything.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So when the Qataris say you could see $150 barrel in oil, that’s something America could stomach? President Trump wouldn’t say, I’m done with this war because I can’t stand the political pressure and the American people saying I don’t like what I’m paying at the pump?
SEC. WRIGHT: No, the president’s going to continue to stay focused on ending a 47-year conflict, stay focused on growing the global energy supply. This is actually part of that effort. It does involve a temporary impediment to energy production, but on the other side, it will allow much more energy production and much lower energy prices. But this is not a long term conflict. Most presidents have just thought, they’ll kick the can down the road. The risk is simply too great to kick that increasingly dangerous can down the road.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah.
SEC. WRIGHT: President Trump’s bold leadership is enough’s enough. We’re going to put it to an end.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you about Venezuela. The U.S. deposed Maduro. He’s sitting in a prison. Just this past week, though, we had the interior secretary visiting Venezuela and sitting across from Maduro’s Chief thug, Diosdado Cabello. This is someone who has a $25 million bounty on his head. He ran the prisons, he ran the militias. He was treated as a counterpart to an American official. Is this the same playbook the Trump administration is going to run in Iran, that you will deal with the same regime you’ve been telling me is terrible to deal with for 47 years?
SEC. WRIGHT: We don’t know what the regime will be in place at the, at the end of this conflict, but we do know that regime will not have a massive weapons arsenal, that that regime will no longer be a massive threat to Americans and to the Middle East and to global oil supplies. President Trump is using bold leadership. We can’t change the world at a blink of an eye, but we can steer it in massively positive directions, and yes, Venezuela is a great example of that. Crime in the nearby Trinidad and Tobago has plummeted already from our actions in Venezuela, and President Trump’s insistence that he’s going to work with that our neighbors to reduce drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere. Leadership takes- involves risks, but if you want to drive improvement, you’ve got to be confident, you’ve got to have the right agenda, and you’ve got to have the courage to do it. This president does.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Energy Secretary Wright, thank you for your time this morning. Face the Nation will be back in a minute. Stay with us.
Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance
When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made. However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development.
What follows below is a review of the current energy dynamic, specifically surrounding LNG, against the backdrop of the Iran war with a hindsight review of that previous discussion between Putin and Trump.
What most people are missing in their current analysis was something that took place immediately following that Alaska summit six months ago. Something that did not make any sense until now. {GO DEEP PART I HERE}
It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time:
AUGUST 18, 2025 – Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 export facility, which is sanctioned by the United States, is coming back to life after a year of no activity and is looking for buyers in Asia.
[…] The U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, have effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.
[…] Last year, Russia started shipping LNG from its flagship Arctic LNG 2 project—but not to customers. The shipments were made from the Arctic project to floating storage units either in Russia or in European waters, as potential customers were unwilling to buy the sanctioned LNG. {SOURCE}
In August of 2025, Russia was essentially producing more LNG than they could sell into the available market. Russia was storing the overproduction from Arctic-1 on floating storage units and slowly selling to countries that did not align with the sanctions, specifically China and some Asian buyers. Then suddenly, after the Trump summit, Russia decides to bring Arctic-2 online and produce even more LNG. You can see how this did not make sense.
If they could not even sell all the Arctic-1 LNG output, then why would Russia bring Arctic-2 LNG production online?
That was six months ago.
Suddenly, with the war in Iran being triggered, and with Qatar almost immediately announcing they were shutting down all LNG production, there are dozens of new markets for liquified natural gas. And that current LNG is now worth 50% more than it was when Russia inextricably decided to start producing and storing it.
Apply some hindsight to this timeline. Did Russia know or discover something in August of 2025 that the world would not discover until six months later?
Russia’s behavior in increasing LNG production, then storing that LNG in strategic venues, during a time when there was no reasonable incentive to trigger an LNG output increase, would seem to answer that question in the affirmative.
