Volcanoes & The Risks Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Jan 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, which is a Submarine volcano, has erupted sending tsunamis off in every direction. The eruption has not yet been classified. However, it has been building since the March 16, 2009 (2009.205) eruption. There have been four eruptions since then and it does appear to be closer to a Pi cycle.

If we look at the volcanic activity in the entire region we can see this was then due to begin rising from 2019. There tends to be a general cyclical wave of 68 years looking at Tambora and Krakatoa which were 1815 and 1883. Kelud is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia that has major eruptions from time to time. The first explosion was around 1586. It had an eruption in 1951. The next target was 2019 marking the eruption of Tangkuban Perahu Volcano but a few months before Anak Krakatau became one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia.

The key here appears to be that there are multiple eruptions of a lesser magnitude in 1815 and 1883 so they were not eruptions that were by themselves. The risk from volcanoes of a volcanic winter ahead would emerge when we see more coordinated eruptions that could lead to one major eruption that blocks the sun.

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, November, 2021 Data


From the attached report on climate change for November 2021 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958? To show this graphically Chart 8a was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about 32.0% from 1958 to November of 2021. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is almost un-measurable at only .4%. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for another Chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2 Shown in the next Chart using a different scale.

This is Chart 8 which is the same as Chart 8a except for the scales. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 50 % on the left and 5% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 32.0% which is 80 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem?

Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be a bit over 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

Carbon Dioxide CO2 is not making “ANY” dangerous changes to the global temperature!

The numbers tell us — there isn’t any problem!

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

<object class="wp-block-file__embed" data="https://centinel2012.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/blackbody-temperature-2021-11-1.pdf&quot; type="application/pdf" style="width:100%;height:600px" aria-label="Embed of <strong>blackbody-temperature-2021-11-1blackbody-temperature-2021-11-1Download

European Environmentalists Have New Plan For Cargo Ships Based on Paris Climate Agreement Compliance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 16, 2021 | Sundance | 525 Comments

Folks, this story is not from The Onion or any version of sarcastic media.  This is very real.

To meet the compliance standards of the Paris Climate Accords and the subsequent treaty that all EU nations agreed to, they must reduce carbon emissions in freight and transit systems.  They have spent thousands of hours pouring over possible solutions and will begin the test phase next month.

Bloomberg News – At the start of next year, the Ville de Bordeaux, a 154-meter-long ship that moves aircraft components for Airbus SE, will unfurl a 500 square meter kite on journeys across the Atlantic Ocean. It will undergo six months of trials and tests before full deployment.

While the industry has come up with multiple decarbonization initiatives, it is struggling to keep pace with goals set out under the Paris Agreement on climate. There’s also pressure on shipping lines from large customers who are pressing to make their own supply chains less polluting. (read more)

Yes my friends, the extremely well educated scientists, physicists, climatologists, sustainability engineers and cross functional decarbonization problem solvers for the planetary saving climate justice agenda, have invented…. wait for it….

….Sailboats!

Sunday Talks, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear Gives Horrific Update to Tornado Devastation, Entire Towns Gone, Death Toll Will Climb


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 102 Comments

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gave a terrible update about the devastation in the aftermath of the horrific tornadoes that hit overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  According to the Governor, more than 70 are dead in a candle factory alone in Mayfield, and the death toll is expected to continue climbing as the list of missing people throughout the state is too long to fathom.

An official death count has not been released, but Beshear, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, said at least 80 Kentuckians were feared dead with that number expected to rise. “I know we’ve lost more than 80 Kentuckians. That number is going to exceed more than 100,” he said. “This is the deadliest tornado event we’ve ever had.” WATCH:

Additional deaths have been reported outside of Kentucky including six at an Amazon warehouse in Illinois, four in Tennessee, two in Arkansas and two in Missouri.  More drone footage of the devastation was released earlier today. [See Below]

Raw Video Shows Horrific Tornado Devastation in Kentucky, At Least 70 Killed, Six States Impacted, National Guard Rescue Operations Continue


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 11, 2021 | Sundance | 271 Comments

The town of Mayfield, Kentucky has been absolutely devastated by at least one of several tornadoes that tore through six states overnight.  The video footage of the area shows widespread devastation, and the Kentucky governor is now reporting at least 70 people have been killed.

All Treepers in the region please check in and let us know how y’all are doing.  Our prayers are with everyone who was in the path of this massive storm system.  There are resources coming from all over the Southeast and Midwest into the region.  The images are jaw-dropping.

(Reuters) – A devastating swarm of tornadoes ripped through six U.S. states, killing more than 70 people in Kentucky and leaving a trail of destroyed homes and businesses along a path that stretched more than 200 miles, officials said on Saturday.

Dozens were feared dead at a candle factory in western Kentucky where about 110 people were working when a powerful tornado ripped through the facility late on Friday, causing the roof to cave in.  VIDEO:

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said 40 of the 110 workers had been rescued from the factory so far. “The level of devastation is unlike anything that I have ever seen,” Beshear said of the damage caused by the collection of twisters, with the primary tornado traveling more than 227 miles (365 km) across his state.

