The Coronavirus has been declared by the World Health Organization (WH) to be an emergency. As I reported yesterday, the death rate may not be as high as SARS which was 10%, but its spread rate is far greater. The number of cases jumped in a day from 7700 to 9682. The WHO defines a global emergency — formally, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern — as “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.” This is the sixthdeclared in the past decade.

There have been only five such emergencies declared in the past decade:

1. the H1 virus that caused an influenza pandemic (2009),
2. West Africa’s Ebola outbreak (2013-2016),
3. polio (2014),
4. Zika virus (2016),
5. and the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2019)

Four of those six global emergencies took place during the last ECM and this one began on the turn at the bottom. Since our disease model on influenza is a 13-year cycle, that is also pointing to 2022 as a crisis year. If this coronavirus has the same life-expectancy for its global spread before reaching a peak, that also points to 2022. The good news, the death rate seems to be legitimate and it still runs less than 3%.

This has the potential to reduce economic growth further on an overall global scale

COMMENT: Hi Martin,
I totally agree with you that there is absolutely ZERO evidence to support any conspiracy theories about a “weaponized virus”.
But I would like to stress that I still think there is no coincidence that the epicenter occurred in Wuhan where the only Chinese BSL-4 lab exists – a lab that only became fully operational last year, first major “bug” studied was SARS and one of the main researchers working there has published papers regarding novel coronaviruses and bats. I will point out that there have only been three further SARS incidents and TWO of them were due to lab problems with protocols.

I have worked in a few companies where we had BSL labs. There were always “accidents” – most due to typical human attempts to reduce work by ignoring protocols. If you step back and objectively look at probabilities for a novel SARS-like virus to suddenly erupt at exactly this point in time due to some random “shady seafood market” it just seems…highly improbable.
But I will point out that there are some confounding factors if you add in a brand new BSL-4 facility in the vicinity. There are a couple of obvious “vectors” for anyone who has worked in these labs and also understands China – my wife is from Sichuan and I’ve been to China (more than 10 cities across the cardinal directions).

#1: Lots of work at a BSL-4 lab actually takes place at a BSL-2 level. CDC and Chinese officials have pointed out that BSL-2 protocols are completely inadequate for 2019-nCoV.
#2: BSL-4 (and any serious study of both virii and bacterial agents) requires both incubations as well as “test subjects”. These can (and often do) bite…or at least escape from cages.

There is a good Lancet article on the Wuhan origins. Again, having worked in BSL related to study for infectious agents, the Lancet overview of infections and also knowing Chinese “culture” there are a couple of salient points:

#1 Gloves. If BSL-2 protocols were not sufficient and yet lots of tests were being run there….Gloves got contaminated. For the lab – no problems, just toss them out – but for any poor person picking through the garbage and suddenly finding a “treasure trove” of “hardly used” gloves…Well. I’ve been to these markets and the sellers all wore gloves. Filthy gloves.
The massive spike of infected people going to some random market suddenly got an incredible boost as a disease vector.
#2: Serious study of bats for SARS-like virii requires a LOT of bats. Likely brought from the original SARS site. If there is trade in bats…well…overstock is easily sold in the market.

The most interesting facet is not really the origin but the long-term effects on China. Both cultural and, for you models, financial. I think we are about to see a significant “step function” that will impact globally.

It is very significant to me that your model seems to have landed on the “tipping point” for the 2019-nCov. This is extremely significant and, from my perspective, likely to have much broader implications than even your models may predict.

take care and stay warm,
YK

REPLY: We may never know the precise origin. Whether the impact of this virus will be significant and run into 2022 is of extreme interest. There is no question the fact that this took place on the ECM turn date holds the potential for this to be very important. With the American CDC going to China, perhaps this will help to verify the true death rate and stop all the conspiracy stories which do not help us get a true picture of what is taking place. Conspiracy claims that it’s always far worse are the very foundation of the Climate Change activists.

COMMENT: Thank you for not being the crazy doomsday guy who latches onto every story and then blows it out of proportion. The death rate is as you say, less than 3%. All the wild stories from nurses claiming there 90,000 infected to others trying to claim the death rate will rise to 10% or higher. These just scare tactics from the same people who always claim the end of the world is next week.

BE

ANSWER: The number of cases is up to 2,794 and the reported deaths at 80. The incubation period for this coronavirus is about 14 days. The incubation periods for the last two coronaviruses SARS and MERS, was 2 to 7 days and about 5 days, respectively, according to the CDC.

The duration might be 2 to 3 weeks before you recover fully, but that’s pretty much on par with most flu epidemics. There is absolutely no indication that this is a biological weapon. Had it been, China would NEVER have shared the genetic code. We still see the worst season with 4 different models converging on 2022.

