Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease
Posted Jan 26, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic
QUESTION: Hi Marty,
You had mentioned that it is possible that the Ebola virus becomes an issue in 2019, your model was certainly picking a big disease/war event. The Wuhan virus had not been identified at the time however given the recent acceleration of this breakout and the fact it was announced on your ECM turn date, I have a few questions please;
1. You have always been ahead of others in this space, can you please comment on how critical this may become?
2. I note that when you publish the ECM date chart, the chart from 2020 turns up, what does this line on the chart signify?
3. Does the fact that the ECM date lines up with your disease/war event amplify the outcome?
ANSWER: It’s not that I am ahead of the curve because I possess some sort of clairvoyance. All viruses are cyclical. The flu shot is based upon what they expect will be the next strain on a cyclical pattern basis. Scientists at each of the five main centers then gather and analyze the data together to identify new flu strains and to determine which strains of the virus are most likely to spread and cause illness in the upcoming flu season.
There is a 13-year cycle in Influenza outbreaks. The last pandemic with respect to the strain of the Influenza was 2009. The next one of those to reach a possible level of a pandemic will be in 2022. This is where the largest death toll appears to be most likely. Keep in mind that the last deadly pandemic began in 1918 but it lasted for two years into 2020. Clearly, the worst year ahead appears to be 2022.
It was the peak of the Economic Confidence Model 1981.35, which also marked the beginning of a major pandemic when the first cases were reported in 1981 of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) virus. The infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) grew to pandemic proportions, which resulted in an estimated 65 million infections and 25 million deaths. But this required sexual contact or a blood transfusion with infected blood. Coronaviruses, such as the common cold, the virus is spread via droplets when a person coughs or sneezes. It can also be spread when someone touches a contaminated surface such as a door handle. This is significantly different from the AIDS pandemic.
Most coronavirus infections are mild to moderate and don’t last long, and the symptoms are fatigue, dry cough, fever, and sore throat. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that originate in animals before making the jump to humans. Seven, including the new virus, have been found in humans, with four causing only mild, common cold-like symptoms. The two which have been more dealy are the Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers, 2012-present) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars, 2002–2003). The death rate was about 2%.
There is currently no vaccine to protect against the novel coronavirus, although researchers in the US and China have already begun working on one, thanks to China’s prompt sharing of the virus’s genetic code. There are different genetic models to diseases such as this. Coronaviruses and fluviruses might appear to cause similar symptoms but they are genetically very different.
The flu viruses which have a 13-year cycle incubates very rapidly so you tend to get symptoms two to three days after being infected. The coronaviruses, however, take much longer. Moreover, where the flu virus you become immune after contraction. Coronaviruses do not evolve in the same manner as the flu virus and thus our body doesn’t generate very good immunity. To complicate matters further, the coronaviruses virus, according to the Chinese officials, has already begun to mutate. This means the disease could evolve to enable it to infect many more people making vaccines even more difficult to discover.
The last deadly 1918 Spanish Influenza that killed between 50 and 100 million deaths, was an H1N1 virus which was the same virus that was also behind the 2009 Swine flu outbreak. However, the 2009 outbreak killed only about 575,400 people perhaps because the survivors of the 1918-1920 pandemic became immune. The next important wave of Influenza was 1928-1929. As you can see, we collected data on everything that ever moved. What was discovered was fascinating from a cyclical perspective.
The interesting cyclical evidence in disease revealed that it was the same I had discovered in the overall economy. There are six waves of intensity that always materialize. Hence, the sixth wave of influenza after the 1918-1920 event came in 1928-1929 which coincided also with the 51.6-year peak in the Economic Confidence Model – 1929.75. The epidemic of 1928-1929 was the most important since that of the more famous 1918-1920 constituting the sixth influenza post-1918.
Diseases such as viruses are cyclical in nature. It too has a life-cycle, birth matures and dies. It is true that our model was forecasting more of a coronavirus type that comes from animals rather than influenza which would be the next pandemic. Ebola virus disease is serious and often a fatal condition in humans and nonhuman primates. Ebola is one of several viral hemorrhagic fevers, caused by infection with a virus of the Filoviridae family, genus Ebolavirus.
Still, this new mysterious coronavirus is not nearly as infectious as the measles virus, which can live for up to two hours in the air after an infected person coughs or sneezes. The Ebolavirus is much more deadly but it also much harder to transmit for it is largely through direct contact with an infected person’s blood or bodily fluids. Coronavirus is a family of viruses that causes the common cold, but the spectrum of disease can range from the common cold to severe life-threatening pneumonia.
Here, the question is since its transmission of this coronavirus is more like a common cold that does not require direct contact, the question is how long can the virus survive on surfaces or in the air? The super-bugs which are immune to antibiotics are a fungus rather than a virus.
My deep concern about Climate Change fraud is that this is really a covert means to further Marxist socialism with the solution being hailed are the seizure of public companies to force a reduction in CO2. I have stated many times that disease correlated to global cooling and that is FAR MORE DANGEROUS than global warming. The flu season is WINTER, not summer. The major events that devastated the population took place in 1555, 1586, 1596, 1623, 1723, and later in 1846. These are clusters of disease which takes place when the energy output of the Sun was at a minimum and the climate turned cold.
This is what we must be concerned about for we are headed into another solar minimum beginning with the turn in this ECM here January 18, 2020. This next solar cycle will be turning toward global cooling which may be the lowest solar minimum in over 20o years. That means our model is also warning a decline in crops and a rise in disease. This will be also on track with the 11th interval of a 16-year cycle due in 2022. The most devasting will be 2038. We do show that the death toll can reach 65 million- 100 million if the solar minimum unfolds as expected.
The World Health Organization said last Thursday said that it remained “too early” to declare an international public health emergency. Our model is warning that a rise in disease should be unfolding with 2020 going into 2022 perhaps coming in as a very important year. If the climate change people actually were to succeed and force people to reduce the heat in their homes, we can imagine that they will be unleashing the worst pandemic in human history.