One thing is certain, all of that previously produced LNG is now worth double what it was when Russia created it, and now the global market is scrambling to get it.
Here is where it gets really interesting….
In October 2025, do you remember me asking why President Trump decided to fly East, to go West to the ASEAN summit in Asia? It just didn’t make sense.
Previously in 2017 when President Trump went to the ASEAN summit, he flew West; Airforce One refueled in Guam. This time in 2025, a few weeks after the meeting with President Putin in Alaska, President Trump flew East, to go West.
Where did he refuel?
That’s correct. President Trump refueled in Qatar, and during the ‘unexpected’ stop he met, yet again, with Qatari leadership.
♦ In May 2025 President Trump traveled to Qatar and had numerous and lengthy conversations, signing multiple strategic defense and trade deals. ♦ In August 2025, President Trump meets with Vladimir Putin, who then begins ramping up production of LNG. ♦ In October 2025, President Trump travels back to Qatar for a curious and unexpected visit.
Less than 36 hours after President Trump began “Operation Epic Fury” Qatar announces they are halting the production of LNG, and as a consequence the price of LNG jumped and a massive supply shift in global trade was created.
The Financial Times – […] The global battle for gas is underway, with Europe on the front lines. Since Wednesday, March 4, at least four liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers – factory ships with large, refrigerated tanks used to transport LNG over long distances – suddenly changed course. Initially headed for France, Belgium or Spain from Africa and the United States, they rerouted for Asia, according to data from the maritime analytics company Kpler. (read more)
MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) – Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday, linking the possible decision to the European Union wanting to ban purchases of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas. (read more)
MOSCOW, March 6 (Reuters)– “Our companies are considering opportunities, without waiting for further restrictions from Europe, to conclude new long-term contracts with our partners and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
Six months ago, following a summit in Alaska with President Trump, President Vladimir Putin began producing and storing LNG at a scale and capacity that did not make sense. Six months later, the now massive Russian inventory is worth twice as much as it was, AND the number of global buyers for the Russian LNG has exploded.
Meanwhile, “while China would suffer from oil outages, a Middle East crisis with disproportionate LNG outages might benefit the PRC. Natural gas accounts for a relatively small share of China’s primary energy consumption, the country enjoys substantial domestic production, and it can tap pipeline imports from Russia, Central Asia, and Myanmar. Significantly, many of the PRC’s competitors or rivals—the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are substantially or even wholly reliant on LNG imports for their natural gas consumption. Dutch TTF natural gas prices are up more than 50 percent against last Friday’s close, fueling concerns of an energy-induced inflationary spike.”
Where is President Trump scheduled to go next?
WASHINGTON/BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) – The U.S. military campaign against Iran has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the back foot ahead of an expected summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, who for the second time in as many months has turned America’s military against one of Beijing’s close partners.
Trump is set to arrive in Beijing at the end of March following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a risky Caracas raid in January and the U.S.-Israeli air war that on Saturday killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former leaders of two countries that have been major oil suppliers for China.
[…] Xi now faces the awkward prospect of feting Trump on the world stage or backing out of the proposed March 31 to April 2 meeting. Beijing has yet to confirm the summit dates. (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance
We like the deep weeds, most do not. The geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. confrontation with Iran are vast and complicated; however, to encapsulate one of the most interesting dynamics consider this ‘tldr’ statement to open the discussion with your friends: Right now, Russia is like Amazon during COVID-19.
What follows is not me saying President Trump and President Putin are holding nightly conversations, discussing steps or details, or even obliquely coordinating measures as Trump eliminates the generational threat posed by Iran.
However, I am saying that given the nature of all contact and communication between Trump and Putin, including extensive contacts by their representative emissaries, both Putin and Trump are well aware of each downstream effect from the Iranian confrontation.
Two days after the U.S./Israel began Operation Epic Fury, President Vladimir Putin said Russia should consider shutting down oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments to the EU in advance of the previously scheduled April deadline date when the EU would stop purchases.
