Iran on Schedule for the War Cycle


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a Muslim and I have just read you War Cycle report from 2015where you provide your forecast for this crisis we are cascading into. You historical analysis is fair and honest. Most people have no idea of the history of the region no less the divisions in Islam. Your forecast is coming into play. It looks like a countdown for the next year.

I wanted to take the time to express my respect for your world view and how you remain the voice of reason.

ABS

REPLY: I have been a student of history my whole life. But memorizing battles and dates and handing out titles like “The Great” (Magnus) for winning a war to me is the noise. The key to history is understand the patterns and once you see the patterns, it no longer justifies one position against another. I have come to understand Thrasymachus who observed that it did not matter what form of government we lived under, JUSTICE is always defined as the self-interest of government. Once I looked at his observation, it became crystal clear that it also did not apply to merely government, but all aspects of any group that seized power under a variety of labels including religion.

The English Civil War was also supposed to be about religion – Puritans v Catholics. Oliver Cromwell overthrew King Charles I and even beheaded him. He then issued coins calling himself the Lord Protector, but they carried his portrait with an olive wreath as if he too were then king. The Puritans outlawed all sports because that led to cursing, plays for they were lies, Christmas for you should be praying not celebrating, and it became a felony subject to death for kissing you wife in public. Indeed, Thrasymachus hit the nail on the head about 2,000 year before Cromwell – justice is simply the self-interest of those in power.

History repeats BECAUSE the patterns repeat and they are patterns of human reactions. I tried to do a good job in that report on the Middle East. The target date is rapidly approaching. Indeed, we have nearly a year to understand what is taking place.

Make no mistake about it. The majority of the youth in Iran do NOT support the current government in Iran. This also raises the stakes for the current religious regime in Ira will gradually lose power as attitudes change among the younger generations. To this inevitability, Iran becomes a greater risk for starting a war of they face the loss of power and a potential internal revolution. There was the 1979 revolution in Iran which put in place the religious government. The previous revolution took place between 1905 to 1911. It is unlikely that the religious government in Iran will be as strong after 2021 and the country is likely to end up with a completely non-religious government by 2051.

Iran Shoots Down US Drone Wednesday Night NY Time


The news of Iran downing a US drone was circulating in the Middle East before it hit the news wires. It was actually shot down at 7:35 pm New York time on Wednesday night, giving time for the pop in gold. The U.S. Central Command leaders said the attack was “unprovoked” and it took place in international airspace while Iran claims it was over their territory.

2016 Syrian Refugee Mustafa Mousab Alowemer, 21, Arrested During ISIS Inspired Plot To Bomb Christian Church in Pittsburgh…


In August 2016 a Syrian named Mustafa Mousab Alowemer, now 21, entered the U.S. under President Obama’s refugee program.  Today he was arrested in an ISIS plot to bomb a Christian church in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

(Via DOJ) Mustafa Mousab Alowemer, 21, a resident of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, was arrested today based on a federal complaint charging him with one count of attempting to provide material support and resources to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), a designated foreign terrorist organization, and two counts of distributing information relating to an explosive, destructive device, or weapon of mass destruction in relation to his plan to attack a church in Pittsburgh.

The announcement was made by Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers, U.S. Attorney Scott W. Brady for the Western District of Pennsylvania, Assistant Director Michael McGarrity of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division and Special Agent in Charge Robert Jones of the FBI’s Pittsburgh Division.

“Targeting places of worship is beyond the pale, no matter what the motivation,” said Assistant Attorney General Demers. “The defendant is alleged to have plotted just such an attack of a church in Pittsburgh in the name of ISIS. The National Security Division and our partners will continue our efforts to identify and bring to justice individuals in our country who seek to commit violence on behalf of ISIS and other terrorist organizations. I want to thank the agents, analysts, and prosecutors who are responsible for this investigation.”