[…] The genesis of the tornado outbreak was a series of overnight thunderstorms, including a super cell storm that formed in northeast Arkansas. That storm moved from Arkansas and Missouri and into Tennessee and Kentucky.

“Unfortunately it produced a couple of deadly tornadoes along the way. One of them may have been a long-track tornado,” Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Roger Edward said. “The killer tornado was part of that.” (read more)

Almighty God, You are our healer. Our trust is in Your grace and power. We are blessed in Your name.

With You all rescue, recovery and healing are possible. We ask Your comfort upon those who have suffered such great tragedy.

We pray for Your comfort to relieve the anxiety of all who have been impacted. Let Your strength keep all the rescue workers going and find any who are lost.

Provide Your Holy Spirit to restore those who have suffered so much. Amen.

It’s Looking A Lot Like Frozen Winterland


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Dec 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The weather is following what our computer has been forecasting using historical data and correlating history to ascertain the cyclical nature of weather. The ice has now grown larger than the global warming crowd has ever predicted. This threatens Europe with a very cold winter that will further endanger food production.

The entire problem with the claimed research into climate change is that they have begun with pre-determined conclusions that the air was free of things such as lead preindustrial revolution, which the ice core samples have proven to be false. What has emerged is that the assumption that preindustrial levels of lead in the air were negligible, safe, or nonexistent is completely false. Next‐generation laser technology in climate science, in combination with detailed historical and archaeological records, has revealed a different history. The lead levels in the air have been elevated for the past 2000 years.

As long as the research begins with a pre-determined conclusion, it will always sift through the data and cherry-pick only that which supports the desired conclusion. During this Little Ice Age, glaciers advanced in mountain valleys and actually destroyed many European settlements. Paintings from the 1600s depict people ice skating on the Thames River in London like this one showing the frozen Thames in a painting by Abraham Hondius from 1677.

A Volcano & the Last Little Ice Age | Armstrong Economics

Even the canals in Amsterdam were frozen. It remained cold for nearly 200 years. There were ice fairs into the late 1600s as shown in this painting from 1683. However, the winters were brutal even into the late 1700s and early 1800s, although gradually warmer from the depths of the 1600 period.

The Post Office even issued commemorative stamps in 1976, noting that winter event. Washington and his troops suffered more in Morristown, N.J., during the Hard Winter of 1779-80. Violent snowstorms had battered the Northeast, and both Boston and New York harbors were completely frozen over. The weather made it impossible to bring supplies to the men, many of whom had no coats or even shoes. They couldn’t even eat for days at a time. The soldiers finally mutinied in early May, though an officer persuaded them to abandon their rebellion. Just as the weather had defeated Napoleon, weather nearly defeated the American Revolution.

I have warned that volcanic activity correlates with the solar minimum, which we have been heading into since 2015. In fact, this has been the sharpest decline in the energy of the sun that we know of. It has been exceptionally declining since 2015, which was the peak of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Since the ECM was constructed from economic data, it is interesting how the cyclical nature of the economy aligns with Mother Nature herself.

There have been 215 major volcanic eruptions since 10,900 BC. Two massive eruptions changed the climate – (1) Tambora in 1815 and (2) Samalas in 1257.

In 1257, a catastrophic eruption occurred at the Samalas volcano on the Indonesian island of Lombok, which was a 7, making it one of the largest volcanic eruptions in modern history. It is worth noting that the two largest eruptions in modern history both took place in Indonesia.

Samalas wiped out human habitations, including the city of Pamatan, which was the capital of a kingdom on Lombok. The eruption injected into the atmosphere was massive and it reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, causing a volcanic winter. This led to famines and crop failures in Europe and elsewhere. It is believed that this eruption became the trigger for the subsequent Little Ice Age and a centuries-long cold period during the last thousand years. The first evidence of the eruption was discovered in the ice core samples around 1257, providing strong evidence of a large volcanic eruption impacted the entire world. Finally, in 2013, scientists were able to link the historical records about Mount Samalas to these spikes in the ice cores.

By 1258, Henry III of England became very unpopular as the weather turned cold and people were starving. It was 1257 when Henry issued the first gold coin of England which is extremely rare. Taxation became a hot topic because of his expensive foreign policies and the role of his local officials in collecting taxes and debts. A coalition of his barons seized power in a coup d’état and expelled the Poitevins, the king’s favorites, from England. They instigated political reform of the royal government through a process called the Provisions of Oxford. Henry was forced to sue for peace with France in 1259, and Henry gave up his rights to his other lands in France in return for King Louis IX recognizing him as the rightful ruler of Gascony. The baronial regime collapsed but Henry was unable to reform a stable government and instability across England continued.

But this also slowed the Mogol invasion of Europe. The weather data preserved in tree rings points to a series of warm, dry summers in Europe until 1242 when temperatures dropped and rainfall increased. The local climate shifted to a wetter and colder environment which caused flooding of the formerly dry grasslands and created a marshy terrain. Those conditions would have been less than ideal for the nomadic Mongol cavalry and their encampments. The Mongols were horsemen and this reduced their mobility and pastureland, curtailing their invasion into Europe west of the Hungarian plain.

