Tag Archives: European Union

Dec 15 2025

Witkoff and Kushner Meet with Zelenskyy – Negotiators Discussed Security Guarantees for 5 Hours


Posted originally on CTH on December 14, 2025 | Sundance

As with all information during high-stakes negotiations, particularly ones covered in geopolitics, trillions at stake and power dynamics on this scale, it is prudent to ignore most media reporting and focus on the public statements from the negotiators.

German Chancellor Fredrich Merz seated right next to Zelenskyy, highlighting the oppositional nature of the U.S. vs EU position during negotiations.

STEVE WITKOFF – Official Readout: “The meeting in Berlin between President Zelenskyy, Special Envoy Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and delegations from the United States and Ukraine lasted over five hours. Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more. A lot of progress was made, and they will meet again tomorrow morning.”

Official Readouts are the statements that all parties agree to.  The “readout” is not a shaping statement giving insight into the deal itself, but rather a status statement of the discussions surrounding the deal.

Team Zelenskyy have been waging a public relations campaign to retain support from echo-chambered EU politicians.  The focus is continuation of funding, essentially money. Team Trump have been less public and approaching the negotiations with prudent pragmatism; less PR more substance; their focus is an end to the killing.  These are two distinctly different priority sets.

DW NEWS – Sunday’s discussions in Berlin between Ukrainianand US officials on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine have concluded for the night, with the talks set to continue on Monday.

In a message sent to reporters over WhatsApp, Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn, said the talks “went on for more than five hours and ended for today with an agreement to resume tomorrow morning.”

Lytvyn added Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would comment on the discussions on Monday once they were completed. (source)

Dec 15 2025

Zelenskyy Arrives in Berlin for Meeting with Witkoff and Kushner Ahead of Summit with “Coalition of the Willing”


Posted originally on CTH on December 14, 2025 | Sundance

Today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Berlin to meet with President Trump emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner ahead of the previously scheduled Monday summit with the Coalition of The Willing, U.K, France and Germany.

The wording used by Zelenskyy tells the dynamic: “We are currently preparing for meetings with the U.S. side and our European friends in the coming days. Berlin will host many events.”

The “U.S side” and “European friends”, a notable distinction in the terminology as Zelenskyy notes his friendship with his European stakeholders.

Today, Sunday, Zelenskyy notes, “I am already in Germany. Today’s agenda includes a meeting with the American negotiating team. We are focusing on how to reliably guarantee Ukraine’s security so that the experience of the Budapest Memorandum and Russia’s invasion are never repeated. We are counting on constructive talks.”

For President Zelenskyy and his EU coalition, everything revolves around the security guarantees.  As noted by Politico:

“The summit in Berlin is important: we are meeting with both the Americans and the Europeans,” Zelenskyy told journalists in a WhatsApp group chat on Sunday, according to a transcript of his remarks. “It is important for us. And believe me, we have done a lot to ensure that these parties all meet together.”

Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Ukraine to receive firm guarantees from the United States and European allies that would be similar to those offered to NATO members, according to the transcript of the group chat.

“These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression,” the Ukrainian leader said. “And this is already a compromise on our part.”

Zelenskyy emphasized that the security guarantees would need to be legally binding and supported by the U.S. Congress. He said he expected an update from his team following a meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. military officials in Stuttgart. (link)

“We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees … as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others,” Zelenskyy told journalists in a group chat, according to a report by the Financial Times.

This is exactly what we predicted would happen.

♦ On the ‘Security Guarantee‘ issue, this is where a quagmire is presented by European leaders.

From a pragmatic standpoint, a European demilitarized zone, stood up and supported by EU military forces, would appear to be the best solution.  However, the “coalition of the willing” say they are willing to put security troops into Ukraine, but only if the USA will defend them if attacked by Russia.  In essence, quasi-NATO forces on a non-NATO country, that if attacked would draw the entirety of NATO into the conflict, including the United States.

The U.K, France, Germany and EU Commission want a security structure similar to NATO for Ukraine that legally binds the United States to defend their interests if the ceasefire does not hold.  President Trump has rejected this construct as yet another way for Europe to pull the U.S into a conflict zone that is not in our vital national security interests.

