THIS MODEL ACTUALLY WORKS

In the posts here in the Section on Climate Change that are labeled “Issues with the IPCC Models” I through IV we discussed the Pattern Climate Model (PCM) model of the world’s temperature which is based on identifying patterns and then finding equations that could generate a curve(s) that would match the observed data. The assumptions used for predicting temperatures are that there were two source curves for global temperature movement that were independent of each other but when added together with a reasonable factor for Carbon Dioxide effects gave observed results that matched NASA-GISS published values in their Table LOTI published monthly.

To use this PCM model we also needed a model for the Carbon Dioxide levels and that was modeled using the form of a Gaussian distribution after the seasonable variance was removed. The equation developed generated a plot that fit the NOAA-ERSL data very well and it transitioned smoothly back to the estimated 1650 value of ~270 ppm. This gives a base to work from that led to the following equations. But first we needed one more equation that of James Hansen’s Scenario B and a simple least squares method of his plots gives the following equation from 1958 to 2020, the period of his published work. X represents the number of years from 1958.

IPCC Temperature in Celsius GT = .0003*x^2 + .0037*x + 13.908 using this equation the Global temperature for 2013 should then be 15.02 C if the IPCC and Hansen are correct. The actual average for that year was 14.56 making the IPCC model over stating temperatures by .46 degrees C.

In the PCM model the base Temperature in 1650 (we use 1650 since that is the approximate low point in the little ice age) is set at TB = 13.215 C. The long cycle LC is 1,052.63 years with a 1.48 C swing. The short cycle SC is 66.67 years with a swing of .30 C. The forcing for CO2 CL is calculated from 272 ppm for 1650 and taken to 800 ppm level by 2250 by a plot that matches NOAA data where its available (1958 to the present). The model starts in January 1650 and moves by an increments of 1 per month (M) from the starting point to the end of the simulation. Each increment of one adds one row to the spreadsheet e.g. December 2013 would be M = (2014-1650)*12 = 4368

The NASA-GISS temperature December 2013 is 14.60 C
The PCM model projection for the same Month is 14.56 C

So the following is how we would use the PCM model. If we wanted to calculate the value that NASA-GISS will give for November 2014 that would represent an M value of 4379 and that is all that is needed to solve for the temperature. This method appears to work well from 1000 AD through 2000 AD; so the prediction for November 2014 is calculated as follows:

The Long Cycle LC = Sin (.00052359*M-1.57338795)*.74+.303784 = .791408 C
The Short Cycle SC = Sin (.00785385 *M-19.2419325)*.15+.195341 = .274718 C
CO2 will be CL = 550/(1+EXP(1+8.94+.002*M)+272 = 401.081 ppm
The Adder for CO2 will be TC = -4.227 + (.75*LN(CL))) = .268623 C
The Temperature for 2014-11 will be Temp = 13.215 + LC + SC + TC or 14.550 C
Based on the PCM model as shown in these 6 equations, including calculating the CO2 value we saw that there are 6 warming and cooling cycles in the base model planning horizon from 1800 to 2200. The following Table One contains values which are a twelve month average for each of the indicated years and represents the six climate cycles developed in the PCM model.

The first section of the Table shows a number of reference years; 1800 is the start of the forecast-ed temperature and CO2 used in the base model; 1880 starts the NASA-GISS temperature data; 1958 Starts the NOAA-CCGG CO2 data; 2013 was the last full year and is shown here for reference. 2204 contains the indicated peak of world temperature of 15.24 degrees C using this model. CO2 reaches 800 ppm at the end of the extended models planning horizon in 3000 AD and by then virtually all of the effect of CO2 has already been transferred into the planet’s atmosphere.

The second section of the table represents the six cycles shown in the 1800 through 2200 basic model with the pink band representing the top of the models temperature forecast and the cyan band representing the bottom of the models temperature forecast for that cycle. We can see that there is minimum deviation from either the actual compared to forecast CO2 or temperature so we have a good basis for the support of the models predictive capability.

The concern over global warming as observed during the 70’s 80’s and 90’s was not unreasonable since Carbon Dioxide, a known “greenhouse” gas (we use this term even though it is wrong as previously explained), levels were going up and global temperatures were also going up. The politicians that wanted to act got involved and created a solution before the apparent problem was even understood. The green energy, sustainability and save the planet slogans that were developed and even the greenhouse effect words were all designed to convince the citizens that things must be changed or there would be dire consequences. The IPCC climate models will eventually be fixed to work as they will eventually realize that something is not working the way they thought. Unfortunately the political damage has already been done as we poor hundreds billions of dollars into changing how we produce energy to fix a non-existent problem. The sooner we can get past this the less time, effort and resources will be wasted and we can use them for much better purposes.