“Court documents show Mustafa Alowemer planned to attack a church in the name of ISIS, which could have killed or injured many people. Fortunately, his plans were foiled by the full force of the FBI Pittsburgh Joint Terrorism Task Force,” said Assistant Director McGarrity. “The FBI takes threats to churches and other religious institutions extremely seriously and will use all our resources to stop potential terrorist attacks against them.” (read more)

Tom Winter
@Tom_Winter

BREAKING / NBC News: A 21 year old refugee from Syria, who came into the U.S. in August of 2016 has been arrested and charged by the FBI with plotting an attack on a Christian church in Pittsburgh.

More details to come @NBCNews. Reported w/ @PeteWilliamsNBC & @WPXI

Tom Winter
@Tom_Winter

FULL STORY on Alowemer who allegedly recorded a video pledging his allegiance to the leader of ISIS: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/syrian-refugee-charged-plotting-bomb-pennsylvania-church-n1019521 

Syrian refugee charged with plotting to bomb Pennsylvania church

Mustafa Mousab Alowemer, 21, recorded a video of himself pledging an oath of allegiance to the leader of ISIS, court documents say.

nbcnews.com

Report: Former Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Leader Mohamed Morsi Dies in Court…


Mohamed Morsi was Egypt’s leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by President Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, and installed as Egyptian president by extremists during the Islamist Spring.  According to Reuters Morsi collapsed in court today and died:

CAIRO (Reuters) – Ousted former Egyptian Islamist president Mohamed Morsi died on Monday after he fainted in court following a hearing, state television reported.

State television said Morsi, who was 67, was in court for a hearing on charges of espionage emanating from suspected contacts with the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

Mursi was serving a 20-year prison sentence for a conviction arising from the killing of protesters during demonstrations in 2012 and a life sentence for espionage in a case related to the Gulf state of Qatar. (more)

Both President Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton praised Mohamed Morsi when he was ruling Egypt as the chosen representative of The Muslim Brotherhood.

After taking power Morsi immediately opened all the prisons letting the jailed Brotherhood terrorists run free. Then Morsi began jailing his political opponents; he disbanded the court system, and instituted a Sharia compliant constitution while slaughtering hundreds of Coptic Christians.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton praised Morsi – the majority of Egyptian people hated him.

Egyptian military General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was quickly recruited by the people to take over and remove Mohamed Morsi from office.  President el-Sisi stopped the chaos, removed the extremists; exiled the Brotherhood; destroyed Hamas border tunnels into Gaza; began fighting radical Islam, and provided security for all Egyptians, including the Coptic Christians.

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[If you put “Morsi” in the search bar [example], you can read dozens of stories about him and the mayhem he created for the people of Egypt.  Mohamed Morsi was bad news.]

Iran v USA – Oil Tanker Attacks


There are many people claiming this is Tonkin Gulf 2.0 claiming it is a false flag of the USA attacking the oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and using it as an excuse for war with Iran. While the theory may seem to have lived in the conspiracy world, there is so much tension and many moving parts, it is unlikely that such a simplistic account has any validity. True, the U.S. blamed Iran for suspected attacks on two oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, saying this is a campaign of “escalating tensions” in a region crucial to global energy supplies.

What we must understand is this is not the traditional war of conquest as was the case with Hitler and Napoleon. Nobody is into empire building anymore. This is religious dogma based as laid out in The War  Cycle Report. This falls more into the category of a religious war akin to the Protestant v Catholic conflicts that culminated in the English Civil War. This is a religious conflict where Iran believe the region should run the state and Saudi, UAE, for example, believes in the separation of powers.

There is far more incentive for someone in the Middle East to try to start a war than USA. Trump is not really interested in sending in troops as was Dick Cheney with Iraq. If they could get rid of Trump, there would be a puppet in place to pump up the military sending which many would love.

Do not count on this being just Tonkin Gulf 2.0 just yet. There are a lot of moving parts.