The ceasefire proposal structured by Trump, Witkoff and Kushner – seemingly supported by Russia, does not permit Ukraine to join NATO; however, EU membership is entirely up to the EU and people of Ukraine to decide.  If Ukraine joins the EU, then EU forces alone should provide the security guarantee, not NATO which includes the U.S. and Canada.

It will be interesting to see how the Europeans organize their “security guarantee” proposal.  I strongly doubt Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are willing to enter into any “article-5 like” agreement to put American troops into the mix, despite the demands of Zelenskyy.

ENOUGH ALREADY!  If Zelenskyy’s European “friends” are willing to put their military troops into the mix, then the EU friends should be responsible for the security therein.  President Trump needs to exit this hot mess, regardless of what congress wants to see happen.

December 14, 2025 | Sundance 

Dec 14 2025

Chinese Auto Sales to Europe Expected to Top 700,000 Units Sold This year


Posted originally on CTH on December 13, 2025 | Sundance |

The geopolitical baseline for Europe is often determined by the economics of their situation.  In 2024 approximately 408,000 cars from China were sold in Europe.  For 2025 that number is now expected to exceed 700,000 units despite tariffs.

Previously we highlighted the short-term ramifications of the European Union push to force the sale of electric vehicle (EVs) upon the consumer base.  {SEE HERE} EU automakers unable to meet the compliance goal began purchasing carbon credits to avoid stiff EU fines.  Many of those carbon credits were purchased from Chinese automakers, who then turned around and started using the extra EU revenue to discount Chinese cars sold in Europe.

In essence, EU car companies started subsiding China to undercut their own market. An outcome of the EU chasing the ridiculous green energy project throughout the European free trade zone.

Now reports are beginning to surface of how the non-EV segment of the industry is being lost to less expensive Chinese hybrid autos that: (1) are much cheaper, (2) not bad in quality, and (3) are not subject to the 35% EV tariff rate.

The EU tariff applied to gasoline powered cars or hybrids from China is 10%.  That tariff is not enough to stop the imports. The Chinese hybrid autos are substantially less than European car brands, and there’s no financial incentive for China to build auto plants in the EU zone especially when you consider the EU is subsidizing those cars by purchasing carbon credits.

When analyzed from a cost and consequence, the entire EU dynamic toward car companies is a little funny.  However, for Germany this is a serious issue, and with the German industrial economy already stagnant – every impact to their auto industry only makes the situation worse.

When you overlay the big picture of their expensive “green energy” costs, the EU find themselves in an unescapable downward spiral.  Quite literally, all commonsense seems to have been lost in their green energy chase.

By focusing on energy targets, specifically by trying to force production of European electric vehicles that are not favored by European car purchasers, the EU is shrinking their economy to the benefit of Beijing exploitation.

EUROPE – This year, sales of Chinese-made cars across the EU, UK, and EFTA are expected to exceed 700,000. This is up significantly from the 408,000 that were sold in 2024.

The surge comes despite the fact that additional tariffs of up to 35 percent, on top of the existing 10 percent import duty, were instated in November of last year.

Rather than dampen demand, the tariffs have simply redirected it. While the added fees specifically target EVs and extended-range electric vehicles, hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) models remain subject only to the base 10 percent tariff.

Predictably, Chinese brands have leaned into that category, shifting their European strategy toward models that sidestep the higher costs.

Thanks to significantly lower production costs, up to 30 percent cheaper than in Europe, it doesn’t make financial sense for these brands to relocate production just to serve a tariff-guarded market. Instead, they’re exploiting the gap. (read more)

The only Chinese auto plant current in the works for construction is in Hungary, not coincidentally the country with the most common sense as it applies to energy costs. BYD (Build Your Dream) is building a plant in Hungary expected to manufacture 150,000 units/yr.

While most EVs are generally best for short duration use, the Chinese hybrid vehicles are not a terrible build quality if you are an auto purchaser that changes vehicles frequently.  We dodged a bullet by electing President Trump in 2024, because Joe Biden (Blackrock) had positioned the North American auto industry toward a similar fate as currently happening in Europe.

Three Chinese automakers were going to spend $5 billion in Mexico creating new EV and hybrid vehicles destined for the U.S. market. However, Beijing abandoned those plans as soon as President Trump won the election.