♦ First, remember ‘force majeure’ contract nullification is in place for every producer, supplier and transporter in the middle east. Second, with shipments from the Gulf of Oman greatly reduced, LNG prices along with oil prices are increasing rapidly. The result – ships filled with oil and LNG currently on the water are diverting in real time as international bidding for the content of the ships take place.
If Putin stops selling LNG to Europe, and Europe cannot get LNG from the Gulf of Oman, and China/Asia are LNG dependent (not exporting), then where is Europe going to get the LNG to replace what Russia will no longer provide?
Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.
[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context? Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]
The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering. Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.
Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position. The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.
Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.
[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context? Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]
The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering. Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.
Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position. The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.
[Go back to the sidenote above. Without question President Trump already knew that an LNG supply restriction from the middle east would disproportionately hurt Europe. Both President Trump and President Putin would understand this geopolitically obvious fact/reality.]
If Europe now has to purchase more LNG from America (at higher prices) President Trump’s leverage over Europe increases. If both oil and LNG prices increase substantially, the price of oil/LNG currently on the water increases.
[SIDENOTE #2 – Previously the EU confiscated their holdings of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, value €210 billion held in Euroclear and another €50 billion from other G-7 countries; total €260 billion. From those seized assets the EU created a €90 billion loan scheme to Ukraine with no repayment mechanism, because the EU predicts Russia will be forced to pay reparations for war and the negotiated settlement will deduct the €90 billion loan scheme from the balance.
Hungary, a Trump ally, is currently blocking the transfer of funds; but this payment scheme -created by the EU holding the assets- underpins why the EU will not permit the conflict to end without their approval. END SIDENOTE]
♦ To increase distribution of oil/gas “currently on the water” President Trump and Secretary Bessent have dropped the sanctions against Russian oil and LNG. India and Southeast Asia, not coincidentally both with new U.S. free trade agreements, are suddenly bidding customers for previously sanctioned oil/gas.
Here it is important to note that ‘sanctioned’ oil and gas sales were done in the transactional currencies of the selling and buying country (see BRICS). However non-sanctioned oil/gas, traditional OPEC market oil/gas products, are bought and sold using petrodollars. If Russia is suddenly allowed to sell to OPEC market customers, then petrodollars will likely back the transaction. Who wins, Putin (higher prices) & Trump (leverage and petrodollar). Who loses, the EU.
Now, you know how much I love timelines to explain things…. So consider:
On August 15, 2025, Vladimir Putin and President Trump met in Alaska. One of the key points that followed the meeting was both Trump and Putin discussing a realignment of strategic interests surrounding energy development.
On August 18, 2025, three days after the Alaska meeting:
Two days ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the easing of sanctions against Russian oil/LNG exports, specifically toward Asia in order to relieve some of the global supply constraints. {SOURCE} Yesterday, Moscow announced the redirection of Russian oil/LNG exports to Asia {SOURCE}.
“Our companies are considering opportunities, without waiting for further restrictions from Europe, to conclude new long-term contracts with our partners and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
♦ Before February 28, European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) liquified natural gas traded around 35 euros per megawatt hour. As of March 6, TTF settled at 52.81 euros, a 50 percent monthly surge in the value of LNG to Europe.
Asian Japan Korea Marker (JKM) spot cargoes, the benchmark LNG price assessment, are trading above $20 per million BTU, with Bangladesh paying $28.28 for emergency deliveries.
The difference between Russia selling LNG to hostile Europe or selling Russian LNG to friendly Asia at post gulf crisis premiums is the widest it has been since the post pandemic (2022) ‘Build Back Better” energy crisis.
Russia supplied 13.8 million tonnes of LNG to Europe in 2025. The EU is phasing Russian gas out: short-term contracts banned beginning in April, full LNG ban by year end 2025, pipeline gas fully banned by 2027.
