Russia Invests Heavily in Egypt – Sun City – Nuclear Power


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Russia poured $7 billion into Egypt in 2021 to create the Russian Industrial Zone (RIZ), the nation’s first industrial zone outside of Russia. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi developed a relationship with Russia in 2014 amid the Crimea crisis and the Ukrainian Revolution. Russia has been investing heavily in Egypt ever since and is currently pouring $4.6 billion into Egypt’s Suez Canal zone to create “Sun City,” an industrial zone covering 2,000 hectares.

Around 20% of all world trade moves through the Suez Canal. This is extremely strategic for Russian manufacturing and trade, and also explains Egypt’s refusal to support the West in its mission to escalate the Israel-Palestine war. Sun City is expected to bring 35,000 jobs to the Egyptian economy.

Egypt has become Africa’s leading destination for investment. It dethroned South Africa in 2017 to claim the title. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) stated that Egypt “supported by a large increase in Chinese investment across light manufacturing industries and wide-ranging economic reforms, such as financial liberalisation, which is basically the establishment of higher interest rates that equate the demand for, and the supply of savings.” China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) spiked 75% in 2017, providing Egypt with a large boost. The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have also invested heavily in Egypt, especially in real estate and development.

There is nothing that the West can provide to Egypt to surpass what Arab and Eastern nations have done for its economy. The Egypt-Russia Trade and Investment Summary (YTD) 2022 indicates that Moscow and Cairo will continue to strengthen its relationship. A key to this report is that Russia is helping Egypt produce its first nuclear power plant, financing 85% of the project. El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant will be positioned 320 kilometers from Cairo. But this deal initially began in 2015 when Russia promised to finance the project, and signed preliminary contracts in December 2017. The total project is set to cost $28.7 billion. Egypt will repay Russia the remaining 15% in installments with a repayment period of 22 years and an interest rate of 3%.

So basically, the plant will become Russia’s nuclear power in Africa and among the Arab world. They are anticipating completion in 2026 and it is safe to say that the West is going to do everything in its power to prevent this from happening. Look at the map above to see how strategic the positioning of this plant will be for Russia in not just Africa and the Arab nations but a stone’s throw away from Europe as well.

Sunday Trivia – Did You Ever Notice The Lyrics


Posted originally on the CTH on September 24, 2023 | Sundance 

R.E.M is a band from Georgia.  This song was written in 1987.  Did you ever notice the lyrics?

That’s great, it starts with an earthquake,
Birds and snakes, an aeroplane
Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

Eye of a hurricane,
Listen to yourself churn
World serves its own needs,
Regardless of your own needs.
Feed it up a knock, speed,
Grunt no, strength no.
Ladder structure clatter with fear of height, down height.
Wire in a fire, represent the seven games
In a government for hire
And a combat site.
Left her, wasn’t coming in a hurry with the furries
Breathing down your neck.
Team by team reporters baffled, Trump, tethered crop.
Look at that low plane!
Fine then.
Uh oh, overflow, population, common group, but it’ll do.
Save yourself,
Serve yourself.
World serves its own needs,
Listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
Reverent in the right
Right.
You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
Light, feeling pretty psyched.

It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

Neuralink Brain Implant Trials Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease RE-Posted Sep 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Elon Musk’s Neuralink received approval to begin a six-year trial to study the effects of brain-computer interface (BCI). A specialized surgical robot will be used to implant the devices into participants’ brains. The company’s mission: “Create a generalized brain interface to restore autonomy to those with unmet medical needs today and unlock human potential tomorrow.” Participants in the first trial must have a disability such as blindness, quadriplegia, paraplegia, deafness, or major limb amputation. Permitting those with disabilities to live a normal life seems noble, but Musk has stated he dreams of expanding the Neuralink’s availability to everyone.

The non-human trials failed miserably, resulting in 1,500 dead animals since 2018. Some past employees have criticized Musk for rushing his research, but not illegal acts were committed as it is common, if not expected, for at least some animal test subjects to die. Numerous errors could have been avoided if not for human error, according to those familiar with the studies.

“The PRIME Study (short for Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface) – a groundbreaking investigational medical device trial for our fully-implantable, wireless brain-computer interface (BCI) – aims to evaluate the safety of our implant (N1) and surgical robot (R1) and assess the initial functionality of our BCI for enabling people with paralysis to control external devices with their thoughts,” Neuralink states on its website. It would be an unbelievable feat if this device gave someone the ability to walk or see for the first time. It would make all the testing worthwhile. Musk stated himself that the chip will work. “As miraculous as it may sound, we’re confident that it is possible to restore full body functionality to someone who has a severed spinal cord.”