I have pretty good sources and they do not expect this to cause a lot of deaths. As of January 24th, U.S. officials have screened more than 2,000 people from about 200 flights in the active entry screening program which is underway at five U.S. airports. There have been no cases identified as part of the program. China has halted ALL flights out of Wuhan, quarantined the entire city, and canceled major Lunar New Year celebrations.

I wish the world was ending next week. I am tired of paying outrageous taxes. It would be nice to migrate to a different plane of existence. Hopefully, they don’t have corrupt governments, regulations, and taxes there.

There is a conspiracy theory that is running around very fast which portrays this Coronavirus which began in Wuhan may be linked to two laboratories of the Chinese bio-warfare program. This story is making the news but it appears to be just a coincidence at this time. The laboratory is the only declared site in China that is capable of working with deadly viruses. The death rate is inconsequential for a bio-weapon. Those that die are typically weak in health, to begin with. If we take the reported number of people infected, 1300, and 41 deaths reported, the death rate is about 3% which is not inconsistent with other flu epidemics.

In 2003 and 2004, the SARS epidemic killed nearly 10% of the 8,096 people infected in 29 countries who fell ill. A total of 774 people died, according to the World Health Organization. MERS (2012) is even more deadly, claiming about 30% of people it infects. An effective bio-weapon must have a death rate of at least 33% to be considered possibly viable. For example, the death rates range from 25% to 75% for gastrointestinal anthrax and can reach up to 90–100% if anthrax is inhaled. That is the difference with a bio-weapon.

This version of Coronavirus appears to be natural so far. China has even shared the genetic code with the rest of the world. They certainly would not do that if this was a bio-weapon. I have been checking all of my sources on this issue given the rising conspiracy theories running around. It appears to be perfectly a natural cycle at this time.

Therefore, the hype over this Coronavirus seems to be exaggerated. It does not appear to be something that is linked to the bio-weapons lab, for that would be far more lethal. There are other claims running around that China is under-reporting the number of infections claiming a nurse says its more like 90,000 infected. Even if that were true and not again a major distortion, then a 3% death rate would mean there should be 2700 people who have died. This does not yet support these rumors. Even if the death certificates say “viral pneumonia” rather than “Coronavirus” may under-report the death rate, there still does not seem to be a massive death rate that would be associated with a bio-weapon.

There is the issue of smuggling viruses out of Canada to China. They certainly would be exploring the possible gene-editing and other cutting-edge technology and integration to raise the specter of such pathogens being weaponized. However, this comes back to the death rate. So far this is within the normal spectrum of the flu with 2%-3%. If the death rate exceeds 20%, then it is time to consider the bio-weapons angle.

I have had this rumor for several days. I will not publish something that seems to be to be baseless. I am not here to sell advertising on this site so there is no need to post outlandish headlines to get people to click so we make more from advertising. I try to provide reliable information – just the facts. There appears to be an effort to use China’s transparency against them.

The other conspiracy theory is that governments are creating viruses to force people into abandoning paper money.  Paper money can be a hospitable environment for viruses and bacteria which can liveon most surfaces for about 48 hours. Paper money, however, some claim can reportedly transport a live flu virus for up to 17 days. It’s enough to make you switch to credit cards at least. I have not found that scenario being discussed behind the curtain.

Australian dollar notes are made of a polymer, which has a waxy feel, while the banknotes of the U.S. and several other countries are made of cotton fiber paper. Australia was the first country to introduce polymer banknotes back in 1988, which have been adopted by other countries such as Canada and Vietnam. Because they are Polymer-based banknotes, they are “cleaner,” meaning more resistant to dirt and bacteria, than cotton-based ones. Therefore, the solution would be not to eliminate cash, but to move to polymer.

1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
You had mentioned that it is possible that the Ebola virus becomes an issue in 2019, your model was certainly picking a big disease/war event. The Wuhan virus had not been identified at the time however given the recent acceleration of this breakout and the fact it was announced on your ECM turn date, I have a few questions please;
1. You have always been ahead of others in this space, can you please comment on how critical this may become?
2. I note that when you publish the ECM date chart, the chart from 2020 turns up, what does this line on the chart signify?
3. Does the fact that the ECM date lines up with your disease/war event amplify the outcome?
Thanks always,
David

ANSWER: It’s not that I am ahead of the curve because I possess some sort of clairvoyance. All viruses are cyclical. The flu shot is based upon what they expect will be the next strain on a cyclical pattern basis.  Scientists at each of the five main centers then gather and analyze the data together to identify new flu strains and to determine which strains of the virus are most likely to spread and cause illness in the upcoming flu season.