Russia is not fighting the EU bans; Russia is finding new customers at higher prices. Every tonne Russia redirects to Asia before the EU ban was scheduled to begin creates a potential long-term contract at a premium price with a buyer who will not legislate Russia out of the relationship.
Qatar and all shippers and suppliers declared force majeure after Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan facility on March 2, 2026. Approximately 20% of global LNG went offline. Asian buyers are now bidding against Europe for every tanker “on the water.” Russia has a lot of supply on the water and the ability to put a lot more into the market quickly.
Hormuz is closed, at least temporarily, through forced reinsurance withdrawal triggered by the U.K (Lloyds insurance market). And Russia, the one major energy exporter whose supply chains run through neither the Gulf nor the Strait, is the only non-western producer that can deliver to Asia without navigating a war zone.
Right now, Russia is to energy supplies for Asian customers as Amazon was to U.S. consumers during COVID. Both selling to an isolated and captive customer base, who were regulated out of options.
SUMMARY:
(1) Upon reelection President Trump told all U.S. energy providers to “drill baby drill” and maximize energy production. Trump then deregulated the industry for maximum efficiency: Secretaries Burgum (Interior), Wright (Energy) and Zeldin (EPA).
(2) Trump then meets with Putin in Alaska Aug 15, 2025. Three days later, Aug 18, 2025, Putin restarts Russia’s flagship Arctic project, the LNG export facility via the Northern Route to Asia.
(3) President Trump then signs contracts with Finland for the urgent start of Arctic icebreaking ship manufacturing in the USA and emphasizes the prior conversation about taking over Greenland which infuriates the Danes and EU.
(4) President Trump then triggers the Venezuela operation, captures Nicholas Maduro and -in addition to other benefits- forms a new strategic oil development relationship with the interim Venezuela government. Russia stays silent.
(5) President Trump then triggers Operation Epic Fury against Iran; completely changing the geopolitical landscape that surrounds energy partnerships. Energy flows through the Gulf of Oman are impacted.
(6) President Trump then removes specific sanctions against Russia permitting Russian oil and LNG to be sold (in petrodollars) into the Asian market. Meanwhile, the European Union is forced to increase LNG purchases from the United States.
Sure, it could all be just coincidence… or not. One thing is certain, the FIVE-EYES opposition do not think all of this downstream benefit that flows to Russia and the USA is coincidental. The FIVE-EYES opposition see all of this as a strategic realignment between the USA and Russia, and they are going to do everything in their power to stop it.
Now does this sudden news story make sense?
You see that "WP" on the end of it? That's Washington Post.
WaPo is the outlet for the direct CIA shaping narratives. There is usually no truth to the statements as narrated.
The CIA, like the other members of the 5 eyes, wants maximum conflict with Russia at all times. https://t.co/kjiTTlar6A
(Reuters) – “Russia is ready to divert oil to India to offset Middle East supply disruptions, with about 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude in vessels near Indian waters and able to arrive within weeks, an industry source with direct knowledge told Reuters. The source declined to say where the non‑Russian fleet cargoes were originally headed but said they could deliver to India within weeks, giving refiners rapid relief.”
The U.S. and Israel have been targeting deep underground missile sites within Iran, with strong success. Iranian counterstrikes, missile & drone launches are down 80 to 90 percent according to Pentagon officials.
Additionally, the Israeli military has reported they dismantled an underground bunker system in Tehran used by regime leadership. Originally the bunker was used by slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei underneath the leadership compound in central Tehran. The bunker was targeted by 50 Israeli fighter jets and subsequently destroyed.
President Trump announced via Truth Social that he will not seek any terms with Iran other than unconditional surrender.
Meanwhile, in a somewhat predictable move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced the U.S. will lift some sanctions on Russian oil exports in order to mitigate shortfalls. India will be permitted to purchase additional Russian oil for use in their refineries. The gasoline end products will then be sold into the market.
BESSENT: “President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded.
To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.