The Europeans and leftists in the U.S. scoffed at President Trump for rejecting the premise behind the Green New Deal, which included electric car mandates.  Those same Europeans are now watching as their industrial economy collapses segment by segment; taken over by far cheaper Chinese industrial outputs.

Dec 12 2025

The EU and Canada Collaborate on Digital IDs


Posted originally on Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

EU and Canada agree to collaborate on digital ID mutual recognition, pilots

The latest agreement between the European Union and Canada to collaborate on mutually recognized digital IDs is simply another step in what I have been warning about for years. Whenever government confidence collapses, the political class tightens control. Digital ID is not about convenience; it is about tracking capital and controlling movement as the global sovereign-debt crisis accelerates.

The danger here is obvious. Mutual recognition means a unified framework. They’re building a foundation to establish a GLOBAL digital ID. Once these systems talk to one another, you have created the architecture for a worldwide database controlled by the political elite. This is precisely what the EU has been pushing with its Digital Services Act and the infamous “digital wallet” proposal. Now they are exporting it, just as they exported their disastrous ideas on Net Zero and financial regulation. Canada, collapsing economically and politically, is following Brussels into the abyss.

The EU and Canada will jointly test a pilot for digital identity wallets. Why do two separate continents need their systems to integrate? You cannot have a cross-border digital ID without a central authority. And once the state has the ability to monitor every transaction, every movement, every piece of identification, they will inevitably link this to taxation, travel permissions, banking access, and even political compliance. This is how governments always respond in the final stage of their fiscal life cycle. Rome imposed travel permits. The Soviet Union created the internal passport. Now the West is doing the same with better technology.

Capital will flee regions that move toward centralized digital identification. This is why we are seeing the migration of capital away from Europe and increasingly away from Canada. Both are moving toward a Marxist model where the citizen exists solely to fund the state. The push for digital ID aligns perfectly with the rising authoritarian wave into 2032 as governments fight to retain power in the face of systemic collapse.

Dec 12 2025

Bulgaria’s Government Resigns Amid Civil Unrest


Posted Dec 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The entire Bulgarian government has resigned after nationwide protests following the government’s decision to join the European Union. “The government resigns today,” Rosen Zhelyazkov announced. “People of all ages, ethnic backgrounds and religions have spoken out in favour of resignation. That is why this civic energy must be supported and encouraged.”

The media portrayed the initial civil unrest as a reaction to the 2026 budget, but the root of the agitation lies with the nation relinquishing sovereignty to join the euro. The Bulgarian government resignation is symbolic; true power lies with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

“The decisions of the National Assembly are meaningful when they reflect the will of the people. We want to be where society expects us to be,” Zhelyazkov said, referring to the anti-government protests. “We have no doubt that the government will receive support in the upcoming vote of no confidence. Regardless, the decisions of the National Assembly are important when they reflect the will of the sovereign,” the prime minister said.

There is massive corruption in the Bulgarian government, hence the need to hold seven snap elections after the 2020 uprising. The people will no longer have the ability to elect their representatives.  Citizens have no trust in their government and do not bother with voting, as voter turnout reached only 34.4% in June 2024. Yes, they may elect who rules Bulgaria, but the EU determines the direction the nation must take. Over 6.4 million citizens must convert to the euro on January 1.

Once Bulgaria joins, it will no longer be able to devalue its currency to remain competitive. That’s how small economies adjust in a floating system. But inside the eurozone, you’re stuck. All monetary policy decisions are made by the ECB in Frankfurt, which answers to no elected body. If Bulgaria experiences a downturn, they can’t cut rates or devalue—just like Greece in 2010. They will be told to cut pensions, raise taxes, and accept IMF mandates. That’s not sovereignty.

Bulgaria now has the luxury of taking on more debt through the European Central Bank. It may now join a war on behalf of the EU against a nation with which it had diplomatic ties throughout the years. Bulgaria is the poorest member of the union; Brussels is not going to allow it to sway the course of the EU agenda in any capacity.

Dec 12 2025

A Contrast in American vs British National Security Priorities


Posted originally on CTH on December 11, 2025 | Sundance

Lyndon LaRouche (1922-2019) was a rather eclectic fellow in the world of American politics for several generations. Some of his perspectives were sound and nationalistic, and some of his perspectives slipped into the realm of geopolitical conspiracy theory finding British Imperialism under every rock and blaming Queen Elizabeth II for assassination attempts against him.