The worst possible future will be a volcanic winter occurring over the next 13 years.

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, October 2021 Data


From the attached report on climate change for October 2021 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958? To show this graphically Chart 8a was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about 32.0% from 1958 to October of 2021. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is almost un-measurable at only .4%. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for another Chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2 Shown in the next Chart using a different scale.

The next chart is Chart 8 which is the same as Chart 8a except for the scales. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 50 % on the left and 5% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 32.0% which is 80 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem?

Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be a bit over 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

Carbon Dioxide CO2 is not making “ANY” dangerous changes to the global temperature!

The numbers tell us — there isn’t any problem!

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

<object class="wp-block-file__embed" data="https://centinel2012.files.wordpress.com/2021/11/blackbody-temperature-2021-10-1.pdf&quot; type="application/pdf" style="width:100%;height:600px" aria-label="Embed of <strong>blackbody-temperature-2021-10-1blackbody-temperature-2021-10-1Download

Diagnosis: Climate Change


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Nov 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

For the first time in history, a doctor has diagnosed a patient with the ailment of “climate change.” A Canadian doctor from British Columbia treated a patient with asthma, diabetes, and heart failure who was struggling to breathe after wildfires in the Kootenays region. Dr. Kyle Merritt officially diagnosed the patient as suffering from “climate change.”

“If we’re not looking at the underlying cause, and we’re just treating the symptoms, we’re just gonna [sic] keep falling further and further behind,” Merritt boldly claimed. This is outright medical negligence and fraud. How exactly is someone supposed to be treated for climate change? How is it even legal for a doctor to claim such an ailment?

“She has diabetes. She has some heart failure…She lives in a trailer, no air conditioning,” Merritt said of his patient, who is in her 70s. “All of her health problems have all been worsened. And she’s really struggling to stay hydrated.” Diabetes, asthma, heart failure – these are all treatable and real conditions. Obviously, the way this patient is living is contributing to her deteriorating health. No one needs medical training to see the clear changes this patient could make to better her condition. Instead, the doctor gave her what seems to be a potentially terminal diagnosis as there is and never will be a solution to change the cyclical patterns of climate.

This doctor is yet another sheep following the herd to push forward an agenda that is anti-human rights. I expect other patients with treatable illnesses to receive this terminal diagnosis, and the climate change crowd will cheer as people die as martyrs for their cause. Revoke this quack’s medical license immediately!

A Conversation On Carbon Dioxide and Climate


This post contains a link to a discussion on Climate and Carbon Dioxide. The image below is a screen shot of the home page where the Conversation was posted on Nov 6th and 7th 2021

On November 3, 2021, I recorded a presentation that was broadcast on November 6th and 7th and then made available on the America Out Loud website. The subject is Carbon Dioxide and why it is not changing the temperature of the planet. Click on the following link ….

Once there, there is an image of clouds in a blue sky with some clouds spelling out CO2. Below that is a rectangle as wide as the image with a yellow box on the left. In the box is a white arrow pointing to the right. nest to the box is a circle with and arrow in it. Click on the circle and it will start start the audio. The interview is just under an hour long.

Either before or after listening to the dissuasion there is a link below the rectangle with some text from the presentation and below that is a link to a paper on this subject with additional information. The link is as shown below.

SCOTUS Decision to Review EPA’s Authority to Regulate Carbon Dioxide is a Victory,” by Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, November 2, 2021, America Out Loud

Sunday Talks, Incompetent and Ideological Energy Secretary Says You Will Pay Historic Rates For Home Heating, and There is Nothing They Can Do About It


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 7, 2021 | Sundance | 204 Comments

A comprehensively incompetent U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, has the audacity to say that Biden’s administration has no responsibility for gas prices likely to reach $4/gal, and Americans this year are almost certain to pay historic amounts for home heating oil and natural gas.

Everything in this soundbite from her interview with CNN is stunningly false, manipulative and misleading.   The U.S. has an abundant amount of energy resources, likely more oil than all other OPEC countries combined in Alaska alone.   The issue is a current administration that refuses to extract oil and natural gas because they are purposefully and intentionally intent on destroying the U.S. economy under the guise of climate change.

Granholm admits that gasoline is likely to go beyond $4/gal in the national average, and home heating costs are almost certain to crush Americans this year.  Infuriating to see such willful stupidity go unchallenged.  WATCH:

So what can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?

We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

  • Permit the use of preexisting approved leases in ANWAR (Alaska) to put more volume into the Alaskan oil pipeline that is severely underutilized.
  • Finish the Dakota access pipeline.
  • Reapprove the preexisting energy leases in New Mexico, Arizona, NE Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
  • Retract the stoppage of the Keystone pipeline to permit efficient oil transport shipments from Canada.
  • Stop blocking the expansion of coastal oil refineries in Texas, Louisiana and Alabama (regulatory issue), as well as Northwest, Northeast and Southeast Seaboard.
  • Continue to develop natural gas as a clean burning fuel.
  • Drive Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an export.

None of this requires any approval from OPEC.  Strategically, the all of the above approach enhances U.S. national security and diminishes the influence of Russia, China and Iran.  Within six months of the above, gasoline will plummet.