However, Musk has loftier goals and said that the Neuralink will be for everyone. Musk stated that he personally plans to have a brain chip installed once available. Neralink is not beholden to shareholders as Musk owns the company outright. The company claims it will not sell data to third parties. However, Neuralink’s third-party affiliates, regulatory boards, and research partners will have access. Time will tell how this six-year trial goes, as I expect we will hear much more about the new technology once the trial begins.

AI – The Reality of Complexity


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Posted Sep 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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COMMENT: You are always ahead of the curve. Today AI is the buzzword – with most of the AI being machine learning, where you were developing Socrates with real AI in the 70s and 80s.

Lynne

REPLY: I fooled around with neural nets when they first began. The problem with this approach is that you expect a machine to develop a human instinct as if you are playing a poker game. It is a gut feeling you might have about a person to alert you if he is bluffing or real. That cannot be coded, nor will a computer with machine learning be able to acquire such a “gut feeling,” which is an entirely different game than chess.

Socrates is NOT a neutral net. I had to teach it how to trade. I put my instincts into the system. Creating a neural net, throwing in all the data, and praying it will learn how to trade is more or less like a monkey throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal regarding what stock to buy in a bull market. Raven, a six-year-old chimpanzee, became the 22nd most successful money manager in the USA after choosing her stocks by throwing darts at a list of 133 internet companies. The chimp created her own index, dubbed MonkeyDex, and in 1999 delivered a 213 percent gain, outperforming more than 6,000 professional brokers on Wall Street.

Attempts to use a neutral net with machine learning have not beaten Raven in funds management. The level of complexity is monumental. On top of all of that, it will never discover the nonlinear structure of the world by dumping in a chunk of data and praying for the best.

AI & Self-Awareness


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Aug 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You do not see AI as actually becoming conscious? There are so many claiming that is the future. Are you hiring programmers in machine language?

LK

ANSWER: Let me explain something. Most generative AI models today are being trained and run in the cloud. These models are language-oriented, generating text. They are often at least 10 times to 100 times bigger than older AI models. ChatGPT is learning from the question people are asking. While this is impressive to the average person, there is no real economic value other than adding to the search function. This has resulted in a boom along with an insatiable appetite for running large language models at this point in time.

Even dogs have personalities. My little one will take a pill covered in peanut butter. The older one takes the peanut butter and spits out the pill. Just like having two children, they are not the same. What causes one to have a personality that is different from the other? I’m afraid I have to disagree with this theory that if you throw in enough data, suddenly, the computer will become self-aware. My little dog was just 11 weeks old. She is still exploring her environment, displaying curiosity, so she has a distinct personality BEFORE acquiring knowledge of her environment. This PROVES beyond a shadow of a doubt that this theory of a computer becoming self-aware is just nonsense. We do not teach our children how to be self-aware. They are born that way.

There is something there that creates the personality, and it appears from birth in dogs and humans. My dogs clearly think dynamically. If I get up with a coffee cup, they know I am going to the kitchen and heading there. Not all animals have that ability. So why are dogs capable of looking for patterns and anticipating my next move, and a hippo, snake, or alligator is not?

I do not believe we are anywhere close to comprehending those differences, and as such, we cannot create a true cognitive machine that is self-aware when we do not understand what makes us self-aware.

To build Socrates, I had to study intensely how we actually think. Let’s say you met the person who is your soul mate. You went to dinner. Your mind is actually recording every aspect of that evening, and you are totally unaware of what it is recording. Years later, you return to that same restaurant, and that memory involuntarily comes rushing to the forefront of your mind. Or there was music playing that night, and suddenly you hear that same song, and that memory again involuntarily comes to mind. Perhaps it is the food. The point is that memory is stored, but any of our senses can access it. The complexity is enormous.

My oldest dog does not like going to the Vet. She even knows her surroundings. Miles from the place, she knows where I am going and begins to tremble. She is aware of her surroundings miles from home, which astonished me. It was not a capability I assumed a dog would have. A dog stayed with a two-year-old girl who went missing and always protected her.

There is a lot more hidden within us and many animals that cannot be explained or recreated by a computer.

Just be careful with claims suddenly of people coming up with AI trading programs. It took me 17 years to build Socrates. You cannot create an AI trading program in a few weeks. As for hiring, yes, of course. We always have projects under development.

Understanding REAL AI


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Aug 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your 2011 conference in Philadelphia. A friend of mine insisted and paid for the ticket, telling me your computer has been incredible on forecasting long-term that nobody can come close. I confess I thought your forecasts at the event were out there. You put up the war cycle and said it would all begin in 2014. That was three years in advance. There were cameramen there filming what later became the film The Forecaster. I hear they are doing a sequel to show all the forecasts you made ten years ago have come true. I also hear they are doing a Holywood film on you, like the Big Short.