U.S. Identifies Iran as Responsible for Two Tanker Ship Attacks in Gulf of Oman Today…


In the early hours of this morning, two vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz towards the Indian Ocean were attacked by unknown entities causing hull breach explosions that rendered the vessels inoperable.  The sailors were evacuated.

The Norwegian owned “Front Altair” (cargo: 75,000 tonnes of naphtha), and the Japanese owned “Kokuka Courageous” (cargo: 25,000 tonnes of methanol) were struck in the Gulf of Oman; the same strategic sea lane where four oil vessels were sabotaged last month.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has identified Iran as the government responsible for the attacks.  [Press Conference Video]

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No doubt Iran feels empowered to attack Western interests partly due to the support expressed by former Secretary of State Kerry and former President Obama.  Both have created an open window for Iran by undermining President Trump.

(Tweet Link)

(Via Daily Mail) […] The Altair had been loaded at a port in the Gulf with a petroleum product known as naphtha, and was on its way to the Far East.

The Altair’s cargo was worth more than $30million, according to estimates from trade sources.

Meanwhile, a shipping broker said the Kokuka, which flies under Panama’s flag, had suffered an explosion after an ‘outside attack’ which may have involved a magnetic mine.

The company operating the ship, which was heading to Singapore, said the attack had caused ‘damage to the ship’s hull starboard side.’

The Kokuka’s 21 crew were picked up by the nearby Vessel Coastal Ace, leaving the tanker adrift and empty after an engine room fire.

One of the crew members was slightly injured in the incident and received first aid on board the Coastal Ace, while the Kokuka’s methanol cargo is said to be intact. (read more)

The oil tanker attacks came as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (left) met Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran today

 

True The Vote Wins Historic $2 Million Settlement Against IRS….


News we might have missed.  Last week Catherine Engelbrecht announced a historic legal victory in her decade long battle against the IRS for targeting her group, True The Vote, as part of the Obama administration’s weaponization program against political opposition.

U.S. District Court Judge Reggie Walton issued a stunning ruling (full pdf below) in favor of True the Vote, and penalized the IRS.  Judge Walton forced the IRS to pay maximum attorney’s fees due to discrimination against the conservative organization that stemmed from the Lois Lerner scandal.  The financial award is likely to exceed $2 million.

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Ms. Engelbrecht gave Breitbart News an interview where she discussed the victory, SEE HERE.

Here’s the ruling:

.Ms. Engelbrecht’s case is actually connected to the political surveillance operation used against presidential candidate Donald Trump.  Factually, the 2010 program to weaponize the IRS looks like the precursor to the 2012 program to weaponize the NSA database.

Political spying 1.0 was the weaponization of the IRS. This is where the term “Secret Research Project” originated as a description from the Obama team. It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller. It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM, until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse:

The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)

Why disks? Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there’s a pre-existing financial crimes unit within the IRS. All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in early spring 2012.

The IRS scandal was never really about the IRS, it was always about the DOJ asking the IRS for the database of information. That is why it was transparently a conflict when the same DOJ was tasked with investigating the DOJ/IRS scandal. Additionally, Obama sent his chief-of-staff Jack Lew to become Treasury Secretary; effectively placing an ally to oversee/cover-up any issues. As Treasury Secretary Lew did just that.

Lesson Learned – It would appear the Obama administration learned a lesson from attempting to gather a large opposition research database operation inside a functioning organization large enough to have some good people that might blow the whistle.

The timeline reflects a few months after realizing the “Secret Research Project” was now worthless (June 2012), they focused more deliberately on a smaller network within the intelligence apparatus and began weaponizing the FBI/NSA database. If our hunch is correct, that is what will be visible in footnote #69:

Additionally, Matt Gaetz appears to have seen “a memo held in the Congressional Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF) that contained previously-undisclosed information involving the Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) and Department of Justice (DOJ).” [LINK]  Which sounds like the MOU in the footnote, and the memo that Trey Gowdy and Jason Chaffetz inquired about.

