Gold & Connecting the Dots


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

GCNYNF D Tech 11 6 24

COMMENT: Marty, Socrates is truly astonishing. You also called a high in gold and said this was indicating a Trump victory, for he is anti-war, so gold would decline, not rally. Every market has performed as you laid out, and I can now see how it all dovetails to support the political forecast. You are teaching us what nobody has ever done—connecting the dots. There is no random walk. You have proven that.

I can’t wait for this weekend. I agree. Nobody has accomplished anything close to you.

HK

REPLY: There is indeed no random walk. That is the explanation given by people who cannot see the world as a whole. Socrates has taught me a lot, as have my clients. If I did not have clients worldwide, I probably would never have seen the dots to connect. I think we are expanding the capacity for the virtual attendees. For those looking to attend, the hotel is fully sold out. You probably could squeeze in, but you must book at another hotel. Even the visitors to this site has nearly doubled today.

Natalie Winters On New Report Suggesting Military Intel Can Use Lethal Force On Americans


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Nov 4, 2024 at 8:30 pm EST

Natalie Winters Highlights The ‘Deep State Avengers’ Assembling To Stop Trump At All Costs


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Nov 4, 2024 at 8:30 pm EST

LEFT Planning Major Uprising if Trump Wins to Force Him To Call Out National Guard


Posted Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

This was the riot when Trump won in 2016. There is even concern that they might try to assassinate Trump if he wins. He better keep some private bodyguards. These Neocons have seized power and will not simply go quietly. There are schemes rumored that the Transition Integrity Project, dominated by the LEFTISTS, will stage a major riot in DC if Trump wins far worse than in 2017. They intend to force him to call out the National Guard and then claim that is proof he is a dictator. They plan to block out everything Trump tries to do to paralyze the country. There is no more America.

To the best of my knowledge, the updated U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) directive does not authorize federal troops to use lethal force against citizens, contrary to social media posts but the subtle changes include threat to national security in the revision of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, under the Posse Comitatus Actit is illegal for military personnel to use force against people in the United States unless for self-defense or where “under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress.” The National Guard is the exception. If the Civil War broke out, chances are nobody would pay attention to this statute, but it could be argued that they were acting in self-defense.

  1. Focus of the 2016 Version

The 2016 version of the directive did not mention the use of lethal force. Instead, it focused on:

  • Civil liberties protections: Ensuring strict oversight for operations involving U.S. citizens.
  • Intelligence collection restrictions: Limiting when and how U.S. person’s information (USPI) could be collected.
  • Privacy safeguards: Protecting privacy rights and preventing unauthorized data collection.

The 2016 directive centered around intelligence gathering, with no mention of lethal force

  1. New Provisions in the 2024 Version

The 2024 update introduces a dramatic shift, particularly regarding domestic operations. Section 3.3.a.(2)(c) now explicitly permits lethal force in cases of imminent threats or national security emergencies, provided the action complies with legal oversight, specifically DoDD 5210.56, which governs the use of deadly force by DoD personnel.

Home Sales Reach 14-Year Low in the US


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

RealEstate

The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.

Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.

Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.

Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.

Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%

I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

The October Jobs Report – USA


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Jobs

The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.

Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.

The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.

1 Big Government

So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.

The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.

Jeffrey Sacks – Truth About Neocons & Ukraine


Posted originally on Nov 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

The Coming Capital Controls


Posted originally on Nov 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Capital_Controls Index 2024

Next week, those attending the World Economic Conference and Virtual Plus can access this report from your portal. It concerns the prospect of capital controls that governments routinely implement during periods of war to prevent capital flight.  This also includes some other capital controls imposed for other reasons. It is a guide to what to expect from our claimed “representative” Republics that represent only the self-interest of those in power and never the population.

This report will be available to non-attendees and non-virtual Attendees for $300 after the conference.

Hungary Attends Joint Security Summit with Russia, Belarus, and Syria


Posted originally on Nov 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

Map Hungary

The European Union and NATO are questioning Hungary’s allegiance after it sent a foreign minister to a joint security summit with Russia, Syria, and Belarus. Hungary’s position in both the EU and NATO has repeatedly been undermined as the current government has attempted to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The Hungarian government never wastes an opportunity to shame us,” said Nathalie Loiseau, a French MEP from the Renew Europe group who sits on the Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “In French, we say ‘when you cross boundaries, there are no limits,’” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general. “Extremely troubling,” he added.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has taken numerous trips to Moscow amid the ongoing war. He used his last trip to discuss Hungary’s ongoing fuel war with Ukraine. “Hungary’s secure and affordable gas supply is not possible” without cooperation with Russia, “whether we like it or not.” The EU sided with Ukraine over Hungary, further pushing the nation away from the alliance.

President Viktor Orban infamously met with Putin while acting as the president of the Council of the EU, solidifying his position as an enemy of his own bloc. Yet, the European Union is far from an actual union. Those at the top in Brussels make the decisions, and everyone is expected to adhere blindly. Viktor Orbán of Hungary has long fallen out of favor with the European Union for opposing the war in Ukraine.

Orban has voted to withhold aid from Ukraine in the past. He recently came out and accused the EU of installing a puppet government in Poland. He no longer trusts his European allies, and the feeling is mutual. Yet, there is no current method for banishing a member from the European Union.

The curious aspect of this is that Hungary feels it needs security. From whom?

Categories:EUROPEAN UNION

US GDP Rose 2.8% in Q3


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

GDP 3

According to data provided by the Commerce Department, the US economy grew 2.8% during Q3, beneath expectations of a 3.1% increase. GDP has slowed from the 3% posting during Q2.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 3.7% last quarter, marking the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023. The US federal government’s spending is factored into growth, albeit another reason why these data points never provide a true indicator of economic growth in the long term. The government managed to increase spending by an astounding 9.7% — 14.9% of which was spent on defense.

Personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.5%, providing a bit of good news for Fed who looks and causing optimism about a rate drop during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Core PCE remained at 2.2%.

Consumer spending, one-third of US GDP, has risen, but Americans are spending more on less. The government is not releasing the true figures or painting an accurate picture of the economy. Sure, consumer spending is up, but personal savings fell to 4.8% from 5.2%. Americans are spending more, but they are also falling into debt.

The US remains the safe haven for international capital. We saw a 5.87% increase in capital flows to the US on a monthly basis based on the Global Market Watch, and Socrates predicts it will continue to increase.