You have accomplished what nobody else has done, and you are even a legend in markets and were even a speaker at the American Hackers convention in computers. With all the craziness going on about Artificial Intelligence, some people call it a threat to humanity, and others seem to be hinting that AI might take over everything. So there is no better person to speak about this than you. Are we at risk from AI, or is the hype some excuse claiming AI starts the war, not the people, as a cover-up?

DS

ANSWER: ChatGPT has dazzled the world and led everybody to think that AI will be something like the movie Terminator or The Matrix. I will dig out the old program I wrote in the early 1980s for my children. It was a simple program where I taught the computer to have a conversation. I would ask a question like – Do you have a dog? My daughter would reply yes. Of what is their name? She would then say the name. It stored all that info so the next time she went to the computer; it would ask: How is your dog Buttons? One day she came home from school and saw I had the computer apart, and she started crying, saying I killed it.

Back then, I worked with Dragon Systems. They produced hardware that you plugged in a board in the slot of an old IBM XT, and the computer would speak. She would bring over her girlfriends to prove to them her computer talked to her.

The point is that such a program is not really AI in the sense that it is self-aware to the point it will take over the world. With the introduction of the internet, such a program that has free reign to search can provide astonishing answers. Nevertheless, this is by no means self-aware.

The theory behind these wild claims entirely rests upon this theory that there is no God, we have no soul, and our entire existence is no more than a biological supercomputer. Therefore, they presume that if you through in enough data, some miracle will emerge, and it will become conscious just as a living being. That may make a great movie, but I think I am pretty well advanced in AI, and aside from disagreeing with this theory, I can write code that will make you think it is alive, but that is just mimicking human interaction. I do not know of any possible way to create a fully conscious AI system. It is only theory.

As far as Socrates is concerned, I poured myself into the program. It is NOT a neural net that you hope for the best. I taught Socrates how to analyze and know history, so I did not hardwire relationships. That is why it has discovered things and can do long-term forecasting beyond anything out there. As I have said, we are all connected. You cannot forecast a single market in isolation – you will always be wrong caught by the wildcard from an external market. They lost in Russia in 1998 and needed cash in the middle of a liquidity crisis. So they started selling assets everywhere to raise money to cover their losses in Russia. You would never have seen that coming just by looking at a single market.

The mystery if Pi – Full Version


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jul 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
Here is the full version of that short video you posted about Pi. In it, he makes the statement “Where ever there is Pi, there is a hidden circle.” Interesting thought in regards to Pi and the ECM.

Joel

REPLY: Thank You. It is fascinating.

The Mystery of Pi – It’s Everywhere


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jul 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Artificial Intelligence Positioned to Define Terms of Reality


Posted originally on the CTH on July 12, 2023 | Sundance 

There has been a great deal of increased discussion surrounding the issues of automated Artificial Intelligence, colloquially called “AI.”

At the central core of the AI issues in communication; you inevitably enter a discussion on the issue of definitions and terms.  Who is determining the definitions of what constitutes valid information? Who is determining what types of information are not valid, not approved for communication networks and how are their definitions being applied?

A solid and short-read thread on the assembly of people, groups and institutions surrounding the issue of AI in communication and media is presented HERE.

[Article/Thread LINK]

The topic of AI in general is a very large conversation.  The topic of AI specific to communication is equally large and perhaps even more significant.

AI applied to communication must first establish a need for it to exist.  Within that discussion, government interests and corporate interests take large seats at the table.  Social media platforms, communication outlets, almost the entire technology sector and various special interest groups are also stakeholders in the discussion of how AI can be applied to the filtering of information – or what I would more appropriately call the CONTROL of information.

The predicate of the conversation jumps around a little, but the issue of defining reality is throughout the discussion.  This is where my prior warnings about defining information must be emphasized.  I am losing the current argument, but I retain optimism that eventually the control mechanisms will need to be destroyed by a generation that falls under its influence.

“There is no such thing as “disinformation” or “misinformation” or “malinformation”.  There is only information.  There is information you accept and information you do not accept.  You were not born with a requirement to believe everything you are told; rather, you were born with a brain that allows you to process the information you receive and make independent decisions.”

There are only two elements within the public discussion of information – truth and not truth.

In an era filled with “fact-checkers” and institutional guardians at the gates of Big Tech, let me explain exactly why it is important not to accept the speech rules of the guards.

When you accept the terms “disinformation”, “misinformation” or the newest lingo, “malinformation,” you are beginning to categorize truth and lies in various shades.  You are merging black and white, right and wrong, into various shades of grey.

When your mind works in the grey zone, you are, by direct and factual consequence, saying there is a problem.  You are correct; however, this is where people may make a mistake. The problem is supposed to be there.

It is not a solution to the problem to try and remove the grey simply because it takes too much work to separate the white pixels from the black ones.  You were born with a gift, the greatest gift a loving God could provide.  You were born with a brain and set of natural instincts that are tools to do this pixel separation, use them.