India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of U.S. oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage. (more)
Strategically, it has always appeared that President Trump wanted to remove the sanctions against Russia as part of a negotiated peace deal with Ukraine. However, the intransigence of Ukraine and the EU had blocked that move. I would anticipate at some date the U.S. will use the opportunity of global need as a justification to permit more Russian oil to be sold into Western markets.
This approach will not make Ukraine or the EU happy; however, it could be structured to put petrodollars back in control of Russian oil sales. That approach would further weaken China and the BRICS assembly who have been purchasing energy products in domestic exchange currencies.
The U.S., Venezuela and Russia could increase output and replace the missing oil production from the middle east region. This would stabilize markets. Although, the politics of that approach would face stiff opposition.
What seems very likely is that Bessent, Rubio and Trump have a plan. If there’s one person in U.S. politics who understands how to use oil to financially mitigate any geopolitical impacts, it’s President Trump.
Keep an eye on Russia. Ignore the western media narratives and look for direct source information on Russian oil activity.
Posted originally on CTH on March 5, 2026 | Sundance
I’m working on a deep explainer for the behavior of China as it relates to ongoing U.S. strategic military operations. More to come soon. In the interim, Carl Higbie from Newsmax outlines how China is spending domestically inside the USA in order to try and stimulate opposition to the Iran confrontation. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on March 5, 2026 | Sundance
Sometimes you have to sip coffee slowly, while taking in the landscape.
About a month ago President Donald J Trump bombed Caracas, engaged the U.S. military with a direct firefight against Venezuela military & security forces, then snatched regime dictator Nicholas Maduro out of the country to face criminal charges in the United States.
Yesterday, Maduro’s replacement, President Delcy Rodriquez, stood on the steps to the Venezuela presidential office and publicly thanked Interior Secretary Doug Bergum for the kindness and support of President Donald Trump.
That reality represents a level of hemispheric ‘ultimate boss’ that boggles the mind. But wait, it gets better. There’s video (prompted):
Before going further to current events, let us remind ourselves of a few details.
Sandwiched between the Venezuela Maduro operation and the recent Operation Epic Fury in Iran, approximately three weeks ago, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth convened a gathering in Washington of all the defense chiefs and senior military officials from 34 Western Hemisphere countries.
As most of you will remember, securing the national security of the entire Western Hemisphere, was outlined in the national defense strategy document [SEE HERE] released by President Trump. In addition to setting the priorities for the United States focus, the report details the Trump administration perspective on the world as broken down into specific regions. The report is a brutally honest review of the current state of geopolitical benefits, risks and threats as they pertain to vital U.S. interests. The report outlines a critically renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere.
Now, back to Secretary Bergum’s visit.
At the same time as Interior Secretary Bergum is meeting with key government and private sector partners to discuss strategic mineral development (ie. deconflict dependency on China via independent development), oil production for U.S. hemispheric security (Iran output offsets), Venezuela announced the transfer of 1,000 kilos (more than a ton) of gold reserves for sale on the U.S. market {SOURCE}.
Venezuela needs stability. Hemispheric Boss President Trump wants Venezuela to have stability. Venezuela needs dollars and both the coordinated sale of Venezuela oil and Venezuela gold (47 tonnes in strategic reserve) will provide those dollars to retain stability and seed economic growth projects.
This coordinated approach secures the economic future of Venezuela and simultaneously secures the energy security of the Western Hemisphere while geopolitical operations continue in other regions, like the confrontation with Iran.
In essence, President Trump is isolating the Western Hemisphere from collateral economic damage that is likely to happen as the U.S. begins to take down the leading sponsors of global conflict. As things are in flux, the close and controlled partnership with Venezuela can offset/mitigate a lot of chaos.
While the ongoing Iran confrontation happens in the middle east, and in combination with the priority of the National Security Strategy, President Trump then convenes a meeting of hemispheric leaders in Florida this weekend.
