New paper showing CO2 sensitive being .68 degrees C

Last week Professor William Happer from Princeton sent me a newly issued paper describing a new method of calculating the climate sensitivity value of Carbon Dioxide; I finished reading it last night and found it very insightful.

The paper Advanced Two-Layer Climate Model for the Assessment of Global Warming by CO₂ was written by Hermann Harde from the Helmut-Schmidt-University in Hamburg, Germany and it was published on March 14, 2014. As the title suggests Harde shows how he developed a method of analyzing the interaction of the Earth Atmosphere system (EASy) to determine the real sensitivity value of Carbon Dioxide (CO₂). Since the accuracy of this value is critical to determining what effect CO2 will have on the global climate the results of this paper should put the last nail in the coffin containing the corpse of the theory called Anthropogenic Climate change.

The IPCC in all their assessments uses a climate sensitivity value of 3.0 degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO₂. According to Wiki this value came from the 1979 National Academy of Science Report Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate; Jule Charney chaired the study group and the report has since been referred to as the Charney Report. Also according to Wiki they took James Hansen’s high estimate of 4.0 C and added .5 degrees C to it and then took Syukuro Manabe’s low estimate of 2.0 C and subtracted .5 from it and then average the two which then gives us 1.5 Low 3.0 expected and 4.5 high which is what the IPCC is still using today as shown in AR5 thirty five years later. Much if not all of this theoretical work was done in the mid 1970’s which makes it 40 years old now; so the question is, is it still valid.

Since 1979 there have been a lot of studies made on this issue the graphic below shows some of the 29 most recent studies. The most current are on the left and the oldest on the right and each one shows the low the expected and the high value that each archer believed to be the correct value for CO₂ sensitivity. The range in these studies is from about .2 degree C to 10.0 degree C with an estimated average of around 1.9 degrees C. However since they are listed by date we can see that the older values are higher than the newer values as shown by the cyan trend line that was added to the expected value for each.

In my work on this subject it was my belief that the lower values were the real ones and I had been using values around 1.0 degree C until the 2011 paper by Richard Lindzen and Yong-Sang Choi showed that a value of .64 degrees C was the right one. Since then as shown in the graphic the published papers continue to drop the sensitivity value lower with none of them sowing 3.0 degrees C as the right one. Yet the IPCC clings to this value for they know if it is lower than 3.0 degrees C that their climate models are wrong and the Anthropogenic Climate change belief is not valid.

The next Graphic shows a range of Carbon Dioxide sensitivity values ranging from Harde’s .68 degrees Celsius to the IPCC’s 3.0 degrees Celsius. The red box on the red line for the 3.0 C plot is centered on where we are now at 400 ppm CO₂. From that point a black arrow points to the right and anything above that is an increase in global temperature for the CO₂ value on the X axis. That shows large increases in temperature in the near future and is what all the alarm is currently about.

The cyan box on the cyan line for the .68 C plot is also centered on where we are now at 400 ppm CO₂. From that point a black arrow points to the right and anything above that is an increase in global temperature for the CO₂ value on the X axis. That shows that there will be almost no increases in temperature in the near future and this matches to what the current NASA monthly published world temperatures are; and NASA temperatures are moving down now not up giving further proof that the IPCC theory is wrong.

The Harde paper goes a long way to settling this issue as it is well written and well documented. In my opinion the climate issue is now settled but its settled on the truth now not the past lies. Unfortunately, the politicians and the media will not accept this they have too much time and money invested in the false theory, so the battle is not ended — but the momentum is now on our side and we will prevail.