[2012] Dear General Holder:

Recently, the “Wall Street Journal” (WSJ) reported you granted the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) new powers to store dossiers on United States citizens, even if said citizens are not suspected of any criminal activity.

With these new powers, the NCTC would have the ability to copy entire government databases holding information on flight records, casino-employee lists, the names of Americans hosting foreign-exchange students, as well as other data.

The WSJ goes on to report the new rules allow the NCTC to keep data about innocent United States citizens for up to five years and to analyze it for suspicious patterns of behavior. Previously, both were prohibited.

If the WSJ report is accurate, these new powers represent a sweeping departure from past practices, which barred the NCTC from storing information about ordinary Americans unless a person was a terror suspect or the information sought was related to an investigation.

If the WSJ report is accurate, it raises numerous concerns and questions. As elected Representatives and members of the House Judiciary Committee, we are concerned such sweeping, fundamental changes would be made to existing policy without public input and Congressional approval. Changes, which fundamentally alter the relationship between the government and the governed, should only be made with input from the people by and through their elected Representatives. (more)

Wall Street Journal Report Here

How this all comes together in 2019

Fusion GPS was not hired in April 2016 to research Donald Trump. As shown in the evidence provided by the FISC, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The Obama administration already knew everything about the Trump campaign, and were monitoring everything by exploiting the FISA database.

However, after the NSA alerts in/around March 9th, 2016, and particularly after the April 18th shutdown of contractor access, the Obama intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to create a legal albeit ex post facto justification for the pre-existing surveillance and spy operations. Fusion GPS gave them that justification in the Steele Dossier.

That’s why the FBI small group, which later transitioned into the Mueller team, are so strongly committed to and defending the formation of the Steele Dossier and its dubious content. The Steele Dossier contains the cover-story and justification for the pre-existing surveillance operation.

During a rather innocuous podcast discussion panel April 12th, 2019, one of President Trump’s personal lawyers Jay Sekulow mentioned the FBI had three FISA applications denied by the FISA court in 2016. [Podcast Here – Note comment at 25:05] The denials were always suspected; however, until now no-one in/around the administration has ever confirmed.

If Sekulow is accurate, this adds additional context to the actions of the FBI in the aftermath of Admiral Mike Rogers and an increased urgency in gaining legal justification for surveillance and spy operation unlawfully taking place. A valid FISA warrant would help the FBI cover-up the surveillance. The likely targets were Manafort, Flynn and Papadopoulos…. but it appears the DOJ/FBI were rebuked.

These FISC denials would then initiate institutional panic dependent on the election outcome. An insurance policy would be needed. The Steele Dossier becomes the investigative virus the FBI wanted inside the system. To get the virus into official status, they used the FISA application as the delivery method and injected it into Carter Page. The FBI already knew Carter Page; essentially Carter Page was irrelevant, what they needed was the FISA warrant and the Dossier in the system {Go Deep}.

Fusion GPS was not hired to research Trump, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to give them a plausible justification for already existing surveillance and spy operations.

Fusion-GPS gave them the justification they needed for a FISA warrant with the Steele Dossier. Ultimately that’s why the Steele Dossier is so important; without it, the DOJ and FBI are naked with their FISA-702 abuse.

Parkland SRO Arrested – Child Negligence, Culpable Negligence and Perjury Charges…


The school resource officer, Scot Peterson, who did not respond during the shooting Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School last year, has been arrested on negligence, child neglect and perjury charges.

(NBC6 Miami) […]  Peterson, 56, was arrested in Broward County on seven counts of neglect of a child, three counts of culpable negligence, and one count of perjury, Florida Department of Law Enforcement officials said.

The arrest comes after a 15-month investigation into the actions of law enforcement after the Feb. 14, 2018 shooting at the school that killed 17 students and staffers and left 17 others injured. Peterson was the school resource officer at MSD High School during the shooting.