The Latin-America meeting in Doral is being called the “Shield of the Americas Summit.” The Trump administration has made it a priority to assert dominance over the Western Hemisphere, where China previously built influence through massive loans and expansive trade.
Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced President Trump will host heads of state from “Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and maybe some others as well.”
So, let’s put it all together.
President Trump proactively secured the border, targeted narcotraffickers, confronted narcoterrorists, targeted Mexican drug cartel leadership, leveraged the DOJ to indict regional actors, pushed China out of control in the Panama Canal, took out Nicholas Maduro, took control of Venezuela oil production – both for the security of the U.S. and benefit of the Venezuelan people, removed the discounted oil benefit for China and reasserted stability in the Western hemisphere.
Then, with all that in place, he turned toward Iran…. but, proactively planned for a ‘Shield of the Americas Summit’ before the Iran operation began and scheduled it while Operation Epic Fury continues.
Jumpin’ ju-ju bones. That outline and timeline is not supposition; it is what took place.
And, yeah, we just watched “interim” Venezuela President Delcy Rodriquez react to what she is witnessing happening all around her.
Accepting all of this, I would not be in the least surprised to see President Rodriquez in Doral this weekend.
This my friends, is a level of strategic boss maneuvering beyond anything we have ever witnessed before.
[…] – “Interior Secretary Doug Burgum landed in Venezuela on Wednesday to begin talks about a potential rare earth minerals partnership, just weeks after the U.S. arrested former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
FOX Business exclusively joined Burgum on the trip. President Donald Trump‘s administration views Venezuela’s untapped resources as a potential alternative to relying on China for critical minerals, FOX Business has learned.
While in Venezuela, Burgum will also help expand the relationship between U.S. oil companies and the Venezuelan government. The secretary will meet with the current Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez to continue the growing relationship between the two countries.
Burgum is the first member of Trump’s Cabinet to leave the country since the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Saturday.” (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on March 4, 2026 | Sundance
Force Majeure is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, epidemic, or sudden legal change prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract.
People would be well advised to wait a few days when announcements are made before jumping to immediate conclusions. The announcement by Qatar Energy of a force majeure notification did not originate from Qatar’s inability to produce contractual LNG supplies…..
…. two days prior to this announcement, India’s top gas importer Petronet LNG Ltd issued a force majeure notice to Qatar Energy and local buyers because its LNG tanker ships were unable to reach the Ras Laffan load port due to the crisis in the Middle East. Without ships arriving to take the LNG Qatar Energy cannot keep producing.
Qatar Energy operates 14 liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains with a total annual production capacity of 77 million tonnes {SOURCE}. If ships don’t reach the terminals, there’s no need for Qatar Energy to keep pumping and liquifying from well heads. It’s a downstream issue.
Bahrain made the same announcement for their refined aluminum exports {SOURCE}. Indonesian company Chandra Asri made the same announcement for petrochemicals {SOURCE}. Chevron made the same announcement two days ago after Israel shut down the Leviathan natural gas field {SOURCE}. Thus, we see the ramifications for the entire region around the Iran conflict zone and the downstream destinations (Asia and Europe) for energy products therein.
Dutch shipping company Maersk has also suspended operation for cargo container ships cancelling all bookings between the Indian subcontinent—India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka—and the Upper Gulf. {SOURCE} German shipping group Hapag-Lloyd made the same decision.
These are not decisions being made due to maritime insurance or reinsurance rates or availability. These are decisions being made by private corporations that go beyond their actuarial risk. They simply don’t want to operate in a region where there is the potential for loss of life or cargo.
This is not solely an insurance issue and people should pause before offering analysis that only considers the financial aspect.
MAERSK -Maersk announced on Wednesday that it is temporarily suspending most cargo reservations in and out of Iraq as security worries mount throughout the Gulf.