Susan Kokinda and Barbara Boyd of Promethean Action continue the LaRouche tradition while smoothing out some of the more outlandish elements the originating political movement was known for. Barbara Boyd is the spokesperson and treasurer of the LaRouche Youth Movement. Boyd’s partner, Susan Kokinda, maintains a belief that eliminating British Imperialism is the objective of President Trump’s America-First policy agenda.  This is where I disagree.

While the outcome of President Trump’s policy does factually lead to the result LaRouche advocated, I strongly doubt “eliminating British imperialism” is the prism through which Donald Trump’s thought process flows.  That said, in the overall picture of American politics, the Kokinda and Boyd analysis of Trump’s opposition is generally accurate.

In their most recent update, Susan Kokinda discusses how President Trump’s recent national security strategy marks a significant departure from over a century of British-influenced American foreign policy.  Their review delves into the geopolitical friction between the U.S. and the UK, particularly regarding their strategies toward Russia and Ukraine.

Mrs. Kokinda underscores the broader clash of worldviews between America-First sovereignty and British-led internationalism, highlighting the latest developments including reactions from Russia and European elites. The episode also examines the opposition Trump faces from both within the U.S. political establishment and British geopolitical strategists and emphasizes the importance of maintaining political support to ensure the success of Trump’s transformative policies.  WATCH:

The divergence between the worldview of the European Union and President Trump is accurately presented as above.  The Ukraine/Russia war serves as a case study in how the two worldviews conflict.  The core of U.K policy and national security strategy continues to view Russia as the biggest threat; the national security outlook by President Trump does not.

On the domestic side of the issue, there are several American elements in direct opposition to the geopolitical trade structure of President Trump.

The Koch PAC seems to have abandoned their use of former South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem since she became President Trump’s Secretary of DHS (Dept of Homeland Security).  Instead, the Koch network is funding Thomas Massie (House) and Rand Paul (Senate) to represent their interests.  MTG is likely to be a beneficiary, and other more traditional GOPe types will also likely benefit from Koch/CoC financing.

Just as the Biden/Obama agenda included the targeting of President Trump for removal (Transition Integrity Project – originating group) in early January 2017, so too did another UniParty stop Trump operation begin in January 2025.  We saw the latest iteration surface in the odd (at the time), narrative surrounding Qatar -vs- Israel.

The ideologically similar GOPe elements within the Sea Island network, tech and traditional Republican party, are all aligned due to opposition to Trump policy. They continue their efforts to divide elements from the larger MAGA network.

The use of the Qatar vs Israel wedge is clear within the billionaire tech/political group, and essentially distillates to 2028 positioning, JD Vance -vs- Ron DeSantis.

As noted by Mrs Kokinda, ultimately the issue boils down to “trillions at stake.”

Dec 10 2025

EU & Zelensky Contemplating Dumping All US Debt If Trump Strikes Deal with Putin


Posted originally on Dec 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Zelensky Ursula
WHY Euro

There is no official public declaration by European Union (or its member states collectively) that commits to such a move. They are discussing this now behind closed doors. Trump needs to consider IMMEDIATELY entering an Executive Order that all EU member state debts MUST be liquidated INSTANTLY!!!!! Any hedge fund that holds EU sovereign debt should be subject to sanctions forthwith. Trump should issue an Executive Order barring any US investment in Ukraine whatsoever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!With the EU seeking to fund war, they will  need to sell debt.

The EU and Ukraine are considering to threaten the United States that if Trump strikes a deal with Putin, they will dump $2.34 trillion in US debt in an effort to create an economic war with the United States to crash the bond market. NO American investment bank should now be allowed to sell ANY Sovereign Debt of any EU Member State. The US should EXIT NATO ASAP!!!!!

If the EU tries to pull this off, Trump MUST cut off all intelligence and money to Ukraine and the EU. Neither wants peace. Let them seal their own fate which will be their destruction. The EU will not survive beyond 2030. It is time for the EU member states to separate from this insanity or watch their youth be sent off to the slaughter. For what? Ukraine?