“The FDLE investigation shows former Deputy Peterson did absolutely nothing to mitigate the MSD shooting that killed 17 children, teachers and staff and injured 17 others,” FDLE Commissioner Rick Swearingen said in a statement. “There can be no excuse for his complete inaction and no question that his inaction cost lives.”  (read more)

CTH previously outlined how Broward County school police officers were primarily positioned to mitigate issues with criminal student engagement.

The Broward County diversionary school discipline program known as the “Promise Program” gained scrutiny after the Parkland shooting left 17 students dead.

The unstable shooter was identified as a prior benefactor of a county school district policy to reduced crime rates by exchanging criminal punishment for school discipline.

Many readers are aware CTH spent almost two years researching this practice in both Miami-Dade and Broward County.  The downstream consequences were predictable when it first began; unfortunately, no-one wanted to accept the warnings – and the corruption is was systemic within the School and Police leadership, there’s was little hope to ever see it change.

The Country The World Says Doesn’t Exist


Published on Jul 7, 2018

Edit: In case it isn’t clear in the video, this is meant to be a story of Artsakh, from the view of Artsakh. It isn’t unemotional geopolitics. The Armenians are in no ways saints, and the Azeri in no way demons. The Azeri refugees forced from their homes in the external lands that Artsakhians took in the war (even against their own internal judgement) for military purposes have every right to be upset and want it back. As I say in every video, please research this all on your own. There is a very deep, nuanced, interesting story to be told from all sides. This one just happens to be from Artsakh. If you would like to visit Artsakh, I’d highly recommend staying with Saro Saryan in Shushi. His family are the living embodiment of the community, fashioned together into a wonderful guest house atmosphere. His 23 year old soldier, diplomat, lawyer son is the focus of our next episode, which I hope you’ll stick around for. Patreon account, for those who care: https://www.patreon.com/rareearth/ove…

Cycle of War & Religion


QUESTION:

Hello Martin,
on Sept 12th 2013 you wrote about the ‘Return of the crusades’. Now, 6 years later, with the massive migrant crisis still ongoing, a lot of people consider leaving Western Europe bc Sharia law is looming everywhere. Mohammed takes the first place for baby names in many countries, sharia law spreads, kindergartens don’t serve pork anymore, Easter festivities in school get canceled bc of Ramadan, rapists and even murderers don’t go to jail bc neither the executive nor the judicative has capacities anymore to even open a trial and so on. At the moment, it looks as if Western Europe will become a caliphate within the next decade or two. With Migrants still flooding the continent and the birth jihad, it seems Europeans/Christians will vanish in the foreseeable future. I would like to know what Socrates has to say about this… will there be a counterstrike? Or a religious war? Right-wing parties rise everywhere, so the Europeans ARE fed up. But is there even enough TIME to turn things around…?

What do the cycles say?

Thx and cheers,

P

ANSWER: Unfortunately, the cycle of religious tension is also due in 2021/2022. The first recorded persecution of Christians took place under Emperor Nero who blamed them for setting the great fire in Rome. The base cycle on a major shift in religion turned up in 1990, which was 224 cycles of 8.6 from 64 AD. Add pi, 31.4 years, and we arrive at 2021/2022. Nevertheless, there was also rising tension with Islam itself. This I laid out in the 2015 Cycle of War report. When the economy turns down, that is when tensions rise. There was the religious war in Christianity known as the Byzantine Iconoclasm, which existed between about 726 and 787 AD. The peak before the war came 72 cycles of 8.6 from the Nero persecution of 64 AD. Then 96 cycles later we come to Martin Luther in 1517 when he posted 95 theses on the church door in the university town of Wittenberg. Cyclically right on time, in 1534 King Henry VIII declared himself to be supreme head of the Church of England. This resulted in a schism with the Papacy and began the events known as the English Reformation.

It appears we are building toward 2021/2022 when things are going to begin to get heated on a religious basis.