The business said that the ban applies to shipments involving many regional nations, including the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
Maersk said that the measure would stay in effect until further notice. The firm did not disclose any more information on how long the disruption will endure or the scope of the operating effect.
The decision comes as increased tensions and military action in the Gulf area have prompted worries about the safety of maritime routes and logistical operations, hurting commerce flows via many Gulf nations. (LINK)
Susan Kokinda and the Lyndon LaRouche network give their perspective on the British reaction to the U.S. strikes against Iran. The analysis has some value from a review of the historic relationship of the British imperialist policy toward matters of foreign entanglement and the control mechanisms that have historically flowed from the U.K
As a consequence of British government policy much of the Kokinda analysis accurately touches on the root cause of U.K response. However, the emphasis on the modern UK government as the lead of a global control network is not always as severe or complicated as the Lyndon LaRouche network would espouse.
Prior to visiting the White House, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz had just returned from China and gave a press conference in Germany saying Germans need to “work harder” and “ditch the four-day week” to compete.
Merz visit to Shenzhen shocked him, and he is right to be rattled by the cold indifference of Chairman Xi Jinping. This was Merz first visit to meet Chairman Xi in person. A cold and productivity focused Merz just met an even colder and more productivity focused industrial giant.
Merz met the industrial dragon and returned home visibly shook. The Chancellor thought he represented an apex industrial nation. However, he experienced something far more industrial than he ever imagined.
As noted by Nina Schick:“Take Germany’s famous auto industry, 5% of GDP, 800,000 jobs, but losing ground fast. VW’s market share in China has plunged from 24% to 15% in four years. Chinese brands doubled their European market share in 2025 and now outsell Mercedes on the continent. Germany lost 120,000 industrial jobs last year. And cars are just the most visible example.
But it’s not just competition. Germany has some of the highest industrial energy prices in the world, nearly triple what the US pays. After shutting down nuclear and losing cheap Russian gas via Nord Stream, Berlin built its first LNG terminal in 194 days. Now 96% of the LNG arriving at those terminals comes from the US. (That LNG is even more important in light of events in the Gulf….)
The US is Germany’s second-largest trading partner (€240 billion in two-way trade last year.) German auto exports to the US fell 18% in 2025 under tariffs. Merz cannot afford a trade war with Washington. Today, he watched Trump threaten to cut off all trade with Spain, while sitting next to him in the Oval Office. He backed him up.
Now look at how Merz is positioning on Iran. Spain blocked the US from using its bases. Sánchez called the strikes “unjustified.” Starmer hesitated before eventually allowing UK bases for “defensive” strikes. Merz is the first EU leader invited to the White House for a tête-à-tête with Trump.
Days before, he said legal assessments under international law “achieve relatively little” and that now is “not the time to lecture allies.” Compare that to Sánchez insisting Spain’s agreement with the US “must operate within the framework of international law.” From a German chancellor, Merz’s position is seismic.
And none of this is separable from home. Germany’s economy is in its fourth year of industrial contraction. An aging population, a shrinking workforce, sky-high welfare costs, and an immigration debate that’s handing the AfD seats on a plate. Merz needs the US relationship, because it’s one of the levers he has left to keep the economy blowing in the right direction.
All of this points to a Germany that’s understood its critical vulnerabilities and is pursuing a hard-nosed realpolitik in response. To stay industrially competitive, they need American LNG. They need access to US compute and critical hardware. They need EU member states to spend on defense: something Trump has been remarkably effective at unleashing.
The result is an astonishingly pro-Trump German chancellor. In a country where only about 15% of the population views Trump favorably. The question isn’t whether Merz has realistically assessed Germany’s vulnerabilities (he’s starting to see the bigger picture). It’s whether this wins or loses him votes at home. And on that, my guess is it won’t. {LINK}
Fredrich Merz thought he was an apex predator, until he met Xi Jinping.
Suddenly, Merz looks at the unpredictable Trump, an apex predator who swims around Chairman Xi as if it’s just another boring Tuesday, with an entirely new perspective.