TRADING_WITH_THE_ENEMY_ACT_OF_1917_2010_US_Code_US_Codes_

Any Investment Bank or Hedge Fund supporting the EU or Ukraine can be sanctioned under these conditions and criminally charged as trading with the enemy! We had a Double Directional Change here in December 2025. Beware, the EU is absolutely desperate. They are going to use the Russian assets of which up to 80% is private Russian citizens – not state assets. We must ask, how many EU leaders also have their hand in the free money pouring into Ukraine with no accountability.

IBEUUS M Array 12 6 25
Dec 10 2025

EU turns to War to cover up a humiliating decline.


Posted originally on Dec 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Hate without risk

COMMENT: 

“When men can hate without risk, their stupidity is easily convinced, the motives supply themselves.”

–Louis-Ferdinand Celine

AF

Euro US

REPLY: That is on point Allen. These European leaders are living in the past. Their history of previous imperial greatness has become the core part of a their view of their nation’s story about itself—a “golden age.” It’s a source of immense cultural pride, artistic achievement, and historical identity. Reconnecting with that past is seen as healing. The establishment of the EU was supposed to defeat the dollar. That failed. Their claims that a combined GDP would exceed the US  never materialized because they are socialists and had to control everything. Their perceived national greatness failed before their eyes and war is now the cover up for a humiliating period of decline.

Hatred without risk
Dec 10 2025

Zelenskyy Says European Counterproposal for Conflict Ceasefire Soon to be Sent to White House


Posted originally on CTH on December 10, 2025 | Sundance |

The entire premise of this interlocutory exchange is bizarre, actually, beyond bizarre when you think about it.

President Trump’s negotiation team worked with Ukraine officials and Russian officials to establish the parameters for a ceasefire proposal. Representatives from the U.S, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner working as moderators for a cessation of hostilities held multiple meetings with high level Ukraine and Russian officials, including Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

As a consequence, President Trump’s team (Rubio, Witkoff and Kushner) have spent hundreds of hours, including nine entire days, over the last two weeks in detailed face-to-face discussions with Ukraine officials.

Zelenskyy then goes to Paris, London, Brussels and Rome, to consult with European leaders, and then has the audacity to say he will present a counterproposal from the Europeans to President Trump.

PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY – “Today, we already discussed with our negotiating team the results of yesterday’s work in London, which was conducted at the level of the National Security Advisors of our European partners. This was agreed upon yesterday at the leadersʼ level.

We are working very actively on all components of potential steps toward ending the war. The Ukrainian and European components are now more developed, and we are ready to present them to our partners in the U.S. Together with the American side, we expect to swiftly make the potential steps as doable as possible.

We are committed to a real peace and remain in constant contact with the United States. And, as our partners in the negotiating teams rightly note, everything depends on whether Russia is ready to take effective steps to stop the bloodshed and prevent the war from reigniting. In the near future, we will be ready to send the refined documents to the United States. Glory to Ukraine!” (SOURCE)

If Zelenskyy is representing Ukraine, then why didn’t Zelenskyy put his proposals into the agreement during two weeks of discussions with the U.S. delegation.

Is Zelenskyy representing Ukraine, or is Zelenskyy representing European stakeholders?

I know, rhetorical I guess…..

In the interim and throughout this process, more young Ukrainian men are dead.

Dec 10 2025

President Trump Gives Extensive Comments on State of Ukraine-Russia Conflict


Posted originally on CTH on December 9, 2025 | Sundance 

President Trump sat down for an extensive interview with Dasha Burns of Politico.  Despite the ideological outlook of Politico, the interview itself was remarkably absent of combative antagonism. The result is a good review of the current positions of President Trump as they relate to the rest of the world.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is the immediate issue that is discussed within the interview.  President Trump answers some direct questions about who is currently most responsible for continuing the conflict and is asked his opinion directly on Ukraine not holding elections.

President Trump notes Russian President Vladimir Putin is in the strongest position within the conflict and carries the strongest leverage into any ceasefire negotiations.  Trump also frames the need for the bloodshed to end with a much greater sense of urgency than any of the EU leaders or Zelenskyy.  Additionally sharing the opinion that Ukraine needs to have an election to showcase the will of the Ukrainian people in the leadership of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  WATCH:

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