There is a 13-year cycle in Influenza outbreaks. The last pandemic with respect to the strain of the Influenza was 2009. The next one of those to reach a possible level of a pandemic will be in 2022. This is where the largest death toll appears to be most likely. Keep in mind that the last deadly pandemic began in 1918 but it lasted for two years into 2020. Clearly, the worst year ahead appears to be 2022.

Most coronavirus infections are mild to moderate and don’t last long, and the symptoms are fatigue, dry cough, fever, and sore throat. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that originate in animals before making the jump to humans. Seven, including the new virus, have been found in humans, with four causing only mild, common cold-like symptoms. The two which have been more dealy are the Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers, 2012-present) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars, 2002–2003). The death rate was about 2%.

There is currently no vaccine to protect against the novel coronavirus, although researchers in the US and China have already begun working on one, thanks to China’s prompt sharing of the virus’s genetic code. There are different genetic models to diseases such as this. Coronaviruses and fluviruses might appear to cause similar symptoms but they are genetically very different.

The flu viruses which have a 13-year cycle incubates very rapidly so you tend to get symptoms two to three days after being infected. The coronaviruses, however, take much longer. Moreover, where the flu virus you become immune after contraction. Coronaviruses do not evolve in the same manner as the flu virus and thus our body doesn’t generate very good immunity. To complicate matters further, the coronaviruses virus, according to the Chinese officials, has already begun to mutate. This means the disease could evolve to enable it to infect many more people making vaccines even more difficult to discover.

The last deadly 1918 Spanish Influenza that killed between 50 and 100 million deaths, was an H1N1 virus which was the same virus that was also behind the 2009 Swine flu outbreak. However, the 2009 outbreak killed only about 575,400 people perhaps because the survivors of the 1918-1920 pandemic became immune. The next important wave of Influenza was 1928-1929. As you can see, we collected data on everything that ever moved. What was discovered was fascinating from a cyclical perspective.

The interesting cyclical evidence in disease revealed that it was the same I had discovered in the overall economy. There are six waves of intensity that always materialize. Hence, the sixth wave of influenza after the 1918-1920 event came in 1928-1929 which coincided also with the 51.6-year peak in the Economic Confidence Model – 1929.75. The epidemic of 1928-1929 was the most important since that of the more famous 1918-1920 constituting the sixth influenza post-1918.

Diseases such as viruses are cyclical in nature. It too has a life-cycle, birth matures and dies. It is true that our model was forecasting more of a coronavirus type that comes from animals rather than influenza which would be the next pandemic. Ebola virus disease is serious and often a fatal condition in humans and nonhuman primates. Ebola is one of several viral hemorrhagic fevers, caused by infection with a virus of the Filoviridae family, genus Ebolavirus.

Still, this new mysterious coronavirus is not nearly as infectious as the measles virus, which can live for up to two hours in the air after an infected person coughs or sneezes. The Ebolavirus is much more deadly but it also much harder to transmit for it is largely through direct contact with an infected person’s blood or bodily fluids. Coronavirus is a family of viruses that causes the common cold, but the spectrum of disease can range from the common cold to severe life-threatening pneumonia.

Here, the question is since its transmission of this coronavirus is more like a common cold that does not require direct contact, the question is how long can the virus survive on surfaces or in the air? The super-bugs which are immune to antibiotics are a fungus rather than a virus.

My deep concern about Climate Change fraud is that this is really a covert means to further Marxist socialism with the solution being hailed are the seizure of public companies to force a reduction in CO2. I have stated many times that disease correlated to global cooling and that is FAR MORE DANGEROUS than global warming. The flu season is WINTER, not summer. The major events that devastated the population took place in 1555, 1586, 1596, 1623, 1723, and later in 1846. These are clusters of disease which takes place when the energy output of the Sun was at a minimum and the climate turned cold.

This is what we must be concerned about for we are headed into another solar minimum beginning with the turn in this ECM here January 18, 2020. This next solar cycle will be turning toward global cooling which may be the lowest solar minimum in over 20o years. That means our model is also warning a decline in crops and a rise in disease. This will be also on track with the 11th interval of a 16-year cycle due in 2022. The most devasting will be 2038. We do show that the death toll can reach 65 million- 100 million if the solar minimum unfolds as expected.

The World Health Organization said last Thursday said that it remained “too early” to declare an international public health emergency. Our model is warning that a rise in disease should be unfolding with 2020 going into 2022 perhaps coming in as a very important year. If the climate change people actually were to succeed and force people to reduce the heat in their homes, we can imagine that they will be unleashing the worst pandemic in human history.