If you define the grey work as a problem you cannot solve on your own, you open the door for others to solve that problem for you.  You begin to abdicate the work, and that’s when trouble can enter.

The sliding scale of Pinocchios is one of the most familiar yet goofy outcomes.

Put more clearly, when you accept the terminology “disinformation”, you accept a problem.

The problem is then the tool by which authorities will step in to make judgements.

Speech, in its most consequential form, is then qualified by others to whom you have sub-contracted your thinking.

When you willingly sub-contract information filters to others, you have lost connection with the raw information.

CTH was founded upon the belief that truth has no agenda, nor does it care about you, your feelings, or your opinion of it.  It just sits there, empirically existing as evidence of information in its most pure form.

The search for truth, in all things, is the mission objective of this assembly.   Often, we don’t like the truth; often, the truth is bitter, cold, challenging and even painful to accept.  However, the truth doesn’t care.

Information in its most raw form is ambivalent to your opinion.  If you struggle to accept these things, that’s when you need grey.  The New York Times is not called the “grey lady” accidentally.

Personally, I am an absorber of information – perhaps on a scale that is unusual.  But I do not discount information from any form until I can put context to it and see if the information makes sense given all the variables present.

When something doesn’t feel right, it’s almost always because it isn’t right.

Often, I find myself struggling in the grey and complex.  It is not unusual to spend days researching, digging, clarifying a situation, only to discover the path to finding the truth is in another direction entirely.   Erasing everything and starting over is frustrating, but it is genuinely the only approach that works; and often finding truth is supposed to be difficult, that’s why it is rewarding.

In the digital information age, we are bombarded with information.  It is easy to be overwhelmed and need to find something or someone who has better skills at separating the black grains from the white ones.  All opinions in this quest should be considered; thus, it is important to allow the free flow of information.

I am not necessarily a speech absolutist.  There is some language that needs to be constrained if we are to participate in a respectful society, with grandma’s rules and knowing the audience.  The CTH has guidelines for comments for this exact reason.  However, those constraints need to be based on a set of inherent values.   When it comes to information it is important to draw a distinction from speech.

There needs to be an open venue for all information. Unfortunately, when we begin to apply labels or categorization to information, there’s an opportunity for information to be manipulated – even weaponized.  Saul Alinsky spent decades pondering the best techniques to weaponize information and speech.  Alinsky’s intentions in the endeavor to change society by changing how language and information was used were not good. He devoted his completed rulebook to Lucifer.

Be careful about anyone saying we need to label or categorize information in order to control or remove speech from the discussion.  Be careful about those who advocate to automate this process via Artificial Intelligence filters.

You were not born with a requirement to believe everything you are told; rather, you were born with a God-given brain that allows you to process the information you receive and make independent decisions.

Teach your family, especially your children and grandchildren, to view information only insofar as it is valuable to your understanding the real world based on morals and virtues.  Upstream, those who are now defining the rules and terms of automated information filtering do not carry those same morals and virtues.

No one is going to get to avoid this issue.  We are on a glidepath to a future that was/is entirely predictable.

Missing Titanic Tourist Sub Suffered Catastrophic Failure of Pressure Chamber, All Five Souls are Lost


Posted originally on the CTH on June 22, 2023 | Sundance 

Coast Guard Rear Admiral John Mauger announced today that a remote operated underwater vehicle was able to locate the wreckage of the OceanGate tourist sub approximately 1,600 feet from the hull of the titanic. The mini submarine had been missing for four days.

The passengers on the 21-foot sub were British businessman Hamish Harding, Pakistani businessman Shahzada Dawood and his teenage son, Suleman, French explorer Paul-Henri Nargeolet, and Stockton Rush, CEO of OceanGate, the company that operates the vessel.   VIDEO:

CBS NEWS – Five people who were on a sub that went missing during a voyage to the wreckage of the Titanic did not survive, OceanGate, the company that planned the trip, said Thursday as the U.S. Coast Guard said the vessel experienced a “catastrophic loss of the pressure chamber,” and confirmed that the debris found on the sea floor were pieces of the missing sub.

“This is a incredibly unforgiving environment down there on the sea floor and the debris is consistent with a catastrophic implosion of the vessel,” Coast Guard Rear Adm. John Mauger told reporters.

An ROV, or remotely operated vehicle, from a Canadian vessel found the tail cone of the sub about 1,600 feet from the bow of the Titanic on Thursday morning, Mauger said during a briefing in Boston on Thursday afternoon. He said more debris was found and authorities consulted with experts who determined the debris was consistent with the sub.

“On behalf of the United States Coast Guard and the entire unified command, I offer my deepest condolences to the families,” Mauger said. “I can only imagine what this has been like for them, and I hope that this discovery provides some solace during this difficult time.” (read more)