Chancellor Merz realizes that this rather unorthodox American President likely possesses the only qualified skillset that can deal with a REAL apex predator like Xi.
Fredrich Merz dismounts his EU high horse and uppishness turns into respect.
Posted originally on CTH on March 3, 2026 | Sundance
♦ First blow, the Trump tariffs hit Beijing hardest. ♦ Second blow, the Beijing tentacle on the Panama Canal is severed. ♦ Third blow, global tariff threats changed the risk dynamic for southeast Asia countries who acted as transnational shippers for China. ♦ Fourth blow, cheap sanctioned oil from Venezuela was cut-off. ♦ Now, the fifth blow; cheap, sanctioned Iranian oil is disrupted.
As noted by Politico: Following USA military strikes, “ships have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran — a critical shipping lane for Gulf nations to export oil to Asia. China in 2025 received about half of its imported oil from the six Gulf countries that rely on the strait. Other large crude oil producers in the region — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — transport almost all their crude exports through the geographic bottleneck.”
It’s not just a factor of oil flow, but also the price that China will ultimately end up having to pay. Beijing was buying oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia at steep discounts because their purchases were skirting western sanctions.
With Iranian oil production now no longer a market option, China will seek to replace their needs with more Russian alternative. However, that diversion means the oil India was purchasing from Russia will come at a higher price, and the refined final product that was exported by India will arrive to the European Union carrying an additional cost.
Simultaneously, Vladimir Putin was asked about Russia’s lack of military support to Iran in response to the U.S. military action, to wit the Russian president noted the technical terms of their joint military agreements did not include Russia’s immediate involvement. In shorthand, Russia is busy and is not getting involved.
Russia was/is partially dependent on receiving military supplies from Iran in exchange for oil transfers. The military component is reported to include drones from Iran for use in the Ukraine conflict. Now that exchange profile is shuttered.
Taking Iran’s malign influence off the geopolitical chessboard is beginning to surface in major challenges to the BRICS assembly (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Russia, China and India are impacted directly.
The BRICS nations were skirting western oil sanctions by trading the commodity outside the petrodollar structure. However, President Trump now controls the flow of oil from Venezuela, and his administration controls the currency in which it is sold.
With Iranian oil removed from the non-petro supply chain, the only remaining non-petro oil producer is Russia – who is simultaneously hit with a loss in military hardware support. China may end up as a larger oil customer to Russia, but at what price and in what payment structure.
With global oil supplies in a state of flux, and with the USA in control of the oil flow from Venezuela, North America is certainly in the best position for minimal energy disruption.
Asia is heavily dependent on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the majority of Europe has already shut themselves off from Russian oil production, putting themselves in a position of dependency to the global markets. The short-term ramifications of this oil disruption hit China, Southeast Asia, Japan and Europe particularly hard.
“OPEC+ countries affirmed on Sunday that they would boost oil production starting in April by 206,000 barrels daily — a modest increase intended to dampen the war’s effect on prices down the road. The majority of the increase would come from Saudi Arabia and Russia.” {SOURCE}
All of a sudden, this happens: Zelenskyy not to be trusted?
“Ukraine is under pressure to let the EU inspect a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, as the two pro-Kremlin countries accuse Kyiv of overstating the impact of an attack by Moscow — despite what Ukrainian officials say is evidence of extensive destruction,” the report said.
According to five diplomats and EU officials who spoke to the FT, even pro‑Ukrainian governments within the European Union and the European Commission have also asked Ukraine to permit a delegation to inspect the pipeline. Two sources told the newspaper that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requested access for EU experts during her visit to Kyiv on Feb. 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The request, according to the sources, was refused.
As tensions escalated, the EU’s ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, reportedly asked through the presidential office for permission to inspect the damaged pipeline herself or to allow visits by other EU diplomats. Those requests were denied for security reasons, the sources said.” (link)
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